AL OF Stock Watch
Today brings the latest up and down trends in the American League outfield.
Bullish:
Coco Crisp – I don’t think there is another player alive that I have floundered on more than Crisp. Originally enticed by the hopes of another near 50 stolen base year, I ranked him aggresively in my first AL OF Tiered Rankings. Then the season started and he promptly fell flat on his face. He clearly struggling at the plate, but his running game is still quite effective. Even yesterday he managed to go two for two on stolen bases. Going back to last year, that makes 29 straight steals without being caught. ZiPS rest of season predicts about a .250 batting average with 20 bags, but I would take the over on Crisp’s SB. His future average won’t ever offer much, even after adjusting for his current .179 BABIP. Crisp’s line drive percentage of just 13.3% ranks in the bottom 10 of all position players with at least 100 plate appearances. He is basically fantasy relevant only for his steals, but 25+ stolen bases is still worth owning. I’ve been bullish and bearish on Crisp before, but assuming his playing time doesn’t take a hit when Yeonis Cespedes comes back, Crisp is worth owning. With just a 27% ownership rate in Yahoo! and ESPN, he should be available in your league. Don’t let those steals waste on the waiver wire.
Adrian Gonzalez – In Yahoo! formats A-Gon is now available to play in RF/OF. Gonzalez is an incredible talent and with new found position flexibility, his fantasy value is through the roof. For his career Gonzalez is a .373 wOBA hitter. Those guys don’t exactly grow on trees. Even with his struggles this year, he has yet to hit lower than fifth in the line up. The walks are down a bit and the strike outs are elevated, but I contribute that to him pressing at the plate. His O-Swing% is the highest of his career, but only superficially higher than last year. He just hit his fourth homer of the season yesterday, so maybe he is finally breaking out. If you drafted Gonzalez and stuck with him through the spring then enjoy the summer; I think he’ll have a great one.
Nelson Cruz – Cruz is another guy that I’ve waffled on. Fortunately, I had a waffling clause written into my RotoGraphs contract. After looking lost at the plate in his first 100 PA, I began to worry that Cruz’s reaction time and bat speed had slowed down. Long story short: no. No it has not slowed down. Over the last 14 days, Cruz has hit .286 with 3 homers, 14 RBI’s and even a stolen base. Even with a day or two off each week, Cruz should still be able to tally those counting numbers: he is still a valuable asset to any fantasy league. Of course, if you’re in an OBP league, then a little bit of shine comes off of those counting numbers. I think the window to buy low on Cruz has passed.
B.J. Upton – Speaking of guys with a hot past couple of weeks, the older Upton has hit a torrid .333 with a pair of home runs and six steals. Don’t expect his current .291 AVG to continue, but if he can go back to his career home run pace and keep up with his SB track record, he could end the season with 20 homers and 40 steals. Also of note is that his walk rate has been surprisingly low for him so far this year at just 7.6%, a full 3% lower than his career norm. Upton is actually striking out less than his career average, so assuming that his plate discipline hasn’t disappeared, expect him to draw more walks going forward. Walks leads to steals and steals lead to you winning your fantasy league.
Mark Trumbo – With 21 appearances or starts in the outfield, Trumbo should be OF eligible in every format. As of today, Trumbo ranks fourth in the AL in AVG, third in OPS and tied for ninth in home runs. Playing time will be a tough go with Kendrys Morales hitting a little better as of late and Torii Hunter rejoining the team. Given his fast start, I can’t imagine that Trumbo wouldn’t be playing in at least five games a week somewhere in the outfield or at DH. I wouldn’t call his AVG and OBP a trick (“They aren’t tricks Michael, they’re illusions”), but even once his rate numbers regress, his power is legitimate and worth owning.
Bearish:
Ichiro Suzuki – Over his past 931 PA, Ichiro’s BABIP is a very human .293 and his AVG is .272. The good news is that he is still running efficiently, but the days of Ichiro being Ichiro could very well be in the past. A lot of people, myself included, were hoping for a big rebound year from him. So far that hasn’t happened yet. Now it is still possible for him to hit .330 the rest of the way, but that is a continually declining possibility. His stolen base totals make him worth owning, but his AVG isn’t anything special anymore and no one drafted him for his HR or RBI’s.
