It’s not prospect season yet. It is not even close to prospect season, but I will go ahead and provide some prospect rankings for people use as they make keeper decisions and with early season drafts. As much as I a respect and use many of these sources, I do like the option of having several sources to compare to get a player’s overall skill set. I am always looking for people to talk about the flaws as most people only mention the good stuff. With just a couple of lists currently out, I had to create a few of mine own. I will start with the more traditional rankings and then move on to some I created.

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I will continue to help define how to value a prospect for fantasy purposes. Last week, I examined how major league position players’ production lines up with the standard scouting grades. Today, I go the other way and look at how graded prospects perform in the majors.

I believe I am making this study about two years too soon. I would love for there to be more MLB information after the player received his grades and his 4-5 year production. I don’t have that luxury right now. I feel any answer I come up with will be a nice anchoring point but will need to be adjusted later.

To do this study, I took the grades given by Baseball America (2011 to 2014) and MLB.com (2013 to 2014). With each of these players, I looked at those who had 300 plate appearances in their career. With this fairly encompassing group, I would only able to match of 118 seasons. In some of these cases, the same player was compared. For example, both BA and MLB had their own 2013 grades for Xander Boegaerts. Like I said, a person can shoot about 20 different holes in this study, but I am just working with what I have been given so far.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Jefry Marte (IF-OF): I can remember writing about Marte five or six years ago back when he was in the low minors as a Mets third base prospect. Three organizations later and the raw-but-toolsy prospect finally made The Show and had a nifty little season. Playing multiple positions for the Angels (1B, 3B, LF), Marte produced with the bat and hit 15 home runs in just 258 at-bats. He’s still overly-aggressive in his approach (15-59 BB-K rate) but the power will play and he produced a 114 wRC+ — above league average at some offensively-demanding positions. Just 25, Marte may have earned himself some more playing time in 2017 — especially if he can handle third base — but I think he’s better suited to a part-time role.

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Today it starts. I am going to try to find an easier way to take current prospect evaluations and turn them into usable information for fantasy owners. Since none of the prospect information is far from perfect, the following will be an imperfect science, but hopefully, some of the prospect guesswork can be removed. The hope is to eventually see a prospect’s grade and/or ranking and have an idea of what type of production to expect from the player. Additionally, I plan on having a method of taking prospect grades and comparing it to present major leaguers.

From the little work I have done, I find it is so much easier to work with hitters versus the pitchers. I am going to start with them for a couple of weeks getting a decent groundwork done with them. When I get to the pitchers, the work is going to be a little slower moving as I translate pitch grades to a players value.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Edwin Diaz (RHP): I was huge fan of Diaz entering the 2016 but I certainly didn’t envision this type of impact being made so early in his career. I also fully expected him to be a starter at the big league level but the Mariners deserve huge credit for seeing the potential in a bullpen role for the young Puerto Rican. Diaz, 22, was absolutely dominant in his debut with a strikeout rate of 15.33 K/9 (second in the majors just behind Dellin Betances) and walk rate of 2.61 BB/9. The rare control/power mix is reminiscent of Andrew Miller or Kenley Jansen and suggests that Diaz could be among the top high-leverage relievers in baseball for years to come.

The Riser: Tyler O’Neill (OF): Just 21, O’Neill was a third round draft pick out of a British Columbia high school back in 2013 and he’s improved by leaps and bounds since then to become one of the Top 5 outfield prospects in the game. He showed the ability to make adjustments and, although his power didn’t increase between 2015 and ’16, he saw his walk rate jump from 6.5% to 10.8% — and he even trimmed his strikeout rate a bit (although it remains high). He has a strong arm suitable for right-field but his instincts in the field are modest so he might end up in left field. Either way, he has the power to be an impact player with 20+ home runs in the middle of the lineup for the Mariners beginning in late 2017 or 2018.

The Tumbler: Alex Jackson (OF): I might take some heat for listing the 20-year-old Jackson as a tumbler. However, he was drafted sixth overall in 2014 with the hope he would stick behind the plate as a catcher. The Mariners, though, quickly moved him to the outfield to allow his bat to dictate his development path. Since the move, though, Jackson has been hurt and ineffective. He doesn’t project to be more than an average hitter and he posted a BB-K rate of 34-103 in 93 games in 2016 at low-A ball. He hit just .243. There is usable power for 20+ home runs in the future but he might only hit .220-.240 in the Majors unless he continues to make improvements as a hitter.

