It’s easy to make buy low and sell high calls. Anyone could compare a player’s current season ranking with his preseason and blindly advise fantasy owners to acquire or trade away said player. While that advice sometimes does have value, perhaps more beneficial is identifying players you should not attempt to buy at a discount or trade away at an assumed profit. That is why we sometimes have the “Not a Sleeper, Not a Bust” segment on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast, as we highlight players who should not be purchased at a discount (and are therefore Not a Sleeper) or sold high (and are therefore Not a Bust). So sticking with the Not a Sleeper theme, this is why I am not buying B.J. Upton.

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If you’re in a league that designates outfielder slots, this isn’t quite true, but in most leagues: outfielders are the pitchers of the lineup. Not that they hit like pitchers — I wouldn’t wish that on anyone — it’s that they are just ‘outfielders’ and it doesn’t matter if they play center or left or right. That simple fact alone means that there will always be more outfielders. While you have to populate ‘second basemen’ and ‘third basemen,’ you’ll always have this one big pool of outfielders, and you just have to get three of them. You could get three plodding old man outfielders, as long as you got your speed on the infield! And the outfield is the last (okay, second-to-last) resort for bats with no glove.

In any case, there’s some offensive talent here. So much we couldn’t even decide who was number one. (I’m personally not worried about Bud Selig and the papers from that clinic, not with the power of the MLBPA, but Mike Trout is too sexy.) I might be worried about Matt Kemp‘s shoulder, and Jason Heyward‘s insides and maybe Giancarlo Stanton’s everything?

But, judging mostly on the color coding, it looks like the outfield has mostly been a profitable enterprise.

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Houston Astros outfield prospect George Springer has some of the loudest tools in the minor leagues. He’s a fantastic athlete with a combination of power and speed that’s rarely found in a player drafted out of college – and a cold weather college at that. Springer has put up some exciting numbers as a professional and offers hope for both fantasy owners and an Astros franchise that really could use some good news.

The Breakdown

The New Britain, Connecticut native attended Avon Old Farms School. Avon has been one of the better high school baseball programs in the state in recent years and has sent many players on to Division 1 programs. The Minnesota Twins were intrigued by the raw tools and gave the outfielder a look in the 48th round. Springer didn’t sign and ended up going to UConn as expected. He hit well as a freshman (.358/.454/.679 with 16 home runs) and never stopped hitting for the Huskies. Scouts flocked to the Storrs campus to see Springer along with teammates Mike Olt, Matt Barnes and Nick Ahmed. Springer didn’t disappoint and then also wowed scouting directors on the Cape. He had worked his way into consideration for the top half of the 1st round as a Junior, and the Astros ended up nabbing him with the 11th overall pick. Springer destroyed the California League last season to the tune of .316/.398/.557. He’s off to one of the best starts of any minor leaguer this year with 13 home runs already for Double-A Corpus Christi. The flip side of the coin here is that both those leagues are hitter-friendly and strikeouts have been frequent. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s take another dive into the free agent pool,
With the hopes of finding a hitter with more than one tool,
So you don’t end up looking like a fool.

You may find more of Pod’s Poems on the forthcoming PoemGraphs, where we calculate RARP (rhymes above replacement poet) and discuss the ridiculousness of haikus (really, a poem that doesn’t rhyme? that’s NOT a poem).

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When we, the writers of RotoGraphs, were presenting our 10 Bold Predictions, number six on my list was that Jarrod Dyson would lead the American League in stolen bases. I was basing it on his 30 steals in a part-time role last year, that he was opening this season in the bigs as the Royals’ fourth outfielder and that between Lorenzo Cain’s propensity for injury and Jeff Francoeur’s inability to hit, he would see plenty of time in a starting role. Well right now, he’s got six steals which is half of what the current AL leader has, and while Cain has remained surprisingly healthy so far, Francoeur is certainly doing his part to help my cause. If he’s sitting there on your waiver wire, it’s time to pick up Dyson. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Carter (ESPN: 21.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 23 percent owned)

In the minor leagues, he never had a full season OPS under .800, nor has he hit fewer than 10 home runs in a season, yet Chris Carter has also never played even half a season in the majors. His power is not really up for discussion; he has hit at every level, including the majors, but his ability to contribute beyond 25-30 home runs a season is what has kept him from getting a serious shot in the majors until this year.

The move to Houston in the offseason was good for Carter’s value in a couple ways. First, unlike Oakland, who has designs on competing for the AL West title again this year, the Astros have a greater incentive to see what he can do given a full year of playing time than they have to sit him if he hits an extended cold spell. Second, given that the vast majority of Carter’s value comes from his HR and RBI potential, heading from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a far more hitter-friendly one should be a boon for his value. Read the rest of this entry »

As we’ve discussed a few times already this year, knowing when to officially cut bait seems to be a lost art form in the fantasy world. All too often, owners hold onto a sell-high candidate for too long and by the time they get around to shopping him, he’s in the midst of an expected slump and every owner declines to deal because they know you’re going to drop the guy soon enough anyway. Either that or you’ve senselessly fallen in love with the hot start and your false hope causes you to endure weeks of 0-for’s, foolishly thinking he’s going to get back to that early-season dreamland where you first met. Whatever the case may be, it’s important for you to recognize when it’s time to say goodbye to a player as your team will only suffer each and every year until you do. So to help with your fantasy regularity, here’s a few players you should consider dumping to lighten your load. Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Eaton’s impending return is certainly a cause for concern for Gerardo Parra owners. Those who scooped up the Venezuelan outfielder upon Eaton’s then reported 6-8 week injury have reaped the rewards of a .300 average, just under 25 runs scored and four stolen bases. The issue now with Parra is the same issue as spring training began. There are too many outfielders in Arizona for all of them to get equal playing time, and Parra is the quintessential fourth outfielder when looking at the other available options.
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Center fielder Brian Goodwin has quickly become one of the brightest lights in the Washington Nationals farm system. Goodwin tantalized amateur scouts with his tools since high school. There was  some questions about how ready he was for pro ball, but so far the Nats look like they made a shrewd investment in the talented prospect.

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While a month still isn’t the greatest of sample sizes to cast judgment, now is when you have to start making some of the tougher decisions as to whether or not it’s in your team’s best interest to give up on certain players and start picking up guys who can help you in specific categories or if you should just continue to grin and bear it through their hard times. The decision of whether or not to cut someone is a little easier to make (or not make as the case may be) in deeper leagues as the waiver wire is far from flush with talent, but in leagues more shallow, there’s plenty still from which to choose. Here’s a look at two who, based on ownership percentages, could be available in your league… Read the rest of this entry »