Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways.
• The Orioles, Royals, and Tigers all have easier matchups to close out the season. Those teams don’t normally have a ton of “must start” pitchers but the schedule aligns perfectly to give them some nice and easy opponents next week.
• The Cubs and Mariners are both fighting for a playoff spot in their respective Wild Card races and they’ll be going up against some tough offenses. You’ve got to start the three aces on Seattle’s pitching staff but I’d be weary of calling on their two young rookies. It’s even tougher for Chicago since they’ll spend all of next week on the road against two very good teams. Justin Steele is fighting for the NL Cy Young and he even has a two-start week next week, but I think I’d only be comfortable starting him against the Brewers.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Blake Snell
• Kevin Gausman
• Logan Webb
• Luis Castillo
• Zac Gallen
• Aaron Nola
• Justin Verlander
• George Kirby
• Michael King
• Kyle Bradish
• Reese Olson

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The clock is ticking down on the regular season which means it’s crunch time for fantasy baseball players. It’s probably too late to affect the outcome of any Ottoneu head-to-head leagues at this point — your roster is what it is during championship week — but points leagues still have two weeks to continue to accumulate points and try and hit their positional and innings caps. Below, I’ve compiled four starters who look like they have easier matchups over these final weeks of the season and who are rostered in less than 60% of Ottoneu leagues. If you’re desperate for innings to reach your cap, these guys might be able to help.

Dean Kremer shows up in this column again! He had one five-run clunker a week ago but his FIP since the All-Star break has been a tidy 4.27, a full run higher than his ERA. He has continued to keep the ball in the yard while maintaining his acceptable strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s not flashy, but he feels like a safe option over these final two weeks of the season. His schedule lines up to face the Guardians on the road and the Red Sox at home; the first game is a slam dunk and the second looks safe too since Boston’s offense is so horrendous on the road.

Since moving to the starting rotation full-time in mid-August, Zach Thompson has put up a 4.15 ERA backed by a 3.77 FIP in seven starts and another bulk relief appearance. His last start against the Phillies was the first time he had allowed more than three runs in an appearance during this stretch. His strikeout-minus-walk ratio is a solid 18.2% and he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball too much. If you can get him on your roster ahead of his next start on Wednesday, he’d be lined up to make three starts for your fantasy team, twice against the punchless Brewers and once against the Reds at home.

Sawyer Gipson-Long has impressed over his first two starts in the majors, allowing just three runs in 10 innings while striking out 16. His minor league strikeout rates took a big step forward this year and that success has followed him to the big leagues. It’s a super small sample size, but two of his pitches are running whiff rates over 50% and his sinker is earning a whiff on 35% of the swings against it. Those look like legit weapons and Stuff+ is impressed with the underlying physical characteristics of his pitch arsenal. He has starts in Oakland and against the Guardians at home to close out the season and both of those look pretty juicy. Ride the hot hand while you can and hope that he can continue his early success.

If you’re feeling really risky, Pedro Avila could be an option to turn to. Since joining the rotation in mid-August, he’s put up a 5.95 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in four starts and one bulk relief outing. Most of that damage came in a single game against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings; take that outing away and his ERA drops to 3.71. His next two outings should be against the Cardinals at home and then the White Sox on the road. Neither is a perfect matchup, so I’d recommend turning to him only if you’re completely desperate for innings to hit your cap.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Parker Meadows, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 17.63%

The 23-year-old Tigers outfielder has gone cold after a hot start. In his first 10 games, he went 10 for 34 (.294) with a home run and a stolen base. In his last 10 games, he has gone two for 26 (.077) with zero home runs, but three stolen bases. This is what we should expect from a young hitter who entered the MLB with a career (MiLB) K% in the mid-to-high 20s. I don’t think it’s a reason to drop Meadows in keeper leagues like Ottoneu unless you got all excited and paid too much for him during the hot streak.

