AL OF Stock Watch
This is the first week where we’ll be highlighting and examining American League outfielders. We’ll look at a few early risers and fallers today.
Bullish:
Josh Willingham – So far “Compliant Pig” (kudos to Leopold Bloom of AthleticsNation for that one) has managed to stay healthy and produce healthily. Willingham’s 12 hits rank him in the top 5 of the AL and on top of that, he is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. I wouldn’t expect this kind of production all year, but given that he set a career high in homers last year despite playing in another pitchers park, Willingham clearly hasn’t lost any power to age. He is looking quite good thus far.
Austin Jackson – I still remain a bit skeptical of his newfound plate discipline, as it takes about 200 PA to accurately gauge a new found approach. That being said, I was too low on his ability to merely steal bases and score runs. In hindsight, I think I undersold the value of him hitting in front of Cabrera and Fielder. The next time the rankings roll out (the first Monday in May) it appears as though Jackson will be rewarded with a healthy jump.
David Murphy – As noted in the comments of my initial rankings, me leaving Murphy out of any tier was a considerable oversight. Now that Murphy is the apparently the full time starting LF for a powerful Rangers team, he will be sure to be a coveted fantasy option. If Murphy goes 15-10 with a .280 average for 550 PA, that is a useful 5th fantasy outfielder. He is another outfielder that should make a significant jump.
Alejandro De Aza – I was admittedly skeptical of De Aza coming into this year. I was worried that he may be exposed as a full time starter, and I still worry about that a bit. What I’m not worried about is his speed. Although he hasn’t set any goals for himself for 2012, between AAA and the majors he stole over 30 bags in 2011. De Aza already has one SB this year. Although his SB% isn’t spectacular, for standard 5×5 formats De Aza is looking quite appealing.
Bearish:
Eric Thames – Thames has not yet lived up to the Jays hopes so far. He has just one extra base hit in eight games thus far. With a capable outfielder in Rajai Davis sitting behind him on the depth chart, Thames will either hit and maintain his position as the starting left-fielder, or he will simply hit the bench. If Thames doesn’t ISO .170+, with his skill set, it is very hard to be a positive contribution overall. Keep an eye on his playing time, as he seems in danger of losing his job.
Vernon Wells – I was hoping for some sort of bounce back season for Wells, but I just don’t see it in the cards anymore. He does have a pair of homers already, so maybe it isn’t too late to turn things around just yet. However, he hasn’t drawn a walk yet and has struck out seven times. With Mike Trout breathing down his neck, Wells might not even figure to play against lefties in the near future.
Jacoby Ellsbury – Unfortunately it seems as though injuries are following Ellsbury. With any injury, the severity of the injury itself is the biggest question. There has been some speculation that Ellsbury could miss two months. This is the worst case scenario, but given the nature of this type of injury, six weeks of down time is being assumed. Six weeks best case versus two months worst case. If you tried to trade Ellsbury now, I wouldn’t blame you.
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How long before Travis Snider gets another shot at regular playing time — or at least a change of scenery. He has NOTHING to learn in AAA at this point, especially at the Jays’ affiliate.
#FreeLunchboxHero45
He’s raking in AAA again, and I agree; he has nothing left to prove there. So far he’s played 7 games in the OF, and just 1 at DH, so it’s possible that if Thames continues to struggle, Snider might get the call instead of pressing Davis into a full time roll.
As for how long that takes the Jays to potentially do, I don’t have any idea. I’d expect sooner rather than later. They think (and I agree) that they can contend for a 2nd wild card spot this year.
If they showed the same patience they had in dealing with Snider in dealing with Thames, then you can expect the two to be switching positions after about 100 PAs or so. (If Thames continues to not perform)
Josh Hamilton jumping up any? I suppose the production isn’t a surprise and health through 1 week isn’t exactly all that special. but he’s raking!
To me, Hamilton is more of an injury time bomb, than an injury risk. I think he’s just bound to miss time. I struggle to rank/rate him constantly because of this.
I know you can’t predict injuries, but given his history, one must admit that his injury potential is much higher than average.
Agreed for the most part, but also remember that most of the Jays’ regulars are off to slow starts. Thames may get some extra leash just by being lumped in with the rest.
How about Nolan Reimold?
I don’t really love Reimold’s skill set in fantasy. What is one thing he does that you can’t find on the waiver wire?
While he may only hit .270 and hit 15-20 HRs, by batting leadoff, his Runs should be above his Zips projection of 65. His ceiling (assuming mostly full-time ABs at the leadoff spot) would be .275 with 20 HRs, 10 SBs, 85 Runs, 75-85 RBI.
In 2011, all leadoff hitters for Baltimore combined for 92 R, 79 RBI and 22 HR with a triple slash of .249/.290.395. That triple slash can easily be repeated by Reimold, if not exceeded. So if you can find 90 Runs, 80 RBI and 20 HR on the wire then isn’t that a good pickup?
Something tells me you’re not going to get a good enough return trading Ellsbury to justify not simply stashing him on the DL.
What if Ellisbury is negatively affected by the injury all season? Is he worth trading then? Don’t assume there will be no lingering issues
6-8 weeks is an awfully long time. If someone is willing to take him for 70 cents on the dollar, I think I pull the trigger.
Adam Jones…bullish or bearish?
Cautiously bullish. 3 HR and 3 SB already is spectacular, but he just doesn’t get on base enough to score an elite amount of runs.
“If Murphy goes 15-10 with a .280 average for 550 PA, that is a useful 5th fantasy outfielder.”
2011 Nick Markakis: 15-12 with a 284 average in 716 PA’s.
I am wondering about the following things
1) Is Nick Markakis massively overrated? Is he only useful for a 5th outfielder?
2) Is your projection of Murphy crazy?
3) Is your expectation for a 5th fantasy outfielder crazy?
I’d like to hear what people have to say about this. Right now I’m leaning towards Option #3. .
Markakis is useful in points leagues with a decent OBP and low Ks. I would say he was overrated 2 years ago, but most owners know that he has underproduced expectations with sub .300 averages and low HRs. Markakis makes a low-end #3 OF in my book. Murphy would be similar if he got full time ABs, I guess…
the big question is WHICH Nick Markakis is the “real” guy now.
The 2007-2009 version was a five category monster, 20+ HR and 10+ SB combined with a .300 AVG and 100 R and RBI.
The 2010-2011 version is a pretty mediocre fantasy OF, 15 HR, 10 SB, .280 AVG and 70ish R/RBI is nothing special.
It wouldn’t surprise me if David Murphy could produce similar value to “bad Markakis” in a full season’s worth of PT. The reason Markakis is (justifiably) rated higher than Murphy is:
1. the dude is *guaranteed* to be in the lineup every day. That is a big boon to counting stats.
2. he has a history of being much better (2007-2009) so there is clearly upside if he regains some of that stroke.
3. he has a career .295 AVG and it’s pretty fair to expect him to hit for a higher AVG than Murphy.
2 months is NOT the worst case scenario for Ellsbury. I wish that were true. If they find tissue damage, could be as soon as later today, then it will be season ending surgery.
Don’t forget that Ellsbury had a “minor injury” two years ago that had him miss basically the entire season. I am not saying that this is going to happen again, but ya know the saying…. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”