We are now a full month into the season, so it’s finally time to give you all an update on the LABR mixed league you have all been eagerly awaiting. For those who did not commit my team to memory, refresh it by checking out my draft results again. Once you have stopped laughing after perusing my roster, you will realize how brave I am to ever talk about this team again.
FanGraphs vs. The Hardball Times. And you can take part.
The RotoGraphs squad is taking on a group from The Hardball Times in a fantasy showdown. Our own Howard Bender, Chris Benson, Mike Podhorzer, Dan Wade, Brandon Warne, and David Wiers took part in an auction last night and they’ll be battling six foes from The Hardball Times for fantasy glory… and a $600 prize that will go to the charity of the winner’s choice. Most likely, the cash will end up going to the Leukemia Society, because, most likely, we’re going to win.
We’ll be writing about this from time to time to keep you up to date and discuss issues that come up, but there’s a twist — you can get involved if you like.
I made a mistake in my latest auction draft. A rookie mistake. I left money on the table. You know what, though — I’m not too worried about it. It was a natural risk that was bred from a few of my main tenets. Here are some of those personal rules — which I may have to alter now that I’m going public — and then I’ll discuss how implementing the rules went in yesterday’s particular draft.
1) Throw guys you don’t want. Bid on them a little bit so people don’t know that you’re throwing guys you don’t want. Watch them spend money on players you don’t want.
2) Budget two dollars for every bench spot. This creates end-game flexibility. You’ll be able to steal everyone’s one-dollar picks.
3) Compare early results for stars to your auction value spreadsheet. Adjust your plan accordingly.
Last week, I determine who the most overvalued pitchers were based on my projections and dollar values in comparison to their average draft positions on Mock Draft Central. Today I check in on the other side of the coin. Pitcher projections and rankings always have the most disagreement, so it is always interesting to see where my opinion diverges from the mock drafters and the various projection systems. I decided to include the 5 most undervalued pitchers that are still worth drafting (expected to generate a positive value) in a standard 12-team mixed league and projected to be worth more than just a couple of bucks. I also excluded the reliever turned starter group since I’ve talked enough about them and they aren’t 100% locks for a spot anyway.
Last Wednesday, I look at the most overvalued hitters at every position (sans catcher), comparing the positional rankings inferred from the ADPs at Mock Draft Central to my dollar values. Avoiding the players that are unlikely to earn their draft slot or auction price is important, but winners also usually end up with a chock full of players that were undervalued as well. Last time, I looked at the top 10 at each infield position and the top 24 outfielders. This time I will look at every starter expected to generate positive value in a standard, 12-team league.
First off, thanks to everyone who gave me their suggestions on who to select first overall and provided strategy advice when I asked you all to help me win the inaugural LABR mixed league. We held the draft on Sat. night and it was great to already get back into the swing of the fantasy season. I have never drafted this early, so having a fantasy team before March begins is exciting! Though as expected there were several times where my player was taken literally right before my pick, I am very pleased with how my team turned out.
As flawed as ADP analysis may be, you have to admit it’s a boatload of fun to dissect, right?! And heck, when games aren’t yet being played, what else are we going to write about? So today I am looking at the players whose ADP has changed the most over the last two weeks during drafts conducted at Mock Draft Central. I only looked at the top 276 players, since that’s how many players are selected in standard 12-team leagues.
I was invited to Fantasy411’s industry slow mock to open the mocking season. Now, what feels like a month later, only two picks remain. Because I love my team, I thought I’d brag about it.
The mock has some serious competitors involved. Jason Collette, Paul Sporer, Derek VanRiper, Will Carroll, Joe Sheehan, Todd Zola, Steve Gardner, Ray Flowers, Cory Schwartz, Lawr Michaels, Zach Steinhorn and Jeff Erickson were the 12 other managers, listed from last to first pick. A good gaggle of go-getters.
I had the last pick of the first round — which was fine with me. I love this team. Here are the overall results so far, but after the jump I’ll take you through my picks round by round. It’s mocking season!
With Yahoo finally opening up its mock drafts, I am going to look today at how second basemen are being drafted at Yahoo compared to MockDraftCentral.com. Here is the list of 2B drafted at Yahoo and their positions drafted at MDC along with some notes.
Note: Remember that the rankings are highly based off of the website’s initial rankings of the players.