Nick Swisher – After an incredible start to the 2012 season, recently Swisher has seen a steep decline. Over the past 30 days (22 games) Swisher has hit just .198/.250/.321. With just two homers and a mere seven RBI’s in that stretch, it is safe to say that Swish is in the midst of an extended slump. His seasonal walk rate is about half of what it normally is so perhaps Swish just isn’t seeing the ball as well recently for whatever reason. His strike out rate isn’t elevated at all, so perhaps it is just a slump. These things happen. His seasonal counting numbers still look quite good at eight home runs and 30 RBI already, but his past 30 days of .251 BABIP and 5.7% walk rate have killed his rate stats. I think he’ll right himself soon, but until then he is a calamity at the plate and in your lineup.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
How does OF eligibility help A-Gon at all, unless you are trying to trade him? No one that acquired him to play 1B for their team can possibly have another comparable 1B to warrant moving him out of that slot.
I would have to guess there are a number of teams out there with A-Gon as well as any one of the following players: Adam Dunn, Billy Butler or Edwin Encarnacion. Just to name a few. Anytime a player earns eligibility in a shallower position, their value goes up to the majority of teams.
Or maybe a team’s OF has been destroyed by injuries. Usually there is better offense sitting on the waiver wire at 1B than OF, especially in shallow leagues. Instead of claiming the best FA outfielder, you grab the 1B and shift A-Gon.
I think having 1B eligibility helps if you drafted/picked up enough back ups at 1B who are having good years.
I have Prince Fielder at 1B right now, with Adam Dunn and Matt Adams in my Util spots, and Ryan Howard on the DL. I wouldn’t mind if either one of them got OF eligibility so I could put a different player in my UTL spot.
I was going to reply myself, but really everything important has been said.
Well done Jake, Dan and Tvators. Beat me to the punch.
Forgive me if I’m interpreting this wrong, but it seems as though you are decidedly negative over A-Gon’s OF eligibility. Lineup flexibility is a key part of fantasy baseball. Look at guys like Kendrick or Zobrist. Their extra eligibility makes them even more valuable.
You have it backwards Tom B.
Having a comparable 1B to A-Gon is meaningless, its how your back-up 1B stacks up to your 3 or 4 OFers that matters.
If you back-up 1B is hitting better then 2 of your 4 OFers, then moving A-Gon out there improves your lineup. It also gives the flexibility to drop a 4th OF in favor of boosting pitching or covering slumps in the infield. Or it allows you to trade your 3rd or 4th OF to upgrade your club anywhere.
Gonzalez having OF eligibility is a gigantic help to almost every team that owns him – having flexibility is always a positive, especially if it allows you to remove weak and/or unnecessary parts
Uh yeah, what he said. I have Pujols at 1B, AGon at CI, Matt Adams at DH right now. My outfield is lacking. I have an injured Maybin giving me nothing in the OF and no wiggle room to replace him. If ESPN gave AGon OF eligibility, I could stick him there, move Adams to CI, move a bench player to DH.
Obviously if Maybin comes back shortly this won’t be a big deal for much longer, but it’s just an example of how important multi-position eligibility is. It’s almost always helpful, especially between 1B and OF.
You could have other solid option at 1b that maybe you gambled on late like Dunn, Laroche or whatever combined w/ a shortage of OFs, you move Adrian to OF and slide in your other 1b
Nice Arrested Development reference.
Yes! I’m glad you caught it.
I snuck in a different AD reference in a previous post and no one got it.
I’m sorry, but I have a really hard time allowing .156/.256/.167 anywhere near my lineup. You are hyping a guy who is merely projected to go a measly .249/.307/.358 solely because of those 20 steals – but he’s an Outfielder!
Why in the world would I not instead just nab a guy like Angel Pagan (available in 35% of Yahoo leagues – including mine) who is sitting at .309/.353/.468 with a ROS projection of .278/.329/.418 and 18 steals plus a massive R & RBI advantage (proj 47 & 36 compared to Crisp at 36 & 25)
Shoot, even Gerardo Parra (Available in nearly 75%) seems a better bet. GP is at .267/.329/.393 with 10 SB in 151 PA (greater SB pace then Crisp) plus a ROS projection of .278/.336/.409 with 44 R and 36 RBI.
Or what about a much, much smarter move and go for Alcides Escobar (Avail in about 60%) who has gone .310/.344/.415 with 7 steals and is projected at .278/.317/.372 with 18 steals and the same massive R/RBI advantage (52 and 33 respectively) from a job-secured Short Stop!
