Those who know me understand that I enjoy watching pitchers experiment and dive into it when it happens. Often they are irrelevant, failing to prevent the tires from spinning in the mud. There are exceptions, as always, and I find it interesting to point out possible exceptions before they are illuminated to the masses.

So today I want to talk about a pitcher that I wouldn’t actually suggest chasing in 12-teamer. Reynaldo Lopez’s 4.51 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 17.3% K rate are enough to turn anyone away while his FIP and SIERA are even worse, each with marks over 5.00. Even cherry picking his last six games returns a 4.28 ERA. Things aren’t great for Reynaldo Lopez.

Something peculiar did happen in his last start, though. It was a strong 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks effort against the Yankees and it may have been a result of some tweaking in Lopez’s repertoire. I want to tell you about it.

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When I see a pitcher consistently struggle, I can get a bit antsy. Pitchers often stick to one gameplan, believing that their current approach, despite its constant failures, is the only path that can lead them to success. It frustrates me when I see a pitcher refuse to go back to the drawing board and experiment for at least one game to see if something different could work.

Sam Gaviglio is having a rough season. Through 83.1 frames of sixteen starts and two relief appearances, Gavilgio holds a disfigured 4.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP without much indicating that he deserves a whole lot better…except for last Saturday.

Watching Gaviglio’s outing against the Rays, I couldn’t help but get a little excited. Right in front of me was a man trying something new in the midst of peril and struggle. He recognized his current course wasn’t getting the job done and started experimenting. He was in his own world on the hill searching for something that worked.

I think he found something.

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There was an MLB debut last night and we should talk about it. After boasting a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in Double-A this season, Jacob Nix played his first career major league game, returning a marvelous 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks line for the San Diego Padres. Does this mean he should be added in your NL-Only league or maybe even that office 12-teamer? Or was this just a debut that went well and should be ignored?

I’m going to make this easy for everyone. Nix does not have a Top 20 ceiling. He also isn’t the worst starter to consider in 12-teamers. There are two major strengths to Nix’s approach that could propel him to fantasy relevancy, but there is a significant flaw that makes me question his floor. That’s what I’m going to cover here and let’s start it off with one of his strengths: his fastball command.

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On the most exciting parts of spring is the chaos that comes with early success. Hype trains are lining up at the station and you stand in the center wondering which tickets to buy, where your train is headed, and if you’re too late to get on board. Yonny Chirinos left the station in early April, crashing for owners by the end of it as he was sent to the DL with a forearm strain, turning into a three-month departure from the majors pitching in Triple-A and nursing a sore shoulder.

But it’s the end of July and Chirinos has returned, making quite the entrance through a 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks performance against the Yankees. This is big, guys. Big.

I love writing these Pitcher Spotlight articles because I get to talk about best-case scenarios. I get to defend the forgotten arms and tell you how they could be productive when few consider them on the wire. Chirinos has been sitting on your wire for three months and it’s finally time to reconsider him for your squad – even in that 12-team league.

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I like Andrew Heaney. I think you should too but let’s start with me.

I like Heaney’s control. Save for his five-game 2017 season, Heaney’s 7.3% walk rate this year is the highest of any MLB season, fueled by a sinker hitting the zone over 58% of the time and a changeup he trusts for a 47% zone rate.

I’m getting ahead of myself. I wouldn’t be writing this if I didn’t feel there was a question about Heaney’s ability to perform, which wasn’t the case early in the year. Through the first eight starts of the year, there was a strong consensus that Heaney could excel for a considerable amount of time, sporting a 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 27% K rate, and a fantastic 12% whiff rate to support the elevated strikeout numbers.

However, Heaney ran into a pair of 5 ER games and suddenly it seemed doomed. It launched a stretch of 5.09 ERA with just a 16.7% K rate and the fun was coming to an end. Sure, the WHIP was still acceptable and walk rate was under 5%, but we were celebrating Heaney for the good ratios and strikeouts and it just wasn’t happening.

I started this article talking about Heaney’s control. It’s easily one of his best attributes and entering the year, we considered it as one of the only strong assets. For the most part, save for the “all around” types that are so hard to depend on, either we classify a starter’s value in good command/control arms or high strikeout ability. Heaney has always had the control, but what I’m believing in suddenly is the strikeout rate.

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Note: Scott Strandberg also wrote about Jordan Zimmermann yesterday and you should read that piece too.

Conversations about Jordan Zimmermann rarely present the Detroit Tigers starter in a good light. Maybe his horrid contract is referenced or how his fastball registered a -27.3 pVal in 2017 (yes, it was that bad) or maybe how far he’s fallen since his days with Nationals. Regardless of the focus, if you’re talking Zimermmann, it’s often sprinkled with disappointment.

We’re going to have a different conversation today. No, it’s not that Zimmermann is definitively a dependable arm for the rest of the year, that would be foolish. You know the drill with these articles, I have seen something interesting and I want to make the case that maybe, just maybe, a pitcher will be better than expected in the next month or two.

Let’s establish our baseline. Here’s what Jordan Zimmermann has done over his last two seasons leading up to 2018:

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For the second week in a row, I’m going to bring up Chad Kuhl. After last week’s entertaining disappointment against the Diamondbacks, Kuhl was removed after four frames against the Mets on Tuesday with forearm discomfort.

I am not bringing up Kuhl in an act of self-depreciation, despite how often I rely on it. Rather, his potential longterm removal from the Pirates rotation means that Nick Kingham could soon hold a firm grip on the #5 spot in Pittsburgh.

I think you see where this is going. A pitcher that is currently owned in under 10% of fantasy leagues, an arm that with consistent playing time could return top-5o starting pitcher production, a rookie who holds a sub 1.00 WHIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 12% whiff rate may suddenly be getting a whole lot of playing time.

Let’s take a dive into what Kingham does on the field and how it could translate into a potential league-winning pickup.

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I’m taking a chance today, posting this piece just an hour before Chad Kuhl takes the hill against the Brewers. Yesterday’s game was postponed, forcing me to take a leap of faith today, but I know what I see and I’m going to talk about it anyway.

We’ve been waiting for Kuhl to have consistent fantasy relevancy since his call-up in 2016, but it’s been a laborious two years. Back-to-back seasons with a WHIP over 1.30 and an ERA well north of 4.00 have done little to inspire hope, as his strikeout rate has hovered 20%.

However, Kuhl’s last four starts have been successful and I could be more than just a blip on the radar. I actually think it’s going to stick.

That’s a table comparing Kuhl’s first ten starts of 2018 to his last four, including a bit of a pitch mix adjustment as Kuhl is suddenly throwing his slide piece over 30% of the time as he pulls back from his fastball.

Why is this important? Because Kuhl’s slider is incredible and his fastball is terrible.

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For those that are familiar with my work may know that Matt Strahm is a bit of an inside joke. Entering 2017, I labeled him as a dark horse sleeper, possibly in position to steal the #5 spot in the Royals rotation and transform from a shadow on the wire into surprising fantasy relevancy.

That didn’t go so well – the Royals signed Jason Hammel, Strahm struggled as a reliever, got knee surgery, and was shipped off to San Diego in the Trevor Cahill deal. My vision was put on the backburner.

But it’s June 15th, 2018, where the Padres have had to deal with injuries to Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchesi, and a demotion of Luis Perdomo after struggling like car tires in a swamp. The door has opened for Strahm to get a spotlight as a starter – albeit in “bullpen games” – and it’s time to consider what that could be. We may have to wait until the second half (or maybe 2019!) to see Strahm stretched out and penciled into the rotation, but I want to make sure he is on your radar. I want to show you why you’ll probably consider picking up Matt Strahm this season.

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Did you expect any sort of spotlight on Clay Buchholz this season? I certainly didn’t think he would be worth anyone’s time, with his last healthy season producing a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, watching his strikeout rate dive to an abysmal 16% mark and hinting at a 10% walk rate. But here we are, four starts into his 2018 season and Buchholz is getting our attention. Seriously, he’s been quite remarkable thus far (I’m ignoring 2017 stats wise as his poor health reduced his season to just two starts in 7.1 innings):

I was like many of you at first, waving this away with a slight scoff, quickly quoting small sample size and the inconsistent nature of Buchholz, and suggesting that nothing has changed. Maybe even adding a quick “this is the same old Buchholz” quip.

But it isn’t. This could be nothing, yet another byproduct of a minuscule 24 frames, but there’s a chance that it sticks across the weeks and months of the year.

That thing is Clay Buchholz’s cutter.

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