Archive for Prospects

Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops and outfielders. Today is the review of the right-handed starters.

Actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Results
3.2 — Anthony DeSclafani, Reds
3.1 — Noah Syndergaard, Mets
2.8 — Lance McCullers, Astros
1.6 — Taylor Jungmann, Brewers
1.6 — Raisel Iglesias, Reds
1.5 — Nate Karns, Rays
1.4 — Chris Bassitt, Athletics
1.4 — Joe Ross, Nationals
1.3 — Chris Heston, Giants

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Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops. Today ! break down the outfield rookie class.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
137 — Randal Grichuk, Cardinals
134 — Michael Conforto, Mets
132 — Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals
132 — Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers
131 — Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
125 — Tommy Pham, Cardinals
124 — Aaron Altherr, Phillies
115 — Joc Pederson, Dodgers

Marc’s Top 5
Jorge Soler, Cubs
Rusney Castillo, Red Sox
Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Steven Souza, Rays
Dalton Pompey, Blue Jays

Honorable Mentions
Mikie Mahtook, Rays
Michael Taylor, Nationals
Jesse Winker, Reds
Byron Buxton, Twins
Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals

I’ve never been a huge fan of Grichuk and that was reflected on my pre-season list (He wasn’t there). I also didn’t expect injuries and disappointing performances to provide as many opportunities for him as they did. We always knew he had immense raw power but he tapped into it surprisingly well in 2015, resulting in a .272 ISO. Unfortunately he swung and missed A LOT (more than 31%) and the .329 OBP is nothing to get excited about. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance in terms of solid overall game.

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Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen. Today, we wrap up the infield with the shortstops.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
133 — Carlos Correa, Astros
128 — Francisco Lindor, Indians
112 — Ketel Marte, Mariners
91 — Tim Beckham, Rays
90 — Addison Russell, Cubs

*Jung-ho Kang was included in the third basemen’s piece.

Marc’s Top 4
Addison Russell, Cubs
Francisco Lindor, Indians
Corey Seager, Dodgers
Deven Marrero, Red Sox

Honorarble Mentions
Hak-Ju Lee, Rays
Tim Anderson, White Sox

The above list of rookie shortstops would be somewhat different if I ranked by WAR, rather than Weights Runs but defence has such little value in fantasy baseball so I focused on offence with Weighted Runs Created. It bears mentioning, though, that many impressive young defensive shortstops entered the game in 2015 — led by Lindor and Russell.

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In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen and of the second basemen. Today, it’s the freshmen at the hot corner.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
151 — Miguel Sano, Twins
136 — Kris Bryant, Cubs
130 — Jung-Ho Kang, Pirates
128 — Maikel Franco, Phillies
116 — Matt Duffy, Giants

Marc’s Top 5
1. Kris Bryant, Cubs
2. Kyle Kubitza, Angels
3. Miguel Sano, Twins
4. Yasmany Tomas, D-Backs
5. Jake Lamb, D-Backs

Honorable Mentions
Colin Moran, Astros
Joey Gallo, Rangers

The 2015 might one day be known as ‘The Year of the Third Basemen’ considering how many impressive rookies took to the hot corner in 2015.

Sano spent most of the year as the Twins’ designated hitter but since he’s a natural third baseman I’ve included him here (He spent nine games at the position in ’15). The rookie doesn’t have quite as well rounded of a game as Kris Bryant but the power is prodigious and he should develop into a 30+ home run guy (if not 40+). The big question with Sano, though, is whether or not he can trim the strikeout rate that surpassed 35% in 2015. His BABIP of almost .400 (because he hits the ball so damn hard) shield the effects of the K-rate. How hard does he hit the ball? He was third in the Majors in percent of hard hit balls behind Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Greg Bird of the Yankees.