Line um up and tell me who you like:
ROS .249/.307/.358, 20 SB, 36 R, 25 RBI – Coco
ROS .309/.353/.468, 18 SB, 47 R, 36 RBI – Angel
ROS .267/.329/.393, 11 SB*, 44 R, 36 RBI – Gerardo (*outpacing that by 2x+)
ROS .278/.317/.372, 18 SB, 52 R, 33 BRI – Alcides (a SS)
one thing is made clear – Just say NO to Coco!
You’re right. In my next American League Outfield Watch I’ll include Pagan who plays for the Giants and Parra who plays for Diamondbacks.
Also, is Alcides Escobar outfield eligible in your league? Because he isn’t in any of mine.
One thing is made clear: You whiffed on the title and first sentence of this piece.
David,
No, AE is not OF eligible – but I feel a lot better replacing my SS with a .278/.317/.372 hitter in an attempt to find 20-ish steals then I do replacing one of my OF with a .249/.307/.358 line. Coco is such a horrific batter with his only positive coming in a stat you can find elseware easily without sacrificing the rest of your lines. That is the point
Also, I was replying to this portion of your post:
“With just a 27% ownership rate in Yahoo! and ESPN, he should be available in your league. Don’t let those steals waste on the waiver wire.”
…and that just doesnt make sense when other options are almost certainly available to get you those steals without costing you all of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, R and RBI – things Coco just can not provide, at all.
@Hayves,
18 team mixed league with realistic salary base. Salary is probably the reason he was available, but with him on the wire in 35% of Yahoo leagues, mine is hardly the only.
Wait. You are in an 18 team league with salaries and Pagan and A. Escobar are both available?
Is it like 10 man rosters?
I never trumpeted Crisp as the savior of a fantasy team. All I said is that his ownership rate is absurdly low given his upside of stealing 25+ bags the rest of the season. Just 22 players managed to steal 25+ last year. Arbitrary cutoff, but it is still worth telling that Crisp has tremendous speed and instincts. That is why I mentioned his 29 straight successful attempts. I thought I made it pretty clear that that was the only thing worth owning him for with my line of
“He is basically fantasy relevant only for his steals, but 25+ stolen bases is still worth owning…”
I don’t think Crisp will score 80 runs the rest of the way or anything crazy. He’s a useful piece if you’re looking for speed.
I’m in a 12 team mixed keeper league with 29 man rosters and 10 man prospect lists. That makes for a total of 468 players owned or spoken for. There is basically no one worth owning on the WW/FA there. I understand deep leagues frustrations.
Nah, Escobar isnt available in my league. He is avail in 60% of the Yahoo Leagues though so most people reading this can snatch him up. In my specific main league, we run a keeper of 18 teams and 25 man rosters with 2 DLs. Both Pagan (65% owned overall, and thats up drastically from 2 weeks ago) and Parra (20% owned overall) are on the wire, and ironically Crisp is not. (his owner is basically at the salary cap already though, so replacing Coco as the 4th OF might be impossible for him)
As far as Coco himself, I just have a hard time seeing how he will continue to even get enough playing time to accumulate the 20 SB if he does hit somewhere between his current .156/.206/.167 and projected .249/.307/.358. His current .189 wOBA is Dead Last of all AL hitters with 100PA, and 4th lowest of those with 50PA – bettering only Endy Chavez, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Flaherty. That he still has a daily job is already remarkable.
But even if you are in an AL only league, you almost certainly cant handle that kind of hitting ineptitude from your OF. Downgrading a middle infielder just for steals, or even using one as your DH every so often to hopefully tap the speed has to be a better idea. Crisp likely hits worse then those middle infielders, so…
And thats the thing, 1 possible SB every 4 games while otherwise seeing a roughly 250/300/250-350 line (at best), 1 Run, 1 RBI and 0 HR… well you have to be unbelievably desperate for that possible single SB. In my league its pretty unlikely that kind of line would even be accepted from a Catcher, let alone from a position where the Average player is hitting .256/.326/.426/.752 with 1.6 Runs, 1.4 RBI, 0.4 HR and 0.26 SB per game.
Or put it this way – the guy in my league with Crisp has played him 11 times and gotten this
.176/.263/.206 line, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, 0 HR and 3 SB
Playing David Murphy (available in a whopping 90% of Yahoo Leagues) daily would have resulted in a better then League Average .260/.342/.433 line, 19 R, 15RBI, 5 HR and the same 3 SB without the horrific baggage. Think about the level of production you would need from his partner to bring a Crisp platoon up to Murphy’s level of production otherwise though.
