One of my favorite Topps baseball card series is the Gypsy Queen collection. Typically released at the beginning of the season, this series has special inserts, such as the Crystal Gazing Die-Cuts, that serve as the Topps version of a bold prediction. I like to think of myself as a machine learning, gypsy fortune telling, bold predictor. I’ve created a model, one that I’m still partially developing, named Jolt after Joe “Joltin’ Joe” DiMaggio himself. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pre-Season Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Hitters

• Ronald Acuna Jr.
• Fernando Tatis Jr.
• Evan White
• Julio Rodriguez
• Brandon Belt
• Adley Rutschman
• Odubel Herrera
• Andrew Vaughn
• Luis Urias
• Chris Taylor
• Cavan Biggio
• Greg Bird
• Carter Kieboom
  • Maikel Franco
• Evan Longoria
  • Wilmer Flores
• Nick Ahmed
  • Josh Rojas
• Yermin Mercedes
• Dominic Smith
  • Mets lineup & defensive allignment

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The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Tout Wars Head to Head Recap

Strategy Section

• General Draft Strategy
  • Push up saves/steals/starters? What is the right time to roster them?
• KDS Selection for 2022
• What is the best time to reach for your “favorites,” “targets” or “upside players?
• Should you draft prospects in redraft leagues?

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The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include over 550 player forecasts! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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The Spring Training Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Williams

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Strategy Section

• What can we learn from this year’s Spring training?
  • How will 2022 be different?
• How will the start of the 2022 season differ from a typical season?
• Using middle relievers in fantasy baseball early on in the 2022 season.
• The return of 9-inning doubleheaders.
• Fantasy leagues – Drafting in 2022
  • Should we push off drafting our 2022 fantasy teams until after the season starts?
  • Drafting early in the morning.

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The Expert League Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Williams

LABR Reacap

• Overall thoughts
• Closer strategy
• When to drop out of bidding wars
  • How much is too much to pay?
  • The economincs of waiting to nominate desired players in the auction
• Nomination strategy
  • Nominate players that you want to buy or players that you don’t?
• Franmil Reyes
• Catcher strategy
• Draft regrets

TGFBI Recap

• Noticeable trends
• Grabbing players earlier than ADP
  • Akil Baddoo
• Big decisions

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include over 550 player forecasts! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I compared my starting pitcher ERA Pod Projections to Steamer and discussed what was driving the gap. Let’s now review the pitchers I’m projecting for a worse ERA than Steamer. Remember in yesterday’s article I mentioned that my ERA projections are lower in aggregate, so the gaps are much smaller here. The important part is the ERA relative to the projection set, so these are larger differences than the absolute gaps would indicate.

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After comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer for bother home runs and stolen bases, let’s now flip over to starting pitchers. This comparison is far easier, as it’s a ratio stat and therefore won’t need to be converted to the same PA scale. So let’s find out which starting pitchers I am forecasting for an ERA that is most below what Steamer is forecasting.

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The Relief Pitcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Greg Jewett & Eric Samulski

Strategy Section

• General 2022 closer landscape & draft strategy
• FAAB capital vs. Draft captial for closers – which is more efficient?
• Holds / Saves+Holds leagues
• Closer Handcuffs for 2022
  • Giants
  • Padres
• Reuven’s Closer Questions
  • Should you choose closers that are on good teams?
  • Pick closers based on skill?
  • Avoid closers who could be traded?
  • Avoid closer by committee situations?
  • Avoid certain teams all together with lousy players?

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