Geraldo Perdomo, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.33%

Perdomo is in a slump. He hasn’t had a hit in his last 22 at-bats and only has four walks in that time. He’s been a streaky hitter all season long, but he’s currently in his worst 15-game wOBA dip this season:

Perdomo’s plate discipline statistics are very interesting. He strikes out only 17.1% of the time, makes great in-zone contact, swings outside of the zone less often than average, and has a BABIP near .300. In September, however, his BABIP is a low .111 and his September K% (22.9%) is the highest it’s been month-by-month this season. He has dropped down into the nine spot in the batting order and his playing time is in jeopardy as Jordan Lawlar will start to get more and more time at the SS position.

Jose Siri, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.41%

Sadly it appears that Siri’s 2023 fantasy campaign is over, though he may be able to return from a fractured hand injury for the playoffs. His 25 2023 home runs outperformed every projection system though his 12 stolen bases underperformed every projection system. In addition, the average and on-base percentage marks he posted in 2023 were in line with most projections, but his slugging percentage outperformed. Clearly, Siri developed some unexpected pop in 2023. He finished the regular season with a fantasy-relevant, but not award-winning, slash line of .222/.267/.494.

Lance Lynn, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –6.73%

In his last four starts, Lynn has given up 20 earned runs and nine home runs. His K/9 ratio in those starts was a dismal 2.45 and his BB/9 sat at 3.27. That’s bad. It has been a really wild season for Lynn as his command and strikeout statistics have been all over the place:

Many managers are likely dumping Lynn as they just can’t take the earned runs, especially the home runs in points leagues. However, Lynn is still accumulating wins. Since joining the Dodgers, Lynn has won five games. While his Dodger ERA stands at 4.60, his White Sox ERA stands at 6.47. He will likely get another two, maybe three, starts. One against the Tigers in LA and likely two against the Giants. The velocity on all three of his fastballs was down significantly on August 31, but in his two starts since that date, all three have risen back up to around his average. Certainly, as many have pointed out, his pitch mix has changed since being traded to the Dodgers:

The Tigers have the 28th worst wOBA in the MLB (28th against righties too) and the Giants rank 21st (jump to 20th against righties). Lynn has not been what he was projected to be before the season began in the case of WHIP and ERA, but his strikeout totals, IP, and win predictions were right on the mark:

Michael Lorenzen, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.08%

Lorenzen has made five starts since his August 9th no-hitter. In that time he has a 7.96 ERA and has coughed up eight home runs. His K/9 of 4.85 in his last five starts is lower than his season average of 6.48 and his recent BB/9 of 3.81 is high compared to a 2.60 season average. His fastball velocities look stable, but his off-speed pitches have jumped in velocity in recent games. Perhaps the Phillies are tinkering with his mix and approach some, but even more problematic is the fact that the Phillies are planning to utilize Lorenzen in a relief role in their upcoming matchup with Atlanta. I’m not sure what that means for the future and if it’s a good idea to tell a team like Atlanta their plans way ahead of time, but it’s probably clear that Lorenzen won’t be much fantasy help for the rest of the season.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Adam Duvall,  -2.00 P/G:

Duval is hitting .151 in his last 14 games, but he has hit three home runs and walked four times. His slugging and wOBA are dipping below average currently and time is ticking on the 2023 season.

Whit Merrifield,  -0.66 P/G:

In his last 14 games, Merrifield is batting .204 with 10 strikeouts. He has stolen two bags in that time but hasn’t hit a home run. His K% is on the rise and his wOBA is on the decline:

MacKenzie Gore,  -5.25 P/IP:

Gore was placed on the IL with blisters a little over a week ago as of this writing. He may make one last start, but that is not a guarantee as the Nationals have no reason to tack on more workload to the 24-year-old’s season. Gore threw a career-high 136.1 IP this season, increased his major-league K/9, decreased his major-league BB/9, and posted seven wins with a 4.42 ERA. While there’s no reason to hold on for this season, Gore certainly has long-term potential and shouldn’t be dropped if he’s rostered for a reasonable price.

