Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 8–14

Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 8–14
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (110) @MIN (97) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Nabil Crismatt (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH BOS (40) CIN (82) Luis Severino, Luis Morales (vCIN) Morales (vBOS), J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Mason Barnett
ATL CHC (68) HOU (77) Chris Sale Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Bryce Elder
BAL PIT (123) @TOR (46) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @ATH (61) NYY (30) Garrett Crochet (x2) Payton Tolle Dustin May, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello
CHC @ATL (109) TBR (114) Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga (x2) Jameson Taillon (?), Colin Rea
CHW TBR (83) @CLE (169) Martín Pérez Yoendrys Gómez (x2), Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN @SDP (117) @ATH (61) Nick Lodolo (@SDP), Andrew Abbott Hunter Greene, Lodolo (@ATH) Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE KCR (122) CHW (122) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick Slade Cecconi (x2), Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL @LAD (72) @SDP (117) Chase Dollander (x2), Germán Márquez (x2), Kyle Freeland, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET @NYY (41) @MIA (136) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton Casey Mize Sawyer Gipson-Long (x2)
HOU @TOR (46) @ATL (109) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Jason Alexander (x2), Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia
KCR @CLE (169) @PHI (50) Michael Wacha Ryan Bergert (@CLE), Noah Cameron (@CLE), Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen, Bergert (@PHI), Cameron (@PHI)
LAA MIN (92) @SEA (144) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Caden Dana (x2), Kyle Hendricks (x2), Mitch Farris
LAD COL (146) @SFG (110) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
MIA WSN (112) DET (95) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk (?), Eury Pérez (x2), Ryan Weathers (?) Adam Mazur
MIL @TEX (92) STL (136) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Jose Quintana (x2), Quinn Priester
MIN @LAA (120) ARI (97) Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober
NYM @PHI (50) TEX (93) Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea (vTEX) Manaea (@PHI), Brandon Sproat
NYY DET (88) @BOS (53) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler Will Warren (x2), Luis Gil
PHI NYM (37) KCR (104) Cristopher Sánchez Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2), Taijuan Walker Walker Buehler (?)
PIT @BAL (93) @WSN (144) Braxton Ashcraft (x2), Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Johan Oviedo, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CIN (121) COL (159) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Yu Darvish (vCOL) Darvish (vCIN), Nestor Cortes (x2)
SEA STL (164) LAA (151) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG ARI (121) LAD (123) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Carson Seymour
STL @SEA (144) @MIL (72) Michael McGreevy, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR @CHW (107) @CHC (117) Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen Ian Seymour Adrian Houser (x2), Shane Baz
TEX MIL (47) @NYM (61) Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz (x2), Patrick Corbin
TOR HOU (80) BAL (112) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt
WSN @MIA (136) PIT (110) Cade Cavalli (x2) Brad Lord Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez

Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 4, 2025

Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 3, 2025

Aug 30, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Jeremiah Jackson (82) takes a swig of water from the ceremonial sprinkler after hitting a two-run home run against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Oracle Park.
Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 1–7

Credit: Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 1–7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TEX (93) BOS (114) Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Eduardo Rodriguez Nabil Crismatt
ATH @STL (146) @LAA (125) Luis Morales (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, J.T. Ginn Osvaldo Bido
ATL @CHC (151) SEA (75) Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Joey Wentz, Hurston Waldrep Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL @SDP (123) LAD (109) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS CLE (154) @ARI (91) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Payton Tolle, Lucas Giolito Dustin May
CHC ATL (102) WSN (137) Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea (vWSN) Rea (vATL), Javier Assad
CHW @MIN (109) @DET (84) Aaron Civale (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin (x2), Yoendrys Gómez
CIN TOR (26) NYM (21) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE @BOS (86) @TBR (77) Parker Messick (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi (x2)
COL SFG (68) SDP (84) Chase Dollander, Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET NYM (72) CHW (131) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton (x2) Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU NYY (41) @TEX (96) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Luis Garcia (?), Jason Alexander, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR LAA (123) MIN (123) Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @KCR (97) ATH (48) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Caden Dana (?)
LAD @PIT (116) @BAL (123) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @WSN (148) PHI (91) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara Ryan Gusto (x2), Adam Mazur
MIL PHI (88) @PIT (116) Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN CHW (113) @KCR (97) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Pablo López (?) Bailey Ober (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel
NYM @DET (84) @CIN (103) Nolan McLean, David Peterson Sean Manaea (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (?), Kodai Senga
NYY @HOU (151) TOR (47) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil
PHI @MIL (90) @MIA (147) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker (x2), Aaron Nola
PIT LAD (92) MIL (67) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Mike Burrows (x2), Braxton Ashcraft Johan Oviedo
SDP BAL (151) @COL (79) Dylan Cease (vBAL) Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta, Cease (@COL) Michael King (?)
SEA @TBR (77) @ATL (82) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG @COL (79) @STL (146) Logan Webb, Justin Verlander Robbie Ray, Keaton Winn (?) Carson Whisenhunt (x2)
STL ATH (90) SFG (118) Sonny Gray (x2) Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR SEA (47) CLE (140) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (vCLE) Baz (vSEA), Adrian Houser, Ian Seymour
TEX @ARI (91) HOU (112) Jacob deGrom Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR @CIN (103) @NYY (37) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Eric Lauer 라우어, Max Scherzer
WSN MIA (123) @CHC (151) MacKenzie Gore (x2), Brad Lord Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: August 29, 2025

Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. If you’re in an Ottoneu head-to-head league, the playoffs begin on Monday. Here are five starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who might be a benefit to your first-round playoff matchup.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Justin Verlander SFG 32.1 2.38 20.0% 112 5.28 50.46%
Luis Morales ATH 22.2 3.08 13.6% 106 6.07 43.12%
Ian Seymour TBR 18.2 3.39 27.4% 94 5.53 30.28%
Joey Wentz ATL 33.1 3.18 8.8% 93 5.16 19.57%
Martín Pérez CHW 15.2 1.91 21.1% 86 7.45 11.32%

This isn’t the same Justin Verlander who could carry a fantasy pitching staff for much of his career, but don’t be so quick to write off the seemingly ageless veteran. Since the All-Star break, he has a 3.05 FIP thanks to a miniscule home run rate and a pretty good strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA during this same period is more than a run higher than his peripherals would indicate, but because Ottoneu uses FIP-based scoring, it’s actually okay that he’s allowing a few more runs than expected, as long as he’s also preventing home runs too. Next week, he avoids the Giants’ series in Colorado and has a nice matchup against the punchless Cardinals in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in St. Louis.

Luis Morales has very quickly established himself in the big leagues after making his debut on August 1. He entered the season as the A’s top pitching prospect, though he’s pretty raw at this stage of his development. He only signed as an international amateur out of Cuba in January 2023 and had an absolutely meteoric rise through the Athletics’ farm system. He’s looked pretty dominant in the majors already; in his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs total while striking out 18 in 18 innings. He’s got the skills and stuff to be a frontline pitcher for the A’s as he continues to develop. Next week is a nice two-start week against two pretty weak teams (@STL and @LAA) away from the launching pad in Sacramento.

Ian Seymour only recently made the jump to the starting rotation after making 12 appearances out of the Rays bullpen. Lucas Kelly featured him in his Hot Right Now column yesterday, writing:

Much of [Seymour’s] success can be attributed to his changeup. Its 16.0% swinging strike rate has been above average when compared to pitchers who have thrown at least 150 of them this season. With a small sample, Seymour’s fastball is performing better than you might expect, holding an 11.9% swinging strike rate. The pitch has a below-average Stuff+, Location+, and averages 92 MPH.

Some pretty violent mechanics led to some scouting reservations and put a cap on his potential ceiling as a prospect. His one start was excellent — a shutout affair with eight strikeouts in five innings — granted, it came against the Guardians who are the worst hitting team in baseball. Still, he’s lined up to face Cleveland again in his start next week.

After struggling to establish himself in Detroit to start his career, Joey Wentz has finally found some success in Atlanta, his third organization this year. While the results have been nice (3.43 ERA with the Braves), his peripherals paint a different picture. His FIP in Atlanta is a sparkling 3.03 but that’s almost entirely propped up by a miniscule 4.3% HR/FB rate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty mediocre and he’s dealt with some command issues in his recent past. You might be able to get away with a good start or two if his home run luck holds, but the foundation doesn’t look very solid.

Martín Pérez also got a passing mention in Kelly’s column yesterday, but I wanted to highlight him here too because he’s actually been surprisingly good for the White Sox this year. He’s running the highest strikeout rate of his career at 22.9% and the biggest difference is an emphasis on his cutter as his primary pitch rather than his sinker. His changeup has continued to be an elite weapon, but that pitch mix change has earned him a lot more whiffs than before. The big red flag is that his contact management peripherals all scream for some regression. He’s allowed a 12.9% barrel rate but just one home run this year and his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all more than a full run higher than his FIP. His start against the Yankees on Sunday might help you determine if you’d want to stream him next week for his start against the Tigers in Detroit.


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 28, 2025

Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 25–31

Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 25–31
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIL (72) @LAD (46) Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt (x2) Nabil Crismatt
ATH DET (68) TEX (79) Jacob Lopez J.T. Ginn (x2), Jack Perkins, Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL @MIA (120) @PHI (37) Hurston Waldrep Spencer Strider (x2), Joey Wentz Chris Sale (?) Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL BOS (106) @SFG (182) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish (@SFG) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Bradish (vBOS), Cade Povich
BOS @BAL (119) PIT (136) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito (x2), Dustin May Brayan Bello Walker Buehler (x2)
CHC @SFG (182) @COL (51) Matthew Boyd (@SFG), Shota Imanaga Boyd (@COL) Colin Rea, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon
CHW KCR (64) NYY (21) Aaron Civale Shane Smith (x2), Martín Pérez (x2), Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN @LAD (46) STL (101) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene (vSTL) Greene (@LAD), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Nick Martinez
CLE TBR (156) SEA (94) Tanner Bibee (x2), Parker Messick, Gavin Williams Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @HOU (146) CHC (74) Tanner Gordon (x2), Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber
DET @ATH (37) @KCR (95) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Charlie Morton, Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU COL (128) LAA (88) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti Luis Garcia (?)
KCR @CHW (126) DET (97) Michael Wacha Noah Cameron (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @TEX (127) @HOU (146) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Kyle Hendricks (x2), Tyler Anderson, Victor Mederos
LAD CIN (93) ARI (52) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA ATL (78) @NYM (72) Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara (x2), Eury Pérez Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL ARI (50) @TOR (72) Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana
MIN @TOR (72) SDP (104) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM PHI (101) MIA (113) David Peterson Kodai Senga (x2), Sean Manaea (x2), Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes
NYY WSN (91) @CHW (126) Max Fried Cam Schlittler (x2), Luis Gil (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI @NYM (72) ATL (75) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola
PIT @STL (133) @BOS (71) Mitch Keller (@STL), Paul Skenes Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Keller (@BOS) Johan Oviedo (x2)
SDP @SEA (146) @MIN (124) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta JP Sears, Yu Darvish Nestor Cortes
SEA SDP (124) @CLE (161) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller (@CLE) Miller (vSDP), Luis Castillo
SFG CHC (128) BAL (171) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander (vBAL) Verlander (vCHC), Carson Whisenhunt
STL PIT (168) @CIN (72) Michael McGreevy (vPIT), Sonny Gray McGreevy (@CIN) Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR @CLE (161) @WSN (133) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (x2), Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX LAA (78) @ATH (37) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Patrick Corbin
TOR MIN (146) MIL (46) Max Scherzer (vMIN), Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Scherzer (vMIL)
WSN @NYY (38) TBR (148) Brad Lord (vTBR) Lord (@NYY), MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Cold Right Now: August 20, 2025

Aug 16, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt (12) takes the ball from starting pitcher Slade Cecconi (44) during a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Progressive Field.
Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 18–24

Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 18–24
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CLE (156) CIN (131) Zac Gallen (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Casey Kelly 켈리 (?)
ATH @MIN (124) @SEA (149) Jacob Lopez (x2), Jeffrey Springs J.T. Ginn, Jack Perkins Luis Morales
ATL CHW (140) NYM (80) Spencer Strider (x2) Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL @BOS (58) HOU (91) Trevor Rogers (x2) Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Bradish (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer
BOS BAL (152) @NYY (81) Garrett Crochet Dustin May (vBAL) Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, May (@NYY)
CHC MIL (54) @LAA (91) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (x2), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea, Javier Assad
CHW @ATL (96) MIN (128) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Yoendrys Gómez (x2)
CIN @LAA (91) @ARI (52) Hunter Greene Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo (?) Zack Littell
CLE @ARI (52) @TEX (159) Gavin Williams (@TEX) Williams (@ARI), Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL LAD (44) @PIT (126) Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Bradley Blalock (x2), Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET HOU (92) KCR (118) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack
HOU @DET (102) @BAL (137) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR TEX (144) @DET (102) Michael Wacha (x2), Noah Cameron Seth Lugo (x2) Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert
LAA CIN (100) CHC (82) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Victor Mederos (x2), Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson
LAD @COL (39) @SDP (94) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (@SDP) Yamamoto (@COL) Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw Emmet Sheehan
MIA STL (143) TOR (44) Eury Pérez (vSTL) Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Pérez (vTOR) Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL @CHC (147) SFG (117) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff (x2), Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana DL Hall
MIN ATH (61) @CHW (128) Joe Ryan (x2) Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM @WSN (140) @ATL (96) David Peterson (@WSN), Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea Clay Holmes, Peterson (@ATL) Nolan McLean
NYY @TBR (95) BOS (72) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2), Luis Gil, Will Warren Cam Schlittler
PHI SEA (75) WSN (100) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT TOR (50) COL (119) Paul Skenes (x2) Mike Burrows Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Andrew Heaney
SDP SFG (133) LAD (82) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes (vSFG), Yu Darvish Cortes (vLAD) Randy Vásquez
SEA @PHI (70) ATH (82) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby Bryce Miller (?)
SFG @SDP (94) @MIL (73) Logan Webb Landen Roupp Robbie Ray (x2), Justin Verlander Kai-Wei Teng (x2)
STL @MIA (99) @TBR (95) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy Matthew Liberatore (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR NYY (62) STL (125) Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Adrian Houser, Ryan Pepiot Joe Boyle
TEX @KCR (114) CLE (141) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR @PIT (126) @MIA (99) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer Chris Bassitt, Shane Bieber (?), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN NYM (84) @PHI (70) Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Cade Cavalli Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 11–17

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 11–17
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (132) @COL (49) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (@TEX) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Nelson (@COL)
ATH TBR (122) LAA (82) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino Jack Perkins
ATL @NYM (140) @CLE (130) Spencer Strider (x2) Joey Wentz Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL SEA (104) @HOU (111) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich Brandon Young
BOS @HOU (111) MIA (58) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello
CHC @TOR (41) PIT (146) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (vPIT) Horton (@TOR), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea
CHW DET (69) @KCR (122) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Mike Vasil (F)
CIN PHI (50) MIL (12) Andrew Abbott (x2), Chase Burns Brady Singer, Hunter Greene (?) Zack Littell
CLE MIA (83) ATL (112) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건 (x2), Slade Cecconi
COL @STL (146) ARI (76) Kyle Freeland (@STL) Anthony Molina (x2), Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon
DET @CHW (94) @MIN (99) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Chris Paddack (x2)
HOU BOS (75) BAL (106) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier (?), Spencer Arrighetti Colton Gordon
KCR WSN (135) CHW (102) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA LAD (66) @ATH (23) José Soriano (x2), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson, Kyle Henderson, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @LAA (113) SDP (90) Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @CLE (130) @BOS (47) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera Janson Junk (@CLE), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Junk (@BOS)
MIL PIT (122) @CIN (95) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN @NYY (85) DET (86) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (x2) Bailey Ober, José Ureña, Simeon Woods Richardson (?) Pierson Ohl
NYM ATL (115) SEA (102) Clay Holmes (vATL), David Peterson, Sean Manaea Kodai Senga, Holmes (vSEA) Frankie Montas
NYY MIN (101) @STL (146) Max Fried Will Warren (x2), Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil Cam Schlittler
PHI @CIN (95) @WSN (153) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (?)
PIT @MIL (84) @CHC (122) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows Andrew Heaney (x2)
SDP @SFG (162) @LAD (59) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish (@SFG), Michael King, Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes, Darvish (@LAD)
SEA @BAL (66) @NYM (140) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo Logan Evans
SFG SDP (122) TBR (180) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Kai-Wei Teng
STL COL (142) NYY (108) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante
TBR @ATH (23) @SFG (162) Ryan Pepiot (@SFG) Pepiot (@ATH), Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX ARI (98) @TOR (41) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR CHC (84) TEX (126) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer
WSN @KCR (122) PHI (86) Cade Cavalli (@KCR), Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin