Archive for NFBC

Beat the Shift Podcast – Dog Days of Summer Episode w/ Sara Sanchez

The Dog Days of Summer episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

League Updates

Strategy Section

  • Dog Days of Summer (late August) Strategy
    • Riding the hot hand
    • How much should you be churning your roster?
    • Which categories should you focus on?
    • How to know when to drop currently injured players?
    • Does current fantasy standing matter for making decisions?
    • Does team MLB standing matter for picking up players?

Chicago Cubs

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Championship Episode w/ Mike Mager

The Auction Championship episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Mager

Strategy Section

  • NFBC Strategy
    • What sets the NFBC apart from others?
    • Key components to winning
    • Evaluating players BEFORE looking at projections
    • Which is more important – the draft or in-season play?
    • What goes into lineup setting?
    • How do you prevent overthinking decisions?
    • Are there certain category statistics that you need to solidify early in the year?
    • Are there certain category statistics that you can wait on and pick up in-season?
    • How does strategy change year to year?
    • Auction planning
    • Today’s game
      • Pitching strategy in today’s game
      • Are there sleepers anymore?
  • Waiver Wire / FAAB
    • Interaction with the current week’s lineup setting
    • Putting in the time
  • Fantasy partnership
    • What makes a successful fantasy partnership?
    • Splitting up tasks

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 18)


Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Jakob Marsee (11): Added for his playing time (Marlins’ centerfielder) and ability to steal bases (51 SB in ’24, 47 in ’25). An .833 BABIP and 29% BB% makes his current slash line look insane (.500/.647/1.167)

Tyler Locklear (10): I’m not sure Locklear is an improvement over other waiver wire first basemen. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If a manager is eyeing Curtis Mead, then maybe Locklear should be on their radar.

Eli White (9): The 31-year-old White has six straight starts with Acuna on the IL. White has been a fine injury replacement with 7 HR, 7 SB, and a .254 AVG in 222 PA. I wonder if most of his demand came from his two-homer race track game on Sunday.

Jonny DeLuca (8): For any Ray, dissecting the playing time is the most important factor. DeLuca has started in eight of 11 games since coming off the IL. He sat against three righties (started against five righties).

Over his three major league seasons, he has hit .236/.291/.353 (84 wRC+) with 8 HR and 23 SB in 463 PA. While the stolen bases would be helpful in fantasy, he needs to continue hitting and play every game to become fantasy-relevant.

Blake Perkins (7): The 28-year-old outfielder is in his third major league season. In 656 PA, he has 12 HR and 31 SB with a .235 AVG (similar to DeLuca). A speedster with non-zero power and some contact issues. Since Jackson Chourio got hurt, Perkins started five straight in centerfield.

For a player with his profile, he needs to play all the time to get the required Runs and RBI. Check in on his playing time once Chourio returns.

Joey Loperfido (6): Since being called up, the 26-year-old is batting .389/.436/.542 (.500 BABIP) with 3 HR and 1 SB in 79 PA. I found two changes from last year’s .614 OPS campaign. First, he’s increased his Contact% from 67% to 73%. Second, he cut his swinging-strike rate against sliders from 21% to 11%.

The Jays have noticed and started him in nine of the last 10 games. Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 10 SB, and a .240 AVG. Streaming option at best.

Brooks Lee (6): With Correa traded away, Lee has started every game at shortstop.  Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 6 SB, and a .240 AVG. Almost the same as Loperfido. Another streaming option.

Nolan Gorman (6): Gorman started in five of the last six games as he fills in for Nolan Arenado. Gorman has been a solid source of power (10 HR in 244 PA) but a drag in speed (1 SB) and a .224 AVG. Short-term fill-in.

Daniel Schneemann (6): The 28-year-old middle infielder has been on a hot streak ( .364/.378/.705 , 1 HR, 2 SB) since the break, driven by a .394 BABIP.

Casey Schmitt (6): Starts five games and then sits for one or two. Showing signs of 20 HR power (6 HR in 189 PA). Contact% and avgEV are at career highs. Good real-life hitter.

Warming Bernabel (5): Starting to cool down (in a 2 for 12 stretch), but still has a sexy triple slash line: .400/.415/.775 (.394 BABIP). He’s hacking at everything (1 BB in 41 PA), so pitchers aren’t giving him anything to hit. Regression comes, but when will his talent stabilize?

