Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Reminder: the trade deadline falls in the middle of next week. Be prepared for some pitching chaos as teams swap starters and realign their rotations following the flurry of activity at the deadline.
Also, the August 2 game between the Braves and Reds is the MLB Speedway Classic. I honestly have no idea how the temporary field constructed at Bristol Motor Speedway will play. These are the proposed field dimensions: 330 feet down each of the foul lines, 400 feet to center field, 375 feet to the right-field alley and 384 feet to the left-field alley. I’d probably avoid starting either pitcher in that game which creates a difficult choice for what to do about Chase Burns.
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Note: due to the All-Star break, the Week 17 Ottoneu matchup runs for 10 days from July 18–27. If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, the number of starts doesn’t change even with the additional days. That means you’ll have a lot more starts to pick from to hit your cap — you’ll want to be extra judicious when picking your starters this week. I’ve separated this weekend’s games from next week’s into two tables below for a little more clarity.
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:
Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Here are eight starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.
Whether or not you believe in Michael Soroka’s resurgence or not boils down to how sustainable you think his home run rate is. He’s currently allowing a 1.52 HR/9 and 15.4% HR/FB, both of which aren’t out of the norm for his career. Under the surface, you’ll notice that he currently possesses a 3.75 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, and 3.04 xERA, all of which are well below his 4.70 ERA and 4.33 FIP. He’s allowed just nine barrels all season long, is sporting an above average groundball rate, and the highest strikeout rate of his career. Almost all the damage has come against his four-seam fastball and the underlying performance of that pitch was slightly better in June (.304 xwOBA) than it had been during the first two months of the season (.347 xwOBA). I’m willing to bet that his results on the field will start to look a lot more like his peripherals over the next few months.
Eduardo Rodriguez was one of my favorite preseason sleeper picks — I love a veteran pitcher with a recent history of success because they’re so often undervalued, particularly in Ottoneu. It’s been an up-and-down season for Rodriguez; he had a 2.81 FIP through his first five starts, completely fell apart over his next four with 24 runs allowed in 16 innings, and then hit the IL with a minor shoulder injury. He returned at the beginning of June and has allowed just 7 runs in five starts with an excellent 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The ongoing health of his shoulder is a concern, but this version of Rodriguez over the last month has been a pretty useful starter.
There are three Orioles starters in the table above so I’ll tackle them all here. Charlie Morton has rebounded quite nicely from his miserable start to the season; since rejoining the starting rotation on May 26, he’s posted a 2.90 ERA and a 2.47 FIP across six starts. His start this week was pushed back to Friday thanks to some minor elbow inflammation, so that’s definitely something to monitor. Trevor Rogers has also looked solid since being recalled on June 18, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 3.41 FIP across three starts. Injuries had absolutely derailed his career but he looks healthy now and maybe he can regain some of the magic from his 2021 breakout with the Marlins. As for Dean Kremer, he’s on a nice little run of starts — a 2.61 ERA and a matching 2.60 FIP across his last seven outings. The only thing I can spot in his profile is a sharp increase in the number of splitters he’s throwing. It’s his best pitch so it’s nice to see the results follow.
I featured Adrian Houser in this column a month ago at the start of June and he’s continued to put up solid numbers for the White Sox since then. I noted that his changeup looked like it was fueling a lot of his success this year — that pitch still has a 42.3% whiff rate — but the results on his curveball have also significantly improved. That gives him two excellent secondary pitches to pair off of his bowling ball sinker.
With seven starters currently on the IL, the Dodgers’ rotation has been in shambles for most of the season. Of all the pitchers they’ve churned through, Justin Wrobleski looks like the one who is going to manage to stick around. He’s allowed just four runs across his last three outings with an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball’s 32.5% whiff rate sits in the 94th percentile for that pitch type and it’s a big reason why he’s been able to wrack up the strikeouts. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: the Dodgers have either used Wrobleski as a piggybacked bulk reliever or used an opener in front of him. That means you’ll need to pay attention to which day’s he might be scheduled to pitch and where you place him in your lineup. Head-to-head players will get an additional bonus for rostering him since his outings won’t count against your weekly games started cap — assuming the Dodgers continue to use him as a bulk reliever rather than a traditional starter.
The reason why Stephen Kolek appears in the table above is because his groundball rate is in the 85th percentile among starters with at least 60 innings pitched this year and his home run rate is in the 78th percentile. He doesn’t strike out that many and his walk rate is merely average. If you’re rostering him, you’re banking on those two skills carrying most of his value. The first should be fine but the second could be particularly volatile as the weather warms up.
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:
Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