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In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I started with the catchers and first basemen last week and today is a review of the second basemen.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
135 — Devon Travis, Blue Jays
119 — Kelby Tomlinson, Giants
105 — Cory Spangenberg, Padres
91 — Tim Beckham, Rays

Marc’s Top 4
1. Jose Peraza, Braves
2. Rob Refsnyder, Yankees
3. Devon Travis, Blue Jays
4. Dilson Herrera, Mets

Honorable Mentions
Alen Hanson, Pirates
Sean Coyle, Red Sox
Tony Kemp, Astros

Travis’ promising rookie season was cut short by injury and he appeared in just 62 games. Despite the stunted season the Jays rookie was still worth 2.3 WAR — mostly due to his unexpected offensive contribution but he was also better than expected on defence. Still, his injury opened a door for Ryan Goins to absolutely dazzle on defence and even his bat got better as the year progressed.

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On or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I started with the catchers earlier this week and today is a review of the first basemen.

Actual Isolated Slugging Results
.268 — Greg Bird, Yankees
.218 — Justin Bour, Marlins
.217 — Travis Shaw, Red Sox
.185 — Ben Paulsen, Rockies
.172 — Mark Canha, Athletics

Marc’s Top 4
1. D.J. Peterson, Mariners
2. Maikel Franco, Phillies*
3. Josh Bell, Pirates
4. Christian Walker, Orioles

Honorable Mentions
Greg Bird, Yankees
Travis Shaw, Red Sox

Looking at the Top 4… I whiffed badly, save for Franco and I’ll talk more about him in the run down of the third basemen. I will say this, though: His spotty defence in the minors suggested he would see time primarily at first base when he entered The Show but continued poor performances from Cody Asche kept the rookie at the hot corner in 2015.

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This past season may end up going down as the year of the prospect. So many good rookies got their promotion to the majors like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Noah Syndergaard, and Lance McCullers. It is time to look at finding the next batch of rookies. By using just a handful of minor league stats, I have created basic prospect rankings for 2016.

I have played around with prospect rankings for a while and just recently publish my 2015 ZOBRIST rankings which looked at older potential hitter breakouts. I have had some personal player rankings using just the player’s stats, but nothing worth publishing. Well, I finally took the few step forward by stealing some ideas from a couple of my fellow writers. First, I was able to add position values to the rankings after helping Carson Cistulli work on his minor league WAR values. The final piece came after reading a recent article by Tony Blengino at ESPN where he gives credit to the player’s age compared to the level’s average age.

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In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 — starting at the catcher’s position.

Marc’s Top 5
1. Andrew Susac, Giants
2. Jorge Alfaro, Rangers
3. Christian Bethancourt, Braves
4. Blake Swihart, Red Sox
5. Austin Barnes, Dodgers

Honorable Mentions:
Kevin Plawecki, Mets
Austin Hedges, Padres
James McCann, Tigers

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
110 — Roberto Perez, Indians
99 — J.R. Murphy, Yankees
91 — Blake Swihart, Red Sox
91 — Andrew Susac, Giants
86 — J.T. Realmuto, Marlins
85 — James McCann, Tigers

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Carson Smith, RHP: I was a huge proponent of Smith prior to the 2015 season but even I was surprised by his raging success. The right-hander is an absolute ground-ball-inducing machine and he can miss more than his fair share of bats too — as witnessed by his 92 Ks in 70 innings pitched in 2015 in the Majors. As a result of those overpowering results, the 25-year-old hurler allowed just 49 hits and took over the Mariners’ closer’s role. He should return to the role in 2016 and his approach should help him find success for years to come, if he can stay healthy.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Noah Syndergaard, RHP: The Mets knew they were getting a talented arm when they traded R.A. Dickey to Toronto in late 2012 but he’s perhaps been even better than advertised. Just 23, he pitched 150 innings in the big leagues in 2015 and kept base runners to a minimum with just 126 hits allowed. The man nicknamed Thor also displayed outstanding control and held hitters to just 31 walks. On the down side, he was touched up for 19 home runs because he was always around the strike zone and struggled with his command at times. If his secondary stuff continues to improve there is no reason why he can’t develop into a No. 1 stud for the Mets.

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