Abraham Toro (5): Ever since Mayer (wrist) went on the IL, Toro started all 11 games. The 28-year-old is another 15 HR and .250 AVG talent with no upside. A bench streamer at best.

Ty France (5): France went from starting most days in Minnesota to being an unrosterable part-time DH in Toronto.

Starters

Carson Whisenhunt (9): The 24-year-old lefty is showing no signs of being a major league pitcher. His 7% K%-BB% is not good. The four closest qualified pitchers are Bailey Falter, Mitchell Parker, Andre Pallante, and Jake Irvin.

His results, STUPH, and projections point to a high-4.00 ERA talent with a ratio-killing WHIP. I guess the matchup against Washington is enticing.

Jameson Taillon (6): Injury stash for a pitcher with a 4.44 ERA (4.30 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9.

Davis Martin (6): Martin’s opponents are decent for the next two weeks (at SEA, vs CLE, at KC). All season-long indicators (projections, STUPH, results) point to him being a low-4.00 ERA talent.

One issue, since coming off the IL (forearm), he’s lacked control with a 5.9 BB/9 and a 39% Ball% (equivalent of 4.2 BB/9). I understand teams need to take a chance, and this is a big one.

Logan Henderson (5): Finally back in the rotation with Misiorowski on the IL. The excitement has quelled a bit on Henderson with K%-BB% in AAA dropping from 25% to 17% between stints. Our two STUPH both think he’s the same pitcher. Maybe he got bored in AAA.

Aaron Civale (5): Since the break, he’s thrown three shutouts with a 10.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 50% GB% (2.45 xFIP).  The obvious improvement is that he’s attacking the strike zone. Before this stretch, he had a 3.8 BB/9. Additionally, he’s upped his curveball (12% SwStr%, highest among his pitches) usage from 17% to 24%.

His STUPH grades see an improvement.

STUPH: 1H, 2H
BotOverall: 39, 47
Pitching+: 91, 105

They point to a league-average pitcher, and that has some fantasy value.

Taj Bradley (5): Now in AAA, hopefully finding where the strikeouts went. Each season, his strikeouts have dropped from 11.1 K/9 to 10.0 K/9 to 7.7 K/9. And this season, he has a career-high 3.6 BB/9. I’m not sure what people are hoping for? He’s never been a league-average pitcher.

Tomoyuki Sugano (5): I’m always interested in why subpar pitchers are added. With Sugano, managers are likely chasing his next two starts  (vs ATH, vs SEA). He’s been horrible this season with a 4.42 ERA (4.64 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, and just a 6.0 K/9. Desperate teams could be better off with a well-placed middle reliever option.

Kai-Wei Teng (5): The 26-year-old righty struggled in his first MLB action this year, allowing 5 ER in 3 IP with 5 K, 3 BB, 1 HBP, and 4 H. His struggles center around walking too many batters. In his combined 14 MLB innings, he has a 6.9 BB/9. His 41% Ball% over that stretch is equivalent to 5.4 BB/9. Here are his last four minor league walk rates.

Season: BB/9
2022: 5.6
2023: 4.8
2024: 5.2
2025: 3.5

Teng has shown the ability to miss bats. Here is how his pitches performed in AAA.

Everything except his sinker is a legit swing-and-miss pitch.

To be fantasy-relevant, he needs to find the plate.

Relievers

Cole Sands (10), JoJo Romero (9), Calvin Faucher (8), Keegan Akin (7), Sean Newcomb (7), Victor Vodnik (6): This week’s reliever carousel has been covered in detail by every publication and podcast. I have nothing to add.

