Archive for Prospects

The Price is (Finally) Right for Rays

The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.

The Tampa Bay Rays organization has promoted LHP David Price from triple-A and he will start against Cleveland tonight (May 25). He’s taking the roster spot of veteran LHP Scott Kazmir, who was placed on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain. Many baseball experts expected Price to begin the season in Tampa Bay, but the organization claimed it was in Price’s best interest to get some more experience in the minors. Some cynics have suggested that the organization was merely trying to save money by delaying Price’s arbitration eligibility and free agency. Our very own Dave Cameron chimed in on this very topic back at the beginning of April.

With the formerly-first-place Toronto Blue Jays faltering, Tampa Bay is only four games out of first place, despite playing .500 ball to this point and being in fourth place in the American League East. One could look at the AL East race and say that Price’s presence on the Major League roster could have made a significant difference in the standings. The Rays are 10th in ERA, and third in most walks allowed, but the pitching as a whole has been mostly middle-of-the-road statistically speaking. In the starting rotation, though, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir have struggled mightily this season. Sonnanstine has allowed 63 hits in 46.1 innings, he has a 6.60 ERA and the club has won only four of his nine starts. Kazmir has allowed 60 hits in 45.2 innings with a 7.69 ERA. The club has won five of his nine starts. He’s lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball, and he’s not having any luck mixing in the slider more often.

Price, though, has not looked overly sharp himself this season – especially compared to his 2008 season, which ended with him pitching in the Major League playoffs. The left-hander had a 3.93 ERA (4.71 FIP) in triple-A and he allowed 28 hits in 34.1 innings of work. His walk rate was high at 4.72 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.17 K/9. Along with the control issues, his home run rate (1.31 HR/9) is also troubling. It could, though, be a case of under-performing after the letdown of being demoted to triple-A to begin the year. In his last minor league start, with whispers of an impending promotion, Price worked five no-hit innings with two walks and nine strikeouts against the Rochester Redwings squad (Minnesota’s affiliate).

If that is the case, and 2008 Price emerges in the Majors this year, then the Rays have a bright, shining beacon of hope for the 2009 season. He also has the potential to greatly aid fantasy baseball owners desperately in need of some strong pitching performances.

It’s only May – so it’s still anybody’s ball game.


Rookie Watcher: Who Wants It?

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

The American League

The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

The National League

The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.


Minor Impacts: May 21

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brian Matusz: The 2009 MLB amateur draft is just around the corner, so let’s take a look at one of the top picks from 2008 that has been absolutely dealing in high-A ball. Left-handed starter Brian Matusz is probably ready for the challenge of double-A, but Baltimore has been cautious with its top prospects in the last couple of years (including Matt Wieters and Jake Arrieta). Matusz currently has allowed 42 hits in 46.2 innings of work but his strikeout rate is really impressive at 11.57 K/9. His walk rate is OK at 3.63 BB/9. In his last three games, the southpaw has allowed six walks (including four in one game) but he’s kept hitters to just 14 hits in 19.2 innings, with 28 Ks.

Aaron Poreda: Like Matusz, Aaron Poreda is another former first-round draft pick. He’s taken a little longer to get the hang of pro ball, but he’s having a very nice season in double-A for the White Sox. In fact, it’s a little surprising that he hasn’t received a promotion to triple-A, after spending half of 2008 at the same minor league level – but it’s probably the base-on-balls. After walking 22 batters in 87.2 double-A innings in ’08, Poreda has issued 19 free passes in 33.1 innings this season. On the plus side, though, he has allowed just 23 hits and zero home runs. A two-pitch hurler, Poreda’s slider is just an OK pitch and it’s his fastball that will earn him a big-league job, as it has touched 100 mph. It’s probably about time Chicago bit the bullet and placed the big left-hander in the bullpen and began to groom him as Bobby Jenks‘ successor.

Hector Rondon: This right-hander burst upon the scene in 2008 and has continued to grow into one of the Indians’ top prospects. Hector Rondon currently has a 1.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) in double-A and has allowed 29 hits in 32.1 innings of work. His walk rate is at just 1.95 BB/9, down from an already respectable 2.61 from 2008. Rondon’s strikeout rate has dropped a bit from last year’s 9.00 K/9 but it’s still solid at 7.79 K/9. Impressively, he’s also allowed just one home run despite allowing more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs, which is the one thing he really needs to work on to take his game to the next level.

Josh Thole: Let’s go off the board now and talk about a couple players you probably have not heard much about. As a 13th round draft pick out of an Illinois high school in 2005, Josh Thole has understandably flown under the radar for a while. His blip began to show up on the radar in 2008 when he hit .300 in high-A ball. The catcher cannot hide any longer, though. Thole is currently hitting .349/.418/.476 in 32 double-A games at the age of 22. He’s also a left-handed hitting catcher, which is extremely valuable and somewhat rare. He’s still raw behind the plate though, having played mostly first base prior to 2008. Thole is showing signs of improving, as he has yet to make an error behind the dish and he’s improved his throwing, going from a caught-stealing rate of 22% in ’08 to 42% so far in ’09.

Cyle Hankerd: This talented outfielder is getting back on track. Cyle Hankerd had a dominating pro debut in 2006 after being selected out of USC in the third round of the draft. He hit more than .370 with 12 home runs in half a season and ended the year in high-A ball. The shine came off Hankerd over the next two seasons though, as he struggled to hit for power and his batting average kept dipping lower and lower. Repeating double-A in 2009, he’s starting to show signs of taking off again. The 24-year-old prospect is hitting .362/.434/.543 with an ISO of .181 in 36 games. Hankerd had wrist problems in 2007, which resulted in surgery. It often takes players about two years to recover from that type of injury, so the Arizona prospect’s surge could be related to finally being healthy. Although he has just three homers, Hankerd also has 12 doubles in 116 at-bats, which is just five fewer than he had in 436 at-bats last season. As long as he continues to show some sock in his bat, Hankerd has the chance to be at least a league-average left fielder.

Give the Guy a Chance: Cleveland’s Jordan Brown just cannot catch a break. The first baseman has been stuck in an organization that has had Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko blocking both the first base and designated hitter positions in the Majors. Then the club brought in left-fielder Matt LaPorta, a top offensive prospect from Milwaukee, whose best position is probably 1B or DH. Brown has a career minor league line of .303/.373/.464 in parts of five seasons since being selected out of the University of Arizona in the fourth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The biggest knock on Brown is his lack of power, but he has a similar skill set that that of former Indians first baseman Sean Casey, who put together a very solid 12-year MLB career. The left-handed batter is currently in triple-A Columbus hitting .348/.347/.583 in 34 games. At the very least, Brown should be a valuable pinch hitter for a National League team and he even has a career batting average of .293 versus southpaw pitchers.


Arencibia on Fire

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters, 23, is the best backstop prospect in all of professional baseball. He hit more than .350 last year with 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 82 walks, while splitting time between high-A and double-A.

But Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia was pretty good too. Playing at the same levels in 2008, the 23-year-old catcher hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI. His downfall, though, was his walk rate, which saw him take a free pass only 18 times in 510 at-bats.

Both catchers began 2009 in triple-A and both players had slow starts to the season, although Wieters was also hampered by a minor injury. Arencibia’s struggles may have been related to his approach at the plate and the better (smarter?) pitching he’s now facing. If you know a guy is going to swing at everything and won’t take a walk, why give him something to hit?

In 133 at-bats this season, Arencibia is hitting .314 when he’s ahead in the count. When he’s behind, though, he has a .179 average with zero walks. In April, Toronto’s top hitting prospect (now that Travis Snider is in Toronto) batted .224/.257/.358 with no home runs and no walks in 67 at-bats.

Fast-forward to May 19, though, and Arencibia is hitting .288/.356/.697 for the month (66 at-bats). Overall, his numbers have improved to a respectable .256/.308/.526 in 133 at-bats. He’s also slammed seven home runs this month. In his last 10 games, Arencibia is hitting .385 and has five of those home runs in just 39 at-bats.

Can we see any reasons why the numbers have improved? Well, it could be the warmer weather (although the club plays its home games in Las Vegas). It could be that his luck is improving and the BABIP (.257) is starting to creep up to where it should be. But it could also be the seven walks that the catcher has taken in May (16 games). The walks don’t directly equal success, obviously. But it means Arencibia is being more patient, seeing more pitches – and quite possibly hitting better pitches.

Only 16 picks separated Wieters, a Georgia Tech graduate, and Arencibia, from the University of Tennessee, in the first round of the 2007 draft. Wieters, selected fifth overall, will no doubt reach the Majors first – but Arencibia should not be far behind, especially if he continues to show a willingness to be more patience and selective at the plate.


Getting Ready to Bard the Door

The Boston Red Sox pitching depth is just getting ridiculous. This past off-season, I took a look at the incredible number of starting pitchers that the organization has that are ready to pitch in the Majors (which includes Michael Bowden, who is currently dealing in triple-A).

