A lot of highly touted prospects begin the year in the minor leagues, but make an impact by the end of the season. If you know where to look and you are willing to be patient, you can take advantage of prospects.

For example, Jay Bruce was very highly touted coming in to 2008, but the Reds didn’t call him up until late May (probably to prevent him from becoming a Super Two player down the road). However, when he did come up, he made a big impact, smacking 21 homers. Those of you who were patient with Bruce received an infusion of power starting in late May – almost as if you acquired a power hitter for free.

Francisco Liriano is another (rather extreme) example of when patience pays off. Back in 2006, Liriano began the season in the bullpen, and many fantasy players gave up on him, despite his solid performance out of the pen. Those who were patient were rewarded with 16 phenomenal starts down the stretch. Of course, most youngsters aren’t able to perform at the level that Liriano did, but many of them can make a positive impact on your team.

The key to prospecting is figuring out what players are likely to be called up, and what players are not. For example, Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game, but is very unlikely to make it to the majors this year. Meanwhile, Matt LaPorta is on the brink of a call-up, and could provide immediate value once he makes it to the show.

Furthermore, unless you play in a particularly deep league, you should understand that very few prospects may a huge impact in fantasy leagues right away. Often times even highly touted prospects fail in their first stint in the majors (remember Cameron Maybin in 2007 with Detroit?), and just aren’t worth stashing away. You have to find guys who are both on the cusp of major league action, as well as likely to have some impact when they do make it. Players like this for 2009 include LaPorta, Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Colby Rasmus, Michael Bowden, Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler.

Prospects can add a lot of value to your team, but don’t get caught up in overvaluing what could be rather than what actually is.

Andrew McCutchen is a top prospect. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein rated him as a five-star prospect, second in the Pirates system to Pedro Alvarez. Similarly, Baseball America ranked him as the Pirates best prospect heading into the 2008 season. McCutchen spent 2008 at triple-A, and may be poised for a call up to the majors. Let’s look at what to expect from him from a fantasy perspective.

McCutchen was only 21 years old in 2008, but played the entire year at triple-A. Therefore, his line of .283/.372/.398 is actually a lot more impressive than it looks. Age is a crucially important factor in determining a prospect’s status, and any 21-year-old who can simply hold his own in triple-A is well ahead of the game. Although McCutchen didn’t show much power, a .372 OBP is quite a feat for someone so young.

However, McCutchen had an underwhelming line in double-A in 2007 as well, hitting .258/.327/.383. Again, he was only 20 at the time, so his line is a lot more impressive than it looks. Still, that’s two straight underwhelming seasons – so why is he even worth writing about?

Three reasons: first of all, McCutchen is probably a lot better than his lines from 2007 and 2008 showed; secondly, he is very likely to get called to the majors in 2009; finally, he could contribute to your fantasy team right away.

I’ve covered the idea that McCutchen is better than his lines showed – scouts love him, and he was so young for his level that simply being decent is quite an achievement. Furthermore, he has shown consistent improvement in both his walk rate and strikeout rate since 2006 – his walk rate has risen every year (even though he’s played against tougher competition), and his strikeout rate has fallen. Again, this is doubly impressive considering that McCutchen has moved up a level each year and is still so young.

Furthermore, the Pirates have an opening in center field. Yes, I know that Nate McLouth played there last season, hit quite well and even won a Gold Glove. However, simply put, McLouth is not even an average defensive center fielder – he was a whopping 40 plays below average (last among qualified “center fielders”), according to John Dewan’s numbers. Even if he’s not quite that bad in center, McLouth should hit enough to man a corner, and McCutchen is supposedly an above-average defender. Center field is McCutchen’s for the taking, and he should grab it some point in 2009.

Finally, McCutchen is an excellent long-term prospect, and many believe that he will develop power to complement his speed, defense, and improving plate discipline. However, his career slugging percentage in the minors is .414, and he’s hit a total of 39 homers in 462 career games. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that while power may come in the future, he’s probably not going to hit 25 homers at the major league level in 2009.

