Shane Bieber made his MLB debut Thursday evening, throwing 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks against the Minnesota Twins and it’s hard not to get wrapped up in the exctiement. Hype is part of the fun of fantasy baseball and Bieber’s was tantalizing with just 15 walks allowed in all 262.2 IP thrown in the minors. While his role moving forward is in question – the Indians don’t need a fifth starter until June 12th and it could easily be Adam Plutko – we were given a glimpse at a pitcher that will make plenty more starts in the future and I want to talk about it.

And I’m going to upfront about this one. No gimmicks, no teases, no drama for the sake of my own indulgences.

I didn’t like what I saw.

That may be a bit harsh and I’ll show in this article each nook and cranny of Bieber’s debut that hinted at something better, but there will be more about what makes me concerned from a fantasy perspective than excited for the future.

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I did not have high expectations for Alex Wood heading into this season. His early 2017 success was fueled by an uptick in velocity that dwindled through the year, he hadn’t eclipsed 153 innings since 2015, and the Dodgers are, ahem, interesting with their starting rotations. I didn’t expect the shiny new-out-of-the-box 2017 edition Alex Wood to be the real Alex Wood.

And as expected, Wood’s velocity has been dramatically low in 2018, boasting a 90mph sinker after last season’s 92mph average (and averaging 93mph in the opening months), but you wouldn’t have known it if you compared his numbers:

I love this. The end result is the same, though Wood’s lower velocity should tell you that he can’t be holding the same approach for the same results. It’s not out of the question, but seeing his dip in heat has to make you believe there is something else going on under the hood.

And there is.
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It would be very easy for me to be a fan of Tyler Skaggs. He’s more than a sparkling 2.88 ERA or 25% strikeout rate, he’s someone who boosted his groundball clip comfortably over 50%, buffed his swinging-strike rate 2.5 points to 10.7%b and not even DIPS metrics such as his 3.34 FIP or 3.58 SIERA suggest a mask hiding an ugly truth. It shouts a popular sentiment in the fantasy world:

Tyler Skaggs has figured it out.

I’m here today to tell you that this is a myth.

Those numbers, they’re all great. Simple, elegant descriptions of a player to help us quickly grasp their performance. But you know me. With these articles, I like to answer how a pitcher is getting their results, showcasing their recipe for success. Thing is, even though Skaggs has “figured it out,” I’m not exactly sure what he has figured out.

So let’s explore the popular solutions. Detailing the myths and legends, seeking the true catalyst that has turned Skaggs from his poor 4.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 21% K rate from last season to this year’s bliss.

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I love when pitchers add velocity. “Did you hear? Alex Wood is now pumping 94mph!” analysts whisper on Twitter. Crowds gather, eyes piercing a pitcher throwing a fastball that pounds a catcher’s mitt behind a failed swing. The excitement is captivating and calls for everyone’s attention as hype trains leave stations in droves.

This is the fun in fantasy baseball and Zach Eflin is the latest pitcher to get the spotlight. After failed 2016 and 2017 seasons that were so ghastly I feel guilty sharing them with you (5.54 ERA and 6.16 ERA, respectively), Eflin has had a pair of successful starts to launch his 2018 campaign, holding an impressive 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 27.7% K rate, and 6.4% BB rate in the minuscule 12.2 IP sample. The real story, though, is how he’s bumped his four-seamer’s velocity from the previous 93.5mph mark to 95.5mph this season:

Alright, Zach Eflin has increased his fastball velocity by two ticks. So what?

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In these Pitcher Spotlight articles, there are specific types of pitchers I like to dive into. Some are new to many and need an introduction, some are struggling as I try to find a solution, while others are exhibiting trends in a small sample that could be stickier than we think moving forward.

Trevor Cahill falls into the latter category. There is plenty that can go wrong over the next few months to prevent Cahill from producing at a high level, though he’s showing signs of being a legitimate Top 50 starter and that’s interesting. It’s the fun stuff.

The story of Cahill is unorthodox. After seasons of mediocre as I elected to give him a nickname akin to his Irish doppelganger Trevor O’Cahill, the spring of 2017 gave us a jolt. A sudden performance spike that magically forced Jeff Sullivan to call him “good,” producing excellent numbers across a seven-game stretch:

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Wednesday night featured a Clayton Kershaw that we didn’t know. An imposter, a fraud who gave us a six-walk outing so rare that we hadn’t seen one from the #1 Starting Pitcher since 2012. So long ago that it was a time where Matt Harrison had fantasy relevance. So ridiculous that we have to have a talk.

There is something wrong with Clayton Kershaw.

It’s not a novel idea. Kershaw’s 3.48 ERA was uncharacteristic during his September return from the DL last season – a seven-game stretch concluding with six straight games allowing a longball. And with the likes of Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale all knocking on his door to claim the title of “Best Pitcher On The Planet” there was bound to be plenty more scrutiny.

But while the arguments before eventually ended with “yeah, but it’s Kershaw, he hasn’t shown any real sides of fading and he’s done it for so long,” we finally have an explanation for his struggles. No, it’s not his back problems (while it may be the very root, it’s too simple of an answer and is far from effective rhetoric), it’s his fastball. More specifically, his fastball command.
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The first few weeks of the season often produce entertaining statistical extremes. Wild ERAs, over-the-top “on pace” numbers, and inflated ratios that give us a sensible chuckle as we collectively understand the lack of truth they hold.

Often among these novelties are the early league-wide leaderboards. I elected to pull up the 2018 strikeout leaders and here is what you’ll see:
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Tyson Ross has his third start of the season tonight against the San Francisco Giants and given his 3.1% ownership rate in ESPN leagues, it doesn’t look like many of you care.

I think you should care.

This article won’t be a declaration of the golden days returning. That would be a foolish hyperbole after Ross has only taken the ball twice in 2018 and is still gathering his bearings from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome that took him out of the game for 16 months. Not to mention that his 5.25 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate thus far don’t scream “fixed.”

You can smell a catch. Why would I waste my time on this if there wasn’t something interesting? Something that makes me say “wait a second” or “there might be something here.” It’s not as transparent as other starters have been in the past, but let me show you what I’ve seen and I think you’ll understand what we’re all doing here.

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We have these arms every year. The pitchers surprising us in the first week of the season who we maybe heard once or twice among the sea of information during the preseason but never really considered as a possible candidate for our opening day rosters. Who is this guy? Is he worth the add? Can he do this again? What do I do?!

Tyler Mahle is just that for plenty of owners after dazzling with a 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 7 Ks outing on Monday afternoon, even becoming an add in some 12-team leagues. It’s not easy to dominate a Cubs lineup, even if they set a record for team strikeouts over the opening weekend, and with Mahle becoming an intriguing enigma, I wanted to take a closer look.

Here’s what I saw from Tyler Mahle in his 2018 debut:

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Today I’ll be talking about the holy one, the pitcher with arguably the filthiest repertoire, the most dominating stuff, the man who should win every single at-bat.

And I’m going tell you why that probably isn’t going to happen. At least not yet.

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