With the 2019 amateur draft only three weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is reviewing some of the players from last year’s draft. Today, we’re checking in on 13th overall selection Connor Scott of the Miami Marlins.

The decision to start 2019 in full-season ball was a surprising move by the Marlins. The young outfielder was drafted out of a Florida high school where he was a two-way player (left-handed pitcher and outfielder). At the time of the draft, I wrote that Scott should be selected in the first or second round — but as a pitcher. Admittedly, the scouting consensus at the time was that he should be selected as a hitter due to his toolsy, athletic skill set. I personally loved his easy delivery, great pitcher’s frame and potential to develop at least two above-average offerings from the left side.

After he signed with the Marlins as an outfielder last June, he was assigned to Rookie ball where he posted a .630 OPS in 27 games. He was then oddly pushed up to Low-A ball for another 23 games where the OPS dipped to .572 and he struck out 30% of the time. On the plus side, he showed a willingness to take a walk with an 11% walk rate.

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This week we’re looking at 10 minor leaguers who are going off in the high minors (AA/AAA). We’ll look at what they’re doing and how it might impact a future call-up.

Yordan Alvarez | OF/1B – HOU

The #7 prospect on the Astros list is going off so far this year, already clubbing 14 homers in just 134 PA. He has a 213 wRC+ while improving both his strikeout (21%) and walk (14%) rates. His obscene 48% HR/FB rate obviously won’t continue, but he is absolutely locked in and knocking on the door of the bigs.

Playing time is tight in Houston, but Tyler White needs to be looking over his shoulder with that 95 wRC+. Alvarez isn’t on the 40-man while Kyle Tucker is, but I can’t see how Alvarez’s performance wouldn’t have him first in line if a spot opens, even with it needing the extra work to get him on the 40-man.

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Hey y’ all! Can you believe there as already been one month of minor league baseball?  We’ve had some great stories so far.  Luis Robert killing A+ and then getting the promotion to AA.  Casey Mize throwing a no-hitter in his first start in AA. What has been your favorite story so far?

This week’s Stash List has two hitters in killing it in AAA who may get a promotion to the majors this year, one pitcher recently promoted to AA throwing absolute fireballs while limiting walks, and a college bat performing well in A+.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re going to take a look at a struggling prospect who entered 2019 with some hype: shortstop Kevin Smith of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Smith landed on a number of pre-season Top 100 lists, although I was not one of the people on the bandwagon. With that said, I listed him as “The Riser” in the Jays system prior to 2019 based on the hype he was generating but offered these words of caution when discussing his mid-season promotion from Low-A to High-A ball in 2018:

“He then received a promotion to High-A ball around mid-season and continued to produce over-the-fence power but his approach at the plate de-evolved to more of his pre-2018 style. The walks dried up and the strikeouts rose… Smith’s prospect value is up but I’m hoping to see more of the early-2018 Smith rather than the later-2018 Smith.”

Unfortunately, we’re once again seeing more of the later-2018 Smith’s production at the Double-A level. I was surprised to see him start 2019 in Double-A but the Jays were stuck after Logan Warmoth (another shortstop who was drafted in the first round of the same draft as Smith) was terrible for all of 2018 at High-A ball and was forced to repeat the level. That pushed Smith up by default.

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Hey y’all!  This week’s stash list has a little bit of everything.  A son of a hall of famer killing AAA, a righty blowing away the competition in AAA, a base stealing machine in A ball, and a catcher with the appeal of Willians Astudillo.  Interested? I thought you were. Let’s get into this week’s Stash List.

Cavan Biggio – (TOR 2B) ETA 2019 – The Blue Jays drafted Biggio in the fifth round of the 2016 draft.  The Jays also picked up Bo Bichette the second round of 2016 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr in the July 2 signing period the year prior.  Signing these three sons of major leaguers seems like it is going to pay huge dividends for the Jays. Coming into the year, I had Biggio a bit lower than some other analysts.  His numbers in AA were great but I wanted to see more.

The Eastern League last year was not scary and he should have dominated. Well…Biggio is out to prove me wrong as he is killing AAA Buffalo.  As of this post, he is slashing .361/.495/.625 with 5 home runs and 3 steals. He is also walking more than he is striking out, 21 BB% to 17 K%, which is great to see. In the future, I see Biggio hitting around .250-.260 with about 10 steals and 15 to 20 home runs and contributing in RBIs, especially hitting behind Guerrero, Bichette, and Randal Grichuk.  If you are able to stash minor leaguers in you redraft league, I would pick up Biggio right now. I see the Jays calling him up by the summertime, if not sooner, and I cannot wait.

Dylan Cease – (CWS RHP) ETA 2019 – With Carlos Rodon headed to the Injured List with a forearm injury, we  might see Dylan Cease sooner rather than later. Cease, though, was making his case for the White Sox rotation before the injury.  Cease was drafted by the White Sox in the sixth round of the 2014 draft. He fell due to injury concerns and had TJS soon after signing.  

The 6’2” righty has slowly been working back and took a huge step forward in 2018. His control increased as his BB% decreased from about 12 BB% to around 10 BB% and his SwStk% increased from around 13% to  around 15%. So far this season, he has held the gains he made. When called up, he should be a must add for all redraft leagues.

However, I would hold off the lofty expectations in a dynasty league. Prior to 2018, scouts had Cease pegged for a bullpen role due to being basically a two pitch guy (fastball/curveball).  If he does end up in the pen, he might be a interesting eighth inning or closer.

Adam Hall – (BAL SS) ETA 2022 All fantasy league owners are searching for speed.  It is why the Billy Hamilton’s of the world were fantasy league relevant. If you want to get ahead of your other dynasty league mate, maybe take a chance on Adam Hall. The Baltimore Orioles drafted Adam Hall in the second round of the 2017 draft out of a Canadian high school.  

The O’s assigned him to low A Aberdeen to begin the 2018 season and to say it was slow going is an understatement. By the end of his first two months, he slashed .235/.318/.288 with 6 stolen bases with 3 caught steals. After that, Hall could not be stopped. In the final two months he slashed .378/.441/.500 with 16 swipes and 2 caught steals.  He was assigned to A ball and has kept up his blazing second half. As of this post, Hall is slashing .354/.453/.456 with 1 home run and 11 stolen bases in 21 games. That is right, 11 swipes in 21 games.

Hall will never contribute in power but he makes up for hit with a average hit tool and 60 grade speed. He his good eye at the plate, he would either hit lead off or second, which could lead to huge stolen base and runs numbers.

Alejandro Kirk – (TOR C) ETA 2022 – This one is just for fun. Would you be interested in a Willians Astudillo-shaped player that walks more than Astudillo and has the same low strikeout rate? Well…let me introduce you to Alejandro Kirk. Kirk is a 5’9”, 220lb catcher.  You read that right, 220 pounds.

Even with his size, Kirk is pretty agile behind the plate. In fact, Kirk has one stolen base this year in the Midwest League. In all seriousness, the thing that makes Kirk interesting is his eye at the plate. As of this post, Kirk is slashing .339/.468/.581 with a 20 BB% and 6 K%.  He also has some interesting pop, knocking 3 balls out of the park and smacking 6 doubles as of this post. The increase in power could be due to the increase in his flyball%, which has increased to 43% up from the 27% last year.

Kirk does have a pull heavy approach which teams could exploit by shifting on him and is something I will be watching closely. I think Kirk is someone you need to keep on your Watch List, especially if the power and  batting eye hold when he moves up through the Jays minor league system. Did someone say Baby Willians Astudillo who walks?

The Colorado Rockies are swimming in infield depth.

Leaving the first base position to discuss another day, the Rockies are stacked with options at the other three infield positions. Obviously, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are entrenched at their respective positions of third base and shortstop.

Then we have promising young players Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson, who have both graduated to the big league roster. McMahon has been given everyday reps at second base in 2019, while Hampson’s slow start has relegated him to more of a utility player – although he possesses the tools to be an everyday guy.

Looking further down the depth chart, we can find interesting names at each of the full-season affiliates for the Rockies.

Triple-A: Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS/3B

Rodgers is the player that most prospect watchers and Rockies fans are already aware of given his previous first-round selection, and subsequent minor league successes. In fact, Rockies fans are already expressing their frustrations to me that he’s still in the minor leagues and not helping the big league club solidify a more favorable spot in the NL West standings.

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Hey y’all!  Happy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Carter Kieboom Day!  In celebration of some fun call ups, I thought I write up some guys who are having a great start to the MiLB season.  Some of the guys success can be attributed to a swing adjustment while others are building on a already great minor league career.  All these guys deserve to be on your watch list and some deserve to be rostered on your minor league roster. Alrighty, let’s go!

Oscar Mercado OF (CLE) – Oscar Mercado was a second round draft pick of the Cardinals in 2012 out of a Florida high school.  He was traded to the Indians last season for outfield prospects Conner Capel and Jhon Torres. I liked the trade for both sides at the time.  The Indians needed an outfielder closer to the Show and the Cardinals were able to get a bit younger while moving depth. When he came over, Mercado underperformed, especially in the power arena.  His ISO dipped to a career low 0.068. As reported by Jim Ingraham of Baseball America, Mercado went to work in the offseason on his swing. The swing adjustment appears to be working as well.  

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The Houston Astros do a lot of things very well.

Drafting pitchers in the first round is not really one of them. Over the past 10 years, the Astros have selected hurlers four times. Brady Aiken and Mark Appel were huge misses as first-overall selections. Forrest Whitley, taken 17th, looks like a future top-of-the-rotation arm.

And then there is J.B. Bukauskas. The right-hander was a polarizing pick but the Astros bought into his college success — despite the question marks surrounding his transition to pro ball — and selected him 15th overall in 2017. Three years into his pro career, those questions are only getting louder.

Bukauskas made just three pro appearances in 2017. His 2018 season was stunted by injury. He played at five levels, including his rehab appearances, and topped out at Double-A (one game). In total, there was nothing alarming about his numbers. In fact, overall, he had a 2.14 ERA and struck out 71 batters in 59 innings while also showing some solid ground-ball rates.

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Hey y’all! Happy Michael Chavis Day!  I was planning on writing up Chavis for my post on Monday but with this news, I knew it could not wait.  I’ve put together some guys tearing it up in AAA who might be on the verge of a call up. If these guys are still available in your dynasty league, go and get them now.  The following guys could pick you up some steals later in the year or be an upgrade at the catcher position in the second half of the season. All right…let’s go!

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