Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less. (I won’t include this section until we’re a few weeks into the regular season.)
The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Garrett Mitchell has had a terrible time staying on the field, which in turn has affected his ability to progress in his development. He’s missed more than 400 games over the last three years thanks to a shoulder injury in 2023, a fractured finger in ‘24, and an oblique strain in ‘25. He’s healthy now, and currently raking for the Brewers to start the season. He’s collected multiple hits in three games already and has four extra-base hits in eight games (seven starts). Many of his underlying peripherals look promising too; his hard hit and barrel rates are well above his career norms and his walk rate is up nearly six points.
I’d caution you to pump the brakes a bit. Mitchell has always struggled with contact issues — his career strikeout rate is 34% — and it doesn’t seem like he’s solved that problem despite the improvement in contact quality. So far this year, he’s chasing more than ever, swinging less frequently, and making contact at just a 63.3% rate. Sure, the contact that he has made has been loud, but his plate approach just isn’t sustainable at this rate.
It’s all super small samples right now, and it’s very possible Mitchell will be able to figure out his contact rate issues. With the improvement in contact quality he’s shown, that would probably lead to a pretty significant breakout. I don’t think he’s there yet, and you might be stuck with paying for a hot start to the season without the foundation to back up the results.
Unlike Mitchell, Liam Hicks already had a solid plate approach established but simply lacked the ability to make authoritative contact. Last year, Hicks ranked in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and the 98th percentile in chase rate, leading to a solid 14.4% strikeout rate and a 11.0% walk rate. Unfortunately, his hard hit rate was 16th worst in baseball and his EV90 was just a hair better at 17th worst.
This year, he’s reworked his swing to add a big leg kick and the results have been dramatically different. His swing speed is up two miles per hour, his hard hit and barrel rates are significantly improved, and his approach looks just as solid as it did last year — he hasn’t whiffed a single time in eight games! The results speak for themselves; he’s blasted three home runs already and is currently sporting a 214 wRC+ with just a .238 BABIP and a .495 expected wOBA. It really seems like the changes he made to his swing have unlocked a new ceiling for him.
What makes Hicks even more exciting from a fantasy standpoint is that he’s eligible at catcher and he’s picking up playing time at first base when he’s not behind the plate. The one thing to monitor is his platoon usage; he’s sat against four of the five left-handed starters the Marlins have faced so far.
James Tibbs III is getting some attention because he blasted seven home runs in his first nine games at Triple-A this year. He bounced through three organizations last year — he was included in the Rafael Devers trade in June and then in the Dustin May trade in July — and finally landed with the Dodgers to close out the year. As the results indicate, Tibbs has monstrous power from the left side and a pretty good plate approach to support the raw power. His issue as a prospect — and the reason why he was flipped twice in the span of two months — is that he doesn’t really have a defensive home. He’s been used in right field and at first base after joining Los Angeles’s farm system, and it’s likely he’ll make his way to the majors as a bat-first, platoon outfielder. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have a pretty crowded big league roster, particularly at the positions best suited for a player like Tibbs. Yes, he’s currently raking in the minors, but the path to a major league debut is pretty murky right now.
It’s hard to notice beneath his ugly season stat line, but Bryce Elder actually finished 2025 on a hot streak. Over his final seven outings last year, he ran a 2.82 ERA and a 3.30 FIP, backed by a fantastic 18.6% K-BB%. The key to his success in those final outings down the stretch was a fastball that had a little extra oomph behind it and a slider that had a few extra inches of sink to it.
Fast forward to this year and he’s continued his run of success with two excellent starts. His fastball velocity has fallen back towards his career norms, but his approach and pitch mix look a little different. Adding a cutter to his pitch mix was actually Greg Maddux’s idea — maybe Elder’s improvement this year can be traced back to his conversations with the Hall of Famer back in 2024 — and he’s used the new pitch to attack left-handed batters. That’s allowed him to cut back on the usage of his sinker, and he’s now throwing his slider as his primary pitch. That breaking ball still features the additional vertical movement he added late last year and the pitch has limited batters to a .116 expected wOBA so far. Elder still has excellent command of his repertoire, though Stuff+ isn’t necessarily enamoured with his arsenal despite the tweaks. He isn’t a guy who is going to overpower batters with raw stuff anyway, and he was an All-Star back in 2023, so there’s at least some history of success with his approach.
With starting pitching always difficult to find, I’m interested in seeing if Elder has actually taken a significant step forward with all these changes to his mix and pitch characteristics. He’ll get plenty of runway to prove himself with all the injuries in Atlanta’s starting rotation.
Like many of you, I fantasy baseball at multiple sites (Ottoneu primarily, but also FanTrax, CBS, and ESPN) and so I find myself navigating leaderboards at multiple sites. Kind of.
Yes, I do use the leaderboards at those other sites to find players, but that’s mostly out of laziness. When I have the time and the desire, my preferred way to find free agents and evaluate players is to come back to FanGraphs and use our player pages and leaderboards. CBS can tell me what a guy’s OBP is over the last 30 days; but it can’t tell me what has changed to drive that newfound on-base talent. So I identify free agents at one place, dig into them back here, and then head back to the other place to make FAAB bids or waiver claims.
The integration between Ottoneu and FanGraphs is one of the best and yet most underutilized aspects of the Ottoneu platform. And there are some little tricks you can use to make them even more powerful.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
They say necessity is the mother of invention. And they are right. But you know what else is the mother of invention? People saying seemingly weird things and then stopping and thinking, “Wait, maybe this is something!”
That’s where the latest Ottoneu innovation came from, and it’s a fun one. During the heat of draft season, when we run out of things to talk about other than the 10,000th debate over Edgar Quero’s auction value, a discussion about slow auctions (the 10,000th of those, too) resulted in people to start making outlandish suggestions about how to run drafts. And then Ottoneu creator Niv Shah commented:
What if players were randomly distributed?
He immediately got an “I would sign up for that” response. I half-joked, “Randomly assigned players with randomly assigned salaries.”
“Error bars around last 10 salary,” Niv replied. “So some variance, but generally market.”
And from that “a random league” was born. And while this sounds like a gimmick there is real interest in it and real value to it (which you can see from that thread). Niv and I will be co-managing a team in that league and I want to talk about a) why I think this is not just an interesting experiment, but a useful concept and b) what Niv and I need to do as managers of our randomly created team.
Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less. (I won’t include this section until we’re a few weeks into the regular season.)
The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Emerson Hancock threw the best start of his career to open the 2026 season, blanking the Guardians over six hitless innings while setting a career high for strikeouts with nine. Despite being the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft and working his way through Seattle’s vaunted pitching development pipeline, Hancock has struggled across parts of three seasons in the big leagues. Coming into this season, his career FIP was sitting over five with just a 15.6% strikeout rate.
Hancock had a pretty good spring training as he worked on honing his pitch mix; he struck out 21 across 15 innings of work in Arizona. The improvements were evident in his performance on Sunday evening. The biggest difference for him was a four-seamer that featured nearly three inches of added IVB and a sweeper that featured more than an inch and a half of added horizontal break. We don’t have arm angle data yet in this young season, but I suspect that the new movement profile on Hancock’s pitches is thanks to a slightly lower arm slot. He’s lowered his arm angle pretty significantly over the last two years and his release height was a few inches lower in his start on Sunday.
The issue with Hancock is opportunity. He’s getting this shot in the starting rotation because Bryce Miller started the year on the IL with an oblique injury which will keep him sidelined into May. Of course, Hancock made 16 starts last year because four of the five Mariners’ starters spent time on the IL during the season. Hancock looks like he’s finally made the adjustments he needed to to become a successful big league pitcher, and for now, he’ll have a spot in Seattle’s rotation to prove that he can stick.
The first save of the season for the Twins went to Cole Sands on Saturday. He walked one and struck out two en route to closing out a 3-1 win over the Orioles. The ninth inning picture in Minnesota was very unclear this offseason and Sands was one of the primary candidates to pick up saves alongside Taylor Rogers and Justin Topa.
Like I said in this column last week, you don’t have to go chasing saves in Ottoneu leagues (non-5×5 leagues, anyway) which means we’re free to evaluate relief pitchers on their skills rather than their role. For Sands, the 29.1% strikeout rate he ran in 2024 definitely looks like the outlier; the 21.4% mark matched what he ran in 2023 and it was a few points lower than that in his debut year in ‘22. He’s got solid command but doesn’t have the overpowering stuff you’d normally see from a high-leverage reliever. I’m not sure there’s anyone better in the Twins bullpen right now, so Sands could definitely run away with the ninth inning job early this season.
The big story for Randy Vásquez this spring was a huge jump in velocity. We saw the effects of that extra oomph in his first start against the Tigers on Saturday; six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. His fastball averaged 95.0 mph after sitting around 93.5 mph last year, and his sinker, curveball, sweeper, and changeup all saw similar jumps in velocity as well. The only pitch that wasn’t thrown harder was his cutter and that pitch had a completely different movement profile. It was a bit flatter with a couple of inches of added horizontal movement and Vásquez earned three whiffs on seven swings against that pitch (a 43% whiff rate). I’m also encouraged by the added velocity on his breaking balls; he earned a combined four whiffs off his curveball and sweeper.
The extra velocity is great to see, but batters will adjust to the added heat on his fastball. I’m interested to see if his breaking balls have turned into swing-and-miss weapons and if the cutter is going to be more effective now that it’s acting more like a hard slider. We could be witnessing a pretty significant step forward from Vásquez but you might want to wait a week to see if he can prove it against a tough Red Sox lineup this weekend. If you have to make a bid now, bid conservatively and be cautious in using him against Boston.
Everything I said about Sands and high-leverage opportunities above could be copied and pasted here for Jordan Romano. At least with Romano, you have the long history of success in the ninth inning earlier in his career. Injuries derailed his career back in 2024 and he was pretty terrible in 2025 for the Phillies. His fastball velocity is actually a tick lower than it was last year at just 94.6 mph. It’s really early, but that isn’t encouraging. What is encouraging is the amount of carry he’s getting on his heater. The pitch is seeing nearly two inches of added IVB this year and a lot less armside movement. His release height is a few inches higher which seems to have given his four-seamer much purer backspin.
The Angels signed a bunch of veteran relievers this offseason — including Romano, Kirby Yates, and Drew Pomeranz — and that trio should be in the mix for saves until Ben Joyce returns from the IL. If Romano has truly turned back time and figured out how to make his fastball more effective despite his reduced velocity, he could be a solid pick up. The down tick in velocity worries me, however, and I’d want to wait to see if he’s really back to his old self before chasing him.
Luke Raley blasted home runs in three straight games to start the season, a very good sign for his health. An April oblique injury shelved Raley for two months last year and his swing was never right even after returning during the second half of the season. It’s pretty easy to diagnose what the underlying problem was. Even though his contact quality stayed relatively stable, his swing speed dropped from 75.0 mph to 73.8 mph after his injury. Through four games this year — a small sample to be sure — his swing speed is back up to 74.3 mph.
If you remember his breakout season in 2023 or his equally fantastic follow up in ‘24, you know that Raley can be a solid contributor in leagues with deep rosters like Ottoneu. The Mariners will utilize him in a pretty strict platoon so he won’t provide everyday at-bats for your fantasy team. When he’s in the lineup, he’s been productive, and it looks like his swing is back to normal after last year’s disaster.
With the first games underway, we are going to be flooded with new information. All the spring lineup speculation will give way to actual lineups. The dream that someone might not be stuck in a platoon will die. The hope that a player’s newfound spring plate discipline is a game changer will be dashed. And before too long, you will learn where your roster is deep enough to withstand those losses, plus injuries, and where you aren’t.
You will also potentially have some open roster spots. Maybe you roster Justin Steele and now he is on the 60-day IL. Maybe one of those guys you were dreaming on turns into a cut by April. The good news is, sudden roster needs and suddenly available roster spots go together like a hot dog and a beer – the existence of the former means you probably need the latter, and the latter is just so much better when you pair it with the former.
So let’s try to find readily available players to fill those needs on your open roster. Here is one guy at each position who is currently <50% rostered in Ottoneu who you can go out and pick up if you find yourself in need.N
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on April 5, which means you have 12 days to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very long window to figure out which starters to use over the next week and half, and you may want to sit some of the riskier pitchers on your roster because you’ll have so many options on the table. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.
Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less. (I won’t include this section until we’re a few weeks into the regular season.)
The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
This weekend is the last weekend before Opening Day on March 25 which means it’s the biggest weekend for fantasy baseball drafting of the year. If you’ve got an Ottoneu auction draft coming up, you’ve probably already done the work to identify your team’s needs and the biggest targets in the draft. But what happens at the end of the draft when you’ve spent almost all of your salary cap and you’re looking for high-upside players to fill out your roster? That $1 zone is one of my favorite phases of the auction — diving for gold amidst a sea of all the leftover players. To help identify some of those late auction targets, here are 10 players — two from each position group (C, CI, MI, OF, SP) — whose current average auction price is less than $2. And if you’ve already completed your draft this year, you can treat this article as a list of interesting early waiver wire adds before the season gets underway.
