When the Diamondbacks went out and signed Jason Kubel to play left field last December, many observers were aghast, arguing that even if he was a small improvement on offense over Gerardo Parra, the enormous gap in their defensive skills would make the transaction a net downgrade at a position Arizona already had depth at. For a team attempting to defend their NL West title, it certainly seemed like they could have found a better use for the 15 million dollars they gave to Kubel.

Two weeks into the season, Chris Young is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Justin Upton is doing his best to avoid joining him with a thumb injury, and the previously overstuffed Arizona outfield is suddenly an area of deep concern in the desert. While neither injury is expected to be a long-term issue, the Diamondbacks won’t have both players back in the lineup together until early May at the soonest. Young’s injury is a particularly tough blow, since the center fielder was off to a fantastic (if completely unsustainable) .410/.500/.897 start with five homers in the early going. As for Upton, he’s off to a horrendous start, still seeking his first home run and RBI, though the fact that he did pinch-run in the 9th against Pittsburgh on Wednesday does indicate that the Diamondbacks intend to keep him off the disabled list for now. Even if that’s the case, his thumb has clearly affected his play, so expect additional time off, diminished performance, or both until he is fully healed.

For fantasy players also suddenly down an outfielder – and you shouldn’t need me to tell you that Upton & Young are each owned in just about every league imaginable – the immediate action is to look internally, because Parra should now see daily playing time. He started in left with Kubel moved over to right yesterday, though expect him to see time at all three positions. In addition, 24-year-old A.J. Pollock was recalled from Triple-A Reno to make his major league debut. (For exceptionally deep leaguers, Pollock is a 2009 first-round pick who stole 36 bases in Double-A last year, though without much power. The chain reaction there is that 23-year-old outfielder Adam Eaton, who has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2010, has now been pushed to Triple-A to take Pollock’s spot.)

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Between all of the injuries and slow starts, it’s expected that everyone in your league is scouring the waiver wire and looking for players to fill in the gaps.  The trick though, is to do it on the cheap this early in the season.  There are far too many people blowing their FAAB budget too soon or wasting a decent waiver priority on a quick-fix band-aid that won’t be playing in a month’s time, so while you need to stay active, you need to be smarter than the next guy in the way you do it. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re back with another dive into the deep blue sea where we hunt for hidden treasures. Many owners are likely still hurting for a replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury and I have uncovered an outfielder and a possible outfielder (depending on your league’s eligibility rules) who may be worth a look.

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This is the first week where we’ll be highlighting and examining American League outfielders. We’ll look at a few early risers and fallers today.

Bullish:
Josh Willingham – So far “Compliant Pig” (kudos to Leopold Bloom of AthleticsNation for that one) has managed to stay healthy and produce healthily. Willingham’s 12 hits rank him in the top 5 of the AL and on top of that, he is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. I wouldn’t expect this kind of production all year, but given that he set a career high in homers last year despite playing in another pitchers park, Willingham clearly hasn’t lost any power to age. He is looking quite good thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve got two early-season waiver wire adds for you, one to help your outfield and one to help your bullpen…

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With 3 home runs and a .371 average, J.D. Martinez is one of the big pickups in roto over the past week. The question around Martinez is sustainability. Obviously he won’t hit .371 all season, but can he sustain a solid average in combination with respectable power numbers throughout the year?

I think so. I do not quite think we are going to witness a Jose Bautista coming out party in regards to Martinez, but I do think he can surprise and be a valuable player throughout the year. His walk rate throughout the minors was never too great, but he did post high averages and solid home run totals at most levels.

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As you are likely well aware by now, Jacoby Ellsbury suffered a subluxation (partial dislocation) of his right shoulder when Reid Brignac landed on top of him at second base during yesterday’s game. There has been no timetable set yet for his return, but he will likely be out for at least six weeks. This is obviously a huge blow for his fantasy owners and the Red Sox, especially with Carl Crawford still on the shelf, who could have replaced Ellsbury in the leadoff slot. Instead, Mike Aviles and his .317 career OBP has now moved on up. So what’s an Ellsbury owner to do?

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What did you know about Alejandro De Aza in the middle of July last year? My guess is, “not a whole lot”, if you’d even ever heard of him at all. For my part, I have a vague recollection of him jumping right from Double-A to claim the Opening Day center fielder job with Florida in 2007, which lasted for all of about a week before he broke his right ankle. He returned late in the year, failed to hit, and then missed all of 2008 after needing surgery on his left ankle during the spring. For most of the last three seasons, he’s been bouncing between Triple-A & the bigs for the Marlins & White Sox, putting up superficially nice minor-league stats (.309/.372/.479), but never getting much of a chance to play at the major-league level and largely settling into a career as a barely-thought-of Quad-A player. (Which is still nice work if you can get it, I suppose.)

That all changed last July 27 when the White Sox got involved in the Colby Rasmus/Edwin Jackson three-team deal, opening up a spot on the Chicago offensive roster with the departure of Mark Teahen to Toronto. At the time, GM Kenny Williams claimed that De Aza was getting called up to do more than just fill out the bench, noting that the ineffective incumbent in center, Alex Rios, was going to have to “take a backseat”. De Aza provided the margin of victory with a homer in a 2-1 win over Detroit in his first game and never looked back, hitting .329/.400/.520 with 12 steals over 171 plate appearances, good for a .401 wOBA and 2.8 WAR in barely a third of a seasons’ worth of play. It was a stunning performance from a guy who had entered his age-27 season with a career .242/.286/.325 line in parts of three big league seasons, though no doubt fueled in part by an absurd .404 BABIP.

For all that, no one was quite sure what to make of De Aza heading into 2012. Was he a flash in the pan, taking advantage of small sample sizes and September pitching, completely unsustainable over time? Or could be he the next Mike Morse, a late bloomer slowed in part by injuries who showed his skill at the end of one season before completely breaking out the following year? The White Sox made room to find out by moving Rios to right field, trading Carlos Quentin to San Diego, and mercifully dumping Juan Pierre.

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When you write a fantasy baseball column that recommends players, your number one priority is accuracy.  You can make all the suggestions you want, but if you’re making bad calls, no one is going to listen to your advice.  And even if you do happen to get one right eventually, there’s always someone out there to tell you that even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut.  You need to know what you’re talking about.

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Whenever we go out, the people always shout: “Is it time to pick up Jon Jay for my lineup quick?” And I say: “Probably not if he’s available in your league,” which doesn’t quite make for a good song. But it might make for a good RotoGraphs post.

Yahoo tells us that Jay is available in 91% of leagues, which means that he’s off the board in NL-only leagues and probably not available in eighteen- or twenty-team leagues. And if your 14-team league has five outfielders, should Jay be one of them? For example, my Blog Wars team has Cody Ross and Michael Brantley sharing my final outfield slot. Jon Jay is gone even in that league.

Which probably means he’s not a great pickup if he’s available in your league. He just looks more attractive until you poke around under the hood.

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