This past season may end up going down as the year of the prospect. So many good rookies got their promotion to the majors like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Noah Syndergaard, and Lance McCullers. It is time to look at finding the next batch of rookies. By using just a handful of minor league stats, I have created basic prospect rankings for 2016.

I have played around with prospect rankings for a while and just recently publish my 2015 ZOBRIST rankings which looked at older potential hitter breakouts. I have had some personal player rankings using just the player’s stats, but nothing worth publishing. Well, I finally took the few step forward by stealing some ideas from a couple of my fellow writers. First, I was able to add position values to the rankings after helping Carson Cistulli work on his minor league WAR values. The final piece came after reading a recent article by Tony Blengino at ESPN where he gives credit to the player’s age compared to the level’s average age.

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In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 — starting at the catcher’s position.

Marc’s Top 5
1. Andrew Susac, Giants
2. Jorge Alfaro, Rangers
3. Christian Bethancourt, Braves
4. Blake Swihart, Red Sox
5. Austin Barnes, Dodgers

Honorable Mentions:
Kevin Plawecki, Mets
Austin Hedges, Padres
James McCann, Tigers

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
110 — Roberto Perez, Indians
99 — J.R. Murphy, Yankees
91 — Blake Swihart, Red Sox
91 — Andrew Susac, Giants
86 — J.T. Realmuto, Marlins
85 — James McCann, Tigers

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Carson Smith, RHP: I was a huge proponent of Smith prior to the 2015 season but even I was surprised by his raging success. The right-hander is an absolute ground-ball-inducing machine and he can miss more than his fair share of bats too — as witnessed by his 92 Ks in 70 innings pitched in 2015 in the Majors. As a result of those overpowering results, the 25-year-old hurler allowed just 49 hits and took over the Mariners’ closer’s role. He should return to the role in 2016 and his approach should help him find success for years to come, if he can stay healthy.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Noah Syndergaard, RHP: The Mets knew they were getting a talented arm when they traded R.A. Dickey to Toronto in late 2012 but he’s perhaps been even better than advertised. Just 23, he pitched 150 innings in the big leagues in 2015 and kept base runners to a minimum with just 126 hits allowed. The man nicknamed Thor also displayed outstanding control and held hitters to just 31 walks. On the down side, he was touched up for 19 home runs because he was always around the strike zone and struggled with his command at times. If his secondary stuff continues to improve there is no reason why he can’t develop into a No. 1 stud for the Mets.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Roberto Osuna, RHP: The Jays received significant contributions from two rookies in 2015: second baseman Devon Travis, and Osuna. The former’s second half of the year was ruined by a cyst in his shoulder, which wasn’t discovered until exploratory surgery. The latter opened the year in lower leverage situations but quickly assumed the closer’s role when another rookie (later traded to Colorado) Miguel Castro faltered and got hurt. Osuna, 20, showed an advanced feel and understanding of pitching — as well as a fearlessness that cannot be taught — but he still experienced freshman hiccups and was homer prone at times.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Washington Nationals
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays

The Graduate: Justin Bour, 1B: Talk about coming out of nowhere. Bour wasn’t expected to be much of a contributor in 2015 but he ended up slugging more than 20 homers for The Fish. His OPS of .809 was third on the team and he led with 71 RBI. Miami popped prep first baseman Josh Naylor in the first round of the 2015 draft but he’s at least four years away from The Show so Bour has some time to keep the position warm if he continues to produce like he did in ’15 (at a low cost).

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Steven Souza, OF: All kinds of eyebrows were raised (including my own) when the Rays gave up on Will Myers and replaced him with the overaged-rookie Souza. The 26-year-old rookie struggled to hit for average in 2015 because of a massive strikeout rate (34.6%) but he walked more than his fair share and also hit for power; he’s currently third on the team in home runs behind Evan Longoria and the surprising Logan Forsythe — and second on the team in Isolated Power (ISO) behind Tim Beckham. So, he wasn’t the breakout player the Rays were probably hoping for but he’s been more valuable than one might expect by looking at this batting average.

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A couple of years ago for FG+, I created a minor league rating stat for hitters called ZOBRIST. It looks for hitters who were off prospect ranking lists and showed a propensity to control the strike zone and hit for power in the upper minors. It aims to find such untouted hitters such as Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, and Kole Calhoun. I ran it after the 2014 season and didn’t have the best of luck picking out some non-prospects (it did love Mookie Betts). Well, it is time to run it again for some 2016 unheralded sleepers.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Washington Nationals
New York Yankees

The Graduate: Maikel Franco, 3B: A wrist injury may have ended Maikel Franco’s season early (He hasn’t played since Aug. 11) but he adapted more quickly to the Majors in his debut than I expected — at least at the plate. He significantly out-played incumbent third baseman Cody Asche and even out-performed Ryan Howard — who he’ll eventually supplant at first base. Fellow rookie Odubel Herrera was worth more in terms of WAR (3.0 to 1.3) but Franco was superior in wRC+ (weighted runs created — 125 to 107). It may not be a stretch to call the third base prospect the best hitter on the 2015 Phillies. On defence, though, Franco struggled as expected and will no doubt move from third to first once the Phillies decide to cut bait with Howard.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Luis Severino, RHP: New York did not rely overly heavily on rookies in the early stages of 2015 but there have been some key freshmen performances down the stretch. With injuries to Mark Teixeira and Nathan Eovaldi, players like Greg Bird and Severino have emerged. The right-handed hurler has had a meteoric rise considering he was in Rookie Ball in 2013. In eight MLB starts, he’s averaging more than nine strikeouts per nine innings and has a 3.12 ERA. On the downside, he’s been touched up for six home runs (after allowing just seven in his four minor league seasons). Another thing to keep an eye on with Severino is his workload. After pitching a career high 113.1 innings in 2014, he’s already up above 142 in 2015 with the playoffs yet to come.

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