Seven days left in the season, but that has not slowed your appetite for adding talent. For the final time in 2013, we’ll take a gander at the most auctioned players across all leagues, and offer up some advice on how to proceed.
This week, we can divide the auction players into two camps – Streamers and Keepers.
As David Wiers mentioned about a week ago, Albert Pujols is done for the year, and his value in 2014 will likely be all over the board. In re-draft leagues, you have the pleasure of writing Pujols off for the next couple months and not thinking about him again until pre-season rankings come out.
However, dynasty leagues such as ottoneu will require a different look at the ailing (and maybe aging?) first basemen. In some leagues, Pujols has been (or will be) cut, while in others owners are trying to decide what to do. The big question is, “Have we seen the last of MVP Albert Pujols, or is there reason to expect a bounce back next season?”
After the Ryan Braun suspension was announced, the most common question I got from ottoneu players was what to do with their $45, $50 or even $60 shares in Braun. No value left this year, but what will he bring to the table next year.
Eno Sarris looked at Braun’s value yesterday, so I’m not going to go down that path. Instead, we are going to take a look at the chain reaction that occurred when Braun was cut in the original ottoneu league, as a bit of a warning of what you should expect should he get cut in your league.
It is not necessarily the best time to be a Phillies fan, what with the no shot at the playoffs and Ryan Howard getting paid forever and whatnot. But there is some help on the horizon, at least if you ask ottoneu players.
Two of the top three most auctioned players right now are in the Philly system, with an Astro in between them. We’ll take a look at Cuban pitching prospect Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Double-A 3B Maikel Franco and presumptive Astro closer Jose Cisnero.
Fantasy owners across the internet were likely cursing at their monitors as they cut loose Ryan Braun this afternoon. Owners in re-draft leagues made the cut already; those in keeper leagues may have a tougher choice on their hands.
But Braun is an interesting case in ottoneu leagues and potentially becomes and intriguing trade target for owners selling this year and building towards 2014.
As those of you who follow me on Twitter may have seen, I spend some time digging into the ottoneu data the last week or so, looking at which players are on the most winning teams. Basically, I was figuring out what percentage of teams a player was on were in each standings spot. This gave me all sorts of wonderful insights, including that 25% of Dioner Navarro owners are in 4th place or that Jake Marisnick is equally likely to be in 12th place as 3rd place.
But it also provided an interesting look into what players (and what kinds of players) are driving success.
A couple months ago, I shared a piece that explained how I pro-rate standings in ottoneu leagues to figure out where I ACTUALLY stand and what I should be doing moving forward. Now that we are at the half-way mark, I wanted to revisit that piece, make a couple adjustments to my process, and update my plans.
If you haven’t read that piece, you can start with that and take a look at how I look at all stats on a per-game and per inning basis in roto leagues and the score I use in points leagues to see a more realistic look at what each team is doing.
The combination of 40-man rosters and per-position game limits creates an interesting conundrum for owners on days with limited games played. Even when there are a more typical 12 games on a Monday or Thursday, rather than the four that were played last night, filling out a lineup can be difficult.
In most leagues, you either have a rather limited bench, leaving you with few choices to fill in for starters on off days, or you have no limits on games played (in head-to-head leagues, for example) allowing you to play anyone you can. But ottoneu forces you to think – do I really want to play my 8th OF and my 5th MI today? Just because they are on my roster, does that make them a good play?
Prior to the start of the season, I pursued a handful of players who I thought were due for big seasons. Some of these players – Brandon Moss, Julio Teheran, Chris Tillman among them – served me quite well. But some others – Jason Heyward, Danny Espinosa, Shane Victorino are all in this group – have had less success.
Three of these players, however, have suffered so badly that their teams sent them back for more seasoning in the minors. I expected Ike Davis, Dustin Ackley and Lonnie Chisenhall to play key roles on teams for me, and all have been major disappointments. But the season isn’t even half over, and in ottoneu we are always looking towards the future, so is there value to be had here?
As we near the mid-point of the season, I find myself happily in the mix in all of my ottoneu leagues, including a surprising 4th (I think surprising) in the FanGraphs Experts League. I’m in the top half of the league in six categories (R, SB, W, S, ERA, WHIP) and close in another (RBI), but I am absolutely bottoming out in K, HR, and AVG (10th in each).
My path to improvement is pretty clear – add pop, average, or strike outs. And I have some decent trade options, as well, as I am running away with SB (first place with 88, second has 61), and have a deep enough OF to sustain a loss there.