Oh, and obviously Murphy should have probably been in your article since he is owned in only 10% of leagues and producing well in every possible category needed.
Michael Brantley (available in almost 85% of leagues) should also have been mentioned with his .273/.311/.377 line (.303 BAbip) with 25 R, 20 RBI and 8 SB plus the .272/.327/.368 with 17 SB, 59 R, 37 RBI and 4 HR ROS projection.
Crisp though? Well, just no… And I mean, I would seriously even think of suggesting Brent Lillibridge (1% owned) with his Pinch Run steals and SS/3B/OF playability over Coco – at least Brent doesnt bring down your lines as much since he almost never gets ABs (only half as many as Coco so far), yet he is still racking up more steals (7) and Runs (8) than Crisp (6 and 6, respectively). So far he’s all of Coco’s counting stats with multi-position infield flexibility and only half of the Line-Drag.
I must say, I admire your ability to write so much on a topic that you were flat out wrong on.
I don’t mean that your opinion is wrong, but that you stuck to your guns about mentioning non AL and non OF players in an AL OF article. Most people would just backpedal or not comment back, so thanks for taking the time here. Reader/writer interaction is a good thing.
All that aside the AL OF Stock Watch/Tiered rankings is something that happens every Monday (save for yesterday, as it was a holiday). The point isn’t to highlight ONLY whom I deem fit, but to highlight some each week. If you’ve read my previous things, I’ve mentioned both Brantley and Murphy in previous rankings and Stock Watches.
Basically what I’m saying is that I appreciate the feedback, but you were 100% wrong on your first comment.
Of course, communication is free but produces so much positive – even fights are often productive in some ways. That said, we are apparently holding two different conversations. Bringing up Crisp isnt a problem – endorsing Crisp is where the problem comes in. My point is, has always been and will always remain, Crisp is horrific and there are so many other ways to get the only thing you are praising him for – in other leagues, in other positions or even in other AL outfields.
Sure it is a AL Stock Watch, but stock still has to be compared to alternatives people could make instead of just a microscopic bubble no one lives in. And when any possible alternatives are considered, Crisp is horrific.
A proper write up could go something along the lines of:
Crisp – you might get some steals, but can you handle No Runs, No RBI, No HR and a batting line in the range of a high-school SS in your OF? Save yourself the headache and add Bent Lillibridge; he almost never plays but will still get you similar counting stats in about half the slash-line killing ABs; plus you can slot him at SS or 3B to cover off days!
Or how about this as a write-up:
.280/.346/.375, 3 HR, 50 R, 28 RBI, 14 SB – Denard Span (owned in 21%)
.256/.299/.372, 3 HR, 37 R, 26 RBI, 23 SB – Rajai Davis ROS (owned in 4%)
.240/.299/.303, 1 HR, 39 R, 18 RBI, 24 SB – Jarrod Dyson ROS (owned in 2%)
.249/.307/.358, 4 HR, 36 R, 25 RBI, 20 SB – Coco Crisp (owned in 26%)
.252/.315/.342, 3 HR, 31 R, 22 RBI, 15 SB – Craig Gentry (owned in 1%)
.221/.299/.344, 7 HR, 45 R, 28 RBI, 10 SB* – Michael Suanders ROS (owned in 4%)
(*currently running at nearly 2x the pace)
…If you’re just that desperate, take your pick. Span should of course be your first target as he has the best skills, but you have plenty of options if he is somehow gone in your league. Overall they represent nearly interchangeable OF scraps, with each providing a steal or two a week if you can suffer the absolute blackhole otherwise.
So I’m sorry, but I’m not wrong. My point is that Crisp should NOT be endorsed as if he is a good target for anyone. He just isnt, and there is nothing anywhere saying he is. He’s a possibility to see less playing time, he has but one positive, and even that is matched to bettered by plenty of other moves and alternatives readers can certainly make that will probably pay off better in other areas as well.
People read these articles. Reading a post saying I shouldn’t “let those steals waste on the waiver wire” when there are similar steals absolutely everywhere is something which will have people taking the articles less seriously though, or even start to ignore them.
I’ve written about Span, Saunders and Davis ad nauseum.
Again, this is a rotating cycle of names. Not a end all be all list. It’s finite.
