The Pirates system doesn’t have immense depth or a long line of high-impact players but the big league club could benefit from quite a few contributions in 2019 — especially on the infield.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Mitch Keller | RHP | AA —> One of the top arms in the upper levels of the minors, Keller has a nice mix of fastball velocity and ability to generate ground-ball outs. He’s also been durable and threw more than 140 innings split between three levels in 2018. He finished the year in triple-A but may return to that level in 2019 until he adds some additional polish to his secondary offerings and command. His fastball/curve combo, along with better-than-average control, could make him a solid No. 2/3 starter at the big league level — especially with an improved changeup.

2. Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | AA —> I’ve long been a fan of Hayes, who had his best pro season in 2018 while playing in double-A at the age of 21. He flirted with a .300 batting average while showing a better eye at the plate with 57 walks and just 84 Ks. On top of that, he started to show more gap pop and could be good for 30-40 doubles at the MLB level while producing 10-12 homers with his current approach. Defensively, he has the skills to develop into an impact defender at third base.

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There are some intriguing athletes sprinkled throughout the lowest levels of the minors but this system has fallen on hard times and lacks depth.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Miguel Amaya | C | A —> Amaya, 19, was a monster in the first half of the year before tiring during the latter portion of his first full season (.865 vs .634 OPS). An encouraging sign: He maintained his walk rate while trimming his strikeout rate in the second half despite the diminished offence. In his prime, he should get on base at an above-average rate and produce solid pop. He has work to do on his receiving and game calling but he’s shown potential with throwing out base runners.

2. Adbert Alzolay | RHP | AAA —> It was basically a lost year for Alzolay, who started just eight games before getting hurt. He’s an undersized righty but he can hit the mid-90s and shows flashes of a plus curveball. His makeup is universally lauded so expect him to squeeze out every ounce of potential with a ceiling of a No. 3-4 rage if he gains consistency with the secondary stuff. My biggest concern aside from injury is his fly-ball tendencies.

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Trades have significantly thinned out this system but the club has invested heavily in the international market in recent years so there could be some high-ceiling players (currently in short-season ball) on the way.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Keston Hiura | 2B | AA —> Hiura is mostly average across the board except for the hit tool, which has a chance to be plus. However, his BB-K of 35-102 in 122 games split between two levels shows that he needs to make some adjustments — especially after his numbers dipped when he faced better pitching in double-A (OPS from .911 to .749 after his promotion). He showed a little more power than expected in 2018 and could make his MLB debut by mid-2019.

2. Corey Ray | OF | AA —> For whatever reason, the Milwaukee system doesn’t develop hit tools very well. Ray has de-evolved as a hitter since turning pro although some of this other tools continue to shine. He is a 30-30 (HR-SB) threat with plus power and above-average speed. He also has a chance to be a strong defender. When he reaches the Majors, Ray should produce 20+ homers and 130+ Ks in a full season.

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8/28/18

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In my chat last night, I felt I was not informed enough on a few players and I am going to examine a couple today, Luke Voit and Billy McKinney. Both are producing and playing regularly with their new teams. They could be a couple nice sleepers in deeper leagues over the season’s last month.

Luke Voit

I laughed when Yankees picked up Voit from the Cardinals at the trade deadline. I figured they’d make an impactful move, which wasn’t Voit. I’ve been wrong so far.

In his first 20 games with the Yankees, the 27-year-old first baseman started just four of them. In the last four, he’s started three going seven for 11 with three homers. On the season, he’s hitting .325/.400/.625 supported by a .444 BABIP.

Before getting too far along finding a value for Voit, a quick Greg Bird detour needs to be made. Simply, he has been horrible hitting just .199/.288/.390 on the season. The playoff-bound Yankees can’t expect to make it far in the playoff with a first baseman hitting like a catcher. I additionally checked to see if Bird was nursing an injury and nothing. It seems like Voit may have won the first base job. At least until reality sets in. While Gary Sanchez may return and play some first base, I will just assume Voit will have the full-time role until he doesn’t.

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Rain is stupid. OK, not all the time, but it was remarkably stupid last night as it shortened the debut of Chicago White Sox uber-pitching prospect Michael Kopech. The 22-year old flamethrower didn’t return after a rain delay just before the third inning started, but we did get to see 52 pitches as he labored a bit through his two innings. He allowed three hits, but stranded all of them and didn’t walk anybody while tallying four strikeouts.

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It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

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Unlike the White Sox, where almost all the top talent is at double-A or higher, the Indians have a very thin system with most of the talent in A-ball or lower. With that said I loved their 2018 draft and feel it’s being under estimated for how impactful it could be in a few years with the right coaching/development and some luck with injuries.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Triston McKenzie | RHP | AA —> McKenzie is one of the better starting pitcher prospects left in the minors and if he were affiliated with New York, Boston or another big market team there would be a lot more hype here. McKenzie has a great frame with room to add strength (and fastball velo), athleticism and projects to eventually have three better-than-average offerings. He needs to get back to utilizing his height more effectively and generating more ground balls. One caution: He missed the start of the year with a forearm issue, which can often lead to Tommy John surgery.

2. Nolan Jones | 3B | A+ —> I’m a big fan of Jones. Despite some swing and miss to his game, he shows an advanced approach for someone that opened the year as a teenager. And he’s already starting to turn his raw power into over-the-fence pop. His willingness to take a walk also adds to his value and he should hit for average, power and produce above-average on-base totals. He should stick at third base and looks like a future middle-of-the-order run producer. Jones, 20, could very well reach double-A in 2019.

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It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

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The Top 10 list for the Sox is top heavy with some studs but the system lacks depth, overall. Still, I’m a big fan of both Jimenez and Cease.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Eloy Jimenez | OF | AAA —> In the past, the Sox system was populated by a large group of grip-and-rip hitters with extremely poor plate discipline. Jimenez, although aggressive at the plate, makes a lot of contact — especially for a monster with plus power. Just 21, he hits the ball really hard and generates a lot of line drives, which suggests to me that his higher BABIP might be a little more sustainable than most. He should be ready to settle into a big league role at the beginning of 2019 as a strong-armed right-fielder with the ability to slug 30+ homers.

2. Dylan Cease | RHP | AAA —> Part of the return for Jose Quintana last year, the Cubs probably already regret this deal and Cease hasn’t even reached the Majors. The young right-hander has gotten stronger as the year has progressed and improved even more with a promotion from double-A to triple-A. He, like Jimenez, is ready to contribute at the big league level. Overall, he’s used his two plus offerings — fastball and curve — to strike out 140 batters in 112.1 innings. There are some injury concerns with Cease, who has a decent pitcher’s frame, but isn’t the tallest guy, and had Tommy John surgery in his past. There is frontline starter potential here, especially if the third offering continues to improve.

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