However, McCutchen may be able to help you in the steals department. He stole 34 bases in 135 games in 2008, and even though he was caught 18 times, he’s only been caught 25% of the time he’s attempted a steal in the minors. In other words, McCutchen is probably an efficient enough base stealer that the Pirates won’t hesitate to turn him loose on the base paths.

Furthermore, McCutchen’s improving strikeout- and walk-rates suggest that he may be able to maintain a respectable batting average (and OBP) in the majors. The BA would help you for obvious reasons, but the OBP will help him get more opportunities to steal bases (and score runs).

McCutchen is unlikely to break camp with the team, and I’d guess that the Pirates are savvy enough (and far enough out of contention) so as to wait until late May or early June to bring McCutchen to the majors, thereby preventing him from attaining Super Two status in three years. He’s probably not going to make enough of an impact to make him draft-worthy in shallow mixed leagues (although those of you who play in leagues like this may want to snatch him up if/when he does get the call to the majors). However, anyone in deeper mixed leagues or NL Only leagues may want to stash him on your bench, as McCutchen could be an excellent source of steals when he finally gets called to the big leagues.

And for those of you in keeper leagues, there are few better long-term prospects than Andrew McCutchen.

The Braves are loaded with outfield prospects. Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game. Gorkys Hernandez could be an everyday center fielder. And Jordan Schafer may be a future star. Of these three, Schafer is the closest to the majors, and bears watching in fantasy leagues in 2009.

Jordan Schafer’s 2008 season didn’t exactly start well. In fact, it was put on hold after 11 at bats: Schafer was suspended for 50 games for use of HGH. Schafer returned in June and played well in June and July for the Braves’s double-A affiliate in Mississippi, but he really turned it on in August. In 100 at bats in August, Schafer hit .320/.409/.630 with 6 homers and 7 doubles. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it also would make sense that Schafer may need a month or two to get himself back into the game, physically and mentally.

Overall, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals, which is extremely impressive for a 21-year old in double-A. He showed solid plate discipline, striking out 88 times but walking 49. And if we look closer, we can see that Schafer’s season was even more impressive.

Mississippi is generally a pitcher’s park, and it depressed homers by 18% in 2007. Schafer’s home/road splits reflect the difficult hitting environment in Mississippi: at home, Schafer hit .239/.378/.373, but on the road he hit .293/.376/.549. Schafer also hit nine of his ten homers on the road. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that Schafer’s numbers would have been even better if he played half of his games in a more neutral environment.

On the flip side, Schafer really struggled against left handed pitching, hitting only .196/.306/.299 against southpaws, while crushing righties to the tune of .309/.416/.565. Schafer is still quite young and has plenty of time to improve against lefties – whether he is able to improve against them could be the difference between whether he becomes an above-average player or a star.

Jordan Schafer’s career thus far looks quite similar to another center fielder: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s performance at double-A was eerily similar to Schafer’s (minus the suspension), as Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480 with 13 homers and 10 steals (and a 73/49 K/BB ratio) –remember, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals (and a 88/49 K/BB ratio). Sizemore’s line was more impressive – Sizemore was only 20 at the time, while Schafer was 21, and Sizemore’s strikeout rate was much better than Schafer’s. However, Sizemore – like Schafer – struggled mightily against lefties, and Sizemore – like Schafer – had a well-rounded game and scouts could easily project power in the future.

Obviously, Jordan Schafer is unlikely to become Grady Sizemore. Sizemore developed nearly perfectly, Sizemore’s season at double-A was slightly better than Schafer’s, and Sizemore was a year younger at the time (which makes a huge difference). However, the similarities between the two are not to be taken lightly, and even if Schafer doesn’t become as good as Sizemore, Schafer can still be a star.

