I’ve been mock drafting along with the MLB amateur draft for as long as I can remember and was inspired to do so by Jim Callis, who did the same thing for Baseball America (He’s now with MLB.com). But unlike a lot of mock drafts, I choose who I would take at each slot not who I think teams will take.

I’ll be doing another mock first round on Day 1 of the draft but I thought it might be fun to look back at how well I did last year while drafting for each of the first 30 selections. Obviously, it’s too early to know exactly how the 2018 draft will play out in the long term but we can still gain some insight.

My choices are always based on a healthy dose of video review with some statistical analysis rolled in for the college players, as well as from information gleaned from player reports from Fangraphs, Baseball America and the gentlemen at the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline (the aforementioned Callis and Jonathan Mayo).

I’ve had some success making the first overall selection in the past including nabbing Kris Bryant in 2013 (He went second overall after the Astros whiffed on Mark Appel with the first pick) and Carlos Correa, who actually went first overall to the Astros in 2012, which went against the industry consensus at the time.

Looking way back to 2007, my two favorite prep arms were Tim Alderson (oops) and Madison Bumgarner.

OK, let’s get started with the review. Remember, this is a ranking of where I feel the players should be drafted based on future potential, not based on where I think they’ll actually go.

My Pick: 1. (Tigers) Casey Mize, RHP, college

Well, this one was a no-brainer for both myself and the Tigers. And Mize has looked every bit the stud hurler. He’s already in Double-A and should already be a highly-sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues. Mize has a 1.66 ERA in 14 career starts and the only though the concerns me a little bit is the lack of big strikeout numbers (68 in 70.1 innings).

My Pick: 2. (Giants) Brady Singer, RHP, college

Singer was a top pick out of high school, too, as a second-rounder who failed to sign with the Jays but he lost some luster as the 2018 draft approached with some fearing he’d develop into a future reliever. I still loved what I was seeing from him and he’s performed great in pro ball after sliding all the way to 18th overall to the Royals. He has a 2.13 ERA in 50. 2 innings in High-A ball. I definitely would not have regretted this pick, although the Giants did OK with Joey Bart, who’s been injured but effective when healthy.

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Hey y’all!  Happy Cavan Biggio, Josh Naylor and Kevin Cron Day!  I wrote about Biggo in this Stash List. In deeper leagues, I would take a flyer on Cron over Naylor.  Cron has a better path to playing time and is absolutely smashing the ball. This week’s Stash List, though,  should be an interesting one.

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The 2019 MLB amateur draft is just over a week away! The Prospect Stock Watch has been devoting time to reviewing the 2018 draft. Earlier this week, we reviewed the second round of the draft. Today’s piece is going to look into which players have so far represented the best value from the third, fourth and fifth rounds.

This piece will naturally favor college picks as they’re generally more advanced and many of the prep players taken in later rounds of the draft require extra time in extended spring training before joining full-season ball. This piece looks at players’ results as well as the potential ceilings they possess based on their tools.

Best third-round pick: Terrin Vavra, SS, Rockies

When the year began, I would have hedged my bets towards Tristan Pompey or Kody Clemens being the steals of the fourth rounds. But Pompey posted a strikeout rate near 50% in High-A ball and earned a trip back to extended spring training to work things out. Clemens is still in High-A but he’s struggled to hit consistently and his 25% strikeout rate is high for someone who’s not a power hitter. That leads us to Vavra, who was drafted out of the University of Minnesota, and with less pedigree – although his brothers played pro ball, too. The middle infielder has shown good pop and a solid plate approach with a BB-K of 21-36 in 41 games. The line-drive rate sits at 24% and once Vavra gets a little stronger, he should start to hit even more balls over the fence. It remains to be seen if Vavra can stick at shortstop but he appears to have the offensive profile to stick at a number of different positions.

Runner Up: Owen Miller, SS, Padres

San Diego though enough of Miller’s strong pro debut in 2018 to jump him over High-A ball and assign him directly to Double-A. He’s barely missed a beat with a .301 average, and has now hit .300 at every level he’s played out. The downside to Miller is that his ceiling is somewhat limited with modest power and limited stolen base acumen. With that said, and although just 13 of his 52 hits have gone for extra bases, he has generated a 27% line-drive rate so there could be more gap pop (ie. doubles and triples) to come as he matures. He’s even more likely to end up at second base, or serve as an offensive-minded utility player.

