Archive for Prospects

I’m always torn when setting a draft date for a fantasy league, particularly a redraft one. Most people I play with generally want the draft to be as close to the start of the regular season as possible, which makes sense – the longer you wait, the more information becomes available, and the more certainty players have, especially when it comes to playing-time estimates.

Depending on your level of risk-seeking, the depth of the league, and your confidence in finding early-season waiver-wire sleepers, an earlier draft might be your preference. It’s certainly mine. In those cases, I’m comfortable using picks in the later rounds on sleepers who may or may not make a team, trusting that if they wind up optioned to the minor leagues (or designated for assignment, as it were), I’ll be able to plug someone in out of the free-agent bin comparable to a “floor” pick I could have otherwise used that selection on.

The longer you wait to do your draft, the less opportunity there is to take those playing-time-uncertain fliers. Either those players will be deemed to be without a job, or others will have grown wise to their hold on a job, bidding the price up.

My favorite example to illustrate the impact of draft timing this year is Trea Turner, the No. 2 prospect of the potential NL East-champion Washington Nationals.
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Keeper leagues are fun. But one of the hardest things to predict is rookie pitching performances because there are so damn many moving parts on a big league staff. Below are three arms that have very high ceilings but no clear path to a big league job this April. Still, their talents suggest they could be impact players for their respective clubs in 2016.

Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is loaded with young bats but the club has yet to see the fruits of its (development) labor on the mound. That could change if Berrios impresses the coaching staff enough to break camp with the big league club. Just 21, the Puerto Rico native made 12 starts in Triple-A during the second half of the year. In total, he threw 166.1 innings — a fairly large number for a young arm so he could shoulder a respectable workload in his freshman year. Although he has a modest frame and solid control, Berrios should not be confused with a soft-tosser or command artist. He has a firm fastball and could be an impact player for the Twins in short order. ETA: May

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Spring has sprung and a number of prospects are already turning heads in their respective camps. Today, we’ll have a look at some of the early studs.

Ozhaino Albies, SS, Braves: Just 19, Albies has already appeared in eight spring training games with the Braves. And by all accounts, he’s turning heads and upping his value every day. Perhaps the most impressive part of the youngster’s games has been the amount of contact — he’s struck out just two times in 17 at-bats. It’s easy to see why he’s hit more than .300 in each of his first two pro seasons. Albies can’t legally buy a beer in the U.S. but he could reach Double-A at some point in 2016 and could be in the Majors as soon as 2017. With fellow shortstop Darby Swanson (the 2015 first overall draft pick) also in the system now after an off-season deal with Arizona, the future up the middle in Atlanta looks incredibly bright. ETA: Mid-2017

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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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Below is the prospects installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher/Starting Pitcher

In Ottoneu, the prospect game is a bit different than in other fantasy leagues.  Ottoneu is not quite a dynasty, where you can stash players forever. But it’s a bit deeper than your average keeper league, and you can reap substantial benefit over a few years if you can score a hit on a top prospect. The rankings below reflect this dynamic – each of us has ranked our top 50 prospects according to a combination of his talent, proximity to MLB, and risk. As with our positional rankings, we’ve included each of our individual rankings, and a composite ranking that represents the average value we place on each player. Unlike our positional ranks, though, we’ve simply ranked our prospects from 1-50. It’s up to you (and your league’s market!) to determine how much of your budget you want to invest in prospects, depending on your team’s situation.

Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. “NR” indicates that the player was not ranked in one of our individual top 50 prospect lists. Consider this your early, subject to change, cheat sheet when you’re determining which prospects to target in your auction.

