Let’s start the week off with two players who have recently been promoted to more high-profile roles, one due to ineffectiveness and the other due to injury…

Scott Downs | RP | Angels | Owned: 41% Yahoo! and 33.0% ESPN

One of my ten bold predictions before the season said that Downs would save at least ten games for the Halos. Jordan Walden is good but shaky, and I figured that any misstep early on could result in him losing his job, even just temporarily. Mike Scioscia pulled the plug on his struggling closer after he’d blown a save against the Rays last Thursday, inserting Downs into the ninth inning role. He closed out his first game on Saturday with a perfect inning against the Indians in a one-run game.

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Bryce Harper’s debut is nigh. The Nationals will call him up Saturday and put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL. Though he wasn’t available in any of my 14 leagues, perhaps he’s available in yours. Should you pick him up?

Despite having all the pedigree in the world, the answer is unclear. He already has two things going against him before day one. He’s only 19 years old, for one. Here’s the list of 19 year olds that managed at least 200 PAs since 1980 and how they fared in their rookie seasons.

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Here we will continue to monitor the risers and decliners of the American League outfield rankings:

Bullish:
Marlon Byrd – I’ve already waxed poetic on Byrd in a previous article, so I won’t ramble too much today. I like Byrd as someone who is CF eligible and starts for the team that has scored the 5th most runs in the AL. Byrd’s ownership rate is still just 2% in Yahoo! leagues so there is a good chance that he is available in yours. If the match up is favorable, I like Byrd for FanGraphs: The Game at home on days where you want to save a few dollars. He’s a useful ballplayer.

Yeonis Cespedes – Cespedes already has 4 dingers and is 4-4 in stolen base attempts. The 30% K-rate is something to be wary of, but he is still producing in spite of it. Per Pitch f/x, not even 45% of the pitches that Cespedes has seen has been a 4-seamer or a 2-seamer. That means that he has seen an awful lot of curves, sliders and change-ups. Cespedes does have a .357 OBP, but that includes his 3 HBP. Cespedes has only earned 7 walks for himself so far. With a swinging strike rate of 16.4%, I am tentatively pushing Cespedes up one tier. If those strikeouts get out of hand, then expect him to drop back down.

Denard Span – Although I don’t expect Span’s average to remain at .324 all season long, I do feel that he has a good chance to end with a .300+ average. He’ll never hit too many homers for you, but his runs, SB and AVG should all be above average at the end of the year. If you play in an OBP league, then Span is one of those deeply satisfying late round types. His sneaky good OBP (career .361) is great to have penciled in for 650 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Marlon Byrd is the word in Boston, but we know how that tune goes by now. Once the BABIP (.091) stabilizes, he’ll put together a good batting average (.278 career) with home run and stolen base numbers that shouldn’t add up to 20. The move to Fenway won’t help him hit more home runs, since the right-handed park factor for dongers in Chicago is 102 and it drops to 94 in Fenway, but that really isn’t Byrd’s game most years. Instead, look for the 132 PF for doubles from righties in Fenway to help augment their new center fielders’ batting average.

But, as usual, the more interesting situation is the one left behind on the rebuilding squad. You know what Tony Campana has coming to him? The world, Chico, and everything in it. (Or a one-month shot at staking out the center field job for himself, it could just be that.)

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We’ve got a pair of AL Central outfielders on the docket today; two players who are coming off down and/or injury-hampered seasons and are poised for strong rebounds…

Alex Rios | White Sox | Owned: 46% Yahoo!

Whenever you think of Rios, you can’t help but think of his mammoth contract — owed $38 million through 2014. Thankfully his real life contract situation means nothing in fantasy. The 31-year-old had the worst season of his career in 2011, posting an unfathomably bad 59 wRC+ in 570 plate appearances. His walk rate (4.7%) was a career worst but not completely out of line with prior years (6.1% from ’08-’10), though his strike out rate (11.9%) was by the far the best of his career (16.1% from ’08-’10). The most interesting thing about Rios’ 2011 season was his batted ball profile…

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Brennan Boesch started the season as a fantasy sleeper for many people. He was to bat second for the Tigers, which he has in 14 games, with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder hitting after him. He looked to be great source of Runs and maybe a bump in batting average as he would see better pitches to hit. Some people even predicted him to be a top 30 fantasy player. His season so far has been a disappointment with him hitting .213 and scoring a total of five runs. Today, I am going to look to see if he can be the fantasy player some people envisioned.

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When the Diamondbacks went out and signed Jason Kubel to play left field last December, many observers were aghast, arguing that even if he was a small improvement on offense over Gerardo Parra, the enormous gap in their defensive skills would make the transaction a net downgrade at a position Arizona already had depth at. For a team attempting to defend their NL West title, it certainly seemed like they could have found a better use for the 15 million dollars they gave to Kubel.

Two weeks into the season, Chris Young is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Justin Upton is doing his best to avoid joining him with a thumb injury, and the previously overstuffed Arizona outfield is suddenly an area of deep concern in the desert. While neither injury is expected to be a long-term issue, the Diamondbacks won’t have both players back in the lineup together until early May at the soonest. Young’s injury is a particularly tough blow, since the center fielder was off to a fantastic (if completely unsustainable) .410/.500/.897 start with five homers in the early going. As for Upton, he’s off to a horrendous start, still seeking his first home run and RBI, though the fact that he did pinch-run in the 9th against Pittsburgh on Wednesday does indicate that the Diamondbacks intend to keep him off the disabled list for now. Even if that’s the case, his thumb has clearly affected his play, so expect additional time off, diminished performance, or both until he is fully healed.

For fantasy players also suddenly down an outfielder – and you shouldn’t need me to tell you that Upton & Young are each owned in just about every league imaginable – the immediate action is to look internally, because Parra should now see daily playing time. He started in left with Kubel moved over to right yesterday, though expect him to see time at all three positions. In addition, 24-year-old A.J. Pollock was recalled from Triple-A Reno to make his major league debut. (For exceptionally deep leaguers, Pollock is a 2009 first-round pick who stole 36 bases in Double-A last year, though without much power. The chain reaction there is that 23-year-old outfielder Adam Eaton, who has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2010, has now been pushed to Triple-A to take Pollock’s spot.)

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Between all of the injuries and slow starts, it’s expected that everyone in your league is scouring the waiver wire and looking for players to fill in the gaps.  The trick though, is to do it on the cheap this early in the season.  There are far too many people blowing their FAAB budget too soon or wasting a decent waiver priority on a quick-fix band-aid that won’t be playing in a month’s time, so while you need to stay active, you need to be smarter than the next guy in the way you do it. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re back with another dive into the deep blue sea where we hunt for hidden treasures. Many owners are likely still hurting for a replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury and I have uncovered an outfielder and a possible outfielder (depending on your league’s eligibility rules) who may be worth a look.

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This is the first week where we’ll be highlighting and examining American League outfielders. We’ll look at a few early risers and fallers today.

Bullish:
Josh Willingham – So far “Compliant Pig” (kudos to Leopold Bloom of AthleticsNation for that one) has managed to stay healthy and produce healthily. Willingham’s 12 hits rank him in the top 5 of the AL and on top of that, he is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. I wouldn’t expect this kind of production all year, but given that he set a career high in homers last year despite playing in another pitchers park, Willingham clearly hasn’t lost any power to age. He is looking quite good thus far. Read the rest of this entry »