Archive for Prospects

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Kyle Barraclough (RHP): The Marlins didn’t debut much in the way of young talent in 2016 but Barraclough came out of nowhere to earn more than 2.0 WAR as a member of Miami’s bullpen. The 26-year-old right-hander was originally a seventh round pick of the Cardinals back in 2012. He showed swing-and-miss stuff in the minors but never consistently found the plate — and much of that was true at the big league level in ’16. Barraclough still walked more than five batters per nine innings but he also whiffed 14 per — in 75 games. It will be interesting to see if the huge workload will come back to haunt the Fish in the form of DL time for the young hurler. He has high-leverage potential if he can ever find the plate on a semi-consistent basis.

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A few days ago, I made my first attempt at trying to determine a pitcher’s value knowing their pitch grades. Since it was published, I have made some adjustments to the pitch grading scale. With the new scale in place, I have been working on comparing grades a pitcher previously received to their actual performance. The results have been extremely disappointing.

In the original article, created a framework to grade individual pitches with an ERA equivalent value (pERA) and a scouting grade on each pitch. While I liked the overall framework, one part really bothered me and I will address the issue first.

The change was to put some consistency in pitch grades, especially with fastballs. The problem was that a pitcher’s fastball is getting graded because of its velocity, but that velocity changes depending on if the pitcher was a starter or reliever. Relievers can really ramp up their velocity when moving to the bullpen.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tommy Josephs (1B): It looked like Joseph’s days as a top prospect were over when injuries (concussions) forced him out from behind the plate and to first base. It just didn’t look like he would be able to produce enough power to warrant a full-time gig at an offensively-demanding position. Then he went and hit 21 home runs in 107 big league games in 2016 as a rookie. Now, his season wasn’t without flaws (such as his on-base percentage) but he’s good enough for the Phillies to finally kick incumbent first baseman Ryan Howard to the curb. Joseph, 25, has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order guy for the Phillies for at least a few years until something better comes along.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Steven Matz (LHP): The good news is that Matz had a solid freshman year in the Majors. The bad news is that he suffered through a litany of ailments and ultimately went under the knife for a bone spur in his throwing elbow. All signs point to him being healthy at the beginning of his sophomore year but some caution has to be had after a shoulder issue also caused him issues in 2016. The young lefty shows good command and control of a four-pitch mix — including an above-average heater — so he has the potential to develop into a No. 2/3 starter if he can avoid the trainer’s table.

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When I started this series which attempts to determine the projected fantasy value for prospects, I knew today’s step would be the hardest. The issue was converting various pitch grades (and control) into a workable framework for a pitcher’s overall production value. I thought I may not end up with a workable answer, but the following results have promise beyond just grading pitches.

I was able to piece together work from various articles and gave each pitch a grade based on the ERA scale. Combining per-pitch-ERA’s with a control value, it looks like we can estimate a pitcher’s overall value.

A pitching prospect is usually given a value on each of their pitches and a command and/or control grade. For example, the MLB.com’s grades for their top rated pitcher, Lucas Giolito, are:

Pitch: Grade
Fastball: 80
Curveball: 70
Changeup: 55
Control: 55

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Chris Devenski (RHP): The Astors saw a wave of high-ceiling, young talent reach the Majors in 2016 including Alex Bregman, A.J. Reed, Michael Feliz and Joe Musgrove but it was the under-appreciated Devenski that arguably had the biggest impact on the big league club with a whopping 2.8 WAR accumulated from (mostly) the bullpen. Devenski, 25, isn’t overpowering but he has strong command/control which makes his average heater play up. And it sets up his plus-plus changeup well. The Astros will no doubt be tempted to try the right-hander in a starting role in 2017 but he appears well suited for the pen and had a 1.61 ERA as a reliever versus 4.01 as a starter (five starts). He also did his best work out of the pen soaking up innings in low leverage situations.

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The fantasy baseball season has closed, but the game of Ottoneu continues long into the off-season (one of the hallmarks of its year-round appeal).  Following Justin’s take on what happened with some of the best teams in Ottoneu this year, I’ll focus today on how one team mastered this game, presenting you with an interview from the of the 2016 Ottoneu Champions League winner, Brent Daily.

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It’s not prospect season yet. It is not even close to prospect season, but I will go ahead and provide some prospect rankings for people use as they make keeper decisions and with early season drafts. As much as I a respect and use many of these sources, I do like the option of having several sources to compare to get a player’s overall skill set. I am always looking for people to talk about the flaws as most people only mention the good stuff. With just a couple of lists currently out, I had to create a few of mine own. I will start with the more traditional rankings and then move on to some I created.

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I will continue to help define how to value a prospect for fantasy purposes. Last week, I examined how major league position players’ production lines up with the standard scouting grades. Today, I go the other way and look at how graded prospects perform in the majors.

I believe I am making this study about two years too soon. I would love for there to be more MLB information after the player received his grades and his 4-5 year production. I don’t have that luxury right now. I feel any answer I come up with will be a nice anchoring point but will need to be adjusted later.

To do this study, I took the grades given by Baseball America (2011 to 2014) and MLB.com (2013 to 2014). With each of these players, I looked at those who had 300 plate appearances in their career. With this fairly encompassing group, I would only able to match of 118 seasons. In some of these cases, the same player was compared. For example, both BA and MLB had their own 2013 grades for Xander Boegaerts. Like I said, a person can shoot about 20 different holes in this study, but I am just working with what I have been given so far.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Jefry Marte (IF-OF): I can remember writing about Marte five or six years ago back when he was in the low minors as a Mets third base prospect. Three organizations later and the raw-but-toolsy prospect finally made The Show and had a nifty little season. Playing multiple positions for the Angels (1B, 3B, LF), Marte produced with the bat and hit 15 home runs in just 258 at-bats. He’s still overly-aggressive in his approach (15-59 BB-K rate) but the power will play and he produced a 114 wRC+ — above league average at some offensively-demanding positions. Just 25, Marte may have earned himself some more playing time in 2017 — especially if he can handle third base — but I think he’s better suited to a part-time role.

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