Archive for NFBC

Big Kid Adds (Week 13)


While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Casey Schmitt (9): I misread the situation with Schmitt. With Matt Chapman out, he starts every game at third base. I didn’t see much long-term sustainability, but I ignored Tyler Fitzgerald’s struggles, which got him demoted to AAA. Once Chapman returns, I expect Schmitt (a plus defender) to slide over to second base.

In 108 PA so far this season, Schmitt is batting .284/.364/.453 with 4 HR. The biggest difference for the 26-year-old compared to previous seasons is his .359 BABIP (.259 from ’23 to ’24). He’s hitting the ball harder with his avgEV up 2 mph and his HardHit% up 13% points. He’s trading off some Contact rate (76% to 73%) for the additional power.

Projections aren’t buying the higher BABIP and see a .240 AVG to .250 AVG going forward.

Giancarlo Stanton (8): With Stanton’s home run potential, the demand was going to be high. In the nine games since being recalled, Stanton, started in six of them as the designated hitter, but not three in a row.

In 25 PA so far, he’s batting .304/.360/.348 with a 36% K% (Contact% down from 68% to 65%), .500 BABIP, and 64% GB%. Additionally, his average bat speed is down from 81.2 mph last year to 79.7 mph this season.

He should be held for another week or so to see where his talent stabilizes.

Isaac Collins (8): The 27-year-old started in 10 of the last 11 games while batting .262/.366/.403 with 4 HR and 8 SB. The only stat that could be high is his .337 BABIP. Projections say it should be a .300 BABIP.

Even with a lower batting average, he’s still a solid add based on the playing time and talent.

Gary Sánchez (8): With several catchers getting hurt, Sánchez was one of the few available options. He’s never going to provide speed (career 6 SB) or batting average (career .224 AVG), but hit a decent number of homers.

Brady House (6): Nine straight starts at third base, but not much else (56 wRC+). I’m not sure how he’ll be fantasy relevant. He seems to be below league average in every trait.

Michael Toglia (5): He has started eight straight games since being recalled from AAA. Over those games, he’s batting .303/.343/.667 with 3 HR in 35 PA. No breakout is occurring with Toglia experiencing two better eight-game stretches last season.

The hope is that the team remembers this hot streak and allows him to keep starting.

David Hamilton (5): Hamilton can steal bases (12 SB in 112 PA), but little else (30 wRC+). He should hold down the job until Alex Bregman returns after the All-Star break.

When Bregman returns, Marcelo Mayer (4 HR, 91 wRC+) should move over and play second base.

Pedro Pagés (5): Again, with several catchers getting hurt, the bottom of the barrel was being scraped for options. Pagés provides some power (5 HR in 201 PA) but nothing else (.222 AVG, 0 SB).

Starters

Emmet Sheehan (10): The 25-year-old was great in his debut (4 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER). After the start, the team demoted him to AAA. It’s not obvious when he’ll return. Justin Wrobleski now throws strikes (2.5 BB/9) with ERA estimators in the mid-3.00 range.

Sheehan should be worth an add if a team can handle having him take up a roster spot.

Didier Fuentes (7): Before the 20-year-old righty made his Wednesday start, his stock was higher. The results from that first start were respectable (5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 6 H, and 4 ER), but his STUPH metrics are off the charts.

Then the Wednesday start happened (3 IP, 6 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 2 HR). With the disaster, TheBot’s ERA estimator still values him as a 3.33 ERA talent. The Stuff+ values haven’t updated, but he had a 116 Pitching+ pointing to a 3.04 talent.

He attacks batters with his fastball (96 mph, 10% SwStr%), slider, and curve. The results on the slider and curve are worse than his fastball, but the STUPH metrics love both. It’s hard to nail down his value.

One issue is that he’s getting annihilated the second time through the order, likely because his secondary pitches aren’t working.

TTO: K-BB%, BABIP, xFIP, ERA
1st: 22%, .308, 3.26, 4.15
2nd: -6%, .500, 8.63, 27.00

I added him in several leagues, but wasn’t brave enough to start (thank the Spaghetti Monster). It’ll be interesting to see how the team handles him going forward.

Ryan Bergert (7): Most likely added for his start against the Nationals on Tuesday, where he rewarded them with 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, and 5 H in 3 IP.

