Prospect Positional Review: Third Basemen

In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen and of the second basemen. Today, it’s the freshmen at the hot corner.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
151 — Miguel Sano, Twins
136 — Kris Bryant, Cubs
130 — Jung-Ho Kang, Pirates
128 — Maikel Franco, Phillies
116 — Matt Duffy, Giants

Marc’s Top 5
1. Kris Bryant, Cubs
2. Kyle Kubitza, Angels
3. Miguel Sano, Twins
4. Yasmany Tomas, D-Backs
5. Jake Lamb, D-Backs

Honorable Mentions
Colin Moran, Astros
Joey Gallo, Rangers

The 2015 might one day be known as ‘The Year of the Third Basemen’ considering how many impressive rookies took to the hot corner in 2015.

Sano spent most of the year as the Twins’ designated hitter but since he’s a natural third baseman I’ve included him here (He spent nine games at the position in ’15). The rookie doesn’t have quite as well rounded of a game as Kris Bryant but the power is prodigious and he should develop into a 30+ home run guy (if not 40+). The big question with Sano, though, is whether or not he can trim the strikeout rate that surpassed 35% in 2015. His BABIP of almost .400 (because he hits the ball so damn hard) shield the effects of the K-rate. How hard does he hit the ball? He was third in the Majors in percent of hard hit balls behind Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Greg Bird of the Yankees.

Despite opening the year in the minors, Bryant managed to get into 151 big league games and was probably one of the Top 5 hitters in the National League in 2015. He did a little bit of everything and wasn’t just your prototypical hulking slugger. He hit 26 home runs, stolen 13 bases, walked 11.8% of the time and even played better-than-expected defence. And he fell just one RBI short of the magical 100 mark. His only real blemish is his massive strikeout rate (more than 30%) but his production more than outweighs the swing-and-misses. Bryant should be a fantasy stud for years to come, and challenge Josh Donaldson as the best third baseman in the game.

Kang’s offensive contributions were a surprise to almost everyone — no doubt including the Pirates. He was worth just shy of 4 wins for Pittsburgh and might have gotten there if not for a nasty knee injury suffered in September. There were doubts about his ability to translate his power numbers to the MLB after a number of successful campaigns in Korea. He responded to the criticism by slugging 16 home runs and showing a well-rounded game (outside of an aggressive approach that led to just 28 walks and 99 strikeouts). Kang also provides fantasy managers with a little added value due to his versatility. He split his time between third base and shortstop in 2015, and he should be eligible at both positions in most fantasy leagues entering 2016.

You’ll note that Franco is missing from the rankings above but that’s because I had him on the first basemen list (ranked second). I fully expected the Phillies to cut bait with Ryan Howard by midseason and install the rookie — but the club instead tired of Cody Asche’s underwhelming play at third. Just 22 when he arrived in the Majors in 2015, Franco went on a tear and showed a solid approach at the plate for a young player — striking out just 15.5% of the time and taking a respectable number of walks. He hit 14 home runs and his 22 doubles in 80 games suggest there is more pop to come once he learns to get a little more lift. The biggest downside to Franco’s game continues to be his defence and, once Howard is gone, the Dominican native will no doubt shift across the diamond (hurting his fantasy value a bit at that point). For now, though, he should be both third and first base eligible in some fantasy leagues in 2016.

Like with Kang, I missed on Duffy — who was supremely under-appreciated entering 2015. Replacing fan-favorite Pablo Sandoval, he outperformed the outgoing third baseman in most categories and bettered him in WAR 4.9 to -2.0 (yes negative) while making about $16.5 million less in salary. Duffy doesn’t have the raw power that the other guys on the above list have but hit more than his fair share of extra base hits. He led the impressive rookie rookie class in hits (169) and was a perfect 12-for-12 in stolen bases. His approach at the plate, although resulting in a low number of walks, had him make a lot of contact and come close to hitting .300.

I missed badly on Kubitza who looked like he would get a shot at third base for the Braves in 2015. But then the club traded him to the Angels and he fell in line behind David Freese. The rookie has an interesting profile — with lots of walks and some stolen bases — but he also strikes out a lot and will probably be better suited to a part-time role in The Show. Lamb — whom I’m a big fan of — was hindered by an injury early in the year, which opened the door for Tomas to steal some playing time but the latter player was a terrible hitter (and fielder) in 2015.