We can be reached on twitter as follows:

Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber

Key:
AVG. – The average of our four rankings (for the purposes of this exercise “NR” was calculated as a ranking of 55)
Split – Difference from highest rank to lowest rank

2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – Prospects

Name	Team	Pos	Justin	Joe	Tom	Trey	AVG.	Split
Corey Seager	Dodgers	SS	1	1	1	1	1	0
Lucas Giolito	Nationals	SP	3	5	2	2	3	3
J.P. Crawford	Phillies	SS	2	4	4	3	3.25	2
Nomar Mazara	Rangers	OF	8	2	3	5	4.5	6
Byron Buxton	Twins	OF	5	10	6	4	6.25	6
Julio Urias	Dodgers	SP	4	6	8	8	6.5	4
Steven Matz	Mets	SP	15	3	7	6	7.75	12
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	SP	6	9	14	11	10	8
A.J. Reed	Astros	1B	14	8	10	9	10.25	6
Joey Gallo	Rangers	OF	18	13	5	7	10.75	13
Yoan Moncada	Red Sox	2B	10	19	9	10	12	10
Jose Berrios	Twins	SP	11	11	17	13	13	6
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	SP	9	17	18	12	14	9
Orlando Arcia	Brewers	SS	7	12	28	15	15.5	21
Trea Turner	Nationals	SS	13	14	13	23	15.75	10
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	OF	20	15	16	16	16.75	5
Dansby Swanson	Braves	SS	12	23	23	17	18.75	11
Blake Snell	Rays	SP	23	7	33	14	19.25	26
Jose De Leon	Dodgers	SP	29	16	21	20	21.5	13
Brendan Rodgers	Rockies	SS	25	34	12	19	22.5	22
Rafael Devers	Red Sox	3B	17	26	27	22	23	10
Andrew Benintendi	Red Sox	OF	24	27	24	18	23.25	9
Bradley Zimmer	Indians	OF	35	20	19	21	23.75	16
Franklin Barreto	Athletics	SS	19	25	20	33	24.25	14
Nick Williams	Phillies	OF	33	28	11	26	24.5	22
Austin Meadows	Pirates	OF	27	21	29	25	25.5	8
Brett Phillips	Brewers	OF	28	22	22	34	26.5	12
Manuel Margot	Padres	OF	16	24	32	39	27.75	23
Alex Bregman	Astros	SS	21	32	34	28	28.75	13
Aaron Judge	Yankees	OF	45	31	15	27	29.5	30
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	31	29	31	29	30	2
Trevor Story	Rockies	SS	NR	18	26	24	30.75	8
Sean Manaea	Athletics	SP	38	30	30	31	32.25	8
Max Kepler	Twins	OF	36	33	35	30	33.5	6
David Dahl	Rockies	OF	34	39	25	40	34.5	15
Gary Sanchez	Yankees	C	41	35	36	35	36.75	6
Josh Bell	Pirates	1B	48	37	37	32	38.5	16
Tim Anderson	White Sox	SS	22	49	38	47	39	27
Sean Newcomb	Braves	SP	30	44	42	41	39.25	14
Clint Frazier	Indians	OF	44	42	40	43	42.25	4
Ozhaino Albies	Braves	SS	26	38	NR	NR	43.5	12
Ryan Mcmahon	Rockies	3B	43	45	43	45	44	2
Victor Robles	Nationals	OF	50	40	39	49	44.5	11
Gleyber Torres	Cubs	SS	32	46	NR	46	44.75	14
Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	OF	42	36	48	NR	45.25	12
Robert Stephenson	Reds	SP	46	NR	45	36	45.5	10
Hunter Renfroe	Padres	OF	NR	NR	44	38	48	6
Jose Peraza	Reds	2B	37	47	NR	NR	48.5	10
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	SP	NR	43	41	NR	48.5	2
Jorge Mateo	Yankees	SS	40	NR	47	NR	49.25	7
Jonathan Gray	Rockies	SP	47	NR	NR	42	49.75	5
Brandon Drury	Diamondbacks	2B/3B	NR	NR	46	44	50	2
Cody Reed	Reds	SP	NR	NR	NR	37	50.5	0
Javier Guerra	Padres	SS	39	NR	NR	NR	51	0
Anthony Alford	Blue Jays	OF	NR	41	NR	NR	51.5	0
Francis Martes	Astros	SP	NR	50	NR	48	52	2
Anderson Espinoza	Red Sox	SP	NR	48	NR	NR	53.25	0
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	SP	49	NR	NR	NR	53.5	0
Willy Adames	Rays	SS	NR	NR	49	NR	53.5	0
Carson Fulmer	White Sox	SP	NR	NR	50	NR	53.75	0
Dillon Tate	Rangers	RP	NR	NR	NR	50	53.75	0

