Ottoneu 101:

Ottoneu 101: The Cap(ps) Space Dilema

Ottoneu 101: Ready, Fire, Aim

Ottoneu 101: How Loans Work in Ottoneu

Over the course of 2014, I became infatuated with two Boston prospects, Manny Margot and Rafael Devers. Margot was in A ball and Devers in Rookie ball at the time, and I wanted to add them to my Ottoneu team. However, I was faced with a dilemma. Was owning Margot or Devers for $1-$2 in 2014 worth the roster spot and cap space I would commit to these players over the next 3-5 seasons? I knew Devers/Margot existed and were talented (probably before my league-mates) but felt the rules were constructed in such a way that it made committing roster spots to Rookie and A ball prospects a poor use of resources. Per Ottoneu rules:

b. Owners shall be permitted to retain any of their players at a salary which is increased based on their previous year salary.  Rules for salary increases are as follows: 

i. Players who have no major league service time (as defined by being placed on an active MLB roster at some point in the past 2 full seasons) will have their salary increase by $1.

So in the case of owning Devers for $1 in 2014, I would likely be looking at a $4 – $8 player by the time he debuts (depending on arbitration) along with committing a roster spot to him for 3-5 seasons. I personally don’t know if that’s a worthwhile trade off, but It’s these types of observations that led me to adding one of my favorite “unofficial” wrinkles to Ottoneu – the 5MILB system. With the help of Trey Baughn, we developed this system to allow prospects outside the scope of the top 50-100 (or in the low levels of the minors) to be owned off roster – where keeping a player for 3-5 seasons can put a real tax on your team. Here are the rules we came up with:

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Whit Merrifield, Brandon Nimmo, Zach Davies, Steven Moya… These are 4 baseball players. Three are outfielders. One is a pitcher. All are from the United States (or a US territory in Moya’s case). I’m sure there are other common facts about these players (most of us are pretty similar). However, perhaps the most interesting commonality between these 4 players is that all have seen their Ottoneu ownership increase by 10% over the past week. Let’s look at which of these players I would actually consider owning.

Owned in nearly 50% of Ottoneu leagues, Merrifield has burst on to the scene over the past month, posting 5.47 P/G since early May with 2B and OF eligibility. However, his rest of season numbers look far less optimistic. The depth charts here have him posting 3.83 P/G and a .291 wOBA over the rest of the season. This level of production is very near replacement level at 2B. Considering how shallow MI can be, I can see the case for rostering Merrifield, however I do not see much in his skillset to inspire confidence. He appears to be a product of a .389 babip, which has provided some nice production. However, without good plate discipline or power, his production will likely subpar in FGpts leagues. He’s a replacement level player at present. If you need to fill middle infield games he could be worth a roster spot, but I wouldn’t be bidding more than $1-$3 for him in leagues without SBs. While his FGpt outlook isn’t great, Merrifield has exhibited good speed in the minors (32 SBs in AAA last year) and could provide some solid value in 5×5 leagues where owners are in need of steals.

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I have posted two articles earlier this season on the hitters with the largest changes to their Depth Charts rest of season projections versus the preseason, and today I’m going to take a look at the pitchers.

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The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

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As mentioned in the past, Ottoneu is a deep but enjoyable game of fantasy baseball economics perfectly suited for the FanGraphs reader.  However, the learning curve in year one can be steep, so consider this point a primer on how “loans” work in Ottoneu leagues.

All Ottoneu teams, regardless of the format (5×5, 4×4, FGPTS, SABR) are bound by both a 40 player roster cap and a $400 salary cap applied between the annual league player auction and the end of the MLB regular season (these caps do not apply in the off-season).  Exceeding either of these caps will result in a “frozen” roster thereby preventing the owner from bidding on players, making trades, or even setting lineups until the issue is resolved, per Rule 1b.  In other words, your only option when faced with an illegal (“over-cap”) roster is to cut players until you get to 40 or fewer players or $400 or less in total salary.  For new Ottoneu players, keep in mind you should never willingly exceed these limits (per Rule 1c), and each of your 40 roster spots inherently costs $1 each, so you really only have $360 in “free” roster salary to play with (see Rule 1bi) at any given time (including during the annual auction).

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Niv, creator and grand poobah of all things ottoneu, was gracious enough to share with me some data regarding the most added ottoneu players over the last 30 days(across all league types). I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the hot pickups in ottoneu, so here we go!

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Playing Ottoneu typically requires an adjustment. Many fantasy leagues have some form of keeper/dynasty component, but having a player’s “keepability” be tied directly to his salary can add a wrinkle many owners are not familiar with. Sometimes this can be daunting. How do you value players when salaries come into play? Where is the line between talent and salary and how much weight do both of these factors hold? What do you do with a highly paid player who is under performing? How do I account for the salary cap? What if I have no financial flexibility? How am I supposed to make free-agent pickups or gain cap space?

These are several questions that spawn out of the specific salary structure within Ottoneu. While I certainly can’t answer all these questions at once, I want to take some time to focus on the last one. Specifically, how Ottoneu is different than other fantasy formats for free-agent pickups and how you can use this format to help gain an advantage on your league-mates?

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Three weeks ago, fellow rotographs contributor Trey Baughn looked at some ways to approach discussing trades. At the time, your league may not have entered the selling/buying stage of the season, but as we move into June, it is likely that some teams who labeled themselves “competitors” for 2016 have begun to change their tune. So much can change in three weeks – with the line between a competitive and non-competitive team being more clearly established. Several teams in your league(s) have probably made the move to sell (or buy) already. As a fellow owner of a competitive team, it can be very frustrating to watch your rivals scoop up top talent while you’re left sitting on your hands. In these circumstances, you can be best served to take some initiative, act quickly, and not second guess yourself.

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Trey discuss some players who have had notable seasons so far, for good and bad reasons! On the positive side, players like Jonathan Villar, Aledmys Diaz, Derek Dietrich, and Rich Hill have all provided a big bang for very few bucks, but some more expensive players like Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Matt Harvey have not quite lived up to their auction salaries at this point in the season. Plus, we talk about Evan Gattis and how his value has changed now that he has added catcher eligibility; and Clayton Kershaw, whose average salary of $57.34 has, incredibly, represented a discount on his otherworldly production in 2016.

As a reminder, OttoGraphs is now available on iTunes! Subscribe using this link or the one below, and if you like what you hear, we’d happily accept ratings or reviews to help us reach new listeners, and potentially recruit some new ottoneu players!

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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With another month of the baseball season gone, it’s time once again to present the ottoneu power rankings. Much of the history and methodology of these rankings was explained with last month’s post, so be sure to read that if you haven’t already.

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