Archive for Prospects

The National League Rookie Pitchers

Well, we’ve already taken a look at the top rookie pitchers in the American League, so let’s have a gander at the Senior Circuit’s best young hurlers. Warning: The depth amongst the starters is not as good as it is in the American League.

The National League

St. Louis’ Jason Motte was absolutely lights-out in spring training and won the closer’s role… as much as any rookie pitcher can win a role for manager Tony LaRussa. A couple shaky games later, though, he was on the outside looking in. Motte hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last nine appearances but veteran Ryan Franklin has established himself as the club’s closer. Middle relievers rarely receive consideration for the Rookie of the Year award, but you never know.

One of my pre-season favorites for the NL rookie pitcher of the year, James McDonald has struggled to say the least. He currently has an 8.16 ERA (6.17 FIP) and has pitched himself out of the starting rotation for the first-place Dodgers. McDonald’s lack of control has been his downfall as he’s walked 14 batters in 14.1 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann won the No. 5 spot in the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation in spring training, but the club did not need five starters until the middle of the first month so he began the year in Triple-A. Since being recalled, Zimmermann has pitched well in two of his three starts (The stinker came against St. Louis). The 2007 second round draft pick is still getting comfortable in the Majors and he’s allowed 20 hits and three walks in 17 innings of work. He’s also struck out 14 batters. Zimmermann needs to try and avoid the long ball (2.12 HR/9). When all is said and done, the right-hander could have the best numbers of any of the rookie pitchers in 2009 but it remains to be seen if the Rookie of the Year voters will lose him in the mess that is Washington. His teammate Shairon Martis is also having a nice season so far in the Nats rotation.

Like Scott Richmond of the Jays, Bobby Parnell is another talented rookie hurler that gets overlooked despite playing in a large market like New York, likely because he is a middle reliever who gets a ton of outs by putting the ball in play. The right-hander has a 1.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 13 innings so far this season. He has walked just four batters with eight strikeouts and he hasn’t allowed a home run. Parnell still has room to get better as he has not been inducing quite as many groundballs as he traditionally does.

Honorable Mentions

It’s no secret that I hate the fact Japanese players are eligible for the Rookie if the Year awards. Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, 34, and Atlanta’s Kenshin Kawakami, 33, have years of experience while playing in Japan. Uehara spent nine years in the Japanese Central League and is currently leading all MLB ‘rookies’ in innings pitched and strikeouts (by one over Richmond). Kawakami, 33, spent 10 years in the Japanese Central League. Despite the added experience, though, the right-hander has struggled with his control and currently has a 6.41 ERA (5.54 FIP) in 26.2 innings of work.


The American League Rookie Pitchers

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing on the hitting side of things when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in both the American and National Leagues. In this post, we are going to take a look at the pitchers currently in the running for the year-end award in the AL. It seems to be a down year for rookie pitchers, though, with the likes of Tampa Bay’s David Price still in the minors.

The American League

If you’re an ERA fan, then Trevor Cahill’s 4.50 would probably lead you think, “OK, not great but it could be worse.” Well it is. The Oakland right-hander has allowed 27 hits and 18 walks in just 26 innings of work. He’s also added just eight strikeouts. With a line-drive rate of 24 percent, BABIP of .269, and a FIP of 6.37, he’s been lucky (while playing in a big home park) and he’s been bailed out by the defenders behind him. The 21-year-old could probably use a little more polish in the minors.

Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson has also had a rough go of things so far this year. Coming into the season, the 21-year-old lefty was considered a more advanced pitcher than most players his age but he’s still learning. Anderson has a 5.79 ERA (5.00 FIP) and has allowed 33 hits and nine walks in 28 innings of work. He’s also struck out an uncharacteristically low 4.5 batters per nine innings. In fairness, he’s faced three very tough lineups in Texas, Boston and New York (AL). Anderson is getting opponents to pound the ball into the ground (55.7 GB%) and they also are not hitting the ball with consistent authority against him (10.3 LD%). He’s going to see some good results soon.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello is another player who has been rushed to the Majors, after spending all of last season in high A-ball. The right-hander currently has allowed 28 hits and nine walks in 28.2 innings of work. Porcello has a 4.71 ERA (5.80 FIP) in his five starts. The six home runs allowed are worrisome (1.88 HR/9) but his groundball rate is good (52.1 GB%).