| Name | Position | Yahoo | MDC | Difference | Yahoo! | MDC | Differnce |
| Robinson Cano | (NYY – 2B) | 8 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Dustin Pedroia | (Bos – 2B) | 18 | 19 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Ian Kinsler | (Tex – 2B) | 21 | 24 | 3 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Dan Uggla | (Atl – 2B) | 48 | 53 | 5 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Ben Zobrist | (TB – 2B,OF) | 53 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Michael Young | (Tex – 1B,2B,3B) | 59 | 71 | 13 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Brandon Phillips | (Cin – 2B) | 60 | 61 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Chase Utley | (Phi – 2B) | 65 | 77 | 12 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Howie Kendrick | (LAA – 1B,2B,OF) | 78 | 105 | 27 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Michael Cuddyer | (Col – 1B,2B,OF) | 82 | 96 | 14 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Rickie Weeks | (Mil – 2B) | 89 | 79 | -10 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Dustin Ackley | (Sea – 2B) | 139 | 137 | -2 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Jemile Weeks | (Oak – 2B) | 157 | 155 | -3 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| Neil Walker | (Pit – 2B) | 164 | 144 | -21 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Danny Espinosa | (Was – 2B) | 179 | 151 | -29 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Kelly Johnson | (Tor – 2B) | 212 | 235 | 24 | 100% | 71% | 29% |
| Ryan Theriot | (SF – 2B,SS) | 217 | 273 | 56 | 3% | 4% | -1% |
| Gordon Beckham | (CWS – 2B) | 221 | 238 | 17 | 9% | 32% | -23% |
| Jose Altuve | (Hou – 2B) | 222 | 221 | 0 | 3% | 13% | -10% |
| Omar Infante | (Mia – 2B) | 223 | 238 | 15 | 5% | 17% | -12% |
| Ryan Raburn | (Det – 2B,OF) | 224 | 241 | 18 | 7% | 42% | -35% |
| Ryan Roberts | (Ari – 2B,3B) | 224 | 196 | -28 | 98% | 95% | 3% |
| Darwin Barney | (ChC – 2B) | 224 | 417 | 192 | 2% | 0% | 2% |
| Allen Craig | (StL – 2B,OF) | 225 | 233 | 8 | 19% | 56% | -37% |
| Scott Sizemore | (Oak – 2B,3B) | 228 | 299 | 70 | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| Ruben Tejada | (NYM – 2B,SS) | 232 | 270 | 38 | 2% | 18% | -16% |
| Mike Aviles | (Bos – 2B,3B,SS) | 233 | 237 | 3 | 16% | 3% | 13% |
| Maicer Izturis | (LAA – 2B,3B,SS) | 234 | ND | NA | 7% | 0% | 7% |
| Eduardo Nunez | (NYY – 2B,3B,SS) | 234 | 273 | 39 | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Sean Rodriguez | (TB – 2B,3B,SS) | 234 | 267 | 32 | 7% | 21% | -14% |
| Jason Kipnis | (Cle – 2B) | 235 | 166 | -69 | 92% | 97% | -5% |
| Brian Roberts | (Bal – 2B) | 237 | 242 | 4 | 7% | 54% | -47% |
| Daniel Murphy | (NYM – 1B,2B,3B) | 239 | 232 | -7 | 64% | 74% | -10% |
| Aaron Hill | (Ari – 2B) | 254 | 233 | -21 | 83% | 81% | 2% |
Notes
– The first major difference in the drafts was Ben Zobrist being taken 27 places higher. I have Zobrist lumped in with a group of 2B including Uggla, Young, Phillips, Utley, Kendrick, Cuddyer and Weeks (Rickie). At MDC, Rickie Weeks, on average, is being taken 1 spot ahead of Zobrist. At Yahoo, Zobrist is being taken 36 spots earlier. As a group, these 7 2B average being a taken at 67th over all at Yahoo. At MDC, they average being taken at the 77th spot. I believe there is plenty of talent at the 2B position and there is no reason reach for one of this group early. I think MDC’s numbers are closer to where these 2B should be drafted, about one round later.
– Danny Espinosa and Neil Walker are lower at Yahoo compared to MDC. I am guessing it is because everyone has already participated in a run on the over-ranked 2B earlier in the draft. The pair has been taken 100% of the time on both websites.
– Kelly Johnson is loved and Aaron Hill is hated by Yahoo compared to MDC. At MDC, they are being taken at almost the same clip. Johnson was taken 71% of the time with a ADP of 235. Aaron Hill was taken 81% of the with an ADP of 233. Aaron’s ADP drops 21 places to the lowest value among 2B at Yahoo. Johnson’s ADP jumps 24 spots and is the last 2B taken 100% of the time at Yahoo. Owners know that Hill has the ability to produce and are taking him late in 83% of the Yahoo leagues.
– Jason Kipnis is the biggest dropper from MDC to Yahoo of the 2B. His percentage drafted is similar (92% vs 97%), but is being taken almost 6 rounds later in the draft.
– I would not use the preset rankings for reference at all at Yahoo, especially later in the draft. If a person was to go off the percentage drafted, the ranking of the players are much improved.
After sites like Mock Draft Central launched and league hosts like Yahoo! and CBS have added the information, Average Draft Position data has become all the rage. I have read so many articles referencing ADP, and yet, the majority of the time I still have no idea exactly what the author means or how owners utilize it. I recently read a line from a column about mock draft strategy that called ADP’s employment being overrated. Huh? I don’t get it. And how many times have I read that drafter X “reached” on a player? I am confused exactly what is meant by a reach. So let’s try to get back on the same page, while also figuring out exactly how the heck ADP data is actually best used.