Before the start, he was about as lucky as it could get with .233 BABIP, 0.7 HR/9, and 82% LOB%. For me, his 4.0 BB/9 would have been a sign to stay away, especially with his ERA estimators (4.73 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA) and STUPH values (4.22 botERA, 4.45 Pitching+ ERA) pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA arm.

Janson Junk (6): Junk was limited in how deep he went into games until the last outing (79 pitches). So far this season, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA (2.77 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.01 WHIP.

He’s been pitching backwards by throwing his slider (46% usage, 15% SwStr%) more than any other pitch. His four-seam has been solid with a 10% SwStr%.

The key for him to keep his value going forward is to limit the walks. He has just two in 27 IP. I expect some regression, but not a ton. His 29% Ball% points to 1.5 BB/9.

Logan Allen로건 (6): For me, his 1.50 WHIP (4.0 BB/9) is unrosterable. It does as much ratio damage as a 5.52 ERA. Fantasy managers added him for his two-step versus Toronto and St. Louis. In the first start, Allen was fine with 4 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 8 H in 5.2 IP. We’ll see how the second start goes.

Trevor Rogers (5): After struggling for several seasons to find the strike zone (4.1 BB/9, 1.56 WHIP last season), the 27-year-old is much improved with a 1.6 BB/9 (34% Ball, 2.5 equiv BB/9) so far this season. Additionally, his fastball velocity increased 2 mph (91.7 mph to 93.7 mph). Finally, he’s brought down the usage (24% to 17%) of this horrible sinker (37 botOvr, 78 Pitching+, 2% SwStr%).

The 1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP will regress (0.0 HR/9, .213 BABIP, 92% LOB%), but some signs indicate him being a high 3.00 ERA talent.

Justin Wrobleski (6): While a 63% LOB% has him with a 4.91 ERA, he’s been solid with a 3.23 xFIP and 4.32 botERA (difference likely from opponent quality). He has a 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 48% GB%. Starters with better numbers in all three categories (min 20 IP) are:

Nathan Eovaldi
Brandon Walter
Max Fried
Logan Webb

He should continue to get chances as long as he gets similar results.

Eric Lauer 라우어 (5): The .222 BABIP won’t last, but even with some regression, signs point to him being a streamable 4.00 ERA talent.

Jack Kochanowicz (5): Some brave souls are running out the 24-year-old righty for his two-step against Boston and Washington. He struggled in his first start with 1 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 6 H in 5.0 IP.

There is an argument that Kochanowicz is the worst of the league’s 73 qualified starters. Here is how he ranks in various categories.

Stat: Rank
K-BB%: 70th
ERA: 71st
WHIP: 73rd
xFIP: 65th

I think he was added because a website ranked him as the 89th best pitcher this week. In 15-teamers, 135 pitchers are rostered so deep, the 89th (of 394) guy seems reasonable. The issue is that those values are based on his production just this week. The higher chance for Strikeouts and Wins pushes him (and the other two-start guys) higher than they should be. Using season-long valuations, his projected ERA and WHIP do so much damage; he’s the 370th-ranked pitcher and will be a net negative for the week (usually 50 pitchers project as such).

Relievers

Orion Kerkering (8): In the week before FAAB ran, Kerkering got two Saves and looks to be sharing the closer’s role and possibly could be the closer.

Chris Martin (7): Martin is Texas’s best reliever, and he got a Save on Saturday. Then on Tuesday, he was brought in for the seventh inning when he faced three batters and allowed three home runs. Who knows his role.

Grant Taylor (6): The 23-year-old righty got the Save on Sunday, so the hope was that he’s now the White Sox’s closer. On Wednesday, he came in the seventh inning and threw two innings, getting a Hold. He’s for sure being used in high-leverage situations.

He attacks batters with a 99-mph fastball (23% SwStr%) and a cutter and curve. The STUPH models love the two secondaries, but the results haven’t been the best on them. He hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss on the curve yet.