The sixth overall pick from the 2005 draft, Ricky Romero is still trying to live up to that lofty standard. In his first three starts of the season – after surprising everyone by nailing down a rotation spot in spring training – Romero was outstanding. He posted a 1.71 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 19 hits and just four walks in 21 innings of work. Unfortunately, he injured his oblique and hasn’t pitched since April 19. Fortunately for Toronto, he should be back within two weeks. The talent is there, he just needs to trust his stuff and hope he’s finally turned the corner with his command and control.

There may not be a rookie in the Majors who is flying more under the radar than Romero’s teammate Scott Richmond. The Canadian is a great story as a 29-year-old rookie. He took three years off school after high school and did not graduate from Oklahoma State University until he was 25, so he went undrafted. The Jays noticed him while he was pitching in independent baseball in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Within one year of signing, he pitched 27 innings for the Jays in 2008. So far this year, he has allowed 25 hits and 12 walks in 30.1 innings. He also has 26 strikeouts. Among MLB rookies, Richmond is second in strikeouts and innings pitched, as well as first in ERA and wins. He’s 12th in all of baseball in ERA amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched.


Matt LaPorta’s in the House

The Cleveland Indians organization finally made the move we all knew was coming the moment 1B/DH Travis Hafner hit the disabled list with another shoulder injury. The club promoted LF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta from Triple-A. LaPorta has crushed minor league pitching almost constantly since being the seventh overall selection in the 2007 draft. The right-handed batter was traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland in last year’s C.C. Sabathia deal.

He has massive power and could make an immediate impact in the Indians lineup, given appropriate playing time from manager Eric Wedge. LaPorta was hitting .333/.414/.640 with five homers in 75 at-bats for Triple-A Columbus. His walk rate has been constantly improving, which is encouraging, but you can expect him to strikeout 20-25 percent of the time.

LaPorta struggles against off-speed pitches so he’s going to see a lot of them early on in his MLB career. His career minor-league average is .292 but don’t expect him to hit for a high average right away. The power, though, should be there right from the get-go. He may get platooned early on, but he’s never really hit southpaws all that well with a career .237/.327/.452 line against them (compared to righties at .311/.407/.626).

The club also recalled infielder Luis Valbuena. He was picked up from the Seattle organization in the J.J. Putz trade this past off-season, which also saw outfielder Franklin Gutierrez head to Seattle. Valbuena has a little bit more pop in his bat than current Indians infielder Asdrubal Cabrera – who was also obtained from Seattle in an earlier trade back in 2006 – which can actually be a bad thing as he tries to muscle up from time-to-time. Valbuena has the chance to offer some stolen bases and a little pop, while also providing a respectable average. In other words, he’ll given a little bit of everything but he’s not going to be a star.

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*For an extra bit of info… Here is an interview I did with Matt LaPorta shortly before the Brewers selected him with the seventh overall pick in 2007.


Jays Promote Rookie Hurlers

The Toronto Blue Jays made a number of pitching moves this past week by demoting right-handed pitcher Bryan Bullington, as well as southpaws Brian Burres and David Purcey to Triple-A. The club promoted reliever Brian Wolfe as well as rookie hurlers Brett Cecil and Robert Ray to the Majors. Both Cecil and Ray are making their MLB debuts. Wolfe has had a number of stints with Toronto after originally coming to the organization from Milwaukee in a trade for third baseman Corey Koskie, who has since retired.

