A.J. Preller made a lot of moves early in his tenure as Padres general manager but his two best acquisitions came from a seemingly-thrown-in prospect during a trade with the White Sox and the ’17 draft. San Diego has one of the better systems in the game.

The Graduate: Manuel Margot, OF: Margot (1.8 WAR) and pitcher Dinelson Lamet (1.4) have had the biggest rookie impacts on the Padres in 2017. Both players will likely enter 2018 with question marks, though. Lamet’s (mostly) two-pitch repertoire will need to continue to challenge hitters to keep him from eventually shifting to the bullpen. Margot will try and squeeze more value out of his bat after having the majority of his strength come from his outfield defence. Still, there are promising signs from Margot – including a 22.5% line-drive rate and reasonable 19.5% strikeout rate. If he can find a way to get on base more consistently and improve his base running (He’s just 13-for-19), the 22-year-old outfielder center-fielder could become a threat at the top of the order for San Diego.

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Most of my articles are based off myself wanting to know about a subject and just hoping some readers want similar information. I’ve been overwhelmed over the last week with various names and roles for several prospects. Today, I am going to try to wade through these recent promotions to see which players are rosterable and which are just fluff. They are generally listed in my order of preference but each owner will need to see if a player (e.g. Greg Allen for steals) is usable depending on their own team needs.

Hitters

Jeimer Candelario: His value comes down to he can hit for some power and is playing regularly for the Tigers. Additionally, he’s been red hot since joining the Tigers (.400/.478/.500). He should be a .250 hitter with double digit home runs, and no stolen bases over a full. While boring, he is the only hitter featured playing every day.

Greg Allen: In daily lineup leagues, I see him as a must own for owners needing steals. Allen has one usable fantasy trait and that’s stealing bases. Like many of the rookies called up, he’s not getting regular playing time. He’s only started two games but has been in three others as a pinch hitter or runner. Because of his pinch running skills, steal deprived owners can start him if they have another player taking the day off hoping Allen gets used as a pinch runner. Owners shouldn’t count on him for any other production besides the steals.

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The organization is rich in third bas prospects. MVP candidate and Gold Glover Nolan Arenado isn’t going anywhere, which is causing a backlog with MLB-ready Ryan McMahon looking for another position to play. Behind him, the club has 2016 draft pick Colton Welker (.904 OPS in low-A) and 2017 draft pick Ryan Vilade (.934 OPS in Rookie), who played shortstop in his debut but is expected to move off the position shortly.

The Graduate: German Marquez, RHP: The Rockies graduated an impressive number of starters to The Show in 2017 including Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Marquez. The other three arms generally got more love at the beginning of the year but I put my money on Marquez and he responded with a 2.3 win season – pacing all Rockies starters. Using predominantly a two-pitch repertoire (mid-90s fastball and curveball), he showed swing-and-miss stuff as well as above-average control. Marquez has been understandably better on the road (4.50 vs 3.86 ERA) but hasn’t really been that bad at home. He’s a good bet to continue to get better in 2018

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch looks at an Astros triple-A starter who might be able to help out the big league club’s bewildered bullpen, and two very toolsy athletes.

Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, Astros: Houston has been as aggressive as any organization in snapping up Cuban pitching talent with the likes of Cionel Perez ($2 million) and Elian Rodriguez ($1.9 million) but the best results have come from a hurler that cost just $40,000. Armenteros, 23, isn’t as flashy as the other two arms mentioned above but he has a much greater chance of impacting the big league product — and in the near future. He opened the 2017 season in double-A but has now made nine triple-A starts and he keeps getting better. He’s flirted with no-hitters in his last two appearances with just two hits allowed in 15 innings – along with three walks and 17 Ks.

He’s not overpowering but Armenteros knows how to change speeds and eye levels to keep opponents off-balance. His heater works in the 90-93 mph range and his go-to offering is a changeup. Long-term, he looks like an innings-eating No. 4 starter but, if I were the Astros, I’d consider trying him in the bullpen when rosters expand in September. He might just succeed (along the lines of Joe Musgrove) where the likes of Francisco Liriano and Tyler Clippard have failed.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at three triple-A players worthy of a big-league opportunity but they are blocked in their current organizations. One player has a minor league option remaining for 2018 with the Astros, while the other two could be available through the Rule 5 draft in December. One of those two players is also heading into minor league free agency.