 

Most Added Player in NFBC High Stake Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Jakob Marsee 11 59 21
Cole Sands 10 71 8
Tyler Locklear 10 51 1
JoJo Romero 9 69 12
Carson Whisenhunt 9 32 1
Eli White 9 11 1
Calvin Faucher 8 40 17
Jonny DeLuca 8 9 2
Keegan Akin 7 36 2
Sean Newcomb 7 21 4
Blake Perkins 7 20 4
Joey Loperfido 6 42 6
Brooks Lee 6 37 7
Jameson Taillon 6 27 5
Nolan Gorman 6 27 4
Victor Vodnik 6 11 1
Daniel Schneemann 6 10 1
Davis Martin 6 8 2
Casey Schmitt 6 7 1
Warming Bernabel 5 203 8
Logan Henderson 5 51 22
Aaron Civale 5 22 5
Taj Bradley 5 21 1
Tomoyuki Sugano 5 12 2
Abraham Toro 5 5 1
Ty France 5 2 1
Kai-Wei Teng 5 2 1
Dennis Santana 4 71 1
Javier Baez 4 52 3
Joey Wentz 4 22 5
Alex Freeland 4 15 4
Phil Maton 4 11 1
Justin Wrobleski 4 10 3
Cal Quantrill 4 9 3
Ryan Bergert 4 9 1
Anthony DeSclafani 4 9 1
Freddy Fermin 4 8 1
Alek Thomas 4 7 2
Miles Mikolas 4 5 1

 


Big Kid Adds (Week 17)


Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Hitters

Colson Montgomery (9): His .257 AVG has come out of left field after struggling to hit for average for years. The biggest surprise has been him dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 24%. I’m not buying the lower strikeout rate since his swinging-strike rate jumped from 13.1% to 17.2%. Here are some comps to similar swinging-strike rates that point to a 30% K%.

Batters Similar to Colson Montgomery’s 17.2% SwStr%
Name PA SwStr% K% AVG
Hunter Goodman 387 17.4% 27.4% .277
Jacob Stallings 129 17.3% 31.0% .134
Michael Toglia 329 17.3% 38.3% .194
Travis d’Arnaud 170 17.1% 29.4% .226
Pete Crow-Armstrong 447 17.0% 23.3% .272
Will Benson 198 16.6% 28.3% .217
Average 277 17.1% 29.6% .220
2025, min 100 PA

Josh Jung (7): The 27-year-old came off the IL this past Monday (July 21st), so his adds were a week behind. He’s not lived up to his prospect hype and is not a fantasy difference maker (10 HR, 4 SB, .249 AVG). At least he’s healthy … for now.

Gabriel Arias (6): While not much of a fantasy contributor (.234/.294/.381, 7 HR, 4 SB), he is off the IL and back to playing every day.

Joc Pederson (6): Pederson crushes right-handed pitching. Nothing more. One concern is that all his power metrics are at multi-year lows. Maybe bench him for a week or two as he builds up his strength (broken hand).

Warming Bernabel (6): The 23-year-old third baseman is on a Kyren Paris-like hot start. In the majors so far, Bernabel is batting .389/.421/.833 with 2 HR in 19 PA. In AAA, he hit .301/.356/.450 with 8 HR and 5 SB. While those numbers look great, it’s just a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than the average AAA batter) once run environment is taken into account.

His number one trait is his ability to put the ball in play with a just a 12% K% in AAA and a 5% K% so far in the majors. He doesn’t have much power. His AAA 84.2 avgEV ranks 862nd among 972 batters in AAA. He pulled both his home runs right down the line.

For now, he’s an add and monitor.

Ryan Mountcastle (5): Some reports had Mountcastle possibly coming off the IL this week, but it seems to be another week for him.

He’s been crushing AAA so far (253 wRC+) with good EV numbers (97 mph avgEV, 112 maxEV). Once he returns, playing time will not be an issue with some of his teammates traded away.

Tommy Pham (5): The Pham demand comes from his weekend games in Colorado. He’s been playing (starting regularly since July 1st) and hitting (.302/.373/.488 in June) for weeks, but no one seemed to care. He’s not doing anything new. It’s just one of the hot stretches he’ll go on. Ed. note: He did also get a new contact Rx that helped his vision which is particularly important as he does have a degenerative eye issue called keratoconus. 

Coby Mayo (5): With several teammates likely to get traded (did happen), managers hoped Mayo (.225/.307/.382, 3 HR, 1 SB) would get more playing time. I’m just not sure Mayo is a good baseball player.

Starters

Troy Melton (11): So a 10.80 ERA can be ignored? While Melton gave up a ton of hits in his debut against the Pirates, he did strike out seven of them while walking two (3.28 xFIP). And on Monday, he went 7 IP with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER over 7 IP (3.36 xFIP). I had the unknown ranked as my fourth-highest free agent starter this past weekend, and that might have been too low.

