AL OF Stock Watch

Today brings the latest up and down trends in the American League outfield.

Bullish:
Coco Crisp – I don’t think there is another player alive that I have floundered on more than Crisp. Originally enticed by the hopes of another near 50 stolen base year, I ranked him aggresively in my first AL OF Tiered Rankings. Then the season started and he promptly fell flat on his face. He clearly struggling at the plate, but his running game is still quite effective. Even yesterday he managed to go two for two on stolen bases. Going back to last year, that makes 29 straight steals without being caught. ZiPS rest of season predicts about a .250 batting average with 20 bags, but I would take the over on Crisp’s SB. His future average won’t ever offer much, even after adjusting for his current .179 BABIP. Crisp’s line drive percentage of just 13.3% ranks in the bottom 10 of all position players with at least 100 plate appearances. He is basically fantasy relevant only for his steals, but 25+ stolen bases is still worth owning. I’ve been bullish and bearish on Crisp before, but assuming his playing time doesn’t take a hit when Yeonis Cespedes comes back, Crisp is worth owning. With just a 27% ownership rate in Yahoo! and ESPN, he should be available in your league. Don’t let those steals waste on the waiver wire.

Adrian Gonzalez – In Yahoo! formats A-Gon is now available to play in RF/OF. Gonzalez is an incredible talent and with new found position flexibility, his fantasy value is through the roof. For his career Gonzalez is a .373 wOBA hitter. Those guys don’t exactly grow on trees. Even with his struggles this year, he has yet to hit lower than fifth in the line up. The walks are down a bit and the strike outs are elevated, but I contribute that to him pressing at the plate. His O-Swing% is the highest of his career, but only superficially higher than last year. He just hit his fourth homer of the season yesterday, so maybe he is finally breaking out. If you drafted Gonzalez and stuck with him through the spring then enjoy the summer; I think he’ll have a great one.

Nelson Cruz – Cruz is another guy that I’ve waffled on. Fortunately, I had a waffling clause written into my RotoGraphs contract. After looking lost at the plate in his first 100 PA, I began to worry that Cruz’s reaction time and bat speed had slowed down. Long story short: no. No it has not slowed down. Over the last 14 days, Cruz has hit .286 with 3 homers, 14 RBI’s and even a stolen base. Even with a day or two off each week, Cruz should still be able to tally those counting numbers: he is still a valuable asset to any fantasy league. Of course, if you’re in an OBP league, then a little bit of shine comes off of those counting numbers. I think the window to buy low on Cruz has passed.

B.J. Upton – Speaking of guys with a hot past couple of weeks, the older Upton has hit a torrid .333 with a pair of home runs and six steals. Don’t expect his current .291 AVG to continue, but if he can go back to his career home run pace and keep up with his SB track record, he could end the season with 20 homers and 40 steals. Also of note is that his walk rate has been surprisingly low for him so far this year at just 7.6%, a full 3% lower than his career norm. Upton is actually striking out less than his career average, so assuming that his plate discipline hasn’t disappeared, expect him to draw more walks going forward. Walks leads to steals and steals lead to you winning your fantasy league.

Mark Trumbo – With 21 appearances or starts in the outfield, Trumbo should be OF eligible in every format. As of today, Trumbo ranks fourth in the AL in AVG, third in OPS and tied for ninth in home runs. Playing time will be a tough go with Kendrys Morales hitting a little better as of late and Torii Hunter rejoining the team. Given his fast start, I can’t imagine that Trumbo wouldn’t be playing in at least five games a week somewhere in the outfield or at DH. I wouldn’t call his AVG and OBP a trick (“They aren’t tricks Michael, they’re illusions”), but even once his rate numbers regress, his power is legitimate and worth owning.

Bearish:
Ichiro Suzuki – Over his past 931 PA, Ichiro’s BABIP is a very human .293 and his AVG is .272. The good news is that he is still running efficiently, but the days of Ichiro being Ichiro could very well be in the past. A lot of people, myself included, were hoping for a big rebound year from him. So far that hasn’t happened yet. Now it is still possible for him to hit .330 the rest of the way, but that is a continually declining possibility. His stolen base totals make him worth owning, but his AVG isn’t anything special anymore and no one drafted him for his HR or RBI’s.

Nick Swisher – After an incredible start to the 2012 season, recently Swisher has seen a steep decline. Over the past 30 days (22 games) Swisher has hit just .198/.250/.321. With just two homers and a mere seven RBI’s in that stretch, it is safe to say that Swish is in the midst of an extended slump. His seasonal walk rate is about half of what it normally is so perhaps Swish just isn’t seeing the ball as well recently for whatever reason. His strike out rate isn’t elevated at all, so perhaps it is just a slump. These things happen. His seasonal counting numbers still look quite good at eight home runs and 30 RBI already, but his past 30 days of .251 BABIP and 5.7% walk rate have killed his rate stats. I think he’ll right himself soon, but until then he is a calamity at the plate and in your lineup.





You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.

29 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Tom B
11 years ago

How does OF eligibility help A-Gon at all, unless you are trying to trade him? No one that acquired him to play 1B for their team can possibly have another comparable 1B to warrant moving him out of that slot.

Jake
11 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

I would have to guess there are a number of teams out there with A-Gon as well as any one of the following players: Adam Dunn, Billy Butler or Edwin Encarnacion. Just to name a few. Anytime a player earns eligibility in a shallower position, their value goes up to the majority of teams.

Or maybe a team’s OF has been destroyed by injuries. Usually there is better offense sitting on the waiver wire at 1B than OF, especially in shallow leagues. Instead of claiming the best FA outfielder, you grab the 1B and shift A-Gon.

Dan S.
11 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

I think having 1B eligibility helps if you drafted/picked up enough back ups at 1B who are having good years.

I have Prince Fielder at 1B right now, with Adam Dunn and Matt Adams in my Util spots, and Ryan Howard on the DL. I wouldn’t mind if either one of them got OF eligibility so I could put a different player in my UTL spot.

BlahBlahBlah
11 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

You have it backwards Tom B.

Having a comparable 1B to A-Gon is meaningless, its how your back-up 1B stacks up to your 3 or 4 OFers that matters.

If you back-up 1B is hitting better then 2 of your 4 OFers, then moving A-Gon out there improves your lineup. It also gives the flexibility to drop a 4th OF in favor of boosting pitching or covering slumps in the infield. Or it allows you to trade your 3rd or 4th OF to upgrade your club anywhere.

Gonzalez having OF eligibility is a gigantic help to almost every team that owns him – having flexibility is always a positive, especially if it allows you to remove weak and/or unnecessary parts

Zach
11 years ago
Reply to  BlahBlahBlah

Uh yeah, what he said. I have Pujols at 1B, AGon at CI, Matt Adams at DH right now. My outfield is lacking. I have an injured Maybin giving me nothing in the OF and no wiggle room to replace him. If ESPN gave AGon OF eligibility, I could stick him there, move Adams to CI, move a bench player to DH.

Obviously if Maybin comes back shortly this won’t be a big deal for much longer, but it’s just an example of how important multi-position eligibility is. It’s almost always helpful, especially between 1B and OF.