Cecil is the bigger name of the two prospects. He was originally acquired in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft out of the University of Maryland. The left-handed starter was a reliever in college but had a successful conversion to the starting rotation. Cecil, though, has battled injury problems. He was also struggling at Triple-A Las Vegas prior to his call-up and had an ERA above 8.00 in the very good hitter’s league. Cecil, though, may have been a victim of his defense to some degree as his FIP was just 3.72. He’s not a great bet in the short term for fantasy baseball owners because he is still working on his endurance and is a five-inning pitcher for the most part, which will limit his effectiveness in categories such as wins and strikeouts. Cecil also struggles with his fastball command a bit, but his control is at least average. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, good slider, curveball and developing change-up.

Ray is an interesting player and he – like Cecil and many of the Jays’ young pitchers – has battled injury problems. The right-hander missed significant portions of the 2006 and 2007 seasons after undergoing shoulder surgery. He showcased good stuff in college but was painfully inconsistent and those issues have plagued Ray in his pro career too. The Jays selected him in the seventh round of the 2005 draft out of Texas A&M. He has an average repertoire with an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider and splitter. His ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter, although he is probably better suited to relief. Ray actually began the 2009 season on the disabled list and actually had his rehab cut short when Triple-A Las Vegas needed pitchers. He made his MLB debut on Saturday against Baltimore and allowed three runs in 5.2 innings. Ray struggled a bit with his nerves (56 of his 90 pitches were for strikes) and walked four batters with just two strikeouts. He allowed just four hits.

As mentioned, neither pitcher is a great bet going forward in fantasy baseball for 2009. Cecil has a higher ceiling when considering overall careers, as a left-handed version of David Bush (a converted college reliever drafted in the first two rounds by Toronto and later traded to Milwaukee). Wolfe, the third player recalled, will likely serve as a long reliever and should have limited fantasy impact, save for the odd vulture win.


Rookie Roll Call: Anderson and Cahill

Now that we have several appearances worth of information to examine, this seems like a good time to take a brief look at some of the high-profile rookie pitchers in the majors this spring. How are Anderson, Porcello, Cahill et. al faring so far? After taking a peek at Porcello and Perry last time around, let’s now shift our focus out West to Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.

The Oakland Athletics are off to an inauspicious start in 2009. While fortunately residing in a division where a mid-80’s win total may well get the job done, the A’s have nonetheless collectively hit like a team of evil Jose Vidro doppelgangers (dead-last in wOBA at .288, while posting an MLB-worst .322 SLG% that’s 49 points lower than 29th-ranked Cincinnati).

While the bats have been slack, the pitching hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire thus far either: Oakland’s starters have compiled a 5.06 FIP, 24th in the majors. Two of the culprits in the early going are Anderson and Cahill, whose rookie years have gotten off to bumpy starts.

Anderson (profiled here) has a 5.24 FIP in 23.1 frames. The 6-4 lefty has displayed his deep four-pitch mix, with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 55.2% of the time), a 82.7 MPH slider (29.8%), a 74.7 MPH curve (4.4%) and a 83.3 MPH changeup (10.7%).

Looking at Anderson’s Pitch F/X data, you can see that his heater has slightly more tailing action in on lefties than most southpaw fastballs (7.4 inches, compared to the 6.5 inch average for LH). His slider has shown unusual depth: the pitch has -3.4 inches of vertical movement (meaning that the pitch drops 3.4 inches more than a ball thrown without spin). For comparison, the MLB average for lefty sliders is positive 1.8 inches.

To this point, however, that four-pitch assortment hasn’t yielded many swings and misses. Anderson has 14 K’s (5.4 per nine innings), while his contact percentage (88.6%) is well above the 80.6% MLB average.

On the positive side, the 21 year-old has continued a career-long trend of inducing grounders (54.5 GB%), and his control hasn’t been too shabby (3.09 BB/9). His FIP might look kind of ugly, but that’s partially the product of an elevated home run rate (1.54 HR/9) and HR/fly ball figure (13.8 HR/FB%- the average tends to hover around 11%).

Perhaps Anderson hasn’t hit the ground running, but he has held his own as a rookie whose only upper-level experience in the minors includes 31 innings at AA and a playoff stint with AAA Sacramento.