He’s example #48452 on why to ignore ERA when evaluating pitchers. Hell, just look at his AAA numbers: 2.72 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 1.1b WHIP, 12.1 K/9. As for an arsenal, he has a 97-mph fastball (11% SwStr%), slider (23% SwStr%), sinker (75% GB%), cutter, curve, and splitter (14% SwStr%). Here are how the pitches did in AAA:

Ed. note: He did get moved to the bullpen after the deadline moves so now he’s the 6th SP. 

J.T. Ginn (9): Time to keep it simple with Ginn. His stats are

9.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
54% GB%

Pitchers who are better in all three categories this year:

None

The closest comp is Cristopher Sánchez (9.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 58% GB%). By just continuing to pitch like he has so far, Ginn will be comparable to the top pitchers in the game.

Luis Severino (6): Severino is in the middle of a nice stretch to add as a streamer. This week he faced Seattle (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 H) with a two-step lineup up next week at Washington and Baltimore.

Besides the decent stream, he has been better in July with a 3.81 ERA (3.42 xFIP) compared to a 5.09 ERA (4.76 xFIP) before that. The improvement is from more strikeouts and groundballs.

Stat: April to June, July
K%: 15%, 24%
FBv: 95.8, 96.8
Zone%: 54%, 56%
GB%: 39%, 51%

The only reasons I could find for the strikeout jump are increased velocity and more pitches in the strike zone. The more I write, the more I’m getting pissed that I didn’t emphasize him more this past weekend.

Justin Verlander (6): This add is almost entirely based on Verlander’s matchup against the Pirates this week (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) and two-step next week against the Pirates and Nationals.

He is showing no signs of improving, so I suspect Verlander will be dropped after the two-start week.

Joey Wentz (5): Like Verlander, Wentz was added for a decent two-start week. This week, he gets Kansas City (6 IP, 7 K, 0 ER, 3 BB) with two starts next week against the Brewers and Marlins.

Wentz is a career 5.59 ERA (4.74 xFIP) with no signs of improving this year (5.45 ERA, 4.47 xFIP). He’s been dropped by two other teams before joining the Braves. In 18 IP since joining the Braves, he has a 3.09 xFIP. With the Pirates, it was a 4.56 xFIP. A 7.95 xFIP with the Twins. The improvement he made was throwing more strikes.

Team: Ball%
PIT: 37%
MIN: 41%
ATL: 34%

A 34% Ball% usually points to a high-3.00 ERA talent. Not great, but way better than his previous results.

Relievers

Seranthony Domínguez (9): These adds coincided with Félix Bautista going on the IL, but all reports had the Orioles trading away Dominguez. And they did. Drop.

Phil Maton (5): Rumors had Ryan Helsley on the move, so fantasy managers bet Maton would take over the closer’s duties. Again, all reports also had Maton on the move. Maton is now a drop.

Blake Treinen (5): The Dodgers didn’t have a closer, and Treinen was coming off the IL. This add was perfect for those looking to add Saves.

Garrett Whitlock (5): On Sunday, Aroldis Chapman left with a back issue, so managers looked to add his replacement.

 

NFBC High Stakes League Adds
Name Adds Max Bid Min Bid
Troy Melton 11 70 2
Seranthony Dominguez 9 71 2
Colson Montgomery 9 26 9
J.T. Ginn 9 24 7
Josh Jung 7 53 15
Luis Severino 6 20 1
Gabriel Arias 6 15 1
Justin Verlander 6 13 2
Joc Pederson 6 9 3
Warming Bernabel 6 8 1
Ryan Mountcastle 5 25 6
Blake Treinen 5 23 2
Phil Maton 5 11 2
Tommy Pham 5 7 2
Garrett Whitlock 5 6 2
Coby Mayo 5 5 3
Joey Wentz 5 4 1
Jordan Lawlar 4 45 3
Chase Meidroth 4 22 2
Reid Detmers 4 22 2
Nathan Lukes 4 16 1
Cal Quantrill 4 12 3
Yennier Cano 4 12 2
Cade Povich 4 12 2
Simeon Woods Richardson 4 11 1
Brice Matthews 4 9 1
Alex Vesia 4 9 1
Griffin Jax 4 5 3
Lucas Erceg 4 2 1

Big Kid Adds (Week 16)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 14)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Will Benson (7): For anyone using weekly projections, Benson jumped off the page as an add. He came in as the week’s 77th-ranked batter. It might not seem like he’s worth adding, but in a 12-team league with 168 batters rostered, Benson is worth 0.2 points in the standings compared to a replacement outfielder. If a similar move is made every week throughout a season, it would theoretically be worth 5.2 spots in the standings.

