When Austin Jackson, the Tigers’ centerpiece in the Curtis Granderson trade, came out of the gates flying in early 2010, baseball was abuzz about the young gun patrolling the outfield grasses at Comerica Park. However, many savvy fantasy owners who had scooped him up spun him quickly, seeing a near 0.500 BABIP (with little other substance otherwise) was driving his gaudy rookie-year numbers, and Jackson subsequently sunk back down into the realm of average, but not spectacular outfielders. He sat there in 2011, watching some of his 2010 rates sag even further; here was the traditional case of a guy with a lot of buzz, but not a lot of early career numbers to back it up. Fantasy owners were (rightfully) wary headed in 2012. ESPN’s average draft position tracker had Jackson 18th among centerfielder, 50th among all outfielders, and 216th overall; in other words, a guy who was either selected at the tail end in most drafts or even saw some time on the waiver wire early in the season. However, most know the next line in the story — Jackson blew away his preseason valuation while seeing nearly across-the-board improvements in 2012 and climbing all the way to 19th overall (among OF) in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings.

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Headed into 2012, Mark Trumbo stood pretty close to the top of the “most overrated lists” from the perspective of most advanced baseball sites. Yes, 29 homers, 87 runs batted in, and a second-place finish in the Rookie of the Year ballot in 2011 looked really nice on the surface, but you didn’t have to look too hard to see signs of concern beyond that. The ugly .291 OBP stands out, of course, but the high strikeout rate and total inability to take a walk were even more concerning. Of the 145 qualified hitters in 2011, only two had a lower BB/K mark, and beating out Miguel Olivo for anything should hardly be a cause for celebration. It wasn’t hard to think that pitchers could exploit that weakness in Trumbo’s second time around the league, especially when he would also have to contend with attempting to learn a new position. With the imported Albert Pujols and the recovering Kendrys Morales taking most of the first base / designated hitter time, Trumbo was asked to try to convert to third base.

This all made for a very uncertain forecast for the 26-year-old Angel, one that tempered many expectations… and then he defied us all by getting off to a crazy hot start. By the end of a phenomenal May, Trumbo was sitting at .348/.396/.632, and while third base hadn’t quite worked out, his bat was reason enough for the Angels to cut Bobby Abreu and minimize Vernon Wells in order to give Trumbo regular playing time in the outfield corners. Over the next two months, the average and OBP dropped as you’d expect, but the power remained, with 17 blasts over June & July along with a place on the American League All-Star team. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of days ago, I used comparable players to show how much regression should be expected from Mike Trout. Today, I am going to dive into Trout’s numbers from last season and see if any red flags exist.

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For the most part, I was always terrible at those “Choose Your Own Adventure Book!” It wasn’t that I didn’t enjoy them, I did, but I would pick a route, then if I didn’t like where that was headed, I’d flip back and pick a different option. Unfortunately, outside of trading or straight dropping a player, we don’t have that option in the fantasy baseball realm.

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It’s time again to jump back into Zach Sander’s Outfield End of Season Rankings and pull out another gem for us to discuss. And since I live in the Bay Area and have a hankering to “poke the bear in the zoo” and have my house egged next Halloween for blasphemy, it’s time to fire up all you Giants fans and dissect one of your darling World Champions. So let’s scroll on down to good ol’ number 29 and talk about Hunter Pence. Read the rest of this entry »

If there was a roller coaster ride named after a baseball hitter, its name would be Alex Rios. The White Sox outfielder has given fantasy owners and projection makers fits trying to make sense of his ups and downs. But there he was, sitting happily at the fifth slot among outfielders, having earned $22 for the 2012 season. Is this just 2010 all over again that will be followed with another 2011, or are we witnessing a new Alex Rios?

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It’s not like George Peppard is standing in front of his GMC with a stubby cigar in his mouth mumbling something about a plan coming together, but the Seattle Mariners must think something similar when it comes to Michael Saunders. After three failed experiments at the Major League level, Saunders, 26, finally showed some of the promise the club hoped for as early as 2007.

Over 553 plate appearances, Saunders hit 19 home runs, stole 21 bases, hitting 31 doubles and three triples. His .247/.306/.432 line could use some improvement but there were enough positives in his 2012 season that Saunders stands towards the front of the line of post-hype sleepers coming into 2013.

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C’mon readers of RotoGraphs, you didn’t really think I was going to let the year end without another piece on Adam Jones from me, did you? I was just waiting for the appropriate time and with the release of Zach Sanders’ Outfielder End of Season Rankings, that time is now. So scroll on down to number six, check out those numbers and $21 value and let’s talk about Baltimore’s number one outfielder. Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Harper arrived much earlier than anyone expected. When the Nationals called up their 19-year-old uber-prospect, it was simply because injuries forced them into the situation. The initial word was that Harper would only play in the majors until the rest of the team was healthy. But Harper’s performance forced the Nationals to keep him around for the rest of the season. And by September, Harper had emerged as one of the team’s best offensive players. Had it not been for Mike Trout, Harper would have received even more accolades for his accomplishments at such a young age. Harper was as good as anyone could have expected last season. So, the big question is: what the heck is he going to do for an encore?

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I have been a huge fan of Desmond Jennings as he climbed the minor league ladder. He looked like he could potentially be a Carl Crawford clone for fantasy leaguers with mid-teen home run potential, a boat load of stolen bases and a good batting average buoyed by a solid contact rate. But after teasing us with a 24 homer/48 steal season prorated to 600 at-bats in 2011, he was a bit of a disappointment this year.

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