Over the last few seasons, the Padres outfield has provided fantasy owners with plenty of waiver fodder, stream starts, and emergency band-aids. That may sound dismissive, but Padres outfielders have been a source of the cheap fantasy glue that is necessary to win championships. Their 2014 unit looks poised to pick up the mantle.
Will Venable broke out a bit in 2013, hitting a career high 22 homeruns while also stealing over 20 bases for the fourth consecutive season. His power/speed combo is bound to garner attention going into 2014 fantasy drafts and auctions. With a middling batting average—his .268 mark in 2013 was also a career high—and while playing for a team that is likely to keep both his Run and RBI totals in the 50-60 range, much of Venable’s allure will be tied up in whether owners think he’ll continue to be a 20/20 player going forward.
His stolen base potential is a matter for a different day (and probably a different person); instead I’ve compiled some information to try to determine from whence Venable’s 2013 power surge came, and whether we can expect it to continue.
I’ll cut to the chase right from the start: George Springer is worth drafting in mixed re-draft leagues in 2014. Even if he doesn’t start the year on the major-league roster, he has the potential to be an impact player from the moment he arrives in the bigs.
I saw Springer play quite a bit last year, both in the Double-A Texas League and in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. It’s hard to describe how much Springer stood out from his competition at both of those levels. I guess I could just point to the fact that his weighted offense was about 75% above league-average in both leagues, or that he hit 37 home runs and stole 45 bases on the year.
It looks like it’s done. Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks, Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Angels, and Adam Eaton to the White Sox. Who wins? Who loses? Let’s shake the tree and see what falls out.
David Murphy ranked 88th among outfielders in Zach Sanders’ rankings, worth negative $5. His disappointing season allowed the Cleveland Indians to sign the 32-year-old platoon outfielder to an affordable two-year, $12 million contract. In Cleveland, he’ll likely platoon with lefty masher Drew Stubbs. His predictable platoon, ability to produce at an average level in all five categories, and poor 2013 combine to make Murphy a cheap late-draft target.
Writer’s Note: Alex Gordon ranked 24th on Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings among outfielders.
I think the way I’ve always thought of/considered Alex Gordon is as the player whom, when stuck with, finally rewarded his team’s patience. And it sort of feels weird to call it ‘patience’ when he shuttled between Kansas City and Omaha countless times even after he had two seasons of 100-plus big league games under his belt.
In fact, I think that’s what surprised me most about breaking down Gordon. I knew from being an AL Central-centric viewer that his 2011 ‘breakout’ came at an age (27) and experience level (season five) that doesn’t typically equate when it comes to a player who hasn’t experienced a change of scenery. Read the rest of this entry »
There were many caution signs thrown up by fantasy baseball prognosticators when it came to Josh Hamilton’s expected 2013 output. His penchant for swinging at virtually any reachable pitch being among the primary arguments that he just couldn’t keep up his pace. But when it came to draft day, many managers had a hard time looking past that beastly .285/.354/.577 with 43 home runs and 128 RBI from 2012. As a result, he was coming off the board in second and third rounds and his price sat well into the $30’s in most formats.
When Jayson Werth left the Phillies after three consecutive seasons in which he was worth around five wins and jumped to the Nationals for a massive seven year, $126m contract after 2010, it was easy to bash it. He was headed into his age-32 season, he’d had injuries in his past, and he’d been very good, but never a superstar. That got easier when he had a very disappointing 2011 debut, then missed half of 2012 with a broken left wrist.
Then, at age 34, he went out and had something of a career year, topping the .400 wOBA mark for the first time. So heading into 2014, how exactly do you project that? Read the rest of this entry »
Kole Calhoun burst onto the scene in 2013 and will be my 2014 sleeper pick . He was called up mid-season to help a banged up Angels outfield. He took advantage of the opportunity and hit the ball decently down the stretch. For 2014, the key to evaluating him, without a MLB track record, is to trust the projections and value him accordingly. He will be ranked comparably with other decent fantasy options, but he should be taken at a discount.
Confession, I like Calhoun to be one of the top fantasy sleepers in 2014. The 26-year-old lefty has not been on any top 100 prospect ranking lists as he has made his way through the minors. Before the 2013 season, our own Marc Hulet had him as the 12th top prospect in the Angels shallow farm system. Stepping through some projections, he looks like Calhoun deserves top 25 OF consideration.
Justin Upton finished the season as the 21st most valuable outfielder according to our valuations. But I can almost guarantee that he’ll be drafted higher than 21st among outfielders next year. The main reason I’m so confident in that is because he finished 2012 as the 19th most valuable outfielder according to ESPN’s player rater, and he was drafted as the seventh outfielder on average on that site in 2013. Someone in your league is sure to believe he has another 2009 or 2011 in him.
Despite finishing consecutive seasons as the 20th best outfielder give or take a spot, Upton got there in very different ways. The long and short of it is that last year his batting average fell in large part due to a big increase in his strikeout rate, his steal total fell almost 60% from where it sat in the previous four years, and a 50 point jump in ISO boosted his homer total and offset the decline in the other areas. Is there a chance those factors change and Upton realizes his upside? Or should you assume the sum of all the parts will continue to equal the 20th best outfielder one way or another? Read the rest of this entry »
