Archive for Ottoneu

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Middle Infield

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

 

Chad started off the Ottoneu rankings push with his 4×4 middle infield rankings yesterday and I’m following up with my rankings for Ottoneu points leagues. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/19/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 11 players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Added Sung-Mun Song.

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 50-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points MI Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$45-$54 1 Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1040.4 1.55 Clearly the best MI in baseball with just six hitters projected to outproduce him.
$36-$44 2 Ketel Marte 2B 857.8 1.47 The best 2B in baseball, trade rumors shouldn’t affect production.
$36-$44 3 Corey Seager SS 732.4 1.45 Productive when on the field but injury concerns will always be a factor.
$36-$44 4 Gunnar Henderson SS 941.6 1.43 Took a step back in 2025 but the ceiling is still very high.
$28-$35 5 Francisco Lindor SS 920.6 1.35 Consistent production means he’s a little overlooked in favor of flashier MI, but he’s been very good for four years straight.
$28-$35 6 Elly De La Cruz SS 885.2 1.34 Quad injury clearly held him back in 2025, but the ceiling is sky high. Considered ranking him a tier higher, but needs to prove it first.
$28-$35 7 Mookie Betts SS 800.3 1.31 Lost positional flexibility and spring illness negatively affected his entire 2025. Should bounce back in 2026, but how high?
$21-$27 8 Trea Turner SS 798.6 1.30 The power is probably on the downswing, but contact ability is still excellent. Steals are a bonus in FGpts.
$21-$27 9 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B/3B 721.2 1.29 Huge power explosion in first full season in New York raises his ceiling significantly.
$21-$27 10 Geraldo Perdomo SS 784.6 1.29 Big breakout in 2025 and all the underlying metrics look sustainable. Still worried about some power regression.
$21-$27 11 Zach Neto SS 747.8 1.27 The ceiling is a 30/30 season. Batted ball metrics all point to significant breakout potential.
$21-$27 12 Bo Bichette SS 746.4 1.27 Posted his best offensive season in 2025 after a down year in ’24. Any potential landing spot shouldn’t affect his production too much.
$15-$20 13 Jordan Westburg 2B/3B 593.6 1.23 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses, but no standout skills either. Needs to stay healthy.
$15-$20 14 Jose Altuve 2B/OF 745.4 1.21 Approaching the age cliff at 36 years old. Still possesses solid skills, but how long will they last?
$15-$20 15 Jeremy Peña SS 714.8 1.19 Came back down to earth after rib injury (143 wRC+ in 1H, 120 in 2H), but 2025 represented a big step forward for him.
$10-$14 16 Jacob Wilson SS 623.8 1.22 Idealized version of Luis Arraez with a touch more power. Still pretty BABIP dependent which leads to low lows.
$10-$14 17 Brandon Lowe 2B 615.9 1.21 Move to Pittsburgh shouldn’t hurt too much. 2025 was his first (mostly) healthy season since 2021.
$10-$14 18 Luke Keaschall 2B 512.7 1.20 Looked like a big leaguer in his cup of coffee in 2025. Batted ball peripherals are a bit concerning, but the contact skill is real.
$10-$14 19 Jorge Polanco 2B/3B 586.7 1.20 Swing change allowed him to thrive despite battling nagging injuries. Probably won’t be MI eligible next year.
$10-$14 20 CJ Abrams SS 730.9 1.19 Has developed into a good player, though the promise of a power breakout is probably fleeting unless he makes some serious contact quality gains.
$10-$14 21 Willy Adames SS 774.9 1.17 The power is real but playing in SF hurt his overall offensive production.
$10-$14 22 Brendan Donovan 2B/SS/OF 645.7 1.17 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses. Multi-positional eligibility helps his value.
$10-$14 23 Carlos Correa SS/3B 608.6 1.15 Has a history of quality production but health will determine if he can reach his previous highs.
$10-$14 24 Gleyber Torres 2B 734.2 1.15 Played through injury during the second half but still put up a solid season in Detroit.
$10-$14 25 Maikel Garcia 2B/SS/3B/OF 719.3 1.14 Huge breakout in 2025 doesn’t look like a mirage. Positional flexibility a big bonus.
$10-$14 26 Brice Turang 2B 706.7 1.14 Another big breakout from 2025 that looks like it’s going to stick. Might have the highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$6-$9 27 Colt Keith 1B/2B/3B 559.7 1.13 Quietly put together a great season in his second year in the big leagues. Projections really like him in 2026.
$6-$9 28 Trevor Story SS 643.4 1.13 First healthy year since 2021 led to significant improvements in contact quality. Poor plate discipline holds him back.
$6-$9 29 Luis García Jr. 2B 576.8 1.13 Still only 26, he’s improved signifcantly over the last few years. Added a bit of power in 2024, needs to put it all together to really take step forward.
$6-$9 30 Ezequiel Tovar SS 649.4 1.12 Extremely streaky hitter who had a big step backwards in 2025. Uncertain future, but Coors effect should be a benefit.
$6-$9 31 Nico Hoerner 2B 704.6 1.11 All hit, no power profile works when he’s making contact 90% of the time.
$6-$9 32 Xander Bogaerts SS 600.9 1.11 Probably won’t reach his previous highs, but still a useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$3-$5 33 Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B 396.9 1.21 Significant improvement in contact quality in 2025, but still might only be the short side of a 2B platoon.
$3-$5 34 Kevin McGonigle SS 360.2 1.19 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 35 Konnor Griffin SS 550.0 1.12 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 36 Brett Baty 2B/3B 461.9 1.12 Excellent 2H (135 wRC+) gives him something to build off of. Excellent contact quality but needs to elevate more often. Could have a path to playing time at DH in a crowded infield in New York.
$3-$5 37 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 557.5 1.10 New ballpark in Sacramento should help, but health uncertain after offseason thoracic outlet surgery.
$3-$5 38 Bryson Stott 2B/SS 623.8 1.10 Swing change helped him improve contact quality in 2H. Breakout candidate if the swing change sticks.
$3-$5 39 Luis Arraez 1B/2B 696.9 1.10 Contact rate king, but too much weak contact to make the most of all those balls in play.
$3-$5 40 Colson Montgomery SS/3B 533.1 1.09 A lot of home runs make up for a really poor approach at the plate.
$3-$5 41 Dansby Swanson SS 663.9 1.08 Still has some pop but poor plate approach caps his ceiling as an average MI.
$3-$5 42 Zach McKinstry SS/3B/OF 472.7 1.08 Came back down to earth after All-Star break (132 wRC+ in 1H, 81 in 2H). He really leaned into his pull side to outperform xwOBA. Positional flexibility is an asset.
$3-$5 43 JJ Wetherholt 2B/SS 448.4 1.08 Probably closer to the big leagues than the other two top prospects in this tier but lower ceiling than Griffin and McGonigle.
$3-$5 44 Xavier Edwards 2B/SS 594.3 1.07 BABIP fell by 68 points and walk rate dropped by 3 points in 2025. High-contact approach will always be dependent on batted ball luck.
$3-$5 45 Ozzie Albies 2B 636.6 1.07 He’s fallen pretty far from his peak but still only 29 years old. The power has completely evaporated and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back.
$3-$5 46 Jackson Holliday 2B/SS 613.2 1.06 Slower development than expected from a former top prospect. Ceiling is still high and only 22 years old.
$3-$5 47 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 594.0 1.05 Put together his best season in 2025 since breakout in 2021.
$3-$5 48 Marcus Semien 2B 657.1 1.04 Another veteran who has fallen far from his peak. Solid 2H gives some hope he’s still got something in the tank.
$1-$2 49 Kody Clemens 1B/2B/OF 332.3 1.07 Earned consistent playing time after joining Minnesota in late April and contact quality significantly improved. Doesn’t have a path to full-time at-bats right now, but should be first man off the bench.
$1-$2 50 Ceddanne Rafaela 2B/OF 602.8 1.07 Managed to cut strikeout rate by 6.5 points in 2025, but underlying plate discipline metrics aren’t pretty. Chases and whiffs too much to support a K% below 20%.
$1-$2 51 Caleb Durbin 2B/3B 553.9 1.07 High-contact, pull-oriented approach should play well in Boston.
$1-$2 52 Tyler Freeman 2B/OF 397.8 1.06 Claimed full-time at-bats by June but limped through the end of the season (66 wRC+ in 2H)
$1-$2 53 Marcelo Mayer 2B/SS/3B 424.9 1.06 Has had trouble staying healthy (wrist surgery derailed his rookie season) and might not start against LHP. Has the pedigree and skill set to be successful, but needs to put it all together first.
$1-$2 54 Willi Castro 2B/3B/OF 547.3 1.06 Absolutely tanked after joining Chicago last summer but he was a useful utility guy in Minnesota for three years. New home in Colorado should help.
$1-$2 55 Jonathan India 2B/3B/OF 587.9 1.05 Suffered through his worst season of his career in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage.
$1-$2 56 Gavin Lux 2B/3B/OF 487.8 1.05 Patient enough to have a solid floor but not enough power to have a high ceiling. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$1-$2 57 Josh Smith 1B/SS/3B/OF 541.8 1.05 Plate discipline improved in 2025 but contact quality slid backwards. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$1-$2 58 Matt McLain 2B 568.5 1.04 His breakout in 2023 seems like eons ago. Was the shoulder injury still affecting him or did we see the real McLain in ’25?
$1-$2 59 Jett Williams 2B/SS/OF 481.3 1.04 Trade to Milwaukee opens up a path to a major league debut in 2026. Power/speed combo is enticing, but questions about his hit tool remain.
$1-$2 60 J.P. Crawford SS 600.3 1.02 Excellent plate discipline gives him a solid floor but power dried up in 2025.
$1-$2 61 Masyn Winn SS 600.0 1.02 Played through knee injury in 2025 which could explain the dip in power output. Elite defense will keep him on the field, helping him accumulate points.
$1-$2 62 Kristian Campbell 1B/2B/OF 374.7 1.02 Disaster of a rookie campaign and now it doesn’t look like he has a path to a full-time role in the majors. Needs to bounce back in Triple-A first and force his way into the lineup.