In leagues with a decent waiver wire, being able to churn one to three spots can be a huge advantage.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (6): Kim returned to the Rays and immediately injured himself. Once regularly playing, he could be a difference maker with potential for Steals and Home Runs.

So far, he seems to be trading off power for more contact with some career-low power StatCast numbers in his AAA rehab. Solid gamble.

Colson Montgomery (6): I didn’t believe in Montgomery because of his 34% K% in AAA. If an AAA pitcher dominates a batter, I don’t want him in the majors. While a .500 BABIP in 17 PA has his overall numbers up (.385/.500/.538), his 15.6% SwStr% is 2.5% points higher than his AAA rate.

With all the hitters who were destroying AAA and then struggled in the majors, why would I want one who is getting eaten up by AAA pitching?

Max Muncy (West Sacramento) (5): Experiencing a hot streak (.316/.350/.789 in July) but has struggled (75 wRC+, 32% K%) for most of the season. He has shown more power with 7 HR in 179 PA. I backed off of him and several others A’s because Miguel Andujar (.296/.328/.402) is about to come off the IL. Zack Gelof’s return contributes to the roster crunch.

Francisco Alvarez (5): Sent to AAA, and someone thought it was time to add him for a potential future callup. Wasn’t horrible with a 92 wRC+ (.236/.319/.333). He wasn’t much of a fantasy contributor with 3 HR and 0 SB to go with the .236 AVG in 138 PA.

There may be more to the demotion than just his performance. By keeping Alvarez down until Saturday, the Mets gain another year of control over him.

Unless Alvarez is recalled to the major leagues by Saturday, he will have spent enough time in the minors this season to delay his free agency by a full year. The New York Mets will gain an additional year of team control over the catcher, who wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. Alvarez would be a free agent entering his age-28 season, still relatively young to be on the open market.

“I can’t worry about that right now — it’s a lot for me to worry about right now,” Alvarez told The Athletic when approached about the free-agency issue Tuesday before a game in Syracuse. “I didn’t know that, but I feel like I need to just focus on getting better and that’s it.”

Alvarez’s demotion was not a surprise, and it wasn’t primarily motivated by the service-time issue. Though trying to incorporate a swing change, the third-year catcher has just six extra-base hits in 35 major-league games. His slugging percentage is 100 points lower than it was as a rookie in 2023.

Starters

Joey Cantillo (9): On Monday, Cantillo made his first major league start of the season, going 3 IP on 68 pitches. The results were similar to his results to date, a good number of strikeouts (5) and walks (3). He has some Will Warren/Tylor Megill vibes. He has good enough stuff to get the strikeouts, but the walks can come back to bite him.

On top of his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.87 ERA, he’s not going deep into games. That might be the Guardians’ plan to limit his innings like the White Sox did with Garrett Crochet last season. Cantillo has never surpassed 119 IP in a single season and only threw 78 IP last season. So far this season, he’s at 47 IP.

Pablo López (6): On the 60-day IL, and the earliest he can come off the IL is early August, after going on the IL on June 5th. This is a pure stash player and could be worth losing the extra roster spot if Lopez returns to pitch like he was before the injury (2.82 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).

Sean Burke (5): I wrote the following about Burke in this week’s Waiver Wire article.

Since I wrote the analysis, he faced the Blue Jays and got lit up for 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 3 HR in 5 IP. He’s likely just a streamer against weaker offenses.

Ryan Gusto (5): Gusto’s (4.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) demand is the hope that he replaces Colton Gordon (4.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP) in the Astros rotation. It seems like Gusto’s been overall better, but he padded his ERA with seven relief appearances (4.92 ERA as SP, 3.29 ERA as RP).

All of Gusto’s struggles have come against lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.49 FIP. Now, against lefties, it’s a 5.86 FIP. Broken down against lefties, it’s a:

4.9 BB/9
2.3 HR/9
.354 BABIP.

If he starts Sunday, he’ll face Texas, which is in the middle of the pack with right-handed batters comprising 57% of their plate appearances.

Logan Allen로건 (5): Allen is scheduled to face the White Sox, so he’s tempting for most fantasy teams to use. His 4.07 ERA is his best trait, with projections and ERA estimators pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. Additionally, his 1.43 WHIP has done as much damage as a 5.10 ERA.

He’s shown a little improvement over his last six starts with his walk rate down from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9.

I get the same feeling as I did with Burke, where I might roster him, but I don’t feel good about.

Relievers

Ronny Henriquez (7): Miami’s closer with some amazing stats (2.72 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9).

Adrian Morejon (5): The lefty is being used in high-leverage spots with some great stats (1.79 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.82 WHIP). My only issue with Morejon is that, being a lefty, he’s likely behind righty Jason Adam for the closer’s role if Robert Suarez falters.

Most Added Players In NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added In Max Bid Min Bid
Joey Cantillo 9 35 3
Ronny Henriquez 7 131 44
Will Benson 7 22 9
Ha-Seong Kim 6 74 13
Pablo Lopez 6 24 4
Colson Montgomery 6 19 11
Sean Burke 5 23 5
Ryan Gusto 5 18 1
Logan Allen 5 13 2
Max Muncy 5 13 7
Francisco Alvarez 5 7 2
Adrian Morejon 5 7 2
Shane McClanahan 4 27 2
Jack Perkins 4 23 2
Adrian Houser 4 12 2
Andrew Vaughn 4 12 3
Jordan Hicks 4 12 3
Colby Thomas 4 10 3
Jordan Wicks 4 8 2
Kyle Higashioka 4 3 1
Zebby Matthews 4 2 1

Big Kid Adds (Week 13)


While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Casey Schmitt (9): I misread the situation with Schmitt. With Matt Chapman out, he starts every game at third base. I didn’t see much long-term sustainability, but I ignored Tyler Fitzgerald’s struggles, which got him demoted to AAA. Once Chapman returns, I expect Schmitt (a plus defender) to slide over to second base.

In 108 PA so far this season, Schmitt is batting .284/.364/.453 with 4 HR. The biggest difference for the 26-year-old compared to previous seasons is his .359 BABIP (.259 from ’23 to ’24). He’s hitting the ball harder with his avgEV up 2 mph and his HardHit% up 13% points. He’s trading off some Contact rate (76% to 73%) for the additional power.

Projections aren’t buying the higher BABIP and see a .240 AVG to .250 AVG going forward.

Giancarlo Stanton (8): With Stanton’s home run potential, the demand was going to be high. In the nine games since being recalled, Stanton, started in six of them as the designated hitter, but not three in a row.

In 25 PA so far, he’s batting .304/.360/.348 with a 36% K% (Contact% down from 68% to 65%), .500 BABIP, and 64% GB%. Additionally, his average bat speed is down from 81.2 mph last year to 79.7 mph this season.

He should be held for another week or so to see where his talent stabilizes.

Isaac Collins (8): The 27-year-old started in 10 of the last 11 games while batting .262/.366/.403 with 4 HR and 8 SB. The only stat that could be high is his .337 BABIP. Projections say it should be a .300 BABIP.

Even with a lower batting average, he’s still a solid add based on the playing time and talent.

Gary Sánchez (8): With several catchers getting hurt, Sánchez was one of the few available options. He’s never going to provide speed (career 6 SB) or batting average (career .224 AVG), but hit a decent number of homers.

Brady House (6): Nine straight starts at third base, but not much else (56 wRC+). I’m not sure how he’ll be fantasy relevant. He seems to be below league average in every trait.

Michael Toglia (5): He has started eight straight games since being recalled from AAA. Over those games, he’s batting .303/.343/.667 with 3 HR in 35 PA. No breakout is occurring with Toglia experiencing two better eight-game stretches last season.

The hope is that the team remembers this hot streak and allows him to keep starting.