The ’16 Draft Pick: Kyle Lewis (OF): The third outfielder on this list, Lewis entered pro ball with immense potential but his debut was cut short by a devastating knee injury after just 30 games. When healthy, the 11th overall pick mixes hitting ability with power and a strong eye. He could eventually hit .280-.300 with 20+ home runs for the Mariners during his peak seasons. Lewis should be 100% healthy for the 2017 season and should open the year in either high-A or low-A; either way he should be a quick mover through the system and could reach The Show as early as 2018.

The Lottery Ticket: Gareth Morgan (OF): Drafted 74th overall in 2014, the Mariners gave this Canadian outfielder (somewhat surprisingly) $2 million to forego college. Unlike fellow countryman Tyler O’Neill, Morgan is very raw despite having plus raw power. The latter prospect walked just eight times in 38 games in 2016 while whiffing 65 times. He’s also spent three straight years in short-season ball. He’ll likely need to be pushed to full-season ball in 2017 but will likely be overmatched unless he makes quick adjustments during the offseason. If he can make enough contact, Morgan has 30+ home run potential. But that’s a big “if.”

For reference sake, here is the 2015 Review.

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Ryon Healy (3B/1B): Healy entered 2016 as a fairly overlooked prospect within the A’s system and third on the minor league depth chart in terms of hot corner prospects behind Matt Chapman and Renato Nunez. A strong opening few months convinced management to give him a shot and he never looked back. His 139 wRC+ was tops on the Athletics — ahead of even Khris Davis and since-traded Josh Reddick. He has 20+ home run power even with playing half his games in a cavernous home ballpark. On the downside, Healy doesn’t walk much (4.4%) and he saw his batting average aided by a significant BABIP of .351 in the Majors. He’s also not a great fielder and will likely move to first base or designated hitter in deference to Chapman — another power-hitting prospect but with an excellent glove.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Nomar Mazara (OF): Just 21 when the season began, Mazara had a breakout 2015 season and reached triple-A. He appeared in just a handful of minor league games in ’16 before getting called up to the Majors to fill in for injured players. When the players healed, the rookie remained. Not surprisingly given his limited experience, Mazara still has holes in his game (BB-K of 37-107) but he looks like a future star after slugging 20 home runs and flashing a potentially-plus hit tool in his debut season. Look for him to slug in the middle of the Rangers lineup for years to come.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks

The Graduate: Corey Seager (SS): I spent all of last season trying to acquire Corey Seager in my FanGraphs Ottoneu league but I was thwarted at every turn. I had no doubt the young infielder was going to be a star — and very quickly. After all, there aren’t many rookies that can become a .300-average, 25-homer threat at the age 22, or threaten to make Seattle’s Kyle Seager look like the lesser of two siblings. Corey has a chance to win some MVP awards and could eventually top 30 homers (and maybe even threaten 40) while continuing to produce a strong average. There aren’t many holes in his game but he could stand to improve against southpaws and it remains to be seen if he can stick at shortstop long term.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Archie Bradley (RHP): Between 2012-13, Bradley looked like a future ace-in-the-making. However, the former first round draft pick was struck by the injury bug in 2014-15 and he hasn’t been the same since. His command and control just haven’t improved as much as hoped — which results in too many baserunners. Bradley also has a tendency to give up the long ball. Although he’s still only 24, it might be time to consider a permanent move to the bullpen where his heater might play up. That would allow him to abandon the below-average changeup and focus on the fastball-curveball combo. With so many question marks in the starting rotation for 2017, though, Arizona is no doubt going to give Bradley another shot to start for them.

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On Wednesday I lamented about how my year-long infatuation with prospect Nick Williams blinded me from seeing offensive value in other places that would likely have put my team in a better position during a rebuild.  Today I’ll take the same approach, focusing on the pitching side, and will use Jose Berrios as my prospect scapegoat.  Like Williams, I’ve owned Berrios since well before the 2016 season began, and invested fully into the scouting reports of a potential #2 starting pitcher. Better yet, I was convinced Berrios was more “polished” than most prospect pitchers, and that his strong command would quickly smooth out the inevitably bumpy transition through MLB lineups. Fast forward now to mid-September and Berrios has a 9.27 ERA in 44 IP, which includes 28 BB’s and 2.0 HR/9.  And yet, I still own him…

Using Ottoneu ownership and average salary data as of September, I limited my filter to all players currently owned for $3 or less, and then hand-selected a few pitchers who (using FIP and P/IP as quick standards for YTD value) appear to have enough future value to be at least as interesting as Jose Berrios once was to me so long (not really) ago.

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