Atlanta has never been hesitant to promote young players to the majors, and there are no major roadblocks to prevent Schafer from ascending to the big leagues. He offers a unique blend of speed and power, and has enough plate discipline that he should be an asset even without a high batting average. Schafer’s strikeout rate wasn’t terrible, but it was high enough to suggest that he could have a rather low batting average, at least in his first year or two in the majors, but he offers enough additional skills that he could be useful to you anyway.

Schafer is still young and may struggle in his first taste of the big leagues. Don’t expect him to storm into the majors like Jay Bruce did last year. However, if Schafer gets 300 at bats, he could hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases, while scoring and driving in a fair amount of runs and hitting .250 or so. There is some value in a player like that, especially a mid-season waiver-wire pickup. Schafer’s long-term star is very, very bright, but his 2009 may be somewhat of a disappointment.

Any way that you want to slice and dice the numbers, the Rangers’ starting pitching staff was a Texas-sized embarrassment in 2008. The club bashed its way to a major league-best .278 Equivalent Average, scoring a whopping 902 runs along the way. Unfortunately, as good as the offense was, the team’s run prevention was poor enough to nullify all of those crooked numbers posted by Hamilton, Kinsler et al.

Name a Texas pitcher that took the hill, and odds are that his ERA resembled something that you’d see on the side of a Boeing jet. As a team, the Rangers’ starters authored an abhorrent 5.51 ERA, tying the Baltimore Orioles for the highest mark in the bigs (if Texas and Baltimore switched staffs, would anyone notice?) Even using WPA/LI to adjust for the hitter-happy tendencies of Arlington, the Rangers ranked just 25th in the bigs. In a clear sign of the Apocalypse, Sidney Ponson (released in June) “led” the staff in WPA/LI at 0.23. When Sir Sidney leads your staff in anything but surliness, you have a problem.

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

Ramon Vazquez’s work at third base was enough to make Brooks Robinson weep (-19.2 UZR/150), but the free agent is unlikely to return to Texas. UZR isn’t the only fielding system that disapproves of this troika either, as John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had Kinsler (-15 plays) Hamilton (-13) and Young (-7) all in the red as well. That combined -35 showing translates to about 28 runs below average. Another slugger, Chris Davis, will likely see action at the hot corner next season. It’s too small of a sample to mean much, but the 6-4, 235 pounder was -3 plays in 404 innings at first base, -9 in 276 innings at third and comes with spotty defensive scouting reports.

You might be asking yourself, why does this matter? Texas’ starters are hazardous to being with, so who cares if the defense makes things worse? While it’s true that many of the club’s starters have been downright repugnant over the past few seasons, the Rangers do have a considerable wave of young arms emerging. Eric Hurley, Tommy Hunter and Matt Harrison have already made their debuts. Higher-tier hurlers like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz reached AA in ’08, and are blazing a trail to the majors that could place them in Arlington sometime during the 2009 season.

While these prospects should still be kept on the radar screen, it is important to keep in mind the context in which they will be placed: pitching in a bandbox (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington increased run production by seven percent from 2006-2008) in front of iron-gloved defenders.

Michael Bowden had a fantastic season in 2008. He began the year at double-A Portland, where he posted a 101/24 K/BB ratio in 104 innings. He also allowed only five homers. He was then promoted to triple-A, where he put up a 29/5 ratio in 40 innings, while allowing five homers. On the surface, those are some excellent numbers.

But if you look beyond the surface, you’ll see that Bowden was even better than his overall numbers suggested. Bowden’s tRA* (which can be found over at Stat Corner) at double-A was 3.20. That’s the best tRA* of any starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year, at any level.

And yes, the Eastern League (in which Portland plays) is generally pretty favorable to pitchers. But still: Bowden’s tRA* was over 25% better than the next closest pitcher in the Eastern League. Bowden’s led the league in tRA* by a larger margin than any other pitcher in the minors led his league. In other words, relative to his own league, Bowden was by far the most dominant starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, Bowden showed no visible home/road splits, nor any lefty/righty splits. To be sure, Bowden’s raw stats were enhanced by a .247 BABIP and a low HR/FB; however, tRA* takes these things into account, by ignoring BABIP (instead focusing on what types of batted balls a pitcher gets), and regressing HR/FB. Therefore, while Bowden’s overall stats may represent a semblance of good luck (low BABIP, for example), his tRA* is luck-free.

Finally, Bowden is not a “trick” pitcher – his velocity and stuff backs up his stats, suggesting that he could find continued success at the big league level. In his one start at the major league level, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he showed four pitches: a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Bowden will be able to have success in the future. However, using tRA* gives us a better understanding of the pitcher Bowden was in 2008, and therefore gives us a better insight into what kind of pitcher he can be in 2009 and beyond: namely, a top-tier starter.

The Red Sox already have an impressive array of young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz (who I still believe will be good) are all under 30 years old. Bowden can get lost in the shuffle, but he was the very best starting pitcher in all of the minor leagues in 2008, despite being just 21 years old.

Of course, the Red Sox’s tremendous amount of pitching talent means that Bowden may not make too many starts in the majors in 2009. The Red Sox will carefully monitor his innings total – he pitched 150 innings last year, after totaling 142 innings in 2007 and 112 innings in 2006. The Red Sox probably won’t want him to exceed 160-170 innings in 2009.

However, there may be room for Bowden at the major league level: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Wakefield are all ahead of him, but Buchholz may have fallen behind him, Masterson may be a full-time reliever and Wakefield is very risky. Bowden has demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch – and be successful – at the major league level, and if given the chance to make some starts in 2009, he could be quite a steal for your fantasy team.

As you’ll certainly notice if you read my articles on this site, I have an affinity for mediocre pitchers. Or rather, I have an interest for non-ace pitchers who aren’t amazing, but are solid.

Unless you’re playing in a very shallow league, non-ace pitchers can make or break your season. Everyone can identify the CC Sabathias and Josh Becketts of the world. However, pitching is difficult to assess and predict; there are many pitchers who come “out of nowhere” to have respectable seasons. If you’re able to identify these players, you can get some excellent values on your pitchers, and focus your earlier-round picks on safer-bet offensive players.

Furthermore, even pitching staffs with aces at the front need solid pitchers behind them. Often times, you can get a pitcher in 15th round who pitches as well as someone drafted in the 8th round – you just need to know where to look.

And for those of you play in truly deep leagues, and/or AL- or NL-only leagues, you often find yourself stuck with awful pitchers because you simply need to fill those spots. Sometimes the best pitching staffs aren’t the ones that are filled with aces, but rather are the staffs that don’t have any pitchers like Carlos Silva bringing down the rest of the staff.

With that in mind, let’s discuss Mitch Talbot.

Who?

Mitch Talbot, a 25-year-old left-hander in the Rays organization, may have had one of the least noticed excellent seasons by any minor league pitcher this year. Talbot is understandably overshadowed in an organization with a ridiculous amount of pitching talent. That said, he also had a very good season.

In 161 innings in triple-A, Talbot posted a 3.86 ERA – solid, but not awe-inspiring. Of course, we know that ERA is far from the best predictor for a pitcher’s future success – especially for minor leaguers. Talbot also tallied 141 strikeouts and allowed only 35 walks – an excellent ratio. Furthermore, Talbot induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, thus leading to him allowing only nine homers. In fact, in 684 career innings in the minors, Talbot has allowed a mere 44 homers. That’s excellent.

Furthermore, Talbot’s 3.86 ERA is misleading due to the fact that he had a very high BABIP this season – .326, to be precise. That’s a lot higher than we’d expect, even allowing for the fact that as a ground-ball pitcher, Talbot will allow a few more hits than a fly-ball pitcher (of course, these hits are likely to only be singles).