David Hamilton (5): Hamilton can steal bases (12 SB in 112 PA), but little else (30 wRC+). He should hold down the job until Alex Bregman returns after the All-Star break.

When Bregman returns, Marcelo Mayer (4 HR, 91 wRC+) should move over and play second base.

Pedro Pagés (5): Again, with several catchers getting hurt, the bottom of the barrel was being scraped for options. Pagés provides some power (5 HR in 201 PA) but nothing else (.222 AVG, 0 SB).

Starters

Emmet Sheehan (10): The 25-year-old was great in his debut (4 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER). After the start, the team demoted him to AAA. It’s not obvious when he’ll return. Justin Wrobleski now throws strikes (2.5 BB/9) with ERA estimators in the mid-3.00 range.

Sheehan should be worth an add if a team can handle having him take up a roster spot.

Didier Fuentes (7): Before the 20-year-old righty made his Wednesday start, his stock was higher. The results from that first start were respectable (5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 6 H, and 4 ER), but his STUPH metrics are off the charts.

Then the Wednesday start happened (3 IP, 6 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 2 HR). With the disaster, TheBot’s ERA estimator still values him as a 3.33 ERA talent. The Stuff+ values haven’t updated, but he had a 116 Pitching+ pointing to a 3.04 talent.

He attacks batters with his fastball (96 mph, 10% SwStr%), slider, and curve. The results on the slider and curve are worse than his fastball, but the STUPH metrics love both. It’s hard to nail down his value.

One issue is that he’s getting annihilated the second time through the order, likely because his secondary pitches aren’t working.

TTO: K-BB%, BABIP, xFIP, ERA
1st: 22%, .308, 3.26, 4.15
2nd: -6%, .500, 8.63, 27.00

I added him in several leagues, but wasn’t brave enough to start (thank the Spaghetti Monster). It’ll be interesting to see how the team handles him going forward.

Ryan Bergert (7): Most likely added for his start against the Nationals on Tuesday, where he rewarded them with 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, and 5 H in 3 IP.

Before the start, he was about as lucky as it could get with .233 BABIP, 0.7 HR/9, and 82% LOB%. For me, his 4.0 BB/9 would have been a sign to stay away, especially with his ERA estimators (4.73 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA) and STUPH values (4.22 botERA, 4.45 Pitching+ ERA) pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA arm.

Janson Junk (6): Junk was limited in how deep he went into games until the last outing (79 pitches). So far this season, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA (2.77 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.01 WHIP.

He’s been pitching backwards by throwing his slider (46% usage, 15% SwStr%) more than any other pitch. His four-seam has been solid with a 10% SwStr%.

The key for him to keep his value going forward is to limit the walks. He has just two in 27 IP. I expect some regression, but not a ton. His 29% Ball% points to 1.5 BB/9.

Logan Allen로건 (6): For me, his 1.50 WHIP (4.0 BB/9) is unrosterable. It does as much ratio damage as a 5.52 ERA. Fantasy managers added him for his two-step versus Toronto and St. Louis. In the first start, Allen was fine with 4 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 8 H in 5.2 IP. We’ll see how the second start goes.

Trevor Rogers (5): After struggling for several seasons to find the strike zone (4.1 BB/9, 1.56 WHIP last season), the 27-year-old is much improved with a 1.6 BB/9 (34% Ball, 2.5 equiv BB/9) so far this season. Additionally, his fastball velocity increased 2 mph (91.7 mph to 93.7 mph). Finally, he’s brought down the usage (24% to 17%) of this horrible sinker (37 botOvr, 78 Pitching+, 2% SwStr%).

The 1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP will regress (0.0 HR/9, .213 BABIP, 92% LOB%), but some signs indicate him being a high 3.00 ERA talent.

Justin Wrobleski (6): While a 63% LOB% has him with a 4.91 ERA, he’s been solid with a 3.23 xFIP and 4.32 botERA (difference likely from opponent quality). He has a 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 48% GB%. Starters with better numbers in all three categories (min 20 IP) are:

Nathan Eovaldi
Brandon Walter
Max Fried
Logan Webb

He should continue to get chances as long as he gets similar results.

Eric Lauer 라우어 (5): The .222 BABIP won’t last, but even with some regression, signs point to him being a streamable 4.00 ERA talent.

