The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).
2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
Tommy Pham
Last week and earlier this week, I highlighted a group of hitters who my Pod Projections projected stolen base upside and stolen base downside compared to Steamer projections. Until I performed the comparison, I had no idea I was so bearish on steals, relative to both Steamer and to 2017.
The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).
2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!). Given the hype and the difficulties of translating performance from a foreign league, it was obvious who the first player for this series should be — Japanese uber-athlete Shohei Ohtani.
Alas, we have finally reached our final 2017 preseason article recap! Welllll, this one shouldn’t have been the last one, but no one wants to read a recap of my David Dahl Pod Projection, right? So we wrap things up by reviewing my Pod Projection for curveball aficionado Lance McCullers, who was coming off around 200 innings of 3.22 ERA ball supported by strong skills over his first two seasons. Health was a question mark, but there was no doubting his talent. Let’s remind ourselves what I forecasted for his 2017 performance and how he actually performed.
Today let’s continue recapping one of my 2017 Pod Projections, this time heading to Milwaukee to discuss Keon Broxton. Coming off an intriguing half-season in 2016 that featured an exciting blend of power and speed, along with some clear flaws, he was a popular sleeper for 2017 and one whose projections people couldn’t really settle on. So what was I projecting and how did that compare to his actual results? Let’s find out.
Moving along on our recaps of my 2017 Pod Projections, we stumble upon Trea Turner, who delivered a fantasy half-season back in 2016 that made him the talk of the town heading into 2017 drafts. He was so darn good, he was generally a first round pick. How much, if any, regression was I projecting and how did that compare to his actual results? Let’s find out.
It’s time to recap some of my 2017 Pod Projections! This preseason, I begun the series with one of 2016’s most surprising pitchers, Kyle Hendricks. We all figured that even backed by the historically strong Cubs defense, he was quite a bit fortunate en route to a sub-3.00 ERA. But how much regression was I projecting and how did that compare to his actual results? Let’s find out.
Yesterday, I shared with you a trade I made in the keeper league in which I took over for an inactive team a couple of months ago. It was a classic dump deal, with me acquiring who I considered one of the top two keepers in the league — super prospect Yoan Moncada. We’re still in the middle of August, so we’ll have another month and a half worth of Major League stats with which to evaluate Moncada and put together a 2018 projection. But I don’t want to wait a month and a half and you probably don’t either. So let’s take a stab at an early 2018 projection, along with a dollar value for that stat line.
We are officially in the second half of the season. I know, I know, people like to call the All Star Break the middle point. I can understand why, it is a natural (artificial) divider in the season in the same way a river or a mountain range may divide countries. Personally, I prefer to look at the game totals, and there are fewer ahead of us than there are behind us.
Players who got off to hot starts have mostly come back to Earth. Mostly. Aaron Judge is seems to have enough delta v to effect an Hohmann transfer, so he could be leaving Earth at any moment. Beyond that, players should be settling into their normal, expected production for the season.
Speaking of expected production, the halfway point seems to be a good time to take a look at power numbers, particularly home runs. For the past few years I have run a little side project called Citi Field Homeruns, where I meticulously track the home runs in Citi Field, aiming to measure the impact of changing ballpark dimensions. Okay, so this explanation is largely irrelevant to my goal here, other than to establish a few small pieces of information: Read the rest of this entry »