$1-$2 63 Jordan Lawlar 2B/SS/3B 279.8 1.01 Arizona continues to find excuses to bury Lawlar on the depth chart. Now he’s learning center field this spring but still might be sharing time anyway.
$1-$2 64 Leo De Vries SS 427.4 0.93 Top prospect who might be a year or two away from making his debut. Very high ceiling, but still very young.
$1-$2 65 Colt Emerson SS 381.5 0.88 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have the elite carrying tool like other top prospects ranked above.
$0-$1 66 Jesús Made SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 67 Sebastian Walcott SS 376.2 0.81
$0-$1 68 Luis Peña 2B/SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 69 Ethan Holliday Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 70 George Lombard Jr. SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 71 Eli Willits Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 72 Travis Bazzana 2B 306.8 0.95
$0-$1 73 Franklin Arias SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 74 Aidan Miller SS 450.3 0.98
$0-$1 75 Bryce Rainer SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 76 Aiva Arquette SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 77 Angel Genao SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 78 JoJo Parker Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 79 Arjun Nimmala SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 80 Kaelen Culpepper SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 81 Edmundo Sosa 2B/SS/3B 276.9 1.11
$0-$1 82 Alex Freeland 2B/SS/3B 475.6 1.09
$0-$1 83 Davis Schneider 2B/OF 376.6 1.08
$0-$1 84 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 2B/SS 419.5 1.07
$0-$1 85 Tyler Fitzgerald 2B 336.0 1.05
$0-$1 86 Brooks Baldwin 2B/SS/3B/OF 374.2 1.05
$0-$1 87 Adael Amador 2B 393.2 1.04
$0-$1 88 David Hamilton 2B/SS 270.3 1.03
$0-$1 89 Nolan Gorman 2B/3B 456.2 1.02
$0-$1 90 Weston Wilson 2B/OF 255.1 1.02
$0-$1 91 Jeremiah Jackson SS/3B/OF 341.9 1.02
$0-$1 92 Otto Lopez 2B/SS 548.4 1.01
$0-$1 93 Jose Caballero 2B/SS/3B/OF 376.0 1.01
$0-$1 94 Edouard Julien 1B/2B 336.6 1.01
$0-$1 95 Lenyn Sosa 1B/2B 453.0 1.00
$0-$1 96 Casey Schmitt 1B/2B/3B 357.4 1.00
$0-$1 97 Ernie Clement 1B/2B/SS/3B 536.2 1.00
$0-$1 98 Nick Gonzales 2B/SS 412.1 0.99
$0-$1 99 Vaughn Grissom 2B/SS 328.3 0.99
$0-$1 100 Ronny Mauricio 2B/3B 288.6 0.99
$0-$1 101 Tommy Edman 2B/3B/OF 417.3 0.99
$0-$1 102 Carson Williams SS 404.4 0.98
$0-$1 103 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 517.4 0.98
$0-$1 104 Chase Meidroth 2B/SS 505.6 0.98
$0-$1 105 Anthony Volpe SS 557.7 0.97
$0-$1 106 Christian Moore 2B 385.6 0.97
$0-$1 107 Jared Triolo 1B/2B/SS/3B 439.4 0.97
$0-$1 108 Sung-Mun Song 송성문 2B/3B 450.8 0.95
$0-$1 109 Leo Jiménez 2B 230.9 0.94
$0-$1 110 Cole Young 2B/SS 358.4 0.92
$0 111 Jace Jung 2B/3B 399.2 1.04
$0 112 Dylan Moore 1B/2B/3B/OF 319.5 1.03
$0 113 Ramón Urías 2B/3B 336.5 1.02
$0 114 Miguel Rojas 2B/SS/3B 297.2 1.01
$0 115 José Fermín 2B 207.5 1.01
$0 116 Zack Gelof 2B 386.2 1.00
$0 117 Amed Rosario 2B/3B 313.1 0.98
$0 118 Blaze Alexander 2B/3B 350.7 0.97
$0 119 Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 2B/SS/OF 224.9 0.97
$0 120 José Tena 2B/3B 299.4 0.97
$0 121 Brendan Rodgers 2B 329.2 0.96
$0 122 Andy Ibáñez 2B/3B 243.7 0.96
$0 123 Max Muncy (ATH) 2B/SS/3B 329.5 0.96
$0 124 Brooks Lee 2B/SS/3B 472.1 0.95
$0 125 Joey Ortiz SS 480.1 0.94
$0 126 Thairo Estrada 2B 323.8 0.94
$0 127 Michael Massey 2B/OF 319.2 0.93
$0 128 Luis Rengifo 2B/3B/OF 415.9 0.93
$0 129 Luis Urías 2B/3B 265.6 0.93
$0 130 Leo Rivas 2B/SS 226.1 0.93
$0 131 Jon Berti 2B/3B 211.5 0.93
$0 132 Paul DeJong 2B/SS/3B 306.2 0.92
$0 133 Thomas Saggese 2B/SS/3B 353.3 0.92
$0 134 Christian Koss 2B/3B 208.8 0.92
$0 135 Nick Yorke 2B/OF 324.9 0.91
$0 136 Jorge Mateo 2B/SS/OF 188.6 0.91
$0 137 Nick Loftin 2B/3B/OF 233.1 0.91
$0 138 Darell Hernaiz 2B/SS/3B 314.5 0.91
$0 139 Mauricio Dubón 2B/SS/3B/OF 345.1 0.90
$0 140 Gabriel Arias 2B/SS 370.0 0.90
$0 141 Ezequiel Duran 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 270.8 0.90
$0 142 Brayan Rocchio 2B/SS 412.2 0.90
$0 143 Curtis Mead 1B/2B/3B 258.6 0.90
$0 144 Kyle Farmer 1B/2B/SS/3B 239.3 0.89
$0 145 Daniel Schneemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 306.1 0.89
$0 146 Chris Taylor 2B/OF 216.6 0.88
$0 147 Max Schuemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 279.7 0.88
$0 148 Michael Helman SS/OF 215.6 0.87
$0 149 Jose Iglesias 2B/SS/3B 254.5 0.87
$0 150 Luisangel Acuña 2B 344.0 0.87
$0 151 Nasim Nuñez 2B/SS 267.9 0.86
$0 152 Tim Tawa 1B/2B/OF 260.2 0.86
$0 153 Enrique Hernández 1B/2B/3B/OF/RP 281.9 0.86
$0 154 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B/SS/3B 355.8 0.86
$0 155 Adam Frazier 2B/OF 330.1 0.86
$0 156 Javier Báez 2B/SS/3B/OF 329.0 0.86
$0 157 Angel Martínez 2B/OF 347.5 0.86
$0 158 Taylor Walls SS 255.4 0.82
$0 159 Ildemaro Vargas 1B/2B/3B 197.1 0.82
$0 160 Orlando Arcia 1B/2B/SS/3B 324.8 0.81
$0 161 Josh Rojas 2B/3B 274.4 0.81
$0 162 Trey Sweeney SS 266.9 0.81
$0 163 Santiago Espinal 2B/3B/OF 238.3 0.78
$0 164 Oswald Peraza 1B/2B/SS/3B 200.6 0.71

