Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 27, 2025

Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 26–June 1

Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 26–June 1
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI PIT (160) WSN (121) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2)
ATH @HOU (66) @TOR (72) Luis Severino JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs, Gunnar Hoglund Jacob Lopez
ATL @PHI (41) BOS (79) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider (vBOS) Strider (@PHI) AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes
BAL STL (95) CHW (163) Zach Eflin Tomoyuki Sugano (vCHW) Sugano (vSTL), Cade Povich, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @MIL (142) @ATL (81) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito, Hunter Dobbins, Walker Buehler Brayan Bello
CHC COL (158) CIN (100) Matthew Boyd Cade Horton, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown
CHW @NYM (102) @BAL (114) Shane Smith Adrian Houser (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin Sean Burke
CIN @KCR (132) @CHC (83) Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE LAD (52) LAA (82) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi
COL @CHC (83) @NYM (102) Kyle Freeland Carson Palmquist (x2), Germán Márquez, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET SFG (132) @KCR (132) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize Keider Montero (x2)
HOU ATH (93) TBR (135) Hunter Brown (x2), Frambe Valdez Lance McCullers Jr., Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon
KCR CIN (80) DET (59) Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Daniel Lynch IV
LAA NYY (12) @CLE (153) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CLE (153) NYY (26) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2), Dustin May Clayton Kershaw Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack
MIA @SDP (100) SFG (111) Ryan Weathers (x2) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill
MIL BOS (70) @PHI (41) Freddy Peralta Chad Patrick, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana (?), Logan Henderson Quinn Priester
MIN @TBR (108) @SEA (154) Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM CHW (160) COL (156) Clay Holmes (x2), David Peterson, Kodai Senga Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning
NYY @LAA (72) @LAD (28) Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough (x2)
PHI ATL (79) MIL (116) Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT @ARI (49) @SDP (100) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney (@SDP) Heaney (@ARI), Bailey Falter Mike Burrows
SDP MIA (108) PIT (160) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez, Yu Darvish (?), Stephen Kolek
SEA WSN (133) MIN (112) George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller (?) Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock
SFG @DET (80) @MIA (96) Logan Webb, Robbie Ray Landen Roupp Hayden Birdsong (x2), Kyle Harrison
STL @BAL (114) @TEX (127) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 (x2) Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR MIN (79) @HOU (66) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley (x2)
TEX TOR (81) STL (72) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @TEX (127) ATH (93) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 (?), José Berríos
WSN @SEA (154) @ARI (49) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (@SEA) Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Parker (@ARI)

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 22, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Mick Abel (40) throws a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third inning at Citizens Bank Park.
Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: May 22, 2025

Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Why We Cut Yordan Alvarez

Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

In league 13, the FanGraphs Staff Ottoneu Head-to-Head league, I co-manage a team with Niv Shah. We just won a few auctions and among the cuts we made to get legal were an underperforming reliever (Joel Payamps), a low-value OF (Andrew Benintendi), a roller coaster of a starting pitcher (Yusei Kikuchi), and one big-time star: Yordan Alvarez.

The first three all look like pretty typical cuts, but that last one stands out and clearly caught some leaguemates by surprise. But there were good reasons for the decision to drop Alvarez.

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Two Graphs, One Player: The Carson Kelly Conundrum

Cubs catcher Carson Kelly (15) reacts after hitting a home run against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Wrigley Field.
Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

In the wild and crazy world of Ottoneu fantasy baseball, players can battle it out in a points-style format that is so true to modern hitting that batting averages are meaningless and home runs are more valuable than a 12-pack of eggs. Don’t worry, this article applies to all leagues, regardless of format. Has this ever happened to you?

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: May 16, 2025

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 19–25

Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 19–25
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (33) @STL (89) Zac Gallen Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt (@STL) Pfaadt (@LAD) Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH LAA (127) PHI (66) JP Sears, Luis Severino Gunnar Hoglund, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2), J.T. Ginn (?)
ATL @WSN (116) SDP (86) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach Spencer Strider (?), AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes
BAL @MIL (164) @BOS (72) Zach Eflin Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich Kyle Gibson
BOS NYM (40) BAL (130) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler (vBAL) Hunter Dobbins (x2), Buehler (vNYM), Brayan Bello
CHC @MIA (134) @CIN (117) Ben Brown (x2), Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW SEA (72) TEX (99) Shane Smith Davis Martin (x2) Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon
CIN @PIT (169) CHC (46) Nick Lodolo (@PIT), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott, Lodolo (vCHC) Hunter Greene (?)
CLE @MIN (113) @DET (71) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz Kolby Allard
COL PHI (56) NYY (10) Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela (x2), Carson Palmquist (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander
DET @STL (89) CLE (114) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize (?) Keider Montero
HOU @TBR (140) SEA (96) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon (x2)
KCR @SFG (130) @MIN (113) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @ATH (71) MIA (104) José Soriano (vMIA) Soriano (@ATH), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD ARI (52) @NYM (79) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin Landon Knack (x2)
MIA CHC (78) @LAA (118) Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2)
MIL BAL (135) @PIT (169) Freddy Peralta Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick Quinn Priester (x2), Aaron Civale (?), Tobias Myers
MIN CLE (96) KCR (116) Bailey Ober (x2), Joe Ryan, Pablo López Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM @BOS (72) LAD (74) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY TEX (105) @COL (100) Will Warren (vTEX), Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Warren (@COL) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @COL (100) @ATH (71) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez Aaron Nola (x2)
PIT CIN (118) MIL (145) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller (vMIL) Keller (vCIN), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @TOR (84) @ATL (123) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @CHW (150) @HOU (77) Bryan Woo (x2), Luis Castillo (@CHW) George Kirby (?), Castillo (@HOU) Emerson Hancock Logan Evans
SFG KCR (143) @WSN (116) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Jordan Hicks Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander
STL DET (74) ARI (82) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR HOU (94) TOR (82) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot (x2), Taj Bradley, Shane Baz Zack Littell
TEX @NYY (32) @CHW (150) Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter Jacob deGrom Patrick Corbin (@CHW) Corbin (@NYY)
TOR SDP (91) @TBR (140) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt (@TBR) Bassitt (vSDP), José Berríos Bowden Francis José Ureña
WSN ATL (157) SFG (111) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 14, 2025

Credit: John Leyba-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 13, 2025

Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Right now, there’s an absolute dearth of starting pitching available on the waiver wire. I’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel for these nine under-rostered pitchers — four starters and five relievers.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Colin Rea CHC 31 3.44 13.5% 95 4.51 40.4%
Tyler Anderson LAA 35.1 3.82 13.3% 96 4.99 20.8%
Chad Patrick MIL 31.1 3.05 12.4% 103 4.83 11.6%
Chris Paddack MIN 32.1 4.04 14.7% 95 4.77 7.6%

I covered Colin Rea the last time I ran this column and I still think he’s one of the more interesting starting pitchers out there. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball all make him a pretty interesting pick up.

Tyler Anderson isn’t flashy or fancy but he’s a veteran starter with one elite pitch, his changeup. When that pitch is working for him, he can have stretches like this where he’s able to limit hard contact and generate just enough swings and misses. He probably won’t reach the ceiling of his breakout season with the Dodgers back in 2022, but he’s a solid enough starter that can be counted on in the right matchups.

Chad Patrick has filled in capably for the Brewers as they work through all their early season injuries. He’s survived by inducing a ton of weak contact in the air, which has served him well so far, but it’s also the same reasony why his xFIP is 4.42, more than a run higher than his ERA. Still, over his last three starts, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a very good 4.67 and he’s improved as he’s adjusted to pitching in the big leagues for the first time.

Chris Paddack started off the season with two absolute stinkers, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings with more walks than strikeouts. In his six starts since then, he’s allowed just 10 runs in 32.1 innings with a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last start against the Giants was his best of the year; he pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just three hits while striking out six. He’s always been a bit home run prone and he’s been pretty lucky in that regard during this stretch. Still, it seems like he has his signature fastball-changeup combo working for him right now.

Under-rostered Relievers, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Brendon Little TOR 11.2 2.09 22.0% 1.40 116 7.69 36.7%
Mason Fluharty TOR 13.1 2.29 20.5% 0.95 117 8.65 0.9%
Danny Coulombe MIN 11.1 0.47 38.5% 1.34 104 9.96 28.4%
Nick Mears MIL 13 1.89 20.5% 2.13 98 9.17 21.4%
Ryan Borucki PIT 10.2 1.90 20.0% 0.93 115 8.83 8.6%

The Blue Jays have quietly put together one of the best relief corps in baseball and that’s largely thanks to breakout seasons from guys like Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty. Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Little leads all of baseball in swinging strike rate. His sinker has been devastating thanks to some mechanical deception and a ton of drop on the pitch. Fluharty might be even more interesting. As a lefty, he’s yet to allow a hit to a right-handed batter this year. Like Little, he’s got some mechanical deception aiding him and a hard cutter that has given right-handed batters fits when it’s located on the inside half of the plate. Little is a little higher on Toronto’s bullpen pecking order, but Fluharty should be seeing some high leverage work soon too.

Danny Coulombe hasn’t allowed a run in almost a full calendar year. Of course, a lot of his 2024 season was spent on the IL, but he’s now run his scoreless streak to 27 games and 26.1 innings. It took a while for the Twins to start giving him high leverage work but he’s finally working the seventh and eighth innings regularly.

The Brewers bullpen has been a bit of a work-in-progress this year after they moved on from their closer Devin Williams in the offseason. Trevor Megill has a tight hold on the ninth inning, but Nick Mears has worked his way into the high leverage mix in the seventh and eighth innings.

Ryan Borucki isn’t seeing that much high leverage work yet, but the guys in front of him in the Pirates bullpen aren’t all that impressive. The biggest difference for him this year are a new splitter and sweeper that are both returning above average whiff rates. Those two pitches have pushed his Stuff+ from merely average up to 109 on the season.