While Anderson has run into some occasional trouble, Trevor Cahill has found the strike zone about as often as A’s hitters have found themselves on base: it’s a rare occurrence. Oakland’s other prized pitching prospect (examined in more detail here) has dished out free passes like they were bobble head give-aways, walking 15 batters in 20 innings of work. Couple that lack of precision with just 7 K’s, and you have the recipe for a nasty 6.33 FIP.

While Cahill also features a fastball, slider, curve and a change, he has chosen to work almost exclusively with his cheese. Thrown at an average of 88 MPH, Cahill has thrown his fastball 85.8% of the time. That’s the third-highest rate in the majors, trailing only sinkerballer Aaron Cook and Bartolo Colon. Cahill’s other offerings have made just brief cameos: a 82.9 MPH slider (thrown 4.1%), a 78.4 MPH curve (2.2%) and a 78 MPH changeup (7.9%).

Given the 21 year-old’s difficulty in placing his sinker with the zone, opposing hitters have chosen to lay off Cahill’s pitches for the most part. Cahill is garnering swings on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone just 19.8% of the time, below the 24.3% MLB average. Overall, opponents have swung at Cahill’s stuff 40.5% of the time (44.5% MLB average).

Oakland’s dynamic duo might not be off to a rousing start, but they remain highly promising young arms who have been forced to make quite the dramatic leap in competition and skill. Anderson and Cahill should be near the top of any keeper league rankings for young starters.


Minor Impacts: April 30

Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players in the minor leagues who are on the cusp of helping out Major League Baseball teams (and by association – Fantasy Baseball managers) in 2009. This week it is the all-hitter edition.

Matt LaPorta: We wrote about LaPorta last week, but the big man keeps knockin’ on the door to the big leagues. He’s at .368/.436/.706 in 68 at-bats for Triple-A and has hit .405 in his last 10 games. In a positive sign for a slugger, LaPorta’s strikeout rate is on the decline for the third straight season, despite facing better competition. Both Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner have been hitting well, which has helped keep LaPorta in the minors, but the latter player just hit the disabled list. Keep your eyes on the transaction wire.

Matt Wieters: The top hitting prospect in the minors missed a handful of Triple-A games after suffering a minor injury on April 17. He’s back now, but he’s hitting just .238 (5-for-21) since his return. On the season, the catcher has a triple-slash line of .267/.382/.378 in 45 at-bats. With Baltimore’s No. 1 catcher, veteran Gregg Zaun, hitting .111/.238/.185 in 54 at-bats, there isn’t much between Wieters and the beginning of his MLB career.

Adrian Cardenas: Oakland needs some serious offensive help, or the club is going to fade off into the AL West sunset. The team is last in the American League in batting average (.233), runs scored (75), doubles (24) and home runs (with a paltry eight, or one less than MLB leader Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres). Offensively, Cardenas would be a step up at second base, third base, or shortstop, where the trio of Mark Ellis, Eric Chavez and Orlando Cabrera have combined for a .201 average and zero homers. Cardenas, 21, is currently hitting .355/.410/.579 with 14 extra base hits, as well as a healthy dose of walks.

Wilkin Ramirez: Ramirez, 23, could offer Detroit an offensive boost, but where should the club play him? The outfield is full right now – although everyone but Josh Anderson is scuffling. Carlos Guillen is clogging up the designated hitter’s spot, but he too is struggling. As a result, Ramirez will have to bide his time in Triple-A and wait for an injury. The converted third baseman is currently hitting .313/.371/.438 with just one homer and six stolen bases. He missed the 20-20 club by one home runs in Double-A last season, and also hit more than .300.

Sleeper Alert

Bryan Petersen: If the Florida Marlins organization decides center-fielder Cameron Maybin needs a little more seasoning in the minors (.190 avg, 38.1 K%), it might look like the club would have to rely on the likes of Brett Carroll, Jai Miller, or Alejandro De Aza. But take a look down into Double-A where a young prospect by the name of Bryan Petersen is currently playing. He’s more of a corner outfielder, but he has the speed to play center – at least in the short term. Things really started to click for Petersen, 23, in the second half of last season and that success has carried over into the 2009 season. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .288/.355/.424 with five stolen bases in 66 at-bats. The biggest negatives in his game right now are the strikeouts (22.7 K%) and the average against southpaws (.188). Petersen, though, has 20-20 potential.

He Deserves a Break

Josh Whitesell: Poor Mr. Whitesell. He just cannot catch a break. The left-handed first baseman just turned 27 and he has a total of seven big league at-bats. Whitesell hit .328/.425/.568 in Triple-A last year and is tearing the cover off the ball again at the same level in ’09 with a line of .364/.475/.545 in 66 at-bats. He hits for average, power, drives in runs and walks more than his fair share. What does a guy have to do to get a break? Ah, but the D-backs have 36-year-old Tony Clark filling the pinch hitter/back-up first baseman role. After hitting .206/.338/.333 for Arizona last year, Clark is now following up that very successful campaign with a line of .160/.250/.400 and 13 strikeouts in 25 at-bats.


Melancon Versus Bowden, Round 1

Compared to the rest of the three-game series, the match-up on Sunday between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees was fairly unassuming. There were not 27 runs scored collectively and the game did not end in walk-off fashion in extra innings. However, two key players for both organizations’ futures squared off against one another.

Mark Melancon was called into the game for the Yankees in the seventh inning of the game, which was eventually won 4-1 by Boston. The right-handed reliever, making his MLB debut, worked two scoreless innings and allowed just one hit and one walk. He also struck out one batter and hit outfielder Jason Bay with a pitch. Melancon, 24, was originally drafted out of the University of Arizona in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, although he could have been a first-round pick if not for an elbow strain that later required Tommy John surgery. Melancon struggled a bit with his control in his debut (12 of 22 pitches were strikes) but he showed excellent velocity and life on his fastball.

From the other dugout, minor league starter Michael Bowden emerged and also pitched the seventh and eighth innings. He had been recalled from Triple-A before the game to give the relievers some much-needed relief. The right-hander did not allow a run, a walk or a hit over two innings. He stuck out two. Only 22, Bowden was able to mix his plus curveball and fastball very effectively to dominate some very good hitters. In most organizations, he would already be in the starting rotation. In Boston, though, the pitching depth affords him the luxury of polishing his repertoire and approach at the Triple-A level, while also providing valuable insurance for situations like that which occurred on Sunday. Bowden was a supplemental first round selection out of an Illinois high school during the 2005 draft.

Bowden was sent back down to Triple-A after the game on Sunday, making room for veteran shortstop Julio Lugo, who came off the disabled list. Melancon will remain with the Yankees for now, with veteran reliever Brian Bruney on the disabled list. Neither player will likely have a huge impact on their respective clubs in 2009, but both are good bets moving forward for 2010 and beyond: Bowden with the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter and Melancon with closer potential.


Rookie Watcher

Games: Sunday, April 26, 2009
Following the race to the American League and
National League Rookie of the Year awards.

National League:

Cameron Maybin | CF | Florida Marlins
Opponent: LHP Jamie Moyer (Philadelphia
Result: 0-for-5, 3 Ks
Trending: Maybin is three for his last 21 with 8 Ks.
Notes: Maybin started the year off with a little gusto, but the strikeouts are piling up as the average drops. His 2009 season so far is looking a lot like his debut appearance in 2007 with Detroit when he hit .143/.208/.265 in 49 at-bats.

Travis Ishikawa | 1B | San Francisco
Opponent: RHP Jon Garland (Arizona)
Result: 0-for-5, 2 K
Trending: He has one walk in 47 at-bats.
Notes: Ishikawa is being platooned and has just five at-bats against left-handers. It’s not helping him much,though, as he’s batting just .214 against right-handers.

Chris Dickerson | OF | Cincinnati
Opponent: RHP Kenshin Kawakami (Atlanta)
Result: 0-for-1 pinch hitting
Trending: He’s averaging almost one K per game.
Notes: Dickerson walked five times in his first five games and went 3-for-10. He then went seven games without a walk and went 1-for-18.