 

Players Added in NFBC High-Stakes Leagues
Name Number of Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Emmet Sheehan 10 63 7
Casey Schmitt 9 23 6
Orion Kerkering 8 74 22
Giancarlo Stanton 8 54 14
Isaac Collins 8 29 6
Gary Sanchez 8 9 1
Didier Fuentes 7 28 1
Chris Martin 7 22 4
Ryan Bergert 7 14 1
Janson Junk 6 35 3
Justin Wrobleski 6 33 3
Brady House 6 24 8
Grant Taylor 6 17 2
Logan Allen 6 13 2
Michael Toglia 5 107 25
David Hamilton 5 17 4
Trevor Rogers 5 13 2
Eric Lauer 5 11 3
Pedro Pages 5 10 1
Jack Kochanowicz 5 9 4
Mike Yastrzemski 4 39 8
Jacob Lopez 4 38 7
Seth Halvorsen 4 18 5
Nick Gonzales 4 18 4
Luis Torrens 4 17 3
Joey Ortiz 4 16 2
Pavin Smith 4 15 5
Colt Keith 4 13 8
Joey Bart 4 11 2
Dominic Canzone 4 11 7
Mauricio Dubon 4 9 2
Richard Fitts 4 8 2
Austin Wynns 4 1 1

Beat the Shift Podcast – Overall Episode w/ Marc Winokur

The Overall episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

League Updates

  • GDD
    • Trade!
  • NFBC
    • 1st half sucesss

Strategy Section

  • NFBC Overall Contests
    • When should you alter your focus from the single league contest to playing for an overall contest title?
      • Does the size of your lead matter?
      • Does format matter – FAAB vs. non-FAAB?
    • Do you alter draft strategy at all due to the overall component of NFBC contests?
  • The 2025 fantasy basbeall winning strategy to date
  • Are Ohtani/Judge auction bids (i.e. high priced, but high returning players) efficient?

ATC Half Season

  • Hits and Misses
    • Luis Arraez value
    • The profitable range of the pre-season auction market for hitters and pitchers

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

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Big Kid Adds (Week 12)

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – NFBC Episode w/ Zack Waxman

The 2nd Month episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Zack Waxman

Draft Champions Podcast

Strategy Section

  • NFBC
    • Power players
    • Drafting early vs. drafting late
    • The use of projections
    • ADP
    • Jacob deGrom’s innings for 2025
  • Waiver Wire / FAAB
    • General Strategy
    • Putting in the time
    • What to tackle first / how best to use your time?
    • Track remaining FAAB?
    • Allocate FAAB weekly?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 9)

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Note: Sorry for missing last week. Life just got in the way.

Batters

Marcelo Mayer (9): While one of the top prospects in the game (ranked 31st overall here at FanGraphs, 15 at Baseball America), I think Mayer is a good prospect and could help some fantasy teams.  He doesn’t project to be a difference-maker.

First, here are the batters with similar Steamer600 projections.

Now, Mayer was a top prospect, so maybe he should only be compared to other top prospects. To start the season, Baseball America gave him a ranking of 15 overall. Knowing Mayer posted an .818 OPS in AAA over 193 PA, I found historical comps using the following variables.
  • Between 100 and 300 PA in AAA
  • An >= .800 OPS in AAA
  • Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25
Here are the results:
Marcelo Mayer Comps Using AAA Stats and Baseball America’s Top-100 Ranking
Name Age Season PA Rank PA OPS AVG HR SB
Andy LaRoche 22 2006 19 115 .677 .226 1 2
Buster Posey 22 2009 7 443 .862 .305 18 0
Desmond Jennings 22 2009 6 24 .625 .190 0 2
Mike Moustakas 21 2010 9 365 .675 .263 5 2
George Springer 23 2013 18 345 .804 .231 20 5
Jorge Soler 22 2014 12 404 .723 .262 10 3
Keibert Ruiz 22 2021 11 433 .673 .251 7 6
Brendan Rodgers 22 2019 23 21 .238 .095 0 0
Nick Senzel 23 2018 10 414 .742 .256 12 14
Gabriel Moreno 22 2022 12 380 .747 .284 7 6
Noelvi Marte 21 2023 23 242 .549 .210 4 9
Francisco Alvarez 20 2022 9 423 .721 .209 25 2
Pete Crow-Armstrong 21 2023 18 410 .670 .237 10 27
Coby Mayo 21 2023 25 46 .293 .098 0 0
Average 21.7 14.4 290 .643 .223 8.5 5.6
Median 22 12 373 .676 .234 7 2.5
HR/600 SB/600
17.6 11.5
In AAA, between 100 and 300 PA and >= 800 OPS
A Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25 (Mayer = 15)

The numbers are close, with some better in one and the other.

Marcelo Mayer Estimated Production
System HR SB AVG OPS
BA Rank & AAA 17.6 11.5 .234 .643
Steamer600 14 7 .245 .693
Average 15.8 9.3 .240 .668

Some 2024 hitters who posted similar results were Jake Cronenworth (17 HR, 5 SB, .241 AVG), Jonathan India (15, 13, .248), and Matt Vierling (16, 6, .257). Vierling (next profile) was added with an average bid of $18.1.

