A First Stab at Projecting Yoan Moncada

Yesterday, I shared with you a trade I made in the keeper league in which I took over for an inactive team a couple of months ago. It was a classic dump deal, with me acquiring who I considered one of the top two keepers in the league — super prospect Yoan Moncada. We’re still in the middle of August, so we’ll have another month and a half worth of Major League stats with which to evaluate Moncada and put together a 2018 projection. But I don’t want to wait a month and a half and you probably don’t either. So let’s take a stab at an early 2018 projection, along with a dollar value for that stat line.

In 89 MLB plate appearances so far this year, Moncada has pretty much been exactly the type of player we had expected. He has shown elite plate patience, both swinging at pitches outside the zone and at pitches overall less frequently than the average, while taking a walk nearly double the league rate. He has also displayed some power, posting a .151 ISO and 16.7% HR/FB rate, along with a 45.2% Hard%. And although he has yet to swipe a base after stealing 17 at Triple-A, he has attempted two steals, but was caught both times.

However, the biggest concern we had about Moncada’s near-term future was his strikeout rate. And unfortunately, he has done nothing to quell those concerns. His SwStk% of 14.3% isn’t outrageous, and lower than many sluggers, but it’s still high, especially for someone who has only shown moderate power. But the combination of his patience, along with whiffing when he does swing, has resulted in an inflated 34.8% strikeout rate. The strikeouts will be key to his fantasy value next year. If he gets that rate down into the low-to-mid 20% range, he becomes an elite middle infielder.

Let’s see what ZiPS and Steamer think, using their current rest of season projections extrapolated out to 600 plate appearances. Then I’ll run the stat line through my dollar value spreadsheet, which is based on a 12-team league with standard 23-man rosters. Right or wrong, my values seem to yield larger gaps in batting average value (meaning the top average guys would earn more than another system, while the bottom average guys would lose more in value in that category), so being a potential low average guy, Moncada could be worth less in the system I use versus another.

Yes, that’s $6 in value simply for those 10 additional steals, as the rest of the numbers are nearly identical between the two systems. So even hitting just .234, and compiling a measly 123 R+RBI, ZiPS’ forecasted line yields a $14 value in my spreadsheet, which would perhaps be even higher in another system. The R+RBI numbers will depend heavily on his spot in the lineup, with his potential on base ability and the White Sox possessing no clear top of the order hitter, Moncada has a good chance of ending up there, which would boost his runs scored total significantly.

Now let’s get to projecting him using additional underlying metrics and following the Pod Projection process.

LOL, I just traded the farm for a $4 guy?! Without boring you with all the details of the skills driving these projections, I am a bit more cautious than the systems about his home run power, but everything else is surprisingly close. And even though the batting average is identical to ZiPS, the fewer homers and steals represents too great a value loss to offset, making him barely above replacement.

But what if I lowered his strikeout rate to 26%? He’s now a .251 hitter, all his counting stats rise, and suddenly he’s worth $10! How about if I drop that strikeout rate another 4% to 22%? He’s now projected to hit .267 and earn $15. Kris Bryant has done it. Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Smoak did it this year. According to the aging curve research performed by Jeff Zimmerman several years ago, hitters improve their strikeout rates at an early age, before the mark rises gradually until retirement. But while obviously strikeout rate is important for everyone, there’s huge variance with Moncada and since he’s a basestealer, it has a larger effect on his potential value than most other players.

Helping matters is that Moncada has always posted huge BABIP marks in the minors. While his line drive skill hasn’t manifested yet at the big league level, he has posted an LD% above 26% at every minor league stop since High-A. Coupled with his speed and power, he could BABIP his way to a reasonable average even with a high strikeout rate. Of course, he’s going to be worth even more in leagues that count OBP instead, and since in my experience the stat is routinely misvalued, he could be a bargain, as he has monster potential in such a format.

So there’s a lot we’re going to learn over the next month and a half, with perhaps the most important piece of information being his ability to make contact. But there’s no denying the fantasy potential here — 20 to 25 homers and 35-40 steals would be the ultimate upside, all at second base. Depending on how he finishes the season, he could be one of the hypiest players in drafts and auctions next year going for ridiculous prices, leaving little room for profit, or a fair price that represents a strong risk/reward scenario. Personally, I’m excited about the opportunity to roster him in AL-Only Tout Wars that uses OBP.