Dexter Fowler | OF | Colorado
Opponent: LHP Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles NL)
Result: 3-for-4, 2B, run, RBI, CS
Trending: He hasn’t struck out in eight games. He’s hitting .400 at home, .207 on the road.
Notes: Still not officially playing everyday, Fowler is doing a little bit of everything (Defense, Average, Power, and Speed) and already has four multi-hit games.

Jordan Schafer | CF | Atlanta
Opponent: RHP Micah Owings (Cincinnati)
Result: 0-for-3, three strikeouts
Trending: He’s striking out a lot (37.3 K%) but he’s also walking more than the average rookie (16.9 BB%).
Notes: Schafer caught a lot of people’s attention by hitting two homers in his first 10 at-bats, but he hasn’t gone yard in the last 15 games. He has actually had just three extra base hits during that time. Schafer also has yet to steal a base after regularly nabbing double digits in steals each year in the minors.

Colby Rasmus | CF | St. Louis
Opponent: RHP Rich Harden (Chicago NL)
Result: 1-for-5, three K
Trending: Rasmus is seven for his last 17.
Notes: The left-handed hitter is just 2-for-13 against southpaws, but he’s struck out just three times and has four walks. He’s batting .342 against right-handed pitchers.

American League:

Chris Getz | 2B | Chicago
Opponent: RHP Roy Halladay (Toronto)
Result: Did Not Play (Injury)
Trending: A LH hitter, he’s 2-for-5 against southpaws
Notes: Getz has a broken bone on the tip of his finger but there is no word on how much time he might miss. He was seven for his last 13 before the injury and has been hitting at the top of the White Sox’ order.

Elvis Andrus | SS | Texas
Opponent: RHP Brad Bergesen (Orioles)
Result: 1-for-3
Trending: Andrus is two for his last 17 with no walks and just one K.
Notes: Andrus remains valuable, even with a hollow .275 average, because of his defense. It might be nice if he tried to run a bit, though.

Travis Snider | LF | Toronto
Opponent: RHP Jose Contreras (White Sox)
Result: 1-for-4, K
Trending: Snider is 2-for-10 against LHPs with four Ks.
Notes: Snider was eaten up by Contreras’ splitter, but learned from his mistakes as the game progressed. He’s been swinging at a lot of first pitches recently and needs to get into better hitter’s counts.

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Opponent: RHP Justin Masterson (Boston)
Result: 0-for-3, K, RBI
Trending: Gardner is five for six in stolen base attempts.
Notes: He has no extra base hits in 10 games and he’s walked only twice during that time. Unfortunately, Gardner isn’t hitting for average either.


Rookie Roll Call: Porcello and Perry

Now that we have several appearances worth of information to examine, this seems like a good time to take a brief look at some of the high-profile rookie pitchers in the majors this spring. How are Anderson, Porcello, Cahill et. al faring so far? Let’s start finding out, beginning with Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry of the Tigers.

Rick Porcello

Porcello, a 2007 bonus baby we chronicled earlier this spring, jumped straight from the High-A Florida State League to the majors. Thus far, the 20 year-old has shown flashes of the worm-burning, efficient style that earns him some optimistic Roy Halladay comparisons. In 18 innings, Porcello has struck out 11 batters while issuing 3 walks, posting a 52.5 GB%.

His Pitch F/X data backs up the scouting reports perfectly: Porcello throws a heavy, sinking heater with an abundance of tailing action in on righties (his “fastball” has 9.6 inches of tail with just 5.3 inches of vertical movement, and his “two seamer” bores in on the hands with 11.2 inches of inward break and just 3.9 inches of vertical movement). His curveball has shown a little more depth than most (6.3 inches of dropping action, compared to the 5.5 major league average), and the changeup mirrors the fastball in terms of horizontal movement (10.7 inches of tail) while actually coming in higher than either the regular fastball or two-seamer (6.7 inches of vertical movement).