Mayer seems like a reasonable add, just not for the $200+.

Matt Vierling (7): Two starts in three games since coming off the IL. There is no way to know how this add will play out. Vierling could still be hurt. He may not play enough to be fantasy relevant. Or he could have a career year. These managers rostered him now and will evaluate him next week.

Mike Tauchman (7): Platoon bat with just six starts this season (28 PA, .784 OPS). Over his career, he has a 10 HR and 11 SB pace over 162 games. It’s not clear if he’ll he’s good enough to demand full-time at-bats.

Matt Wallner (6): If a team needed power, they might have focused to add Wallner, who has 30 HR in 647 career PA. A 25 HR power source doesn’t just appear on the wire, so Wallner needed to be targeted. The only issue could be if he plays every game with the team getting “healthy”.

Andrew Benintendi (6): He has been a solid accumulator when healthy with 5 HR.

Evan Carter (6): I’m not sure about why Carter was added. He only starts against lefties. He’s been horrible the past two seasons (.616 OPS). He can’t stay healthy. Managers must be dreaming of a continuation of .412 BABIP from 2023.

Robert Hassell III (6): After hitting .288/.337/.405 with 9 SB in AAA, he’s now hitting .143/.143/.143 with 1 SB in four straight starts in centerfield batting seventh or ninth. Pitchers might have his number by not throwing him many fastballs (40% seen) and 29% K% (19% in AAA). Monitor to see if he can handle major league pitching.

Kody Clemens (5): Great since joining the Twins by hitting .327/.411/.714 with 4 HR in 57. A couple of factors hold down his value. First, he doesn’t face lefties, so he needs to be actively managed. Second, once his .429 BABIP normalizes, his batting average could tank with his 30% K%.

Abraham Toro (5): Strong-side platoon bat with six righties on the schedule this week. Acceptable so far by batting .262/.262/.548 with 3 HR.

Angel Martínez (5): Eight starts in the last 10 games while hitting .271/.294/.388 with 2 HR and 4 SB on the season. One issue will be his playing time with Lane Thomas off the IL.

Lenyn Sosa (5): A fine bench bat (4 HR, .277 AVG) for these deeper formats.

Starters

Jacob Lopez (7): This is Lopez’s third promotion to the majors, where he has a combined 3.93 ERA (5.46 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP (4.2 BB/9), and 8.1 K/9. Lopez has two major issues that could cause him to struggle in the majors. First, he walks too many batters with his 39.5% Ball%, pointing to a 4.6 BB/9. His 1.57 WHIP is doing as much damage as a 5.93 ERA.

It’s tough to find many positives. A 91-mph fastball already puts him behind the eight ball. Both of our STUPH models grade his pitches below average. BotERA values him as a 5.51 ERA talent. I’m unable to see the demand.

Ryan Yarbrough (7): Since moving to the rotation, the 33-year-old has a 2.25 ERA (3.56 xFIP), 0.85 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. One adjustment points to his success, he added a plus slider (18% SwStr%, 22% usage, 119 Stuff+). Add now and see if the results continue.

Kyle Harrison (6): Harrison was a tough call on whether to add him or not on Sunday. It seems that he’ll get a start against the Marlins but possibly head back to the bullpen once Verlander comes off the IL. Between starting and relieving, the 23-year-old has a 3.86 ERA (3.05 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. His four-seamer and curve have greater than a 16% SwStr%. A worthwhile addition.

Randy Vásquez (6): Going into this FAAB period, here is how struggled with adding Vásquez.

Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman.bsky.social) 2025-05-25T21:18:34.863Z

On Monday, he had his first start with the following stats: 3 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB, and no Win in 6.1 IP. Acceptable, but the hope was for the Win.

Mick Abel (5): Abel’s debut was great (6 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER), but he was demoted right after the start. I love the upside, but it’s unknown how long he’ll stay in the minors, especially with Andrew Painter finishing his rehab.

Mike Burrows (5): After pitching to a 2.51 ERA (3.81 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 in AAA, the 25-year-old struggled in his debut, allowing 4 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, and just 3 K in 5 IP. He attacked batters with a 94.5 mph fastball and three secondaries.