That depth is now starting to spill over into the bullpen. The club recently recalled Daniel Bard from triple-A. The right-hander is arguably the top relief prospect in all of baseball. Bard’s emergence is truly impressive, considering he all but flamed out in 2007 while pitching in high-A ball as a starter at one of best hitter’s parks (and leagues) in professional baseball. He posted a walk rate of 14.85 BB/9 in 13.1 innings and allowed 21 hits. His ERA was 10.13. The now-23-year-old hurler was demoted down to low-A that year where he posted a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Moved to the bullpen in 2008, Bard improved his walk rate to 1.29 in low-A ball, with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9, and then skipped over high-A and dominated double-A with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. At triple-A in 2009, he posted rates of 2.81 BB/9 and 16.31 K/9 in 16 innings of work. Bard allowed just six hits. His control is still iffy so there is room for improvement (which is a little scary to consider) and his mid-to-high-90s fastball is by far his best pitch, although the slider has improved a lot.

Now in the Red Sox bullpen, Bard will likely be used in low leverage situations (Thanks to the presence of Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and even Takashi Saito) and his previous experience as a starter will come in handy if the club needs to use him for two or three innings. There is no doubt, though, that he will be the club’s set-up man in the near future, as long as the improvements in his control hold (or improve). When Jonathan Papelbon’s time as closer expires for the Red Sox, Bard should be ready to assume that role as well.

With his high strikeout totals and dominating stuff, Bard will no doubt be of great value to fantasy baseball owners in the not-too-distant future. Just be patient.


Minor Impacts: May 14

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.


Rookie Watcher: Mediocrity Abounds

It’s been a couple of weeks since we last took a look at the Rookie of the Year races in both the American and National leagues, so let’s have a look at how the top freshman hitters in Major League Baseball are doing.

The American League:

Chris Getz (Chicago, 2B): Despite being slowed by a broken finger, Getz has pretty much done everything you could hope for from a second baseman: He’s played good defense, run a little bit, and hit for a respectable average (.274). Now at the top of the order, his .340 on-base average could be a little more impressive if he walked a bit more (6.7 BB%) but he’s putting the ball in play (9.5 K%). Getz is not having a flashy season, but it may be the most consistent amongst the rookies in the American League.

Elvis Andrus (Texas, SS): If you prefer flashy, Andrus is your man. The 20 year old’s defense (and range) is one of the main reasons why Texas is in first place in the American League West. His defense is only going to get better by watching (and listening) to veteran teammate Omar Vizquel. Offensively, he’s not embarrassing himself with a line of .273/.312/.409 but he could stand to run a little bit more on the base paths. After stealing 54 bases in 118 games in 2008, he has just three steals so far this season in the Majors.

Travis Snider (Toronto, LF): Batting ninth in Toronto’s potent (right now, anyway), first-place lineup, Snider is having an inconsistent season mainly due to his eagerness at the plate. He is swinging at pitchers’ pitches right now and not being patient enough. His line of .250/.305/.420 is a bit of a disappointment, but his strikeout rate of 20.5 K% is encouraging for a young slugger, who hasn’t been playing his best – especially considering his career rate was around 30 K% entering 2009.

Brett Gardner (New York, CF): During the course of the past two seasons, Gardner has combined to hit .228/.284/.290 in 70 big league games, which won’t cut it for most if not all teams – and definitely not the New York Yankees. With a career ISO below .100 and a walk rate under 10%, the 25-year-old rookie is quickly fading into a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And he likely has a smaller window of time to turn things around than many prospects would.

The National League:

Cameron Maybin (Florida, CF): It has been a disappointing season for the former No. 1 prospect, who was sent down to triple-A this past weekend. His line of .202/.280/.310, though, was just not cutting it, especially for a team battling to hold on to first place in the National League East division.

Travis Ishikawa (San Francisco, 1B): Ishikawa is another rookie that has been struggling, despite being platooned by the Giants. Overall, he is hitting just .219/.284/.288 with zero homers in 73 at-bats. The left-handed batter is hitting just .224 against right-handers. Jesus Guzman and John Bowker, both of whom can play 1B, are hitting very well in triple-A.

Chris Dickerson (Cincinnati, OF): In his last six games, Dickerson has received just six at-bats, while minor league journeymen Laynce Nix has seen an increase in playing time. Yes, Dickerson is scuffling (.197/.316/.288) but riding the pine is not going to help him. The Reds have a team loaded with young talent, but I maintain manager Dusty Baker should be in charge of a club that relies on veteran rosters – He’s not the right person to develop and guide young players.