Unfortunately, Porcello has struggled with the long ball, surrendering 5 taters already (2.5 HR/9). Given the groundball tendencies and the wacky HR/FB rate (27.8%), that figure will trend down significantly in the coming months.

Ryan Perry

Perry, a 2008 first-rounder out of Arizona, is basically Porcello’s polar opposite on the mound. While Porcello relies on sink and movement on his cheese, Perry rears back and fires mid-90’s gas that’s straight as an arrow. Perry’s hopping four-seam fastball (thrown in excess of 80% of his total pitches) has just 4.2 inches of tail, while averaging 95.7 MPH. Supplementing his cheddar with a mid-80’s slider, the 22 year-old essentially dares opposing batters to display quick enough reflexes to make solid contact.

Perry has surrendered one run in 5.1 frames, whiffing five while issuing four free passes. Not that you can put a whole lot of stock in seven early-season appearances, but the former Wildcat has experienced his share of difficulty in keeping the ball over the plate. His 31.8 first-pitch strike percentage is last among relievers, and just 44.9% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (49% average). Consequently, hitters are content to keep the bat on the shoulder against the wild rookie, taking a cut at just 38.2% of Perry’s offerings (44.5% average).


Pirate Diaz Could Steal Treasured Role from Jaramillo

With a wrist injury sidelining No. 1 catcher Ryan Doumit for eight to 10 weeks, the backstop duties will fall to a pair of rookies: Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz. The former Phillies prospect, Jaramillo, will likely see the bulk of playing time early on due to A) The fact he was on the 25-man roster before the injury, B) His defensive reputation, and C) The manager’s familiarity with him from their time in the Phillies system.

However, don’t count out Diaz from wrestling the No. 1 gig away from Jaramillo before the first month is up. Diaz is an absolute freak as a hitter. He’s a classic bad-ball hitter in the same vein as Vlad Guerrero; he’s never met a pitch he couldn’t swing at – and make contact with. His minor league triple-slash line says it all: .304/.340/.391… Great average, few walks, almost no power. During the past three seasons, Diaz’ walk rate has hovered around 4.0 BB% (because he swings at everything) and his strikeout rate has been around 9.0 K% (because he makes contact with almost anything). The walk rate would be a little more worrisome if it were not for his consistent ability to hit .300, which compensates somewhat.

For a catcher, a .300 batting average is pretty impressive (especially if you’re running a fantasy team). Diaz also has the potential to offer some defensive flexibility. In the past, the athletic catcher has seen time at third base and second base. There was even talk of trying him in the outfield. During his prime prospect days in the Jays system, the 25-year-old catcher was 5’11” and 170-180 lbs. Some reports now have Diaz pushing over the 200 lbs mark, which would suggest his days of playing second base might be over, but he could still definitely help out at third, first and possibly a corner outfield spot.

A few years ago, there was a near riot amongst the Jays’ minor league pitching staff that was pitching to Diaz. While conversing a number of times with one specific Jays minor league pitcher, he would speak of what little effort Diaz put into the defensive side of his game – especially his game calling. But that, of course, was just one side of the story. And, to be even more fair, it was three years ago and the scouting reports are more favorable now.

Diaz has made strides in his defensive game. He even threw out about 40 percent of runners trying to steal last season. Both his range and fielding percentages have improved in the past two seasons. His game calling is still not a strong suit, but at least games can be called from the dugout, and he has a good person to learn from in the form of Pirates manager John Russell, a former catcher for parts of 10 MLB seasons. There is also room for improvements on blocking balls and receiving.

I once had a Jays official tell me that Diaz could be as successful in the game as he wanted to be. Translation: He sometimes lacks motivation, and is happy to get by on natural talent more often than not. It’s a lot harder to coast on talent alone in the Majors. There are players who do it, no doubt. But unlike the minors, the media glare is much brighter and the veteran players are vocal in most clubhouses. There are some players, like Hanley Ramirez, that post better numbers in the Majors than they did in the minors, quite possibly for that reason. Diaz could very well turn out to be one of those players if given the opportunity.