The calendar has flipped to March and that means regular season baseball is just around the corner. There have been just over 100 completed auction drafts in the Ottoneu universe thus far with the vast majority of leagues drafting over the next few weeks ahead of the early March 18 start date to the regular season. These early drafts present us with a bunch of market data that can help us identify players being overvalued or undervalued based on their rankings and projections. I should note that this data is inclusive of both first-year leagues and existing leagues so price inflation will have some effect on the draft values we see in the data.

Below, you’ll find two tables listing players who have been drafted more than 25 times whose real world auction values are either well below or well above the value Chad or I ranked them at earlier this offseason. First, let’s tackle draft steals.

Just as players were beginning to report to spring training, the Pirates announced that one of their new acquisitions, Spencer Horwitz, had undergone wrist surgery to repair an offseason injury. He’ll likely miss the first few weeks of the season but should be back to full health by the end of April. It’s possible that injury is depressing the market for Horwitz but a $3 average draft cost indicates the market was pretty low on his services to begin with — missing roughly a month of the season shouldn’t have cratered his value this low. Should he return from this wrist injury healthy, the projections see him producing a .344 wOBA as the Pirates everyday first baseman — and his 2B eligibility in Ottoneu boosts his value even further. If I was building my rankings today, I’d probably have him down a tier alongside Chad, but you’re still getting him as a steal if you’re drafting him for $3 today.

I was surprised to see Corey Seager on this list of undervalued players, granted I had him ranked a tier higher than Chad and his market data shows that he’s being valued on par with where Chad ranked him. Seager is either the second or third ranked shortstop, though his lengthy injury history does present some risk. I would be completely happy to roster Seager under $50 and would be ecstatic if I could get him under $40.

First base as a position is in a really weird spot right now. After the first six or seven options, there’s a pretty significant drop off in production and the position sort of plateaus with a bunch of flawed players that seem pretty interchangeable. Both Nathaniel Lowe and Ryan Mountcastle sit in this morass of mediocre first basement which makes it really easy to deflate their draft value — if you miss out on one, there’s another similar option ready to roster.

Across his 11-year career, Jorge Soler finally finds himself in a favorable home ballpark for his brand of right-handed power. Angels Stadium has the best home run park factor among the five cities he’s called home, though I suppose Kauffman Stadium boosts overall offensive output slightly more than the ballpark in Anaheim. Blasting a ton of home runs is a surefire way to rack up a ton of points in Ottoneu leagues and Soler should be among the best in the AL at that one skill. I suppose some of the hesitation stems from his inconsistent track record, but I like his new environment and think he’s flying under the radar a bit.

David Festa has been one of my targets to add towards the end of the draft to round out my starting rotation. An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season. The only question is whether or not he’ll have a rotation spot locked up out of spring training, but even if he doesn’t, his talent will have him pitching in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

Here’s what I wrote about Trea Turner in my middle infield ranks article:

“Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.”

I’m still pretty hesitant to roster him for any kind of premium, but it’s clear that other Ottoneu players just don’t hold that same view. His average draft value is just four dollars cheaper than Seager but I’d much rather have the latter if I’m paying anywhere near $40 for a shortstop.

Reader, I will admit that I paid $31 for Roki Sasaki in the FanGraphs Staff League draft in early February, knowing full well that it was probably an overpay. Chalk this one up to the shiny new toy effect and accept the fact that you’ll have to really open up the wallet to roster Sasaki during his first season in the big leagues.

I’ve already written up why I’m down on Aaron Nola, but I’ll just emphasize that his reputation as a front-line ace and the actual pts/IP production he provides in Ottoneu do not align very well. For Burnes, I’m concerned that his struggles for half the season last year weren’t just a blip but a portent for his eventual decline. I’m sure I’ll regret fading him, but his projections in Arizona aren’t that rosy and he’s had two straight seasons where his pts/IP sat right around five. In Ottoneu, you’d really like to see your staff ace sit about half a point higher per IP if you’re investing over $30 to roster them.

I will admit that I probably ranked Spencer Arrighetti lower than I should have. I knew that his second half surge was phenomenal, but I didn’t do enough research into why it was so good. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls in his curveball and sweeper to pair with a good fastball. Once he got his legs under him and made the necessary adjustments to the big leagues, he cruised through his final 14 starts. Placing him in that $6-$9 tier was a good call from Chad and I’d probably have him there too if I was redoing my rankings today.

The other day, a discussion related to the Ottoneu Prestige League (which opens again this week) brought out the fact that Willi Castro was the only player with 3B/SS/2B/OF eligibility who was projected at over 4.5 points per game. That was a fascinating fact. Having broad eligibility is really useful, but it is only useful if the player produces and Willi Castro doesn’t produce – but he was projected to produce! Willi Castro over 4.5 P/G is pretty intriguing!

But something didn’t pass the smell test.

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Real-life general managers face economic pressures of all kinds. It must be stressful to be in charge of it all; managing revenue, navigating relationships with the owner(s), the coaches, the players, the fans, deciding whether a player is “worth” the money he’ll likely win in an arbitration hearing, trying to figure out if you can fit in some greens to your diet. Ottoneu managers can face economic pressures too. For some reason, we actually enjoy fabricating the economic stressors that those real-world GM’s face. Why? Well, it’s fun to pretend. But also because we think we might actually be able to do the job ourselves. Be careful what you wish for, you may have to justify cutting a player like Freddie Freeman from your team because you thought it would be a good “economic” decision. Get your speaking notes ready for FanFest, prepare yourself for the press conference, ditch the greens, grab whatever’s still sitting under the heat lamp at the closest “Grab N’ Go!” It’s time to justify the offseason decisions you “had” to make.
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One Ottoneu manager’s cuts are another Ottoneu manager’s auction bids. But take heed pretend baseball general manager! These pitchers were cut for a reason. Maybe their signature pitch no longer fell out of the zone at the last split second like it used to. Maybe injury has the general public concerned. But, maybe those criticisms will be your opportunities. This article provides some context about the pitchers who were dropped the most at the keeper deadline, using “% of leagues with a cut in the last 7 days” as the starting point.
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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.

If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.

I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.

I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.

Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.

I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.

We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.

I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.

For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.

This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.

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Part one of my starting pitcher keep/cut articles had me diving deep on pitchers who have shown major league success but hadn’t yet instilled themselves in any major league rotation with consistency yet. That’s what we’re really after. But it takes time for pitchers to get there and you have to decide first, how long you’re willing to wait, and second, at what price. Read the rest of this entry »

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Thanks to the additions of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base is feeling a little deeper this year than it has in the recent past.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.

I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.

Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.

I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Not much more to say about these four guys beyond the obvious. If you want premium production from 1B, you’re going to have to pay up.

Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.

Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.

I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.

Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.

I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.