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With the MLB amateur draft just over two weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is checking in on some 2018 draft picks. A lot of attention is always paid on first-round picks so let’s have a look at some of the players that slipped out of the first round last year and landed in the second round. The players listed below have all had strong starts to their pro career and are great reminders that you can find strong prospect values in other rounds. All the players listed below should be monitored for future value in dynasty leagues and, eventually, redraft leagues.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, Giants: Hjelle has a massive frame at 6-foot-11 but he’s not a power pitcher. Still, low-A ball hitters have struggled to handle him. He’s struck out 44 batters in 40.2 innings while inducing ground balls at a high rate of two-to-one. It’s time for the Giants to challenge the right-hander with a promotion to high-A ball as he should be overpowering these young hitters after a three-year college career. He’s a name to file away and monitor over the next couple of years.

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5/16/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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Hey y’ all!  Another week, another round of interesting prospects making their major league debuts.  The calls up are really getting fun. I was disappointed to see the Nationals demote Carter Kieboom to AAA but not overly surprised.  Kieboom is not the best defender, which was on full display during his time in Washington, but he can really hit. I’m sure he’ll get the call again later this year and will be the Nationals opening day second baseman next year. But enough with the sadness, I have another four prospects having great seasons that you might want to keep your eye or stash on your minor league roster.

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Behold! Another installment of Peripheral Prospects, the low-price, off-brand fantasy baseball version of Fringe Five. Brad Johnson and I have brought something on the order of five minor leaguers per week who make us feel — like, really feel. These players tend to be unloved and unheralded but very much deserving of love and, uh, herald, not unlike the two authors of this series.

Some quick housekeeping, per usual:

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With the 2019 amateur draft only three weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is reviewing some of the players from last year’s draft. Today, we’re checking in on 13th overall selection Connor Scott of the Miami Marlins.

The decision to start 2019 in full-season ball was a surprising move by the Marlins. The young outfielder was drafted out of a Florida high school where he was a two-way player (left-handed pitcher and outfielder). At the time of the draft, I wrote that Scott should be selected in the first or second round — but as a pitcher. Admittedly, the scouting consensus at the time was that he should be selected as a hitter due to his toolsy, athletic skill set. I personally loved his easy delivery, great pitcher’s frame and potential to develop at least two above-average offerings from the left side.

After he signed with the Marlins as an outfielder last June, he was assigned to Rookie ball where he posted a .630 OPS in 27 games. He was then oddly pushed up to Low-A ball for another 23 games where the OPS dipped to .572 and he struck out 30% of the time. On the plus side, he showed a willingness to take a walk with an 11% walk rate.

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This week we’re looking at 10 minor leaguers who are going off in the high minors (AA/AAA). We’ll look at what they’re doing and how it might impact a future call-up.

Yordan Alvarez | OF/1B – HOU

The #7 prospect on the Astros list is going off so far this year, already clubbing 14 homers in just 134 PA. He has a 213 wRC+ while improving both his strikeout (21%) and walk (14%) rates. His obscene 48% HR/FB rate obviously won’t continue, but he is absolutely locked in and knocking on the door of the bigs.

Playing time is tight in Houston, but Tyler White needs to be looking over his shoulder with that 95 wRC+. Alvarez isn’t on the 40-man while Kyle Tucker is, but I can’t see how Alvarez’s performance wouldn’t have him first in line if a spot opens, even with it needing the extra work to get him on the 40-man.

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Hey y’ all! Can you believe there as already been one month of minor league baseball?  We’ve had some great stories so far.  Luis Robert killing A+ and then getting the promotion to AA.  Casey Mize throwing a no-hitter in his first start in AA. What has been your favorite story so far?

This week’s Stash List has two hitters in killing it in AAA who may get a promotion to the majors this year, one pitcher recently promoted to AA throwing absolute fireballs while limiting walks, and a college bat performing well in A+.

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