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Third Base

Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/18/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for five players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Added Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto.

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 3B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$36-$44 1 José Ramírez 3B 954.8 1.46 133 wRC+ in 2025 was a “down” year for him. Contact quality slipped a bit too.
$28-$35 2 Junior Caminero 3B 848.1 1.42 Blasted 45 home runs in his first full year in the big leagues. Move back to Tropicana Field won’t help but has enough power that it won’t matter much.
$21-$27 3 Max Muncy (LAD) 3B 528.6 1.31 Muncy’s wRC+ after he started wearing glasses on April 30: 166. Contact quality improved and strikeout rate dropped by 5 points.
$21-$27 4 Austin Riley 3B 713.2 1.28 Four straight years of declining production is a big concern. Contact quality looks fantastic but plate discipline deteriorated in 2025.
$21-$27 5 Manny Machado 3B 803.1 1.26 A useful accumulator with good skills across the board. Always plays — two seasons in his entire career w/ less than 150 games played.
$15-$20 6 Munetaka Murakami 3B 710.7 1.29 The power is definitely real but there’s huge risk in his contact rate. The projections look decent, but the adjustment period could hurt.
$15-$20 7 Isaac Paredes 3B 612.8 1.22 Hamstring injury derailed a very good first year in Houston. Some concerns about playing time in a crowded lineup.
$15-$20 8 Matt Chapman 3B 719.7 1.21 Pretty reliable contributor across the board. No weaknesses, but no standout skills either.
$15-$20 9 Alex Bregman 3B 726.6 1.20 New home in Wrigley Field shouldn’t hurt his pull-heavy approach too much and he had his best contact quality of his career in 2025.
$10-$14 10 Kazuma Okamoto 1B/3B 636.2 1.22 Much more stable profile than Murakami without the high ceiling. Will probably end up getting 3B eligibility.
$10-$14 11 Eugenio Suárez 3B 750.7 1.20 Couldn’t keep his offensive resurgence going after re-joining Seattle. Ceiling might come down to where he signs.
$6-$9 12 Sal Stewart 1B/3B 570.8 1.19 Solid debut late last year with impressive contact quality. Needs to earn a spot in a crowded lineup.
$6-$9 13 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 645.6 1.16 Career-high contact rate in 2025, but still pounds the ball into the ground too often.
$6-$9 14 Mark Vientos 3B 526.3 1.16 Couldn’t repeat his breakout from 2024, rebounded a bit in 2H ’25. Contact quality looks good and strikeout rate dropped 5 points.
$6-$9 15 Addison Barger 3B/OF 531.6 1.15 1H breakout (125 wRC+) slowed way down in 2H (87) and then starred in the postseason (188). Great contact quality, needs to hone plate approach.
$3-$5 16 Yoán Moncada 3B 393.3 1.13 Big contact quality improvements in 2025 came at the cost of a slightly lower contact rate. The big question is if he can stay healthy.
$3-$5 17 Royce Lewis 3B 490.2 1.12 Is he healthy? If he is, is he the guy who posted a 152 wRC+ in 2023 or an 85 wRC+ in ’25?
$3-$5 18 Noelvi Marte 3B/OF 475.3 1.09 Looked pretty good after returning from PED suspension in July. Plate approach leaves a lot to be desired.
$3-$5 19 Miguel Vargas 1B/3B 558.6 1.07 Earned a shot at full-time at-bats and delivered a solid season with a good plate approach and decent contact quality.
$1-$2 20 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF 399.6 1.13 What a weird career arc. Huge 2H in 2025 was likely BABIP fueled (.413 BABIP w/ Cincinnati) but that comes with his aggressive, contact-oriented approach.
$1-$2 21 Matt Shaw 3B 438.1 1.08 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 and now it doesn’t look like he has a spot in the starting lineup with Bregman in town.
$1-$2 22 Otto Kemp 1B/3B/OF 365.8 1.08 Really solid contact quality, really poor plate approach. Also on the short side of a platoon in Philadelphia.
$1-$2 23 Connor Norby 3B 439.4 1.03 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025, but had a really intriguing debut back in ’24. Contact rate needs to improve to maintain any sort of success.
$1-$2 24 Nolan Arenado 3B 538.6 1.01 Offense cratered in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage. Maybe we’ll see a dead cat bounce now that he’s been traded to Arizona.
$1-$2 25 Josh Jung 3B 485.0 1.01 Injuries have derailed what had been a promising start to his career. Contact quality improved in 2025 and the contact rate jumped nearly 6 points, but still too aggressive with his approach.
$1-$2 26 Ryan McMahon 3B 560.0 1.01 Contact quality has been excellent but it’s really hard to survive with a strikeout rate over 30%. Probably on the strong side of a platoon in New York.
$0-$1 27 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B 272.4 1.03
$0-$1 28 Nate Eaton 3B/OF 297.6 1.02
$0 29 Justin Turner 1B/3B 405.4 1.06
$0 30 Kyle Karros 3B 315.5 0.98
$0 31 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 351.6 0.95
$0 32 Will Wagner 1B/3B 221.0 0.94
$0 33 Jose Miranda 3B 346.7 0.94
$0 34 Abraham Toro 1B/3B 325.5 0.92
$0 35 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B 220.4 0.89
$0 36 Brady House 3B 393.8 0.88
$0 37 Gio Urshela 3B 258.1 0.88
$0 38 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B/3B 336.0 0.87
$0 39 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 443.1 0.85
$0 40 Nacho Alvarez Jr. 3B 258.4 0.84
$0 41 Ben Williamson 3B 314.0 0.83