Tony Kemp, IF/OF, Astros: An excellent college performer at Vanderbilt, Kemp was selected in the fifth round of the 2013 draft by the Astros. The lower levels of the minors proved to be little challenge for the infielder and he reached triple-A in 2015. Unfortunately, strong depth at the big league level (Jose Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez) has kept Kemp at triple-A for the past three seasons despite solid numbers.

He’s even increased his versatility to no avail. His 2017 triple-slash line sits at .328/.373/.469 through 110 games and he has nothing left to prove at the level. Kemp, who turns 26 in October, will enter 2018 in a similar position — still stuck behind Altuve, etc. And with one minor league option remaining, he could be destined for another round in triple-A unless the Astros do him a favor and move him to a club with a question mark at second base or with a need for a strong bat off the bench.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a breakout 2017 draftee, a fast-rising starter who’s leaving the controversy of a failed physical behind him, and an undrafted pitcher who has become one of the top strikeout pitchers in the minors.

Brent Rooker, OF, Twins: I don’t typically write about same-season draft picks in the Prospect Stock Watch because first-year (half-season) stats often don’t mean much after long amateur seasons. Rooker, though, deserves some ink. Selected 35th overall out of Mississippi State University, this outfielder has defied his scouting reports and is quickly proving that his outstanding junior season in college was not a fluke.

He has some swing-and-miss to his game (50 Ks in 51 games) but he also has some of the best useable power in the low minors; he’s slugged 13 homers so far. Along with the power, he’s also shown a willingness to take a walk. Rooker opened his pro career in advanced-rookie ball but, after 22 games, was pushed all the way up to high-A ball where he’s continued to hit well with an .826 OPS. The first-year pro may return to high-A ball to open up the 2018 season but it may not take long for him to experience double-A. He has middle-of-the-order potential for the Twins.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look a future No. 2 or 3 starter for the Tigers, another impressive young third base prospect for the Red Sox and an 18-year-old prospect with 21 homers and 28 steals for the Padres.

Beau Burrows, RHP, Tigers: Wait, what? The Tigers have some prospects in their minor league system? Some real prospects? Yessiree, Detroit is back on the prospecting map. The club is starting to collect some arms with high-ceiling potential, including Matt Manning, Kyle Funkhouser, Alex Faedo and Burrows. Of the four pitchers, Burrows is the closest to impacting the big league team. Just 20 years old, he’s already at the double-A level after beginning the season in high-A ball where he produced a 1.23 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Things have been a little bumpier in double-A (4.38 ERA) but he’s still missing a lot of bats with 64 whiffs in 61.2 innings. He has a chance to reach the majors with four average or better offerings and his fastball works in the 91-95 mph range. His above-average control (38 walks in 120.1 combined innings) and improved command helps his stuff play up. Look for Burrows to reach the majors by mid-2018.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at the Reds’ top prospect, a Rockies third baseman without a home and a military hero who’s going to make his MLB debut on Saturday.

Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds: Cincinnati is starting to build a pretty impressive system but the cream of the crop continues to be 2016 second overall draft pick Senzel. He’s split the 2017 season between high-A and double-A with a combined .320 average and .947 OPS. He has just 11 homers in 106 games but the 38 doubles hint at more over-the-fence pop to come as he matures as a hitter. Senzel also runs unusually well for a third baseman and has good athleticism – both of which make him a very well-rounded player who could threaten to have a 20-20 season early in his MLB career if so motivated. He should also be an above-average fielder at the hot corner. Cincinnati’s home park has turned Eugenio Suarez into a productive player for the Reds but his days of being the starter at third base should come to an end sometime in 2018 when Senzel descends upon the position.

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Publicly available Statcast data is just over two years old. Eric Logenhagen posted his first set of prospect grades before this season started. I have decided to say screw it to small samples and see how well Eric’s power grades match up with exit velocity number. Even with the limited sample, the results ended up fairly consistent.

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Welcome to another installment of the ottoneu prospect report, where I highlight the top performances in the minor leagues (limited to players in their organization’s top 15 prospects) year to date, and over the past month.

The trade deadline has passed, and with it has come the promotions of top prospects such as Rafael Devers and Amed Rosario, but there are still prospects knocking on the door of a call up. In addition, some of these players are a bit further out (A/A+), but represent some high ceilings prospects that could be the next big marketable prospects going into 2018. Read the rest of this entry »