In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.
In the last of my posts trying to translate my look at the predictability of pitchers’ spring peripherals into actionable advice, I examine those pitchers whose walk rates were much higher than their Steamer projections for the regular season. These are the guys there might be some cause for concern, as opposed to the potential BB% improvers, whose spring hint at a potential step forward with their control.
On Monday, I published the findings of a study that determined spring K% and BB% were actually meaningful for pitchers. On Wednesday, I looked at pitchers whose spring K% were well above what the Steamer projections were expected, while I looked at the other side on Thursday, those pitchers whose spring K% is well below Steamer’s projected season mark. Today I am looking at BB% and will start with the pitchers who have displayed much better control than anticipated.
A week and a half ago, I published my American League starting pitcher tiers, which were based on my projections and ranked pitchers in descending order of dollar value. One of the bigger surprises was C.J. Wilson landing in the third tier, ranking 16th among all AL starters. This ranking was behind guys like Brandon Morrow, Colby Lewis and Max Scherzer, who it is likely that the vast majority of fantasy owners would draft much later than Wilson. So why am I down on Wilson? Let me count the reasons.
After discovering on Monday that K% and BB% are indeed meaningful for pitchers during spring training, I looked at which starters might see a better K% than initially projected given their spring performance. Today I look at the opposite end of the coin, those who are in for a potential decline in their K% based on what they have done in the spring so far. Again, I compared their spring K% to their Steamer projected K% and looked at the largest differences on the negative end of the spectrum.
On Monday with the help of Matt Swartz, I determined that spring training statistics are not completely meaningless after all. Strikeout percentage (K%) and walk percentage (BB%) should indeed be taken into consideration when projecting the upcoming season.
With that in mind, it may be possible to get a foreshadowing of who the breakout and bust pitchers are for the year. Today I decided to look at the 10 pitchers whose spring K% is the most different from their Steamer projection, as in, their spring K% is much higher than the projection. I used Steamer because it has become my favorite pitching projection system and performed the best in the latest round of tests between systems.
We have a segment on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable show called “Are You Crazy?”. The idea is to throw out a bold prediction and then the rest of the panelists debate whether the forecaster is crazy or not. We assume 20% as the baseline, meaning if there is a 20% chance of the prediction coming true, it is not crazy. On last night’s show, I stepped up to the plate and boldly predicted that Francisco Liriano would be a top 8 pitcher. However, for this post, I will be slightly less ballsy and go top 10. Now let me explain why there is at least a 20% chance of such insanity happening.
You’ve read the consensus rankings, complained about them and have been no doubt counting down the minutes until the tiered rankings are released. Well, it’s your lucky day, as your final 2012 rankings sit below. Yes, my crystal ball is that good, it already knows how the season will play out.
Yesterday, I made some bold predictions for the league leaders in the five fantasy hitting categories. Today, I check in on the pitching side of the ledger with some equally crazy forecasts.
My crystal ball doesn’t just see the future of random players and how it relates to fantasy leagues. It also knows who will be leading the league in each 5×5 category! Who knew a crystal ball could be so valuable? I will now boldly unveil your 2012 hitting league leaders…