Chad Young’s 3B Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman <a href=

This list might have caused me more consternation than any other (important note: I haven’t looked at SP yet and that one is always painful). There are question marks up and down the rankings and the number of players who look like they could be sure-fire, high-quality starters but could also be high-risk busts is really high. Is the position deep? Is it shallow? Is it going to be easy to find a third basemen or will we all be dreading lineup decisions by May?

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Chad Young’s MI Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

Kansas City Royals shortstop <a href=

As we move into the final weeks before the keeper deadline, it’s time to get our Ottoneu rankings out. Over the next three plus weeks, you’ll get regular rankings articles from me and from Jake Mailhot, as discussed in my rankings preview in December. I will post my 4×4 tiered rankings position-by-position, and follow up that day or the next with rankings for FanGraphs Points league. On the 4×4 articles, I’ll give some overall thoughts on the position, while in the FanGraphs Points articles, I’ll offer thoughts on how the position looks different for 5×5 and Head-to-Head leagues. Jake’s FanGraphs points rankings will come out the day after my 4×4 rankings. We’re starting with middle infield.

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Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: First Base

Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues with a look at the final position player group: first basemen. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/17/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for seven players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Removed Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Sung Mun Song (moved to 3B or MI list).

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 30-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. I’m also including Util-only players in this list since there’s no good home for them elsewhere. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 1B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Shohei Ohtani Util/SP 1306.1 1.89 This ranking only reflects what he does as a hitter. Tack on the $25-$30 in value he provides as a pitcher and a $100 salary for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
$36-$44 2 Nick Kurtz 1B 850.6 1.57 Absolutely smashed the ball during his ROY award-winning campaign. Projects as the top 1B, though there’s still some risk the league will adjust to him.
$36-$44 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 1019.7 1.53 Power output has waxed and waned throughout his career, but the contact quality has always stayed elite. Even in a down power season, he was the 5th most valuable 1B in 2025.
$36-$44 4 Bryce Harper 1B 875.6 1.46 Some plate discipline yellow flags — high chase rate, low zone rate — but still has excellent contact quality.
$36-$44 5 Freddie Freeman 1B 918.6 1.45 Might be showing some signs of aging; strikeout rate jumped 5 points thanks to big spike in chase and whiff rates.
$28-$35 6 Pete Alonso 1B 950.1 1.41 Posted his best contact quality numbers of his career in 2025 and move to Camden Yards shouldn’t hurt too much.
$28-$35 7 Rafael Devers 1B 917.6 1.38 Struggled a bit once he joined San Francisco — strikeout rate jumped 7 points — but his contact quality remains elite.
$28-$35 8 Matt Olson 1B 940.1 1.37 Nice bounce back in 2025 after a down season in ’24. Plays every single day.
$21-$27 9 Michael Busch 1B 758.1 1.34 Followed up breakout 2024 with an even better season in ’25. Contact quality improved dramatically, though platoon split still remains wide.
$15-$20 10 Yandy Díaz 1B 824.0 1.33 Really took advantage of Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (.389 wOBA at home); return to Tropicana Field could hurt a bit. Fantastic plate approach gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 11 Josh Naylor 1B 762.2 1.29 Doesn’t have the contact quality heights of others in this tier, but solid approach at the plate gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 12 Jonathan Aranda 1B 589.4 1.27 Big breakout in 2025, though the .409 BABIP will certainly come down.
$15-$20 13 Willson Contreras 1B 645.1 1.26 Dip in walk rate a little concerning but the contact quality remained excellent. The move to Fenway Park definitely helps.
$15-$20 14 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 767.1 1.26 Similar to Naylor with a touch more power — improved barrel rate by 3.7 points in 2025.
$10-$14 15 Marcell Ozuna Util 765.6 1.34 Contact quality dipped significantly in 2025, offset a little by 5 point increase in walk rate.
$6-$9 16 Triston Casas 1B 335.0 1.24 Coming off a major knee surgery and was really bad in 2025 before the injury. He’ll have to battle for at-bats with Contreras manning 1B.
$6-$9 17 Spencer Horwitz 1B 543.2 1.21 Lost MI eligibility but still productive enough to be valuable at 1B. Good plate approach but poor batted ball quality holds him back.
$6-$9 18 Spencer Torkelson 1B 727.5 1.20 Finally broke out by cutting groundball rate to second lowest in the majors. Improved plate discipline too.
$6-$9 19 Kyle Manzardo 1B 591.5 1.19 Up-and-down year in 2025 but took small steps forward. Increased walk rate and slightly improved contact quality. Platoon split “only” 50 points of wOBA.
$3-$5 20 Joc Pederson Util 459.6 1.21 Went through big swings in production in 2025 and injuries limited his playing time. DH-only plus big platoon split limits his value.
$3-$5 21 Jake Burger 1B 572.8 1.14 Struggled in his first season in Texas, was demoted in May, and injured his wrist in September. Contact quality didn’t waver.
$3-$5 22 Christian Walker 1B 675.1 1.14 Plate discipline took a big step backward in his first year in Houston but contact quality remained solid.
$3-$5 23 Nolan Schanuel 1B 642.4 1.13 Great plate discipline gives him a high floor. Finally started elevating the ball in 2025 but contact quality still poor.
$3-$5 24 Pavin Smith 1B 383.3 1.12 Strikeout rate blew past 30% in 2025 but walk rate and contact quality still good. Big platoon split limits value.
$3-$5 25 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 609.4 1.12 Started off strong but fell apart by June. Power evaporated and it feels like we’ve seen the last of him as a productive hitter.
$3-$5 26 Josh Bell 1B 604.5 1.12 Big contact quality gains in 2025 but wOBA fell well short of his xwOBA.
$1-$2 27 Coby Mayo 1B 422.6 1.11 Difficult path to playing time on a crowded Baltimore roster and plenty of questions about his hit tool.
$1-$2 28 Andrew Vaughn 1B 578.8 1.08 Turned his career around after trade to Milwaukee. Chase rate and whiff rate greatly improved during the second half of the season. Needs to prove it.
$1-$2 29 Bryce Eldridge 1B 453.8 1.02 Massive power ceiling could be held back by hit tool questions. Should have an opportunity as a full-time DH in 2026.
$0-$1 30 Rhys Hoskins 1B 472.1 1.11
$0-$1 31 Nathaniel Lowe 1B 597.8 1.09
$0-$1 32 Ryan Mountcastle 1B 418.2 1.08
$0-$1 33 Tyler Locklear 1B 382.5 1.07
$0-$1 34 David Fry Util 277.8 1.05
$0-$1 35 Charlie Condon 1B 310.2 0.99
$0-$1 36 Adrian Del Castillo Util 275.8 0.98
$0 37 Xavier Isaac Util #N/A #N/A
$0 38 Jesse Winker Util 406.4 1.13
$0 39 Andrés Chaparro 1B 322.2 1.06
$0 40 Michael Toglia 1B 414.0 1.01
$0 41 Carlos Santana 1B 460.3 0.99
$0 42 Wilmer Flores 1B 362.9 0.99
$0 43 Ty France 1B 467.4 0.99
$0 44 Richie Palacios Util 265.1 0.95
$0 45 Anthony Rendon Util 166.7 0.81

Chad Young’s C Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice hits an RBI single in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game three of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium.
Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

As we continue our race against time (gotta get these in before you need to make final cut decisions!), Jake and I will turn our attention to catcher today and tomorrow. Catcher has been a weird position the last few years. Traditionally a weak fantasy position, it has gotten a lot stronger. But every year around this time, I feel like it is deeper than ever and every September, I look back at a slew of disappointments. And yes, it is deeper than it used to be, but that doesn’t mean it is all that great.

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Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Relief Pitchers

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Removed Andrew Saalfrank (shoulder surgery), added Kade Strowd, updated tier placement for Kevin Ginkel.

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

Ottoneu Points RP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Role Projected Pts Pts/IP
$21-$27 1 Mason Miller CL 614.8 9.66
$15-$20 2 Aroldis Chapman CL 547.5 9.22
$15-$20 3 Edwin Díaz CL 590.2 9.14
$15-$20 4 Cade Smith CL 643.9 9.04
$15-$20 5 Andrés Muñoz CL 563.3 8.96
$15-$20 6 Jhoan Duran CL 612.2 8.84
$10-$14 7 Devin Williams CL 536.5 8.66
$10-$14 8 Abner Uribe CL 618.1 8.56
$10-$14 9 Josh Hader CL 507.6 8.50
$10-$14 10 David Bednar CL 537.7 8.48
$6-$9 11 Ryan Walker CL 498.0 7.95
$6-$9 12 Daniel Palencia CL 481.4 7.91
$6-$9 13 Riley O’Brien CL? 447.5 7.83
$6-$9 14 Pete Fairbanks CL 468.0 7.83
$6-$9 15 Raisel Iglesias CL 501.6 7.77
$6-$9 16 Dennis Santana CL 526.7 7.76
$6-$9 17 Seranthony Domínguez CL 471.5 7.66
$6-$9 18 Emilio Pagán CL 493.8 7.58
$6-$9 19 Robert Garcia CL 475.3 7.56
$6-$9 20 Bryan Abreu SU8 524.7 7.55
$6-$9 21 Ryan Helsley CL 449.4 7.47
$6-$9 22 Gabe Speier MID 433.2 7.44
$6-$9 23 Jeff Hoffman CL 477.3 7.41
$6-$9 24 Griffin Jax CL? 489.8 7.37
$6-$9 25 Garrett Whitlock SU8 516.4 7.28
$6-$9 26 Adrian Morejon SU8 504.0 7.25
$3-$5 27 Clayton Beeter CL? 441.1 7.52
$3-$5 28 Trevor Megill SU8 409.4 7.19
$3-$5 29 Carlos Estévez CL 458.1 7.19
$3-$5 30 Grant Taylor SU8 459.6 7.10
$3-$5 31 Matt Brash SU8 404.6 7.06
$3-$5 32 Fernando Cruz SU7 385.7 7.04
$3-$5 33 Garrett Cleavinger CL? 441.2 7.04
$3-$5 34 Jeremiah Estrada SU7 493.7 7.01
$3-$5 35 Phil Maton SU8 433.2 6.99
$3-$5 36 Robert Suarez SU8 454.7 6.92
$3-$5 37 Will Vest SU8 465.6 6.90
$1-$2 38 Robert Stephenson CL? 398.9 7.39
$1-$2 39 Kevin Ginkel CL? 375.4 7.31
$1-$2 40 Justin Topa CL? 425.2 7.16
$1-$2 41 Hogan Harris CL? 507.1 6.94
$1-$2 42 Hunter Harvey SU7 349.5 6.90
$1-$2 43 Victor Vodnik CL 403.9 6.89
$1-$2 44 Shawn Armstrong SU7 467.4 6.84
$1-$2 45 Brendon Little MID 416.1 6.79
$1-$2 46 Alex Vesia SU7 409.2 6.76
$1-$2 47 Matt Svanson SU7 439.8 6.75
$1-$2 48 Camilo Doval SU8 435.6 6.75
$1-$2 49 Jose A. Ferrer SU7 487.7 6.74
$1-$2 50 Aaron Ashby MID 469.2 6.74
$1-$2 51 Matt Strahm SU7 423.3 6.70
$1-$2 52 José Alvarado SU8 352.8 6.64
$1-$2 53 A.J. Minter SU7 360.0 6.61
$1-$2 54 Eduard Bazardo MID 471.1 6.59
$1-$2 55 Edwin Uceta CL? 475.1 6.58
$1-$2 56 Gregory Soto SU8 390.8 6.58
$1-$2 57 Louis Varland MID 534.4 6.55
$1-$2 58 Jared Koenig SU7 438.5 6.54
$1-$2 59 Orion Kerkering MID 404.2 6.53
$1-$2 60 Yimi García SU8 321.9 6.52
$1-$2 61 JoJo Romero CL? 401.2 6.50
$1-$2 62 Andrew Kittredge SU8 384.9 6.46
$1-$2 63 Erik Sabrowski MID 327.3 6.46
$1-$2 64 Brad Keller SU7 460.1 6.40
$1-$2 65 Chris Martin SU8 304.9 6.36
$1-$2 66 Kyle Finnegan SU7 377.0 6.33
$1-$2 67 Tanner Scott SU8 380.0 6.25
$1-$2 68 Luke Weaver SU8 414.9 6.22
$1-$2 69 Kenley Jansen CL? 353.0 6.15
$1-$2 70 Hunter Gaddis SU8 430.9 6.14
$0-$1 71 Randy Rodríguez INJ 375.1 7.44
$0-$1 72 Félix Bautista INJ 227.5 7.40
$0-$1 73 Ronny Henriquez INJ 519.5 7.05
$0-$1 74 Justin Martinez INJ 316.2 7.05
$0-$1 75 Taylor Rogers CL? 385.8 7.03
$0-$1 76 Jason Adam INJ 384.5 6.81
$0-$1 77 Evan Phillips INJ 266.8 6.66
$0-$1 78 Ben Joyce INJ 258.9 6.64
$0-$1 79 Aaron Bummer MID 369.0 6.61
$0-$1 80 Graham Ashcraft SU7 422.0 6.46
$0-$1 81 Joe Jimenez INJ 279.8 6.40
$0-$1 82 Anthony Bender MID 351.0 6.40
$0-$1 83 Lucas Erceg SU8 385.3 6.38
$0-$1 84 Caleb Ferguson MID 383.2 6.37
$0-$1 85 Tyler Kinley MID 414.3 6.33
$0-$1 86 Brant Hurter MID 432.0 6.31
$0-$1 87 Cole Sands CL? 438.9 6.31
$0-$1 88 Bryan King SU7 412.6 6.26
$0-$1 89 Tyler Rogers SU7 454.2 6.18
$0 91 Tony Santillan SU8 431.8 6.17
$0 92 Justin Slaten SU7 312.7 6.13
$0 93 Huascar Brazobán MID 361.1 6.05
$0 94 Nick Mears MID 343.5 6.03
$0 95 José Buttó MID 392.3 6.01
$0 96 Kirby Yates CL? 295.9 6.00
$0 97 Jordan Leasure SU7 376.8 5.98
$0 98 Justin Sterner CL? 381.7 5.98
$0 99 Mark Leiter Jr. CL? 336.4 5.96
$0 100 Juan Mejia SU7 381.9 5.95
$0 101 Kade Strowd SU7 311.2 5.94
$0 102 Ryan Thompson SU8 315.6 5.93
$0 103 Calvin Faucher SU8 359.7 5.92
$0 104 Brenan Hanifee MID 361.6 5.91
$0 105 Isaac Mattson SU7 345.5 5.91
$0 106 Jimmy Herget SU8 464.4 5.84
$0 107 Yennier Cano ?? 327.4 5.84
$0 108 Tyler Holton MID 439.6 5.81
$0 109 Cole Winn SU7 354.3 5.79
$0 110 Brock Burke MID 354.3 5.74
$0 111 Joel Peguero SU8 312.7 5.66
$0 112 Keegan Akin SU7 364.3 5.64
$0 113 Michael Kopech INJ 357.7 5.61
$0 114 Porter Hodge ?? 277.4 5.57
$0 115 Jordan Romano MID 283.1 5.49
$0 116 Tommy Kahnle ?? 330.5 5.48

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/13/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for eight players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Removed

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 919.6 1.43 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 636.4 1.32 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 644.7 1.31 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Hunter Goodman C 678.6 1.31 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 5 Shea Langeliers C 678.0 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 6 Iván Herrera C 612.7 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 802.3 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 602.6 1.27 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Gabriel Moreno C 446.1 1.19 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 10 Samuel Basallo C/1B 462.0 1.18 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alejandro Kirk C 543.4 1.18 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 12 Francisco Alvarez C 451.3 1.18 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$6-$9 13 Salvador Perez C/1B 695.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 14 Adley Rutschman C 613.7 1.13 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$3-$5 15 Ryan Jeffers C 525.3 1.14 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 16 Yainer Diaz C 611.7 1.13 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$3-$5 17 Tyler Stephenson C 475.1 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$3-$5 18 Carter Jensen C 472.0 1.10 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$3-$5 19 Agustín Ramírez C 593.6 1.09 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 20 Kyle Teel C 456.6 1.09 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$1-$2 21 Austin Wells C 465.2 1.08 Should be a good source of power but plate discipline took a big step backwards in 2025.
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 522.0 1.08 He’s back in Philadelphia but 2025 was his worst season since his rookie year in 2015. How much longer can he catch 100+ games?
$1-$2 23 Dillon Dingler C 443.8 1.08 Pretty significant breakout in his first full season in the big leagues. Good contact quality but might be a little too dependent on BABIP.
$1-$2 24 Dalton Rushing C 271.2 1.08 Playing time blocked behind Will Smith, but could force his way into at-bats in the outfield mix or as backup catcher.
$1-$2 25 Moisés Ballesteros C 451.7 1.07 Top prospect should get plenty of time as DH in 2026. Promising late season debut, but contact quality is a little lacking.
$1-$2 26 Victor Caratini C/1B 362.0 1.06 Should see plenty of playing time as DH and backup catcher. Decent underlying skills and improved strikeout rate by 2.5 points in 2025.
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 28 Sean Murphy C 373.5 1.09
$0-$1 29 Gary Sánchez C 274.8 1.08
$0-$1 30 Carson Kelly C 387.1 1.07
$0-$1 31 Danny Jansen C 336.4 1.03
$0-$1 32 Joey Bart C 323.4 1.03
$0-$1 33 Luis Campusano C 351.6 1.02
$0-$1 34 Carlos Narváez C 417.8 1.01
$0-$1 35 Kyle Higashioka C 273.6 0.99
$0-$1 36 Edgar Quero C 415.2 0.98
$0-$1 37 Logan O’Hoppe C 434.4 0.98
$0-$1 38 Harry Ford C 363.1 0.97
$0-$1 39 Bo Naylor C 398.6 0.97
$0 40 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 41 Connor Wong C 324.4 0.99
$0 42 Liam Hicks C/1B 329.3 0.99
$0 43 Miguel Amaya C 254.1 0.96
$0 44 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 247.8 0.95
$0 45 Travis d’Arnaud C 238.1 0.93
$0 46 James McCann C 186.3 0.93
$0 47 Mitch Garver C 282.4 0.92
$0 48 Hunter Feduccia C 250.8 0.90
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 335.3 0.89
$0 50 Jake Rogers C 217.4 0.88
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 328.5 0.86
$0 52 Elias Díaz C 263.2 0.86
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 290.0 0.86
$0 54 Rafael Marchán C 118.7 0.85
$0 55 Reese McGuire C 153.5 0.85
$0 56 Jose Trevino C 214.6 0.82
$0 57 Patrick Bailey C 362.5 0.82
$0 58 Henry Davis C 225.5 0.81
$0 59 Jonah Heim C 326.7 0.81
$0 60 Jacob Stallings C 161.9 0.80
$0 61 Nick Fortes C 222.2 0.78
$0 62 Korey Lee C 231.0 0.75
$0 63 Ben Rortvedt C 158.8 0.70
$0 64 Christian Vázquez C 171.6 0.69

Interesting Results from Early Ottoneu Auctions

Chicago White Sox first baseman <a href=

With the Ottoneu keeper deadline on January 31, it is possible for auctions for established leagues to start as soon as February 1. In practice, they rarely do, but there are a few auctions either underway (slow auctions taking some time to finish up) or completed, and that gives us a chance to learn quite a bit.

Earlier in the offseason, there were some mock auctions and some first-year auctions for new leagues, but those don’t behave like keeper auctions. Now that we have a few keeper auctions, we can start to get a sense of how your keeper drafts – whether they are Ottoneu auctions or drafts in another format – might behave.

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Chad Young’s RP Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Cade Smith (36) throws in the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers during game three of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field.
Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

We flipped the script this week, with Jake Mailhot posting his FanGraphs Points reliever ranks before I posted my 4×4 ranks, but I still wanted to provide my ranks. I am also going to make this article – the last of the ranks before the keeper deadline this weekend! – pull double duty. In addition to my 4×4 tiers, I am going to share my thoughts on Points and 5×5 leagues, as well as head-to-head, rather than doing a full follow-up article. All the same great taste now packed into a single bite.

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