While Talbot is excellent against left-handed batters, he’s not bad against righties either, suggesting that he won’t necessarily need to be moved to the bullpen. Furthermore, he improved throughout the season – in the last two months, he struck out 64 batters in 64 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, so we can’t read too much into it, but it’s very possible that Talbot was continually improving throughout the season.

Of course, Talbot’s biggest problem at the moment is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s no higher than seventh on their starting pitching depth chart (and is in danger of being passed by Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson). However, odds are pretty good that the Rays will deal Edwin Jackson (or perhaps move him to the bullpen) to allow David Price into the rotation. Furthermore, starting pitchers are fragile – should any Rays pitcher get hurt (I’m looking at you, Scott), Talbot may be called up to fill in.

Finally, there is a very real chance that Talbot will be dealt within the next year, as the Rays look to shore up right field, designated hitter, and their bullpen.

Keep your eye very closely on Mitch Talbot. He’s ready to contribute to a major league team, and if he finds himself in a position to start every fifth day for any team, you may have yourself a late-round steal or excellent waiver wire pickup.

Playing on the same team and at the same position as the hottest player in the Arizona Fall League (Tyler Flowers of the Atlanta Braves organization), Lou Marson did not get a lot of press this past month. However, the 22-year-old backstop prospect is poised to surface in Philadelphia in 2009 – and he has above-average offensive potential at a position that does not traditionally generate a lot of production for fantasy baseball team owners.

Marson was selected out of an Arizona high school in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. His first three pro seasons were spent in relative obscurity thanks to average to below-average offensive numbers. Something clicked, though, in the summer of 2007 when Marson – then 21 – hit .288/.373/.407 with an ISO of .120 in 393 High-A at-bats.

The catcher, who swings from the right side, then improved even more in 2008 at the Double-A level, where he hit .314/.433/.416 in 322 at-bats and earned a one-game appearance at the Major League level. Marson still hasn’t shown much power (.102 ISO in 2008) but his eye at the plate has improved significantly – with an increase in BB% from 11.7 in 2007 to 17.4 in 2008. Marson also had a successful Arizona Fall League in Flowers’ shadow. The Philly’s prospect hit ..324/.425/.588 in 34 at-bats against some of the better pitching in the minor leagues.

Standing – or squatting – in Marson’s way to a Major League career are Carlos Ruiz, 29, and Chris Coste, 35. Both veteran catchers are right-handed and neither one had overly successful offensive seasons. Ruiz hit .219/.320/.300 with an ISO of .081 in .320 at-bats, while Coste managed a line of .263/.325/.423 with an ISO of .161 in 274 at-bats. Ruiz’ off season in 2008 definitely leaves him vulnerable to the incoming young talent. The organization’s second round pick from 2004, Jason Jaramillo, has also spent the last two seasons in Triple-A and should be a capable big league back-up whenever his skills are needed. The Phillies also recently added A-ball Australian prospect Joel Naughton to the 40-man roster.

A little more time at Triple-A certainly won’t hurt Marson, but he is close to being ready to contribute at the Major League level and add his name to the young, talented offensive core in Philadelphia.

When evaluating the statistical track record of a pitching prospect, I like to look at three main things:

Strikeout rate.

Walk rate.

Ground ball rate.

Obviously, components like velocity, scouting report, and the level at which the pitcher played are very important. But these three things tend to be the best way to quickly evaluate a pitching prospect. Guys who are above average in one of these three things can often be adequate major leaguers (assuming they can be above-average in the majors). Guys who are above average in two tend to be decent/pretty good major leaguers. And guys who are above average in all three tend to be very good.

David Huff is above average in all three.

Huff is not particularly dominant, and is unlikely to be an ace – either in real life, or in fantasy. However, he is above average in all three important factors. Furthermore, he throws in the low 90s and is very close to the majors.

