Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a bunch of teams who have two off days next week and will only play five games as a result: the A’s, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees. Since they won’t necessarily need a fifth starter, keep an eye on the probable pitchers listed on Sunday in case any of those teams decide to go with a four-man rotation and skip someone’s regular turn in the rotation.
• The Tigers and Giants would have played only five games next week but they had a rainout rescheduled for Monday. That means San Francisco will play in Washington this weekend, in Detroit on Monday, and then fly home to start a series against the A’s on Tuesday.
• The Twins easy schedule post-All-Star break continues next week with a pair of matchups against the Mariners (again) and the Royals. Every one of their starters have been pretty close to a must start all season long and you can just set them and forget them next week too.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox get a pretty tough slate of games next week. Toronto gets the double Los Angeles experience with one series on the road (at the Dodgers) and one at home (versus the Angels). The Cubs and Guardians may not seem like tough opponents on paper, but both teams have been hitting particularly well recently and both series will be played in the home run friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Justin Verlander
• Luis Castillo
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Kenta Maeda
• Aaron Civale

In yesterday’s Hot Right Now, I noted that Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford are the two players with the most live auctions in Ottoneu leagues. I also gave only high-level thoughts on the two of them and then promised I would be back with more today. Today we will look more broadly at recent draftees and whether or not they have value in Ottoneu.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

The Brewers have struggled to find someone to consistently set up Devin Williams in their bullpen hierarchy. Peter Strzelecki held that role for the first two months of the season but he was demoted to Triple-A after a rough patch in June. Abner Uribe has gotten plenty of attention as a possible high-leverage option based on his solid minor league track record but fantasy owners are currently overlooking the guy who is actually getting work in the eighth inning: Joel Payamps. Acquired alongside William Contreras in the big Sean Murphy trade this offseason, the Brewers have had Payamps really lean into his slider as a member of their organization and the results have followed. He’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced this season and has collected a hold in 15 of his last 22 appearances while compiling a 1.21 ERA and 2.79 FIP during that stretch. Payamps isn’t the only reliever listed above; Elvis Peguero has been seeing a ton of high-leverage work recently as well. He’s earned a hold in eight of his last ten appearances, though his strikeout rate isn’t as strong as his bullpen-mate.

Lucas Sims and Grant Anderson were featured the last time I wrote about under-rostered relievers and their outlook hasn’t really changed all that much. The former has gotten his command issues under control and has continued to pitch in high-leverage situations in Cincinnati. The Rangers bullpen has been shaken up a bit by the addition of Aroldis Chapman and the injury to Josh Sborz. Anderson is currently listed as a middle reliever by Roster Resource but he earned a hold in his last outing. Then again, his last appearance prior to the All-Star break lasted four innings in mop up duty.

I don’t recommend chasing after high-leverage opportunities on teams like the A’s or the Royals since they’re so few and far between. If you did want to, Trevor May is the ninth inning guy in Oakland and readily available in most Ottoneu leagues. You may want to keep an eye on Shintaro Fujinami however. After being relegated to the bullpen after a month in the rotation, he’s started to figure things out recently. Over his last ten appearances, he’s run a 3.00 ERA backed by a 2.45 FIP and he hasn’t allowed a single walk while striking out 13. He hasn’t collected a hold or a walk in that time, but that’s more to do with his team context than his abilities.

High-leverage work in the White Sox bullpen has been a revolving door due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Gregory Santos might be the current beneficiary of all that churn; he’s collected three holds and a save across his last seven outings. His biggest issue as a prospect in San Francisco’s farm system was a lack of command. He’s managed to figure out that aspect of his profile — he’s walked just 5.0% of the batters he’s faced this year — while continuing to strike out a decent number of batters. The key has been swapping in a sinker for his four-seamer while continuing to rely on his fantastic slider as his primary pitch.

Speaking of teams who are struggling to figure out their bullpen, the Cardinals have now turned to Chris Stratton in high-leverage situations recently. At this point in his career, Stratton is a fairly well known quantity; his high-spin fastball and curveball combo give him a pretty solid foundation. Still, he doesn’t have the same kind of high ceiling as some of the other arms on this list. Chase the opportunity in St. Louis if you want, but be ready to cut him loose if he falls out of the high-leverage picture.

The Rays have surprisingly had one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, specifically struggling to find guys to bridge from their starters to Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks in the eighth and ninth innings. Amazingly enough, it might be their Rule-5 pick, Kevin Kelly, who is rising up the hierarchy recently. He’s a sidearming righty with a heavy sinker and a sweeping slider. His strikeout rate isn’t much to look at but his funky delivery and diving pitch movement make it nearly impossible for batters to elevate off him with authority. He hasn’t allowed a run since May 12 and he earned an easy hold in his first appearance after the All-Star break.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Yasmani Grandal, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.06%

Grandal has just never gotten back to the 2021 season that made him so valuable to roster. In 2021, he walked 23.2% of the time while striking out only 21.9% of the time. He hit 20+ home runs in 5 consecutive seasons if you don’t count the 2020 season, hitting 23 in 2o21. Then in 2022, he hit only five home runs and right now, he has six. It might appear that Grandal’s power has been rebounding some, but it’s still a long way away from his 2021 and even 2019 marks and his current hard-hit rate of 33.5% is a career low. The 34-year-old catcher is at 3.33 points per game in Ottoneu points leagues and is being cut because of it.

Luis Matos, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Matos is 21 years old, has only 86 MLB plate appearances, and has a .263 batting average. He is the Giants’ 2023 number-one prospect. But, he’s only slugging .342, and perhaps people were expecting him to immediately be like he was (.398/.435/.685) in 116 AAA plate appearances before being called up to the bigs? Here’s a snippet from his prospect write-up by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin:

He’s still chase-prone, but his high-end exit velos are up compared to 2022, and the beautiful, 180-degree finish Matos’ swing would show at peak has returned with greater frequency. Wielding one of the prettier righty swings in baseball, Matos is moving the barrel all over the zone and turning on up-and-in pitches with power again.

If he was dropped in your league, he should probably be picked up. Small of a sample as it is, he is striking out 12.1% of the time which is the third lowest among Rookies with at least 50 plate appearances in 2023 behind Alec Burleson at 10.7% and Masataka Yoshida at 10.9%. Matos has a bright future and should be held onto in Ottoneu leagues for the long run.

Nick Pratto, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Pratto’s player page Prospect TLDR reads, “A swing and approach change unlocked huge in-game power for Pratto, who also has a good idea of the zone…”, but his power has been disappointing in 2023. He is only slugging .389 (below the .411 MLB average) with six home runs. Pratto’s biggest knock so far is his 37.5% strikeout rate but even in AAA during 374 2022 at-bats, Pratto struck out 30.5% of the time. He hits the ball hard 45.3% of the time according to Statcast and that is greater than the 39.5% league average mark. His 9.5% Barrel% is also above the league average but only by a hair. No, the issue here seems to be that Pratto is pressing, trying to get back to the hot streak he went on in early June. Match that with the fact that he’s been benched for Matt Duffy as written by Jeff Zimmerman in a recent lineup analysis, and Pratto may just need to re-focus his swing approach.

If it were me, I wouldn’t be dropping a 24-year-old first-round pick like Pratto in any Ottoneu format. I would remain patient.

DL Hall, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –5.13%

A back injury over the winter has kept Hall down and it was recently reported that he has “…been at the Orioles’ spring training facility in Florida for the past four weeks”. Prior to that, he made 11 starts at AAA posting a 4.57 ERA with an 11.32 K/9, but a 5.66 BB/9. That’s Hall’s biggest challenge; control. His stuff is unreal but it comes with very shaky command. In his one major league relief appearance in 2023, he struck out seven in three innings, but he walked one and gave up a home run getting tagged with two earned runs. It is also apparent that Hall is destined for a relief role if and when he gets healthy this summer. His velocity needs to get back up to his 2022 mark (96.4 MPH vFA) and he needs to dial in his control issues if he wants to get back to the bigs. The O’s could certainly use another reliever who can appear between the starters and the All-Star back end of the bullpen.

Anthony Desclafani, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 5.13%

Desclafani is working his way back from a shoulder injury and perhaps some fantasy managers saw his rehab appearance stats and decided they were out. The 33-year-old righty threw four innings at the rookie-level Arizona Complex League and gave up a home run. He did record four strikeouts and did not give up a walk. He last appeared for the Giants on July 1st so it hasn’t been a long IL stint and he is lined up to start on Tuesday, July 18th. His 2023 ERA (4.44) is slightly different from his xERA (4.92), but he is walking fewer batters than his projections expected and he’s giving up fewer home runs than expected too. He’s begun using his slider and changeup more often while dropping his fastball and curveball usage and that’s good because the slider/changeup are his best pitches. I would keep an eye on Desclafani over his next few starts, perhaps benching him for his first start back from IL to see how he’s looking. He’s lined up to face the Reds.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Tim Anderson,  0.65 P/G:

TA hit over .300 in his last four seasons (2019-2022) but he currently sits at .227. His power has been sapped:

Some might speculate TA is playing through injury, some might speculate he is in an early stage skills decline at age 30. But, he is still walking better than his career average, striking out less than his career average, and swinging outside of the zone less than his career average. What he isn’t doing is swinging in the zone as often as he usually does and he is getting punished by sliders this season with a Pitch Info pVal of -13.5 on the pitch. He had real difficulty with sliders earlier in his career and he is facing them again. But, that doesn’t isolate his troubles. TA does not have a positive pVal on any one individual pitch this season. Whatever the reason for this decline is, many are hoping it will turn around soon.

Daulton Varsho,  1.00 P/G:

Varsho has hit a wOBA season low, so he has nowhere to go but up:

Varsho’s power metrics are missing the projected marks systems expected before the season began, particularly his slugging (.365) and ISO (.150). He does have 11 stolen bases on the year and that is nothing to complain about. He is still hitting the ball hard and even put up his best MaxEV mark of 112.5 MPH this season. All of his Statcast expected marks are greater than his actuals:

AVG: .215 xAVG: .232

SLG: .365 xSLG: .391

wOBA: .282 xwOBA: .303

He’ll need to improve his timing and ability to hit the fastball as it has given him some trouble this season (-9.3 PitchInfo pVal) and he’s only hitting .205 against righties (.259 against lefties). RosterResource lists him as a left-handed hitter in a projected platoon vs RHP.

Martín Pérez,  0.84 P/IP:

Pérez was skipped in his rotation start after an awful outing against the Astros where he threw 1.1 innings, gave up two walks, three home runs, and was tagged with six earned runs. He did not bounce back in his next start, only going five innings against the Guardians, walking four, giving up a home run, and getting tagged with another three earned runs.  Between last season and this season, Pérez’s per nine ratios are all trending in the wrong direction:

He’s been able to somewhat stabilize the high BB/9 that started his 2023 season, but he’s still walking too many when it’s combined with a high home run rate.

Bobby Miller,  2.82 P/IP:

Miller had an incredible start to the season where he earned only two runs (no home runs) in his first four starting appearances (23 IP) but then hitters adjusted in his next four starts (21 IP) and he gave up 20 earned runs on four home runs. In his latest outing, he recovered nicely and put up five strikeouts, no home runs, and only one earned run in 4.2 innings, but left the game with an injury:

#Dodgers Bobby Miller said he felt a little discomfort on his right knee in the fourth inning, but is “all good.” He wanted to stay in the game in the 5th and get out of the jam, but added he understood the decision.

— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) July 17, 2023

Miller is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher with insanely good stuff and should be expected to go through these types of highs and lows in his rookie season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• With the All-Star break taking up the first half of this week, head-to-head matchups in most leagues will span July 14–23. In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues with a Games Started cap, players will need to wisely plan their matchups since the number of starts they have to cover is the same, only with three extra days in the matchup window.
• There are just a few teams who will start off the second half of the season with a string of easier matchups. Both the Twins and the Mariners are probably your best bet to set it and forget it with their entire rotations. Seattle has ten games at home following their All-Star hosting duties and two of their three opponents are particularly weak.
• On the other hand, there are a bunch of teams with a stretch of tough opponents following the midseason break. The Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds all have particularly challenging matchups over the next ten days which makes it a bit of a risk to rely on any of their pitchers. Not only do Cincinnati’s opponents hit well, they’re also playing all three series at home in the most home run friendly ballpark in the majors.
• Keep an eye on how teams line up the back half of their starting rotations after this weekend. Most teams haven’t announced starters for games early next week, and the order they lineup their fourth and fifth starters could have an effect on their matchups next weekend.

Building for the future in Ottoneu leagues is both exciting and disheartening at the same time. On one hand, you’ve admitted defeat, and you’ve decided that there is no possible way you will climb the ranks to even a respectable, third-place, finish. On the other hand, you get to shed salary, auction young exciting players, and reimagine what your team could be in a few years. So, where do you start? The most logical way is to find a ranking list of prospects and start searching on your Ottoneu players page for the top players to see if they’re available. You’ll probably find that they are not, that the best prospects have been gobbled up by your league mates. So, how do you find good, available prospects in your league without clicking and searching forever? Follow these easy steps to simplify your process.

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Today, given we are in the midst of the All Star Break and not a ton has happened since last week’s Hot Right Now, you are getting an abbreviated version focused on the players up for auction in the most leagues right now.

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