Currently, I am playing in seven different roto leagues and if there is a common thread to be found in each one, it’s that just a handful of stolen bases can vault a number of teams up in the standings by an average of five points.  Unless you’re sitting at the top of the stolen base category or sitting in last by a ridiculously large margin, a boost in steals could mean the difference between languishing in the bottom third of your league standings and competing for the championship.  Here are a pair of outfielders who just might be able to help… Read the rest of this entry »

For most of his three full seasons in the big leagues prior to 2012, Dexter Fowler had been a decent (if unexciting) placeholder in the middle of the Colorado outfield. His wOBA marks of .345, .335, & .346 between 2009-11 were roughly average, and while he chipped in a few steals (52 over the three seasons) and a nice amount of triples (39), he was generally an unremarkable player, held back largely by a strikeout rate (23.1% last year) that usually only works when it’s balanced out by considerable power. Last June, he really hit rock bottom when instead of rejoining the Rockies after recovering from an abdominal injury, he was optioned back to Triple-A. And why not? At the time, he was hitting just .238/.340/.348 with only two successful steals in eight attempts.

Fowler even struggled back in the minors, hitting only .237/.345/.381 in 27 games for Colorado Springs. When he returned to the Rockies after the All-Star Break, it was less because he had forced his way back and more because Carlos Gonzalez had been dealing with a sore wrist, creating a need for another outfielder. But Fowler doubled in his first game back and scored ten runs in his first eight games; over the remainder of the season, he was a new player, hitting .288/.381/.498 with 37 extra-base hits and ten steals.

Despite his hot finish to 2011, few believed he’d suddenly turned a corner. At Yahoo!, for example, he was ranked as the 48th-best outfielder heading into 2012; here at FanGraphs, our consensus rankings placed him 62nd. Yet here we are, two months into 2012, and Fowler has the sixth-highest wOBA of any qualified outfielder, a ranking which had been third overall before Tuesday’s hitless outing.

Should we have seen this coming?

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The great thing about playing in a league deeper than 12-team mixed for a change is I can now simply check out the week’s pickups in the 15-team LABR league for inspiration. Both the players highlighted today were won with FAAB this past Monday.

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It may be a day late, but I assure it isn’t a dollar short. Today marks the updated tiers for American League outfield eligible players.

Tier One:
Josh Hamilton
Curtis Granderson
Jose Bautista
Adrian Gonzalez

Joey Bats was able to re-enter the upper echelon. Over the past 30 days he’s hit .348 with nine home runs and 23 RBI’s. Combine this past month with what he should project to do the rest of the season and you have yourself a top shelf player. Hamilton and Granderson continue to mash about as well as anyone could expect, so they’ve managed to hang onto the top spots as of right now. Now OF eligible in Yahoo! formats, A-Gon has seen himself debut in the tiered rankings where I think he will be come the end of the season. I think we would all be shocked if he didn’t end up as a top tier player.

Tier Two:
Adam Jones
Mike Trout
Austin Jackson

The biggest jump here is Trout becoming more or less an instant super star level player. This type of offensive production from someone so young truly ranks among the best names in the history of the game. Trout has so far been a solid source for average, OBP, power, steals and he has even chipped in 20 RBI’s already. I assumed he would be a very good player later down the road. I didn’t expect him to be great from the word go. Even while being on the 15-day disabled list, I am optimistic about Jackson for the rest of the season. This may change as soon next week, as he is going take live batting practice for the first time today and be evaluated afterwards. Read the rest of this entry »

Two years ago, when Jose Bautista was enjoying his 50 HR breakout, I was enjoying slotting him in to my lineup on a daily basis in the original ottoneu league. A $1 in-season auction pickup, Joey Bats anchored my last championship team before getting voted off through the off-season arbitration process. He was a stalwart for me again last year, but this April was a different story.

May has been better, but has Bautista turned a corner or had the pauper-turned-prince turned back again?

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A couple players are possibly going in different directions in the National League outfield, but each has implications for deeper leagues.

Jason Bay (14% owned)
Bay is back in Willets Bay and supposedly will get his starting job back, but there are plenty of reasons to worry about his security. It’s possible some powerful box-score results are hiding some iffy batter peripherals, and no matter how hopeful you are about him, the fact remains that the 33-year-old has been declining forcefully in his early thirties.

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With injuries disabling stars around the league, the time in the year to scoop up the waiver wire for valuable pieces that can be utilized in different ways is beginning. Using players who do not play every day or are put into platoons can be a good way to find value where others look over, especially if they are on the good side of the platoon (lefty hitters who mash righty pitchers). Here are three guys I like in a platoon role going forward.

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If you’re a little light in the speed department, then a couple of situations have opened up that might interest you.  If you’re in an NL-only league, then my apologies.  Feel free to move along.  Nothing left to see here.  But if you’re in an AL-only or mixed league, then these guys just might be able to help you out. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s waiver wire looks at two hitters who are beneficiaries of injuries. Every year, a large percentage of surprise performances happen as a result of increased playing time, rather than any change in skill. These players are typically undervalued because they have never played full-time and therefore don’t have the history of counting stats to attract fantasy owners or instill the confidence that they could maintain their skills over every day at-bats.

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Today brings the latest up and down trends in the American League outfield.

Bullish:
Coco Crisp – I don’t think there is another player alive that I have floundered on more than Crisp. Originally enticed by the hopes of another near 50 stolen base year, I ranked him aggresively in my first AL OF Tiered Rankings. Then the season started and he promptly fell flat on his face. He clearly struggling at the plate, but his running game is still quite effective. Even yesterday he managed to go two for two on stolen bases. Going back to last year, that makes 29 straight steals without being caught. ZiPS rest of season predicts about a .250 batting average with 20 bags, but I would take the over on Crisp’s SB. His future average won’t ever offer much, even after adjusting for his current .179 BABIP. Crisp’s line drive percentage of just 13.3% ranks in the bottom 10 of all position players with at least 100 plate appearances. He is basically fantasy relevant only for his steals, but 25+ stolen bases is still worth owning. I’ve been bullish and bearish on Crisp before, but assuming his playing time doesn’t take a hit when Yeonis Cespedes comes back, Crisp is worth owning. With just a 27% ownership rate in Yahoo! and ESPN, he should be available in your league. Don’t let those steals waste on the waiver wire.

Adrian Gonzalez – In Yahoo! formats A-Gon is now available to play in RF/OF. Gonzalez is an incredible talent and with new found position flexibility, his fantasy value is through the roof. For his career Gonzalez is a .373 wOBA hitter. Those guys don’t exactly grow on trees. Even with his struggles this year, he has yet to hit lower than fifth in the line up. The walks are down a bit and the strike outs are elevated, but I contribute that to him pressing at the plate. His O-Swing% is the highest of his career, but only superficially higher than last year. He just hit his fourth homer of the season yesterday, so maybe he is finally breaking out. If you drafted Gonzalez and stuck with him through the spring then enjoy the summer; I think he’ll have a great one. Read the rest of this entry »