As we close in on the Major League trade deadline, non-contending teams are making moves to open up spots for their prospects. This is a blessing for deep league owners as finally there are more choices available to pick up besides fifth outfielders and the last man in the bullpen. Both the Astros and Cubs are looking toward the future and have recently introduced us to some new faces.
My ideal set of rankings has input from both human and computer sources. In our rankings, we have one set of ranks that are built on projections, meaning that overall our rankings are 25% computer. That’s low for me. But I know that our other three human rankers also use the computer projections to varying degrees, so the number is probably closer to 50% computer, which I like.
But, ostensibly, we have one computer ranker. Jeff Zimmerman uses a proprietary mix of ZiPs and Steamer projections, and then takes the plate appearance projections from our depth charts. Every once in a while a player won’t be updated on the depth charts — human error — but if we stay vigilant, this mix should produce the best computer-generated rankings you can find. The addition of depth chart information can do a lot to undo the biggest flaw in projections: they don’t always know who has the job.
One remaining avenue to deal with with respect to the computer rankings is what to do with the missing plate appearances due to projected injury. Zimmerman has done a lot to advance the state of injury projections, and some of that is now built into the various projections he uses. We know that past DL stints predict future ones, for example. And that age is a heavy factor. But once those PAs and IPs are gone, they can be replaced through the waiver wire.
After setting the world on fire this past April with a .283/.388/.566 line with five home runs, things have slowed down considerably for Coco Crisp in recent weeks. A quick glance of his batting average doesn’t tell the full story (just as one would expect with batting average) as he repeated his .283 average in May. His May was shortened due to a stint on the disabled list, but for the first eight weeks of his season Crisp looked like a different hitter.
For the first time since 2009 — when he received all of 209 plate appearances — Crisp’s first half walk rate is in double digits, currently at a healthy 11.6%. With already nine home runs on the season he already has more homers this year than in two of the previous three seasons. He’s also managed to trim his strikeout rate down to a tidy 10.6%, the 15th best mark in qualified baseball. In a somewhat recent podcast the present author stated that selling high on Crisp may be a good idea. The question hung in mind of the author and thus Crisp became a subject that required further delving in to.
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Two years removed from an MVP-caliber season and coming off an injury-shortened campaign in 2012, Jacoby Ellsbury was a popular value-pick for many fantasy owners in the fourth-or-fifth rounds. His average draft position was 43.7 this spring, which placed him ahead of guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Holliday. He was expected to produce, so when he hit .241/.303/.335 in his first 44 games this season, many owners were understandably frustrated.
Since that arbitrary point of May 20, though, Ellsbury has been one of the top-producing fantasy outfielders in all of baseball, torching opposing pitchers with a .382/.446/.532 slash line. In fact, in the last 30 days, he’s been the fifth-best overall player in ESPN leagues. Only Chris Davis and his home run binge has prevented him from being the number one fantasy outfielder in the past 30 days.
Many owners are not necessarily wondering if this hot streak is legitimate. It’s ridiculous to expect Ellsbury to continue hitting at almost a .400 clip throughout the remainder of the year. Instead, some are beginning to wonder if this impressive stretch at the plate is an indicator that the 2011 version of Jacoby Ellsbury is lurking around the corner. Because that would be a game-changer and perhaps even a reason for owners to buy high.
As a Seattle resident, I have the pleasure of attending a good number of Mariner’s games each year, mostly in the company of another founding member of ottoneu (owner of this team). A couple weeks back, we attended a game and marveled at the massive swings being taken by one Raul Ibanez, which led to one of us commenting, “It’s like he’s decided, ‘Screw it – I’m old and I am going to try to crush the ball, even if I can’t do anything else.”
It reminded me of the Jerry Seinfeld quip about old people backing out of their driveways: “I’m old and I’m coming back! I survived, let’s see if you can.”
In a time where names like Stephen Strasburg, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Gerrit Cole are dominating the headlines, rookie hype is making it awfully difficult for fantasy owners to acquire the services of several youngsters who are supposed to be leading us into a new generation of MLB superstars. But occasionally we get lucky and some diamonds-in-the-rough pass through without too much fanfare and linger on your waiver wire until they break out with a big game that lands them on an ESPN or MLB Network highlight reel. Darin Ruf and Sonny Gray may be well-known to the hardcore fantasy players, but without someone standing on a soapbox with a bullhorn, screaming “Pick this guy up now,” both seem to have slipped through the cracks in many leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
As long as you don’t own the player heading to the disable list, injuries could be a good thing. They open up opportunities for others and provide the chance for increased playing time. That is the theme of today’s deep league waiver wire. Even better, both these men have dual eligibility at both first base and outfield. Jackpot!
When I heard the news that 41-year old Manny Ramirez signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers, I just laughed. Usually when I hear news of a player who is unable to accept that the game of baseball is finished with him, I feel bad; sympathetic to the notion that, no matter what you do, you just can’t stop time. But in this case, there is no sympathy. How do you feel bad for a guy who, not only was a complete [insert your own expletive here] throughout his career, but was also caught cheating on more than one occasion and opted to leave the game rather than accept his punishment? You don’t. You move on and leave the past in the past. Read the rest of this entry »
Today we have the latest batch of American League outfield rankings. There are some prospects climbing in the ranks rapidly as well as some injured veterans plummeting in value.
Tier One
Mike Trout
Chris Davis
No change here, and no real surprise either. An argument could be made that Davis deserves the number one spot, but the steals tip the scale in Trout’s favor. At this point, no one would whine about having either of these guys on their fantasy team.
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Excitement! Intrigue! Royalty! It’s a an all Royals edition of the deep league waiver wire which I am positive is the best thing you learned all day. A bad offense creates opportunities and has opened up playing time for two interesting names.