Dexter Fowler (Colorado, CF): Fowler finally received regular playing time but after stealing five bases in one game on April 27, he’s gone just 3-for-14 (.214) with zero stolen bases and no extra base hits. His line is down to .258/.333/.382 and the Rockies organization is loaded with outfielders so he needs to get back on track.

Jordan Schafer (Atlanta, CF): He popped two homers in the first three games of his MLB career, but Schafer has not gone deep since (29 games and counting). More troubling is the fact that he has just two extra base hits in May, along with 20 strikeouts in 12 games. On the positive side, he does have 23 walks on the season (17.8 BB%).

Colby Rasmus (St. Louis, CF): It’s been a bad year for the rookie center fielders. Fowler and Rasmus are the best hitters of the bunch. Rasmus’ triple-slash line is an uninspiring .256/.337/.349. He’s actually hitting pretty good against right-handed pitching with a .299 average, but he is 2-for-19 against southpaws (.105 average). Rasmus could end up in a platoon role soon if he doesn’t show signs of improving in that area.

So, what other rookie hitters should we begin watching in the American and National leagues?


San Francisco’s Giant Pitching Prospects

The San Francisco Giants organization recently promoted its two top pitching prospects from high-A ball to double-A. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner and right-hander Tim Alderson – 2007 first-round picks out of high schools – have both taken slightly different paths through the minors but they should spend the bulk of the 2009 season together in double-A.

Bumgarner was the Giants’ first pick (10th overall) in 2007 out of a North Carolina high school. He signed late that year and did not make his debut until 2008. He skipped over both short-season and rookie ball by going straight to low-A ball. The league was not a problem for the lanky lefty, who went 15-3 and lead the league with a 1.46 ERA (1.71 FIP). Bumgarner dominated by allowing just 111 hits and posting rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9.

In order to avoid the cold weather of the double-A Eastern League, the Giants assigned the now 19-year-old pitcher to high-A San Jose. He posted a 1.48 ERA (2.05 FIP) with 20 hits and just four walks allowed in five starts. With the weather warming in Connecticut, Bumgarner was promoted to double-A last week. In his first start for the Defenders on May 11, Bumgarner faced the last-place New Britain Rock Cats (Minnesota’s affiliate) and allowed just one run in six innings of work. He allowed seven hits and no walks, while striking out two batters.

Alderson, 20, was the club’s second pick (20th overall) of the six selections it had before the second round in 2007 (The club lost a lot of players to free agency the previous winter). He showed excellent stuff and above-average control, but teams were scared away by his mechanics and delivery. Obviously, though, with Tim Lincecum in the big league rotation, the Giants organization is not scared off by unique pitchers.

Alderson, now 20, also took his sweet time signing his first pro contract, although he did make three appearances late in 2007. He did not allow a run or a walk in five rookie-ball innings. Alderson allowed just four hits and struck out 12 batters. The right-hander was so impressive that the Giants challenged him with a 2008 assignment to high-A ball, a move almost unheard of amongst prep draftees in their first full season. He rose to the challenge and went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA (2.64 FIP) with 125 hits allowed in 145.1 innings of work. Alderson posted a walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.68 K/9 during the course of the season.

Again, because of the weather in Connecticut, Alderson began 2009 by repeating high-A ball for five starts. Perhaps cruising a bit, the Arizona native allowed 31 hits and three walks in 26 innings. He also struck out 20. Along with Bumgarner, Alderson was promoted to double-A and he made his first start against the first-place New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto’s affiliate) on May 10. He did not allow a hit over 6.2 innings of work and was removed due to his pitch count. Alderson walked one and struck out 10 batters.

Bumgarner, 6’4” and 215 lbs, has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter. His repertoire includes a moving fastball that can touch the upper 90s. He has above-average command of the pitch. Because his fastball has been so dominating, his secondary pitches, a curveball and change-up, have suffered. He’ll definitely need to work on them to succeed in Double-A – and eventually the Majors.

Alderson, 6’7” and 220 lbs, has an average fastball at 88-92 mph but his command of the pitch makes it play up. His curveball is amongst the best in the minors and his change-up is improving. Alderson is also working to induce more ground balls, which he did effectively in his double-A debut. He could see the Majors by the end of the season – likely from the bullpen. He has the ceiling, though, of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Both pitchers have bright futures in the Majors and should be extremely valuable to not only the San Francisco Giants organization, but also fantasy baseball owners in keeper leagues.


Aramis Ramirez Replacement Brigade

An already-thin position took a hit this week with Aramis Ramirez hitting the DL with a separated shoulder. With the prognosis leaving him out for at least a month, owners are hitting the waiver wire in search of some short-term Maalox.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible short-term patches. Not all of them will soothe equally.