We’ve been running a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond for a few weeks now. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

Today, we take our third and final look at freshman outfielders.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Outfielders (1 of 3)
Outfielders (2 of 3)

More Names to Know:

Brandon Nimmo, Mets: There’s no room at the inn in New York so Nimmo will no doubt open the year in Triple-A. He’s also been rehabbing a foot injury, which doesn’t help his case to open the year in the majors. Nimmo, 23, needs some more polish anyway. He hasn’t shown much power or stolen base acumen so his fantasy value is tied almost solely to his ability to hit for average and his ability to get on base. He’ll likely need an injury occur — or Michael Conforto to fall on his face — to see any significant playing time in 2016.

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We’ve been running a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond for a few weeks now. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

The outfield freshmen class has a chance to be a really strong group this year, although there are a lot of questions marks in terms of playing time. Last week we looked at the players with the best shots at regular playing time. This week — in two parts — we’re looking at the bigger questions marks — although they’re outfielders that could still have a fantasy impact in 2016.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Outfielders (1 of 3)

Names to Know:

Anthony Alford, Blue Jays: With Jose Bautista rumored to be after $150 million over five years with his next free agent contract, Toronto will likely be looking for a new right-fielder in 2017. Alford, an outfielder just so happens to also be the Jays’ top prospect and finished last year in Double-A. With a little more seasoning at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, he could be ready for some time in the Majors before the year is out. And with the breakdown of a deal that would have seen oft-injured Michael Saunders leave town (for Jay Bruce) the Jays will no doubt have to tap into their outfield depth in the coming year. Eventually, Alford could be a four- or five-tool talent — and should easily top 30 steals in a season.

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We’ve been running a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond for a few weeks now. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

This class of freshmen outfielders has a chance to be a really strong group this year, although there are a lot of questions marks in terms of playing time. Today, we’ll look at the players with the best shots at regular playing time. Next week, we’ll look at the bigger questions marks — although they’re outfielders that could still have a fantasy impact in 2016.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops

Top Targets:

Byron Buxton, Twins: This former top pick had a tough MLB debut in 2015 but retained his rookie eligibility and will try and use last year’s experience as a springboard to bigger and better things. He’s all but assured of a starting gig in center field on opening day thanks to the off-season trade of Aaron Hicks. If he can get his contact issues ironed out, Buxton has a massive ceiling and could develop into a five-tool talent in a very talented (but young) lineup. The speed value will show up first, followed by the batting average, and then the power.

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You’ve just signed up to play Ottoneu – now what?

Ottoneu is growing, and while you’re going to see a lot of ink spilled here on RotoGraphs about this premier fantasy game, the learning curve for rookies can be a little steep.  Below are ten critical tips you should consider when embarking on your first Ottoneu fantasy baseball season.  What follows is based on the assumption that you’ve either joined an existing Ottoneu league or are creating a new league and are now preparing to draft in your first spring auction.

1) Join the Ottoneu Community

One of the best aspects of Ottoneu is the massive contingent of game players discussing all things baseball (and football) 24/7/365.  You can find the most active Ottoneu gamers on the official community site and on Slack. Complementing the already feature-rich platform, the Ottoneu community brings all owners together in one place to crowdsource player information, trade feedback, auction tips, keep/cut decisions, enhanced league communications, and a forum for recruiting new league owners.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu (yet), the community is a goldmine of daily baseball dialogue, strategy, and advice, and it also the perfect place to dip your toe in if you have any interest in learning more about playing and joining Ottoneu.  When you do play Ottoneu, you’ll want to get acquainted with the community as soon as possible, as it is an excellent resource for new Ottoneu players.

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Below is the Outfield installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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