And dude, come on. Address your initial points: You listed 2 guys in the NL and a non-OF eligible SS. In an AL OF article.
Come on man. It’s cool. Pride is good. But come on.
pride? I just dont see “AL OF Stock Watch” meaning “only read this if you need to add to your Al-Only, OF-Only leagues” – I see it as a real evaluation of talent and stock for players who happen to play the OF in the AL. If a person plays in AL only league, of course NL players are not options for them to add. Most people who read this play in mixed leagues though, most people can add players to spots other then just OF, and most people would probably be able to recognize Crisp as being a questionable option even if limited to AL OFers considering the amount of nearly identical guys even more readily available – well, at least they would recognize that if they were advised of numerous identical options being available instead of being sold only one of the worst such names.
But much more importantly, why is it we should not “let those steals waste on the waiver wire” when it comes to Crisp? He is first in your Bullish category, the only player mentioned in this article likely available to readers, and the only person you are openly telling people they should add.
“Crisp is worth owning” – so why? With at least one of Crisp, Span, Davis, Dyson, Saunders and Gentry almost always available on the waiver wire, why would it be worth owning the guy hitting the worst, in the worst environment to hit, off the injury, with likely the least secure job? Similarly, who should I be dropping to add Crisp? How often should I be playing Crisp – should he fill a regular spot on my team? Why is it now that I should own him? I mean, isnt he in a .069/.069/.069/.138, 2-29 stretch since coming off the DL? But that’s a guy “worth owning” based off Fangraphs Stock Watch? So, as opposed to who?
Someone like maybe, Swish? Because Swisher “is a calamity at the plate and in your lineup” that also happens to be at .294/.278/.588/.866 with 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 R and 3 RBI (and went 1-4 with an RBI again tonight) on the current road trip (now up to 22 PA) after his horrific slump. You know, maybe Nicks stock could be rising based off his most recent games. Oh, and of course it looks like Crisp might be further falling apart before our very eyes. If only there were some type of Stock Watch article to help us out with such things…
I think I’ve explained my points and reasoning at sufficient length.
I don’t have anything more to add to this, and it seems as though you don’t either.
Next Monday I roll out the updated AL OF Tiered Rankings. I hope you’ll continue to keep reading and commenting reasonably.
Hayves, Sam cs3 etc. seem to agree with me and my points about what this article stands for. I apologize if there was confusion on your part, or if I didn’t make it clear.
What this article “stands for” ultimately doesn’t matter – hyping Crisp is what has always mattered. So why not just answer the questions I posed on him if you stand by the stance?
Fangraphs should be expert analysis based off real trends, not nonsensical feelings with no statistical backing. That’s what I take issue with, and I do hope you stay away from such situations moving forward after really stepping in it this week.
Why is Pagan available in your league? Sounds like you shouldn’t even be reading an article about coco crisp.
Two NL OFs and a guy who hasn’t played 1 game at any outfield position this year or last?
0-3, 3 K. DFA to follow.
BlahBlahBlah –
1) How did that bitch slap feel?
2) how is Pagan not owned in your league? Either you are an idiot (likely), all your league mates are idiots (maybe?), or the league is so shallow that you shouldnt even bother playing.
3) why in the world did you waste so much time typing all that utter crap when you were 100% wrong on every single point you attempted to make?
you did not make a single valid argument in that entire rambling pile of nonsense
Aw come on, that kind of language isn’t need.
We had a solid discussion. No need to rub mud on the FG/RG name with insults like that.
1 – I wasnt bitch slapped. Its the internet; oh, and I’m still right.
2 – Pagan is available in 35% of Yahoo leagues, and is available in mine because he was a DL fill-in until about 3 weeks ago. You point though?
3 – you must be a complete moron. But do feel free to add Crisp to your roster, I’m sure you will love the .069/.069/.069/.138, 2-29 stretch he is on. That stock is rise, Rise, RISING I tell ya…
David, I read one of blahblah douchebags comments and realized reading anymore would be a waste of time. If someone else managed to waste their time reading all of his comments, I could see being very upset and wanting to curse at him. I actually can’t believe you commented as much as you did without getting angry at all the stupidity. Kudos!
BlahBlahBlah, indeed.
I’ve been bullish and bearish on Crisp before, but assuming his playing time doesn’t take a hit when Yoenis Cespedes comes back,
Real baseball fandom hopes his playing time decreases, significantly.
i mean my real life fandom, of course.
But I agree on the steals point for Crisp.