Adrian Beltre – Don’t think that Beltre is done just because it seems like he’s been around forever. You may be surprised to learn that he is only 30 years old. Possibly because of an oscillating line drive percentage (19% career, 15% currently), Beltre doesn’t own a great career BABIP (.291). That said, he’s current .260 number is unsustainable, and even if he ‘only’ pushes that number up to last year’s .279 level, the average will climb shortly. Perhaps it would help him center the ball if he quit swinging at more than 40% of balls outside the strike zone. Get that back to regular 30% levels and the line drive rate, BABIP, and average should all follow.

Mike Fontenot – How about A-Ram’s real-life replacement? Newly-acquired Ryan Freel and Fontenot will split up the at-bats at the hot corner for the Cubs, and both are decent players. While Freel is more of a speedy player, Fontenot actually has some nice pop. He’s hitting over 40% fly balls, and his double-digit HR/FB percentage (15.6%) looks sustainable when seen against last year’s totals. There are some black marks against the diminutive (5’ 8”, 170 lbs) infielder, however. His 10% line drive rate means that his .250 BABIP won’t necessarily move on it’s own accord. Since most of his contact, walk and strikeout percentages have been steady, it’s just a difficulty making solid contact that’s keeping Fontenot from being the best fantasy and real-life replacement.

Casey Blake – While Beltre is younger than most may think, Blake is older than most would guess. At 35 years old, his bat may also be slowing down. His contact rates are down across the board, and his current line drive rate (16%) is the worst of his career. He’s never had great batting averages, and calling the cavernous Dodger Stadium home (.857 park factor for home runs in 2008) doesn’t make him any more attractive.

Chase Headley – There’s some news in Padre-land, and it’s important to their third-base situation. Huge first-base prospect Kyle Blanks (6’ 6”, 270 lbs) is taking fly balls in left field, meaning that the team is at least considering pushing Headley back to third, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to a reserve role. The good news about Headley is that he’s cut down his strikeouts and is swinging less at balls outside the zone. There’s no number that leaps out and says that he’s been unlucky, but if he continues his natural progression and walks more like he did in the minors, he still has major upside.

Scott Rolen – Rolen may actually be the best short-term replacement for Aramis Ramirez. His BABIP is a tick high (.326) and his fly ball percentage a tick low (38.5%), but the best news is that he feels healthy and his lineup is providing him many ducks on the pond. The biggest worry, his 32% line drive rate, can’t be seen as too much of a negative. Sure, it’s a little high, but at least he’s seeing the ball well. As the line drive rate comes down, perhaps the fly ball rate will increase. Either way, he’s a solid run-producer that should put up the best batting average of the possible replacements.


Chris Coghlan Gets the Call

The Florida Marlins club has recalled its top middle infield prospect. Second baseman Chris Coghlan, who can also play third base, was brought up when right-hander Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The former supplemental first round pick out of the University of Mississippi in 2006 had been playing at Triple-A. He was hitting .344/.418/.552 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 96 at-bats.

Coghlan will likely see more time at third base rather than second, due to the presence of Dan Uggla at the keystone. As well, the Marlins’ current third baseman – Emilio Bonifacio – has been struggling recently after a scorching start to the season. Long term, though, Coghlan could afford the cost-conscious Marlins the luxury of trading Uggla (who has impressive power but poor defense) for much-needed inexpensive pitching depth.

Coghlan’s best position is second base due to his offensive profile, which includes average power at best. The left-handed batter slammed a career high 12 home runs in 2007 at the A-ball level. He hit just seven last year in Double-A, with an ISO of .130. Eventually, the 23 year old projects to be a 10-15 home run hitter. Although he is not a burner on the base paths, Coghlan has good speed and is a smart runner with 30 stolen base potential.

Sanchez’ injury also impacts the Marlins as it significantly damages the pitching depth for the big club, with starter Andrew Miller aleady on the DL. Sanchez is expected to be out about two months after his shoulder acted up this week (He had labrum surgery in 2007). Look for reliever Burke Badenhop to move from the bullpen to the rotation. The right-hander has been pitching in the bullpen for the Marlins. In five games, he had a 3.63 FIP with 10 hits and three walks in nine innings. Last season, the 26-year-old appeared in 13 games for the big club and made eight starts. He posted a 6.08 ERA (5.10 FIP) and allowed 55 hits and 21 walks in 47.1 innings. Badenhop has the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter and his fastball has been missing a couple miles per hour this season over last.