Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

It’s officially ottoneu auction season, and with it comes the auction preparation process. I’m in more ottoneu leagues than I can count on two hands, so I’ve developed a sort of system to help me get ready for my auctions. Part of that system is the ottoneu surplus calculator to get a league wide view of teams and keepers, another part is manually creating dollar values using projections, but the final piece of that system is collecting actual auction results to get a sense of how the market of ottoneu owners is valuing players. I’d rather not spend $12 on a player I think is worth $15 if I know I can get a similar player for $10, so having average auction price data is akin to using draft ADP to decide when to wait on (or reach for) a certain player. Let’s take a look at the ten best hitter “bargains” and “reaches”.

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Two weeks ago we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Joe Douglas, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B, 2B/SS

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Earlier this month, we took at a look at starting pitcher replacement levels for 2017. Today, we will continue this process for relief pitchers using the same methodology. Please refer back to that post as a primer on how I put my replacement levels together, though I’ll recap some of the methodology here.

2017 Replacement Levels: SP

There are two ways that replacement levels can be defined. This is either as a specific point per game (P/G) or point per inning total (P/IP) or as the nth player ranked at a position. For example, I could say, replacement level for RP is about 6.67 P/IP, or I could say that replacement level for RP is about the 70th RP.

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Last Friday we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Justin Vibber, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B

Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value Read the rest of this entry »

As much fun as it is to take over an existing team and rebuild it, there’s no better fantasy baseball experience than a first-year ottoneu auction. Spending seven or so hours assembling a 40 man roster takes preparation, focus, and flexibility, but it’s also an exhilarating experience filled with triumph and surprises. I just wrapped up a two night first-year auction earlier this week (my first auction of the season!), and I wanted to review some of the average auction prices based on that league and two other first year leagues that have already drafted (ottoneu FGPts format).

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Today we are kicking off our series on ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Joe Douglas, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

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The subject of calculating replacement levels is a touchy one in ottoneu. Most people who play probably have some opinion on how this process should occur and, if you partake in any of the various ottoneu communities, you have probably witnessed some of the debates from both sides.

I tend to enjoy the process of determining replacement levels and, as I have gone through this process in the past, I wanted to take some time to divulge on my process as we near 2017 draft season. Before we do, we need to acknowledge some methodology or this will quickly turn into a debate of semantics. There are two ways that replacement levels can be defined. This is either as a specific point per game (P/G) or point per inning total (P/IP) or as the nth player ranked at a position. For example, I could say, replacement level for SP is about 4.00 P/IP, or I could say that replacement level for SP is about the 90th SP.

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In the grand scheme of things, FanGraphs is closer to a blog than a newspaper. We usually try to make our content look more like articles than posts. We even have a style guide that directs us not to speak in the first person (pretty sure nobody listens to that rule). Today, you’re reading a blog post. I hope that’s ok with you. If not, get over yourself.

This is the story of last Tuesday, January 31…

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The Ottoneu cut deadline marks the end of the 2016 season. It was a successful year with each of my three squads taking on very different roles. There was one champion, one rebuild against a powerhouse team, and one new league designed with incentives to keep everyone invested over the long hall. However, now that February 1 is here (the Otto-Neu Year), I want to take some time to run through some resolutions that I have for the upcoming season. Hopefully they will be helpful to any newcomers to the format, or grizzly old vets in entering year 5+.

I resolve to meet my game caps

This past year, I met my game caps in 2 of my 3 leagues. For 2017, my goal is to meet each of my game caps in each Ottoneu league I play. Even if I can’t make the cap, I always tend to be close, but that isn’t the case for all owners. If you peruse through Ottoneu points leagues, you will find owners in each league to do not make the cap, often by large margins. Maybe meeting game caps is never something you have had an issue with, but for me, it can be a more daunting process than it originally appears. For reference, the format features the following starting lineup: Read the rest of this entry »