Revisiting My 2018 Mock Draft

I’ve been mock drafting along with the MLB amateur draft for as long as I can remember and was inspired to do so by Jim Callis, who did the same thing for Baseball America (He’s now with MLB.com). But unlike a lot of mock drafts, I choose who I would take at each slot not who I think teams will take.

I’ll be doing another mock first round on Day 1 of the draft but I thought it might be fun to look back at how well I did last year while drafting for each of the first 30 selections. Obviously, it’s too early to know exactly how the 2018 draft will play out in the long term but we can still gain some insight.

My choices are always based on a healthy dose of video review with some statistical analysis rolled in for the college players, as well as from information gleaned from player reports from Fangraphs, Baseball America and the gentlemen at the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline (the aforementioned Callis and Jonathan Mayo).

I’ve had some success making the first overall selection in the past including nabbing Kris Bryant in 2013 (He went second overall after the Astros whiffed on Mark Appel with the first pick) and Carlos Correa, who actually went first overall to the Astros in 2012, which went against the industry consensus at the time.

Looking way back to 2007, my two favorite prep arms were Tim Alderson (oops) and Madison Bumgarner.

OK, let’s get started with the review. Remember, this is a ranking of where I feel the players should be drafted based on future potential, not based on where I think they’ll actually go.

My Pick: 1. (Tigers) Casey Mize, RHP, college

Well, this one was a no-brainer for both myself and the Tigers. And Mize has looked every bit the stud hurler. He’s already in Double-A and should already be a highly-sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues. Mize has a 1.66 ERA in 14 career starts and the only though the concerns me a little bit is the lack of big strikeout numbers (68 in 70.1 innings).

My Pick: 2. (Giants) Brady Singer, RHP, college

Singer was a top pick out of high school, too, as a second-rounder who failed to sign with the Jays but he lost some luster as the 2018 draft approached with some fearing he’d develop into a future reliever. I still loved what I was seeing from him and he’s performed great in pro ball after sliding all the way to 18th overall to the Royals. He has a 2.13 ERA in 50. 2 innings in High-A ball. I definitely would not have regretted this pick, although the Giants did OK with Joey Bart, who’s been injured but effective when healthy.

My Pick: 3. (Phillies) Joey Bart, C, college

Bart actually went second so I can’t complain about how this played out. The Phillies actually selected Alec Bohm, who’s been good. The young third baseman has split 2019 between two A-ball levels and has a combined .927 OPS with 24 extra base hits in 46 games. Still, I’d rather have Bart or Singer.

My Pick: 4. (White Sox) Alec Bohm, 3B, college

There wasn’t a ton of separation between Bohm or Jonathan India prior to the draft but I preferred Bohm because he had the better year-over-year track record, more success with wood bats, and also made more contact. The White Sox went with Nick Madrigal, who worried me as a Top 5 pick due to his lack impact bat. Those worries have not been quieted in pro ball. He has an outstanding 14-6 BB-K in High-A but he just hasn’t been able to drive the ball enough to do damage.

My Pick: 5. (Reds) Carter Stewart, RHP, prep

I really liked the looks I had of Stewart pitching and considered him the top prep pitcher. The Braves made him the second high school arm selected at No. 8 after Ryan Weather (who I preferred in the supplemental first round) went seventh. Carter failed his physical, didn’t sign and is now looking at playing in Japan. The Reds actually went with Jonathan India, who I took one pick later as you can see.

My Pick: 6. (Mets) Jonathan India, 3B, college

As mentioned above, India’s swing-and-miss tendencies and modest results with wood bats caused me some concern, but not enough to drop him too far from where he actually went. The Mets went with Jarred Kelenic, who was a great pick (although the eventually traded him to Seattle). This is my biggest “Do Over” of the first round as I was set to take him 14th overall, which is still a solid spot but he’s outperformed my expectations with .934 OPS in 44 Low-A games.

My Pick: 7. (Padres) Nick Madrigal, 2B, college

As mentioned above, Madrigal’s lack of clear ceiling worried me so he slid to the Padres at seventh overall but they’re probably thrilled with their actual choice, which was Ryan Weathers. He missed the first three weeks of May so he’s thrown just 27.1 innings this year but his ERA sits at 1.98 and his K-BB is 34-3.

My Pick: 8. (Braves) Jackson Kowar, RHP, college

The Royals and I were really on the same wavelength on draft day. After getting Brady Singer 18th overall (who I picked second), they were then able to get Kowar at 33rd with their second pick. As mentioned above, the Braves took Carter Stewart and failed to sign him. Kowar has been money while pitching in High-A ball with Singer, and looks like a mid-rotation stud capable of chewing up innings.