Drafted in the first round back in 2006, Huff has shot through the Indians minor league system. He performed well in his first professional season in 2007 (he pitched in seven innings in 2006, but I won’t count those), posting a 46/15 K/BB ratio in 59 innings, while allowing only four homers. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 40.1% – but not a tremendous amount.

In 2008, Huff was promoted to double-A and improved in every area. At double-A Akron he posted a K/BB ratio of 62/14 in 65 innings, and induced grounders on 48% of his balls in play. Huff earned a promotion to triple-A, where he pitched in 80 innings, racking up 81 strikeouts while allowing only 15 walks. He even upped his ground ball percentage, inducing grounders on 50.9% of his balls in play. Furthermore, batters swung and missed at 9.8% of Huff’s pitches in triple-A (average at the major league level is around 7.5%).

In 2009, Huff is likely to begin the year in triple-A once again, as the Indians have several pitchers ahead of him on their depth chart, and they probably will not want him to begin accumulating service time on opening day. However, the Indians possess few pitchers who are as good as Huff, and the 24-year-old is almost certainly ready to perform at the major league level. Therefore, he will probably force his way into the Tribe’s rotation within the first month or two of the season.

David Huff doesn’t get a huge amount of strikeouts, or a huge amount of ground balls, but he’s shown the ability to accumulate an above-average amount of both. He’s also shown excellent control, which should be at least above-average at the major league level as well. Huff’s biggest strength is a lack of any pronounced weakness, and this should translate to a solid #3/4 starter in a big league rotation. While he lacks significant upside, Huff should be a nice late-round flier in AL only leagues (or very deep mixed leagues), and could be a nice addition off of the waiver wire in relatively shallow mixed leagues when he gets called up to the majors.

It’s rare for Major League Baseball teams to trade prospects straight up for one another, but that is exactly what happened this past week while clubs were finalizing 40-man rosters for the winter in advance of the Rule 5 draft in early December.

The Philadelphia Phillies, in need of a replacement for departing free agent Pat Burrell, traded Double-A outfielder Greg Golson, who appeared in six games with the big club, to the Texas Rangers for John Mayberry Jr., who had spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Golson, 23, was the 21st overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft out of a Texas high school. Mayberry was the 19th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft out of Stanford University.

Both players have very different skill sets. Golson is a raw, athletic player with speed and power potential. Mayberry has limited speed and athleticism, but a ton of power. Neither player currently projects to hit for a high average. In 2008, Golson hit .282/.335/.434 with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 426 at-bats. He posted rates of 7.4 BB% and a scary 30.5 K%. His ISO was .153.

Mayberry hit .268/.302/.512 in 21 Double-A games before moving up to Triple-A. At the higher level, he had a line of .263/.310/.474 with an ISO of .211 in 437 at-bats. Mayberry, 25, whose father John Sr., had a long Major League career, posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 19.5 K% at Triple-A.

Both players obviously have their strengths and weaknesses. And both players are likely to spend time at the Major League level in 2009 making the league minimum salary. Mayberry is currently in line to help fill the void left by Burrell, who hit .250/.367/.507 with an ISO of .257 in 2008. Mayberry could probably come close to Burrell’s production in terms of power – and average – but he’s not likely to walk over 100 times.

Golson, on the other hand, has a chance to open the season as the Rangers’ center fielder, which would allow Josh Hamilton, the incumbent, to slid to one of the corners. Golson, though, must keep looking over his shoulder with top prospect Julio Borbon – also a center fielder, coming off a breakout season, which was split between High-A and Double-A. Borbon is also quite possibly more advanced as a player at this point, which makes the trade a little perplexing from Texas’ standpoint. Golson’s 2009 MLB numbers will likely be little or no help to a fantasy baseball team – unless you’re looking for stolen base potential in an AL-only league.

Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?

Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.

All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.

Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.

Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.

Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.

Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.

If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.

Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.

Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.