Jack Kochanowicz (5): Some brave souls are running out the 24-year-old righty for his two-step against Boston and Washington. He struggled in his first start with 1 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 6 H in 5.0 IP.

There is an argument that Kochanowicz is the worst of the league’s 73 qualified starters. Here is how he ranks in various categories.

Stat: Rank
K-BB%: 70th
ERA: 71st
WHIP: 73rd
xFIP: 65th

I think he was added because a website ranked him as the 89th best pitcher this week. In 15-teamers, 135 pitchers are rostered so deep, the 89th (of 394) guy seems reasonable. The issue is that those values are based on his production just this week. The higher chance for Strikeouts and Wins pushes him (and the other two-start guys) higher than they should be. Using season-long valuations, his projected ERA and WHIP do so much damage; he’s the 370th-ranked pitcher and will be a net negative for the week (usually 50 pitchers project as such).

Relievers

Orion Kerkering (8): In the week before FAAB ran, Kerkering got two Saves and looks to be sharing the closer’s role and possibly could be the closer.

Chris Martin (7): Martin is Texas’s best reliever, and he got a Save on Saturday. Then on Tuesday, he was brought in for the seventh inning when he faced three batters and allowed three home runs. Who knows his role.

Grant Taylor (6): The 23-year-old righty got the Save on Sunday, so the hope was that he’s now the White Sox’s closer. On Wednesday, he came in the seventh inning and threw two innings, getting a Hold. He’s for sure being used in high-leverage situations.

He attacks batters with a 99-mph fastball (23% SwStr%) and a cutter and curve. The STUPH models love the two secondaries, but the results haven’t been the best on them. He hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss on the curve yet.

 

Players Added in NFBC High-Stakes Leagues
Name Number of Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Emmet Sheehan 10 63 7
Casey Schmitt 9 23 6
Orion Kerkering 8 74 22
Giancarlo Stanton 8 54 14
Isaac Collins 8 29 6
Gary Sanchez 8 9 1
Didier Fuentes 7 28 1
Chris Martin 7 22 4
Ryan Bergert 7 14 1
Janson Junk 6 35 3
Justin Wrobleski 6 33 3
Brady House 6 24 8
Grant Taylor 6 17 2
Logan Allen 6 13 2
Michael Toglia 5 107 25
David Hamilton 5 17 4
Trevor Rogers 5 13 2
Eric Lauer 5 11 3
Pedro Pages 5 10 1
Jack Kochanowicz 5 9 4
Mike Yastrzemski 4 39 8
Jacob Lopez 4 38 7
Seth Halvorsen 4 18 5
Nick Gonzales 4 18 4
Luis Torrens 4 17 3
Joey Ortiz 4 16 2
Pavin Smith 4 15 5
Colt Keith 4 13 8
Joey Bart 4 11 2
Dominic Canzone 4 11 7
Mauricio Dubon 4 9 2
Richard Fitts 4 8 2
Austin Wynns 4 1 1

Beat the Shift Podcast – Overall Episode w/ Marc Winokur

The Overall episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

League Updates

  • GDD
    • Trade!
  • NFBC
    • 1st half sucesss

Strategy Section

  • NFBC Overall Contests
    • When should you alter your focus from the single league contest to playing for an overall contest title?
      • Does the size of your lead matter?
      • Does format matter – FAAB vs. non-FAAB?
    • Do you alter draft strategy at all due to the overall component of NFBC contests?
  • The 2025 fantasy basbeall winning strategy to date
  • Are Ohtani/Judge auction bids (i.e. high priced, but high returning players) efficient?

ATC Half Season

  • Hits and Misses
    • Luis Arraez value
    • The profitable range of the pre-season auction market for hitters and pitchers

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

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Big Kid Adds (Week 12)

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – NFBC Episode w/ Zack Waxman

The NFBC episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Zack Waxman

Draft Champions Podcast

Strategy Section

  • NFBC
    • Power players
    • Drafting early vs. drafting late
    • The use of projections
    • ADP
    • Jacob deGrom’s innings for 2025
  • Waiver Wire / FAAB
    • General Strategy
    • Putting in the time
    • What to tackle first / how best to use your time?
    • Track remaining FAAB?
    • Allocate FAAB weekly?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

Read the rest of this entry »