Archive for Ottoneu

My Personal Moneyball Moment

The following is the first in a series of probably two articles about my FanGraphs Staff League team on ottoneu. This was written during the season, prior to the start of the playoffs. Thus it contains no further reference to Nick Pollack’s heartrending defeat of me. That’s the topic of the next one.

Last winter, just before the ottoneu keeper deadline, our dark overlord (shh, don’t say his name) informed us that we would be switching to the new Head-to-Head format. I would say we didn’t have much time to adjust to the new settings, but, well, those settings were still very much in the design phase. At this point, my roster was set up as a back-end contender. With a little luck, I had a shot at first place. Maybe 15 percent? I wasn’t drawing dead, but I also wasn’t the odds on favorite.

The new format was a gift – manna from heaven – an unexpected opportunity to play a little Moneyball to get out ahead of the competition. And, after going 20-1 in the regular season, I’m comfortable saying I Moneyballed the crap out of my opponents.

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The First Half All-Sell-High Team

The All-Star game has come and gone, but the festivities are ongoing here at RotoGraphs. It’s time to rank the first half’s “All-Sell-High Team.” These are players who had big first halves, but who aren’t necessarily the best bets to repeat that performance in the second half. Without further ado, let’s get right to the list: Read the rest of this entry »


Four Under 40%

Contrary to popular belief, the secret to rebuilding (and winning) your fantasy league is not hoarding prospects. This season, you could be waiting patiently for the arrivals of Michael Kopech, Willie Calhoun, and Luis Urias to save your team, or you could have jumped on pop-up producers like Max Muncy, Jesus Aguilar, and Ross Stripling. Last year, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Charlie Morton were universally available if your timing was right.

The thing about prospects is that sometimes they pan out, and sometimes they don’t. Even a “successful” one like Ronald Acuña has just a 114 wRC+, with a rest-of-season projection slightly below that. In real life, that’s fantastic for a 20-year-old and Acuña is a likely future star. But in the meantime his production is nothing special.

And again: Acuña is a success story. Owners might wait years for the likes of Byron Buxton, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Reyes to carry their teams to relevancy. All the while, players like the following four who are owned in less than 40 percent (well, actually, 43 percent) of Ottoneu leagues have been quietly carrying contenders: Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Most Wanted: June 13, 2018

It’s been entirely too long since my last post, as I was hit with a double whammy of a death in the family and an emergency appendectomy for yours truly, but I’m back in the saddle!

Before I get into the meat of this article, I’d just like to give an update on the status of the ottoneu power rankings. I had some issues with the scripts when I tried to run the rankings for April, and my intention was to post May rankings last week, but obviously life got in the way. At this point I think it makes the most sense to just wait until June is over, so expect the first power rankings to be published the first week in July. Thanks for your patience!

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Ottoneu Most Wanted: May 9, 2018

I’ve long believed that ottoneu owners should essentially ignore the league standings through the first month of the baseball season, but that doesn’t mean teams should be resting on their laurels. The first couple months of the season are the best times to pounce on unexpected breakouts, and even if 75% of your pickups end up being duds the one or two studs you might find make the hunt fruitful. Let’s take a look at the players ottoneu teams are picking up and dropping most frequently over the past week:

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Ottoneu Prospect Report: May 3, 2018

As I did last year, I’m going to periodically review the top minor league prospect performances from a pure production standpoint (using linear weights based FanGraphs points). The annual top prospect lists do a good job of identifying the top talents in the minor leagues, but sometimes a prospect is lower ranked due to their extreme youth and long path to the majors, but then hits so well that their omission is glaring (think Fernando Tatis Jr.). In other cases a player not well thought of by scouts just continues to hit at every stop, and demands to be taken seriously (think Rhys Hoskins).

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Ottoneu Most Wanted: April 25, 2018

Happy Ronald Acuna day everyone! The baseball season creeps along through its first month, and I’m back again with a look at the most added and dropped players across all ottoneu leagues over the last week. Without further ado, let’s get started:

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Ottoneu Head To Head Strategies

Ottoneu has historically offered four different formats (two total points linear weights based, one traditional 5×5, and one saber-oriented 4×4), but this year head to head was added as an option for points leagues (think of your typical fantasy football league). You can read more about the format here, but today I wanted to highlight some of the rules that differ between ottoneu head to head and the standard points formats, and some strategy ideas driven by those differences.

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2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects: April Updates

In November I used the Prospect Scorecard to take an early look at the top 100 fantasy prospects for both Roto leagues and Ottoneu’s wOBA-heavy FanGraphs Points leagues.  In February I also added a quick fantasy spin on Eric and Kiley’s great preseason work ranking the top 100 prospects in baseball. Later this summer (July) I’ll update the top 100 for fantasy purposes, but today I want to briefly check in on a number of prospects that I think are rising (⬆) or falling (⬇) in value for various reasons in 2018.

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Ottoneu Most Wanted: April 12, 2018

The season is less than two weeks old, but the ottoneu waiver wire is as busy as ever. The sample sizes of early performances are microscopic, but if you want to snag the next breakout or “popup” performer the early bird gets the worm. In what will be a recurring feature again this year, let’s look at the ottoneu most added (and cut) players in the early going.

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