Keider Montero (5): Like Vásquez, Montero was a suspect talent (5.28 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.57 WHIP), but was scheduled for two winnable starts (vs SF, at KC). The gamble paid off so far with a Win in 5 IP with o ER, 3 K and 2 BB in the first start. His changeup was the only successful secondary.

Relievers

Daniel Palencia (11): Now the Cubs’ closer with three straight Saves to go along with his 9.2 K/9 and 1.93 ERA. Must add in all Save leagues.

Ronny Henriquez (8): Possibly elite closer with a 12.4 K/9 and 1.78 ERA (3.60 xFIP). It’d be nice to see the 4.6 BB/9 come down, but he’s now got the role.

Robert Garcia (7): With Luke Jackson struggling (5.17 ERA), Garcia got the team’s last Save and could move into the closer’s role.

Ben Casparius (7): The 26-year-old righty has been elite this season with a 2.94 ERA (2.87 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9. While he’s not in the Dodgers’ rotation, he could if more injuries happen. Right, the game’s best long reliever.

Jorge López (6): With Kyle Finnegan on the IL, López (6.00 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 K/9) is the default closer in Washington.

Players Added in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added High Winning Bid Low Winning Bid
Daniel Palencia 11 106 43
Marcelo Mayer 9 279 38
Ronny Henriquez 8 54 5
Matt Vierling 7 38 2
Robert Garcia 7 30 7
Ryan Yarbrough 7 27 3
Jacob Lopez 7 18 2
Ben Casparius 7 15 3
Mike Tauchman 7 11 4
Matt Wallner 6 146 14
Andrew Benintendi 6 59 1
Kyle Harrison 6 44 6
Evan Carter 6 37 4
Jorge Lopez 6 24 4
Robert Hassell III 6 22 2
Randy Vasquez 6 21 1
Mick Abel 5 71 4
Mike Burrows 5 32 14
Kody Clemens 5 28 5
Abraham Toro 5 23 2
Angel Martinez 5 20 2
Lenyn Sosa 5 16 5
Keider Montero 5 9 1
Edward Cabrera 4 51 25
Carlos Narvaez 4 38 10
Caleb Durbin 4 37 17
Stephen Kolek 4 34 1
Tommy Kahnle 4 30 12
Charlie Morton 4 23 5
Joshua Palacios 4 11 2
Jake Bauers 4 5 5

Big Kid Adds (Week 7)

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Justin Mason’s NFBC Main Event Livestream

Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1800 NFBC Main Event team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool.

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Justin Mason’s NFBC Auction Championship Livestream #2

Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1600 NFBC Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here

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Starting Pitchers Rising in NFBC Main Event Drafts

David Richard-Imagn Images

It’s Main Event season!! For the unaware, the Main Event is the high-stakes marquee contest over at the NFBC where everyone competes in 15-team leagues but also in one giant 700+ team league against everyone. If you want to get into the NFBC but don’t quite want to jump into the Main just yet, they have leagues at all sorts of price points to get started. This is not an ad, but I’m a huge fan of the NFBC so I’m happy to gas them up to anyone looking to get into the mix!

Anyway, with the Mains rolling I wanted to take a look at who’s moving up so far. Starting pitching is notoriously priced up in Main Events as teams don’t want to be left short on the mound and as injuries pile up in spring, a lot of managers start to move their favorite SPs up the board. I took a look at the first 3 Main Events and compared SP prices to the Rotowire Online Championship leagues which is a 12-team format that functions similarly to the Main. It’s at a lower price point so there are far more teams, but it has that same overall component that makes these NFBC events so unique.

I broke things down by pick range instead of just looking at the biggest movers overall or else all 15 guys would’ve been from the later rounds. Without further ado, 15 significant SP risers through 3 Mains (there has been a 4th since I pulled the data, but I’d already made my charts and everything so I didn’t get it into the mix):

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Corner Infield Episode w/ Frank Stampfl

The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

  • 1st & 2nd Rounds
    • What should you accomplish in the 1st two rounds?
    • Do you need to draft a starting pitcher in the first few rounds of drafts?
    • Overvalued players
      • Should you draft catchers in the first two rounds?
      • Ohtani at 1.1 ?
    • Undervalued players
    • Players drafted outside the first two rounds, but should be drafted earlier.
    • The Top 3
      • Why Elly De La Cruz should and shouldn’t be considered to be drafted just outside the top 3.
  • The ATC Volatility Metrics
  • Corner Infield strategy
    • Player pool

ATC Undervalued Players

Injury Update

 

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