My Pick: 9. (Athletics) Travis Swaggerty, OF, college

I had a difficult time choosing where to select this toolsy-but-raw college outfielder. I took the gamble ninth overall and he actually went to the Pirates one pick later. The A’s rocked the draft by actually selecting Kyler Murray, who went on to become the first overall selection in the NFL draft. In hindsight, the A’s would probably prefer to have selected Swaggerty, who has been good but not great in High-A ball.

My Pick: 10. (Pirates) Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, prep

I thought I was going out on a limb by taking Rodriguez this high based on his stuff and great pitching frame but then went out and nabbed him just one pick later in reality after he was a big-time late riser through the scouting ranks. He’s pitching outstanding in Low-A ball and really needs to be challenged in High-A ball. He currently has a K-BB of 53-11 through 36 innings and his ERA sits at 1.50. The Pirates actually took outfielder Travis Swaggerty, who has a modest .699 OPS through 42 high-A ball games in 2019.

My Pick: 11. (Orioles) Mason Denaburg, RHP, prep

I really liked the video I saw of Denaburg (ie. his delivery and obvious athleticism) and went out on a limb by selecting him for the Orioles at 11th overall. He actually slid to the Nationals at 27th overall due to signability and injury concerns. The latter concern was perhaps warranted as he has yet to throw a pro pitch. The Orioles actually got Grayson Rodriguez.

My Pick: 12. (Blue Jays) Logan Gilbert, RHP, college

Gilbert’s stock was rumored to be down a bit as the draft approached but I still liked what I saw in the videos and had him pegged as one of the Top 3-5 college arms. He had the potential to throw strikes, get a ton of ground balls, and be strikeout guy if the fastball velo jumped back into the mid-90s. At worst, he was a No. 4 guy with a great pitcher’s frame who could provide 180-200 innings. He’s been much more of a fly-ball pitcher for the Mariners, who picked him 14th, but he has a K-BB of 53-9 and a combined 1.75 ERA between two A-ball levels. This is a good looking pick and the Mariners should be thrilled that they ended up with both Gilbert and Kelenic. The Jays actually selected Jordan Groshans here, who I had pegged in the supplemental first or second rounds. The Jays used the Groshans pick to save money which they then used to nab his prep teammate, Adam Kloffenstein, in the third round. Kloffenstein had slipped a bit due to bonus demands.

My Pick: 13. (Marlins) Jordyn Adams, OF, prep

There were some athletic, toolsy outfielders that I was considering here – plus the powerful bat of Nolan Gorman. I knew he was a little riskier from a skills development standpoint than Kelenic but I also read the reviews on his plus makeup, which always causes me to add a little helium to players as I believe it truly is the sixth tool (and should be talked about more). I popped him four picks before he was actually selected by the Angels. Adams is still working on pitch recognition and looking to make consistent contact in Low-A ball with a BB-K of 19-48 in 41 games. I probably would have had him open the year in extended spring training for a little extra side work but the Angels are an aggressive team with prospect development. The Marlins actually took Connor Scott here, who was a two-way player as a high schooler, and made him an outfielder. I had him as a potential second rounder but as a pitcher. I really liked his delivery and felt his stuff would tick up once he took to the mound on a regular basis. I didn’t see him as a first-round bat at all and he’s hit just .212 as a pro and is really struggling in 2019.

My Pick: 14. (Mariners) Jarred Kelenic, OF, prep

I liked Kelenic and felt I had him at a pretty decent slot but a lot of teams also liked his athleticism and advanced looking bat for a cold weather prospect (Wisconsin). Interestingly, I took him for the Mariners, which is where he ended up after the Mets traded him in December during the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal. I’m a little disappointed in myself for taking Swaggerty over both Jordyn Adams and Kelenic. College hurler Logan Gilbert was actually selected here.

My Pick: 15. (Rangers) Nolan Gorman, 3B, prep

I saw Gorman as slightly more advanced Joey Gallo and I think that’s turned out to be a fair assessment. I felt he was a great gamble at 15 with the other prep bats off the board. Gorman had a great start to his pro career and has also been solid so far in 2019. The strikeouts are higher than you’d like but he’s hitting for power and taking a healthy number of walks. The Cardinals, who typically favor the college ranks and identify college talent as good as any team in the game, took Gorman at 19th overall. In reality, the Rangers nabbed prep hurler Cole Winn here, who I didn’t love (mostly his delivery) and had pegged for the supplemental round.

My Pick: 16. (Rays) Shane McClanahan, LHP, college

McClanahan began the draft year in consideration for a Top 10 pick but then other players added helium and lots of teams became concerned with the lefty’s injury history, existing control issues and risk of becoming a reliever. But I saw a lefty with a great pitcher’s frame and decent delivery who could throw 100 mph. And he had decent statistical results in college baseball. I felt the potential reward was worth the risk, even if he might end up as a shut-down closer. The Rays were able to get McClanahan 31st overall and he’s looked good in pro ball, albeit in Low-A ball. He’s struck out 61 batters in 42 innings and he’s averaging six walks per nine innings. The ability to limit hits and induce ground balls has limited the damage from the free passes. The Rays actually took Matthew Liberatore here and should be pretty darn excited with that result. He opened the year in extended spring training but has recently been added to their Low-A team where he’s allowed one earned run in two starts.

My Pick: 17. (Angels) Bo Naylor, C, prep

A prep catcher with a report of an average or better potential hit tool, sign me up! Keep in mind, as a Canadian, Naylor was also less advanced than most warm weather prospects so just imagine what could happen when he starts playing baseball every day as a professional. There was some risk here because it wasn’t a guarantee that he could stick behind the dish but I liked the athleticism. And his body was better than his brothers (Josh Naylor). He’s struggled a bit in pro ball as prep catchers tend to do and they focus on the defensive side of the game, but I’m still optimistic. The Indians actually took him 29th overall and the Angels actually selected Jordyn Adams here.

My Pick: 18. (Royals) Matthew Liberatore, LHP, prep

In hindsight, I waited too long to nab Liberatore. But I’m also always very cautious with picking pitchers because of the injury risk and if I see a good prep hitter I’ll almost always prioritize over the pitcher. Still, I had him ranked as the fourth-best prep arm in the draft. As well all know, the Royals actually deployed a college-pitcher-or-nothing approach to this draft with their multiple high picks and stole Brady Singer here.

My Pick: 19. (Cardinals) Cole Wilcox, RHP, prep

I loved Wilcox but waited a little bit to nab him over signability concerns although I never expected he would actually slide right out of the first round and to the end of the draft when the Nationals took him in the 37th round. But he told teams right before the draft it was almost impossible to sign him except for a huge sum of money. He had a great pitcher’s frame, threw strikes, had some velo and there were also reports of great make-up. For me, that’s too hard to turn down and I didn’t really think the threat to go to college was real – but I was wrong. Wilcox honored his commitment spent most of the year working out of the bullpen for the University of Georgia. He should move into the rotation in 2019-20.

My Pick: 20. (Twins) Steele Walker, OF, college

I was uncomfortable with this pick at the time and it looks like a poor choice. He showed a strong hit tool in college but limited power for a corner outfielder. Walker ultimately went to the White Sox in the second round with the 46th overall pick. He’s been OK in pro ball but I expect a little more from the 20th overall selection – both in terms of present value and what appears to be his future ceiling. Still, it’s too early to know exactly what the White Sox have in Walker. The Twins actually picked another college corner outfielder here in Trevor Larnach, who I had as a second-round guy because of inconsistent past performances and the swing-and-miss in his game. He’s been good in pro ball and looks like the better choice.

My Pick: 21. (Brewers) Jeremiah Jackson, SS, prep

I really, really liked Jackson – much more than the industry consensus. I saw outstanding athleticism and potential plus defense at shortstop. The big question was the bat and he had an uneven pro debut with 59 Ks in 43 games. He was held back in extended spring training in 2019 and will open the year in short-season ball in a few weeks. He actually went 57th overall in the second round to the Angels, who love their raw, athletic and toolsy prospects. The Brewers ended up taking another prep shortstop here in Brice Turang, who I didn’t like at all. But Turang has looked great as a pro and is hitting .312 with a BB-K of 30-31. He hasn’t answered the concerns about his lack of power but he has good speed and if he’s going to be a .350+ on-base guy then he has some real value even if he moves to second base.

My Pick: 22. (Rockies) Lenny Torres Jr., RHP, prep

Torres was another guy I liked more than the industry consensus. He was being knocked down due to his lack of size and potential durability. I loved his athleticism on the mound and delivery, as well as his stuff. The Indians (who took a lot of guys I liked in the 2018 draft) actually nabbed him 41st overall. He had a nice pro debut with a 1.76 ERA in six appearances but he opened 2019 in extended spring training. One of the youngest picks in the draft, he doesn’t turn 19 until October. The Rockies took college pitcher Ryan Rolison with this selection, who was seen as a high-floor, lower-ceiling option.

My Pick: 23. (Yankees) Greyson Jenista, OF, college

I saw Jenista as a player that could potentially tap into his raw power and become a real beast at the plate with some pro instruction. It hasn’t happened yet, and he’s hitting just .219 with three home runs in 45 High-A ball games. Jenista actually went 49th overall to the Braves. The Yankees actually took prep catcher Anthony Seigler here, who I had a second-round guy. That pick has looked OK so far, but he opened 2019 in extended spring training.

My Pick: 24. (Cubs) Blaine Knight, RHP, college

Here, I saw a college starter with a good fastball-curveball combination and a solid pitcher’s frame with room to add muscle (and perhaps more velocity). Knight actually slid to the third round and was selected 87th overall by the Orioles. He’s pitching well and has split the year between Low-A and High-A with a 1.69 ERA in 53 innings. The Cubs went with Nico Hoerner here. He’s now hurt but was pushed to Double-A to open the year. He’s hitting well everywhere he’s played and has a .312 career average. And while he’s a good hitter, I see someone who’s very reliant on the hit tool with modest power and speed.

My Pick: 25. (Diamondbacks) J.T. Ginn, RHP, prep

Ginn was one of my favorite prep picks and the Dodgers agreed, nabbing him with the 30th overall selection. Unfortunately, he failed to come to terms and had a solid freshman year at Mississippi State University and could be a top pick again in two years. The Diamondbacks actually went with high schooler Matt McLain, who wasn’t in my radar at all and they failed to sign him. He had a rough freshman year at UCLA with a .204 average and 58 strikeouts in just 191 at-bats.

My Pick: 26. (Red Sox) Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, prep

Kloffenstein ended up slipping due to signability concerns but the Blue Jays were able to get him signed in the third round after going after his teammate Jordan Groshans, who signed for below-slot money. The scenario has worked out great for the Jays. The Red Sox chose to go with Triston Casas, which has worked out OK, too, although I’m a little worried about his BB-K of 16-46 through the first 42 Low-A games.

My Pick: 27. (Nationals) Alek Thomas, OF, prep

I’m disappointed in myself for waiting so long to take Thomas. I definitely considered him higher but didn’t see a ton of projection in his body and wasn’t sure how much power he’d grow in to. He still hasn’t answered that, obviously, but he’s had some great pro success. I really liked his swing and approach at the plate. He’s hit for average at three levels, shown a good eye and solid base running, even if he’s not really stealing bases. Arizona stole him in the second half of the second round. The Nationals actually went with Mason Denaburg here.

My Pick: 28. (Astros) Ryan Rolison, LHP, college

As we saw above, Rolison actually went to the Rockies with the 22nd overall selection. I saw his ceiling as a No. 4 starter so had him pushed a little further down the list than where Colorado actually took him. He’s pitching well in pro ball and has split the year between low-A and high-A with a 1.64 ERA and 51 Ks in 49.1 innings. The Astros actually took the hulking, slugging first baseman Seth Beer, who has had an excellent start to his pro career.

My Pick: 29. (Indians) Seth Beer, 1B, college

Beer had a lot of offensive success in college but he reminded me a bit too much of A.J. Reed, who was also drafted by the Astros a few years ago and has been stuck as a Quad-A slugger. They didn’t seem to mind, though, since they actually took Beer at 28. If a player like this doesn’t hit for power, there’s often very little other value derived from them. Beer, though, has hit for both average and power as a pro and has already made it to Double-A. He has a .936 OPS through 111 career games. The Indians actually took Bo Naylor with this selection.

My Pick: 30. (Dodgers) Nander De Sedas, SS, prep

Well, this final pick was a cursed pick for both myself and the Dodgers. De Sedas was an attractive late-round pick as a raw, toolsy player with a huge upside but also a significant bust risk. If all were to go well, he would develop into a switch-hitting shortstop with plus power. But there were questions about his body, ability to stick at short and his hit tool. When he didn’t go high enough for a team to give him the money he was looking for, he slid all the way to the 29th round where the Brewers took a run at him. He’s now playing at Florida State University. The Dodgers actually took J.T. Ginn here and, as mentioned above, he also did not sign and instead headed to college.