They’re in rebuilding mode but the Marlins system is pretty weak. They haven’t drafted all that well in recent years, have seen a rash of injuries throughout their system and didn’t get much in return when trading their assets (The return for Giancarlo Stanton was embarrassing).

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Sandy Alcantara | RHP | AAA —> The first of many flamethrowers on this list, Alcantara can work in the upper-90s with his fastball while flashing two average-or-better secondary offerings with his slider and changeup. He also has a great pitcher’s frame, which suggests he might grow into the ability to pitch 200+ innings. Alcantara biggest need is to improve his consistency and command. He has No. 2/3 starter upside if he continues developing along his current path.

2. Trevor Rogers | LHP | A —> A Tommy John survivor, the Marlins 2017 first-round pick made his pro debut in 2018 in low-A ball and looked good. He has a huge frame and should be capable of pitching lots of innings if his elbow holds up. He has a low-90s fastball with his slider being his next best offering. He has a four-pitch mix but both the curveball and changeup need work. Rogers did a nice job keeping the ball in the park during his debut and induced a lot of ground-ball outs.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals don’t have the deepest system in the word but there are some interesting prospects littered throughout the system. And the upper half of the Top 10 has some helium potential.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Alex Reyes | RHP | DL —> When healthy, Reyes has the ability to be one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. He has three better-than-average offerings when his command is on but the control also lets him down — and hasn’t had much of a chance to get better with all the layoff time. Reyes can hit triple-digits with the heater and his curveball is a swing-and-miss offerings. The members of the Cardinals front office (and fans) will hold their collective breathes until Reyes returns healthy to the mound, hopefully for Opening Day 2019.

2. Nolan Gorman | 3B | A —> Gorman has a chance to be a beast. However, he also has a chance to de-evolve into Joey Gallo — a player who swings for the fences every single time and doesn’t have an ounce of strategy at the plate beyond the grip-and-rip. Gorman, 18, had a nice approach in rookie ball but it started to fall away in A-ball when he started to chase the homers more often. He’ll likely return to A-ball in 2019 and I’d like to see him put the homer swing in his back pocket for a while and work on pitch recognition, handling curveballs and just polishing the hit tool. Defensively, he has a chance to be average but he needs some work to get there.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds system may not have the most depth to it but it has a nice mix of high-ceiling players and toolsy, raw players with upside.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Nick Senzel | 3B | AAA —> Senzel appeared to be on a collision course with the Majors in 2018 but injuries derailed those hopes. He appeared in just 44 games but more than held his own at the big league level. In his prime, Senzel should hit for average, get on base at a strong rate and produce average or better pop. His defensive home has yet to be 100% settled but he could be a solid third baseman. After some lost development time in 2018, this young hitter may not open next year in The Show but he should be there by mid-year.

2. Taylor Trammell | OF | A+ —> Trammell is finally getting some of the recognition that he deserves but he’s still better than most people realize. An extremely athletic player, it’s taken a little time for his skill to translate onto the baseball diamond but he’s now more consistently showing the skills that could make him an all-star. His numbers weren’t as shiny in 2018 but the Florida State League is a tough one to play in. Trammell takes lots of pitches and walks a lot — which is exactly what you want to see from someone with plus speed. Once he starts tapping into his raw power, there is 20-homer potential there. His modest arm could limit him to left field but he has the speed for center.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pirates system doesn’t have immense depth or a long line of high-impact players but the big league club could benefit from quite a few contributions in 2019 — especially on the infield.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Mitch Keller | RHP | AA —> One of the top arms in the upper levels of the minors, Keller has a nice mix of fastball velocity and ability to generate ground-ball outs. He’s also been durable and threw more than 140 innings split between three levels in 2018. He finished the year in triple-A but may return to that level in 2019 until he adds some additional polish to his secondary offerings and command. His fastball/curve combo, along with better-than-average control, could make him a solid No. 2/3 starter at the big league level — especially with an improved changeup.

2. Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | AA —> I’ve long been a fan of Hayes, who had his best pro season in 2018 while playing in double-A at the age of 21. He flirted with a .300 batting average while showing a better eye at the plate with 57 walks and just 84 Ks. On top of that, he started to show more gap pop and could be good for 30-40 doubles at the MLB level while producing 10-12 homers with his current approach. Defensively, he has the skills to develop into an impact defender at third base.

Read the rest of this entry »

There are some intriguing athletes sprinkled throughout the lowest levels of the minors but this system has fallen on hard times and lacks depth.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Miguel Amaya | C | A —> Amaya, 19, was a monster in the first half of the year before tiring during the latter portion of his first full season (.865 vs .634 OPS). An encouraging sign: He maintained his walk rate while trimming his strikeout rate in the second half despite the diminished offence. In his prime, he should get on base at an above-average rate and produce solid pop. He has work to do on his receiving and game calling but he’s shown potential with throwing out base runners.

2. Adbert Alzolay | RHP | AAA —> It was basically a lost year for Alzolay, who started just eight games before getting hurt. He’s an undersized righty but he can hit the mid-90s and shows flashes of a plus curveball. His makeup is universally lauded so expect him to squeeze out every ounce of potential with a ceiling of a No. 3-4 rage if he gains consistency with the secondary stuff. My biggest concern aside from injury is his fly-ball tendencies.

Read the rest of this entry »

Trades have significantly thinned out this system but the club has invested heavily in the international market in recent years so there could be some high-ceiling players (currently in short-season ball) on the way.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Keston Hiura | 2B | AA —> Hiura is mostly average across the board except for the hit tool, which has a chance to be plus. However, his BB-K of 35-102 in 122 games split between two levels shows that he needs to make some adjustments — especially after his numbers dipped when he faced better pitching in double-A (OPS from .911 to .749 after his promotion). He showed a little more power than expected in 2018 and could make his MLB debut by mid-2019.

2. Corey Ray | OF | AA —> For whatever reason, the Milwaukee system doesn’t develop hit tools very well. Ray has de-evolved as a hitter since turning pro although some of this other tools continue to shine. He is a 30-30 (HR-SB) threat with plus power and above-average speed. He also has a chance to be a strong defender. When he reaches the Majors, Ray should produce 20+ homers and 130+ Ks in a full season.

Read the rest of this entry »

8/28/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Co-Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR! Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In my chat last night, I felt I was not informed enough on a few players and I am going to examine a couple today, Luke Voit and Billy McKinney. Both are producing and playing regularly with their new teams. They could be a couple nice sleepers in deeper leagues over the season’s last month.

Luke Voit

I laughed when Yankees picked up Voit from the Cardinals at the trade deadline. I figured they’d make an impactful move, which wasn’t Voit. I’ve been wrong so far.

In his first 20 games with the Yankees, the 27-year-old first baseman started just four of them. In the last four, he’s started three going seven for 11 with three homers. On the season, he’s hitting .325/.400/.625 supported by a .444 BABIP.

Before getting too far along finding a value for Voit, a quick Greg Bird detour needs to be made. Simply, he has been horrible hitting just .199/.288/.390 on the season. The playoff-bound Yankees can’t expect to make it far in the playoff with a first baseman hitting like a catcher. I additionally checked to see if Bird was nursing an injury and nothing. It seems like Voit may have won the first base job. At least until reality sets in. While Gary Sanchez may return and play some first base, I will just assume Voit will have the full-time role until he doesn’t.

Read the rest of this entry »

Rain is stupid. OK, not all the time, but it was remarkably stupid last night as it shortened the debut of Chicago White Sox uber-pitching prospect Michael Kopech. The 22-year old flamethrower didn’t return after a rain delay just before the third inning started, but we did get to see 52 pitches as he labored a bit through his two innings. He allowed three hits, but stranded all of them and didn’t walk anybody while tallying four strikeouts.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

Read the rest of this entry »