Nathan Eovaldi,  -2.57 P/IP:

Since his return from injury, Eovaldi has not looked good. He has posted a 7.71 ERA and a 7.71 BB/9. He’s also given up three home runs. While his K/9 in that time (9.0) is better than his season 8.13, he’s given up too many walks and home runs, a terrible combination. As the Texas Rangers stagger at the end of the season, Eovaldi needs to rebound in his next start, likely on Tuesday against the Red Sox.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• In standard head-to-head Ottoneu leagues, next week is the championship matchup. Double- and triple-check your probable pitchers and make a plan for the week ahead so you know your backup plans in case something goes sideways.
• It’s a really unfortunate week to roster any Phillies starters; they head to Atlanta for three games and then return home to face the still dangerous Mets for four. Zack Wheeler has a double-game week which would normally be a boon, but it’s going to force fantasy players into some tough decisions during the biggest week of their season.
• The Cubs get a pair of easy matchups next week, hosting the Pirates and Rockies for three games each. That makes nearly their entire rotation an easy pick to start with Jameson Taillon the only one I’d have any reservations about.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Freddy Peralta
• Jordan Montgomery
• Justin Verlander
• Ryan Pepiot
• Lance Lynn
• Javier Assad

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Not everyone can be in the middle of a playoff race as the regular season winds down. Indeed, if you’re in a head-to-head league, three-quarters of the teams are now just watching the final four teams battle for a championship. If you’re just playing out the string in an Ottoneu league, you’ve still got an opportunity to trawl the available free agents for potential keepers for next season.

The obvious place to start would be looking for injured players who are out for the season but are on a timetable to return healthy next year. And because of the roster rules in Ottoneu, you can grab players on the 60-day IL and add them to your roster without using up a valuable roster spot. Note: some leagues have rules about getting your roster down to a legal 40 players during the offseason to prevent players from hoarding injured players. But even if you need to cut from the fringe of your roster to keep those injured players, some can be worth it.

The trick to stashing injured players is finding the right ones at the right price. It wouldn’t be a wise use of resources to roster a player at his full value, especially considering the risk present with some of these guys. The goal is to roster one of these guys below their market value so that they’re not a burden on your salary cap after the offseason salary increase and any potential arbitration raises. Depending on your league context and the status of your roster, I could see the argument for keeping one of these stashes at a higher price. Heading into the offseason with them on your roster gives you the option to keep them, trade them, or just cut them at the cut deadline.

What I wouldn’t recommend would be to try and keep pitchers who are slated to miss all of next season. That means guys like Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan, or Liam Hendriks. The primary reason is that they’ll get hit with two rounds of salary increases before they’re contributing to your team again, so they need to be rostered at a salary well below market value to come close to being worth it. That could end up being a hefty amount of salary tied up in a pitcher with plenty of risk involved.

To help you identify where the line is between a worthwhile and a worthless stash, I’ve compiled a list of 22 potential stashes — 11 batters and 11 pitchers — with a range of projections next season. I’ve used the ZiPS 3 Year Projections to pull projected stats for 2024 and then used the Auction Calculator to build rough market values for those projected stats. Note: those long-term ZiPS projections haven’t been updated since the start of the season and ZiPS doesn’t have an exact playing time projection anyway; that’s going to have an affect on the projected points and values.

The big problem you’re going to run into with some of these really valuable players is that they’re already rostered in nearly every league. If you’ve got Vinnie Pasquantino or Oneil Cruz on your roster, you’re probably planning on keeping them no matter their injury status. What this table does tell us is that to really justify keeping one of these guys, their projection has to be really rosy (~.340 wOBA) or they need to be rostered at a really low salary. I’ve got Taylor Ward ($3) and Jarren Duran ($8) and Brendan Donovan ($5) rostered on one of my rebuilding teams and I’m thinking the latter two are going to end up being cut in January.

Because these 2024 projections were made at the beginning of the season, they’re not taking into consideration whatever performance occurred in this year, even if it was injury-marred. That’s why Jose Miranda rates so highly above. I do think he’s an interesting target to try and stash since he had such a promising start to his big league career and it seems like his shoulder injury sank his performance this year. I’d still be wary about taking that projection at face value, but he’s young enough that he could still have a step forward in him if he’s healthy.

Injured pitchers are even trickier to try and stash. Not only are their injuries usually more serious, it can take longer for them to return to their previous levels of performance, if they get there at all. Based on these projected values, there are just a handful of guys worth stashing, but that’s more an artifact of the playing time projection affecting the point totals. Nick Lodolo, Shane Baz, and Max Meyer all represent young pitchers who have had a taste of the big leagues who have low projected point totals above. Their per inning rates are solid enough that they could still be productive members of your roster should everything break in their favor.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

JoJo Romero, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.01%

While a low LOB% helped push his ERA up to 3.68, Romero looked great during his 36.2 IP with St. Louis this year. Among pitchers with 30+ IP as a reliever, Romero had a top-15 ground ball rate, top-25 IFFB rate, and top-60 K% and BB%. None of that is elite, but it adds up to a really good reliever who established himself as a late-inning arm for the Cards. But with an injured knee that landed him on the IL for most of the rest of the season, he became a roster casualty for a lot of teams, including mine.

That said, I am impressed with what he has done and he is staying on my watchlists. If he comes back, I will try to pick him up again. If not, I might still grab him in the final days of the season – if I can add him now for $1-$2 and he looks likely to be the Cardinal closer in January, he is going to be an easy keep.

Julio Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 32.05%

We covered him last week and there isn’t much more to say. He is under 60% rostered and that should keep going down.

Andrew McCutchen, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 26.60%

Back home in Pittsburgh, Cutch was having a resurgent season, posting 5.24 P/G and making him a very useful OF bat for Ottoneu leagues. Now a partially torn Achilles tendon has ended his season and it is hard to get excited about keeping him, even given how he performed this year. He really wasn’t useful from 2020-2022 and now he has to overcome a pretty serious injury just weeks before he turns 37 years old. That will raise questions of retirement, though at 299 career homers and coming off a solid season, I expect he will sign another one-year deal with the Pirates. And I might check him out for a dollar at the end of auctions.

Luis Severino, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 19.23%

Severino at his best was so, so good, and now you just wonder if we will ever get to see that again. He turns 30 before the start of next season, and his 2023 is now over thanks to an oblique strain. To give you a sense of just how snake-bitten his career has been, Severino’s reaction to the injury included him saying, “I’m happy it’s not going to take a full year or two [to recover],” as reported by Peter Sblendorio of the NY Daily News. It’s not great when your reaction to a season-ending injury is, “well at least this time I didn’t lose NEXT season as well.” He’s an easy cut, given how poorly he was pitching before getting hurt. If you are drafting later in draft season and he has looked good in spring, I could see taking a flyer on him, but the risk is high and the reward is probably not what it once was.

James Paxton, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 18.59%

Last week I speculated that he might have just run out of gas and that Red Sox have now shut him down for the year due to right knee inflammation. He’s a bit like Severino, in that he isn’t a guy you can rely on enough to want to keep him, but I am much more interested in him come March, at least based on what we know right now. This doesn’t sound like a serious injury and so there is reason to believe he can be ready for the start of 2024. I again wouldn’t want to count on him for a full season, but could he go more like 100 innings next year? Maybe.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Brett Baty, -0.33 P/G:

I was a big Baty believer but this year has been ugly and it isn’t getting better. Baty was given a real shot to claim the 3B job early in the season and struggled – much like he did last year before being sent down in August. He was back on September 1, but the performance has only gotten worse. Baty appears to have a power hitter’s plate discipline – decent walks but a lot of strikeouts – but he isn’t punishing the ball enough to make that work. That’s what made things go for him in the minors, and until he finds some real pop, he won’t be playable in the bigs.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Braves have a double-header scheduled for Monday which could jumble up their rotation if they decide to call up a spot starter for one of those games. Kyle Wright is also on the mend and could be activated from the IL next week. Keep an eye on the listed probables because the Phillies and Marlins present matchups on opposite ends of the spectrum.
• It looks like the Blue Jays are the only team to have a couple of tough matchups next week when they host the Rangers and Red Sox. Every other team has a mix of matchups that don’t present any easy decisions.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Framber Valdez
• Brandon Woodruff
• Freddy Peralta
• Tyler Glasnow
• Sonny Gray
• Joe Ryan
• José Quintana
• Logan Gilbert
• Max Scherzer
• Dylan Cease

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »