The Most Undervalued Pitchers
Last week, I determine who the most overvalued pitchers were based on my projections and dollar values in comparison to their average draft positions on Mock Draft Central. Today I check in on the other side of the coin. Pitcher projections and rankings always have the most disagreement, so it is always interesting to see where my opinion diverges from the mock drafters and the various projection systems. I decided to include the 5 most undervalued pitchers that are still worth drafting (expected to generate a positive value) in a standard 12-team mixed league and projected to be worth more than just a couple of bucks. I also excluded the reliever turned starter group since I’ve talked enough about them and they aren’t 100% locks for a spot anyway.
Mike Minor
ADP Rank: 87
My Rank: 49
For the second straight season, I like Minor as a sleeper. Last year, he lost the 5th starter job to Brandon Beachy, who had a breakout year of his own, but even when Minor did pitch, his results were disappointing. However, he has posted a very good strikeout rate over his short career and displayed solid control. His career SIERA of 3.63 is significantly lower than his 4.74 ERA, thanks to a ridiculous .359 BABIP. Two-thirds of the projection systems look at that astronomical BABIP and apparently assume there is a lack of skill in that department, rather than just poor fortune. This is surprising, considering 123.1 innings is quite a small sample size. My projection calls for a 3.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 160 innings, which as usual, agrees the most with the Steamer projection (one of the two systems that does not project a BABIP well above the league average, but only slightly). If he pitches well during Tim Hudson’s absence, I cannot imagine him being booted from the rotation.
Ted Lilly
ADP Rank: 64
My Rank: 34
Given that drafters typically overvalue youth, it isn’t that surprising that the consistently solid, yet unexciting Lilly is being neglected. My projection is basically right in line with all the other systems, except the Fans, who are the only ones to project an ERA over 4.00, albeit just a tad. His SIERA has been remarkably consistent over the last four seasons, so there’s no hint that his skills are deteriorating. Yes, he’s boring to watch, but given how cheap owners are able to draft him, he can keep serving up those 87.0 mile per hour fastballs.
Colby Lewis
ADP Rank: 56
My Rank: 33
Have drafters already decided that his successful return to the league in 2010 was the fluke? Although his peripherals did take a bit of a hit last year, his SIERA was still 0.52 points below his actual ERA. The decline in strikeout rate can likely be traced to a drop in fastball velocity, but he still managed to punch out batters at an above average clip. So if his velocity rebounds, that’s just additional upside. Once again, my ERA projection matches up nearly identically to the Steamer system, while my WHIP projection of 1.21 is close to what the Fans are projecting. I am only projecting a slight increase in K/9, so anything more would make him even more undervalued. Like Lilly, he isn’t someone you get revved up about drafting or even watching pitch, but he should easily outperform his draft slot.
Brandon Morrow
ADP Rank: 51
My Rank: 31
Surprise, surprise, the sabermetric darling and anti-Matt Cain makes an appearance once again. There’s really nothing I can say that hasn’t been said before. The bottom line is that he has either suffered from some really poor luck and will be an absolute bargain in fantasy leagues this year and a major breakout, or he is one of the rare outliers who will continue to struggle with men on base. Obviously, my money is on the former. For those curious, I am projecting a 3.71 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a 9.6 K/9 over 190 innings. That ERA is right around the Steamer (again!) and Bill James projections, so another good reality check that I’m not totally insane. The WHIP is lower than all the projections because they are all projecting a BABIP of at least .311. That makes absolutely no sense to me though since his BABIP last year was .299 and for his career right at .300.
Scott Baker
ADP Rank: 59
My Rank: 41
Baker is understandably undervalued after he missed six weeks last year with an elbow injury and only once pitching 200 innings. I am actually only projecting 170 and yet still think he is quite undervalued. The only knock on his skills is his extreme fly ball ways, but luckily he has Target Field to help suppress some of those long balls. For the most part, my peripheral projections are right in line with the other systems. Yet, my projected 3.59 ERA is the lowest of all the systems, as is the 1.20 WHIP. The reason for this is once again the BABIP projection. For some crazy reason unbeknownst to me, the lowest projected BABIP is .306, even though he owns a .302 career mark and posted a .297 mark last year. Like Lilly and Lewis, all of whom have fairly similar skill set profiles, Baker isn’t flashy or exciting, but he gets results, and those expected results might come cheaper than expected this year.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Agree on Minor and Baker… I think you’re overvaluing Morrow, Lilly, and Lewis though. I think Nicasio is currently the most undervalued pitcher BY FAR. Here’s my undervalued pitchers:
http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012/03/06/2012-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-starting-pitcher-deep-sleepers/
http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012/02/28/2012-fantasy-baseball-starting-pitcher-sleepers/
+1 on Nicasio.
I really like Nicasio, however I still basically only have him worth a buck or two in a 12-team league. I’m sure you can get him in the reserve round, and he’s a nice upside choice there.
Steamer also has a lot of love relative to ADP for Luebke, Beachy, and Edwin Jackson. Nicasio also comes out pretty high. Do you agree on those as well? Steamer seems to view Beachy and Luebke as top 15 pitchers, Edwin in the top 40.
Yup, I have Beachy as quite undervalued as well, not so much on Luebke though. I’m not sure about Jackson though, have to check when I get home. See my Nicasio comment above
I think you missed the most undervalued pitcher, but I’m happy to say that this means it’s still my secret. 🙂 I’m getting tired of having fantasy baseball websites give away my ideas.
anny-belle is pretty underrated on yahoo…is it him?
on espn as well
I’ve drunk the koolaid in the past on Morrow…and am drafting him again this year obviously. My question, however, is: at what point do we worry that the LOB numbers are a product of something sinister (not luck) like a real and significant split in windup/stretch pitching talent.
There was a very good fangraphs article on his strand rate issues a couple months ago. Sorry, actually can’t recall whether it was an article or a thread that developed in the comments. But there is a real risk that he is the AL’s Nolasco, i.e., bad strand rates aren’t necessarily “unlucky.”
You have to remember that in 2009, which included 10 starts in his 26 games appeared in, his overall LOB% was 75%. If you look at just his starts beginning in June, his LOB% was at least 75.2% in every month. I just don’t think 2 seasons of below 70% LOB% is a large enough sample to be sure he lacks runner stranding skills.
I absolutely LOVE Luebke this year. He and Matt Moore will return a lot of value for where they’re going, even though Moore looks like he goes early he’s a top 10 starter even for 2012. I have Beachy right there with Luebke too, but Luebke goes about a round later in NFBC satellite drafts – http://www.therotosaurus.com/drafts/average-draft-position/ – so he’s the better value.
Not nearly as high on Edwin Jackson… he has a lot of things he has to put together in order to really breakout (that WHIP can be dangerous) – http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-profiles-and-projections/edwin-jackson/
With Morrow, I will say that he only had ONE GIDP last season, so that’s sure to change… but I think people expecting all the bad luck to reverse itself will be disappointed. I have him ranked #45 of all starters between Ubaldo and Bud Norris
I’ve owned Lilly on most of my teams for about four years running. Every year I look at my rankings, and lo and behold, he’s going a round or two later than he should.
The thing about Lilly is that he is a very strong finisher. He literally locked up a title for me in an h2h league a couple years ago with his September finish. So if you can’t justify drafting him, add him after the ASB or try to get him thrown into a trade as filler.
I like how you said he locked up a title for you “a couple years ago”. Lol.
MInor’s problem last year was that allowed a ridiculous 27% line-drive rate, which probably fueled that nasty BABIP.
Something about this series makes me think that your projections and dollar amounts are just bad.
Which projections did you disagree with? And what are your projections for those players?
Every one of these articles you’ve posted have been fuilled with mind boggling “ranks”.
Can you post the entire spreadsheet with your predictions so it could possibly make sense to someone other than you?
I agree Lily does go a round or 2 late, but ranking him and Lewis around 33-34 is way too high I think… I have Lewis 54 and Lilly 55… look at my rankings and tell me who in the top 35 Lilly and Lewis should be ahead of? http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012-player-rankings/starting-pitcher-rankings/
No way.
Minor could be in for a great year… he strikes out a ton so his upside is huge
Your list is better 🙂
Your rankings are good. You’re willing to deviate from the pack, which most rankers don’t do a lot of.
I don’t care what perception is… this is what I think the rankings are in ACTUALITY. I am no sheep. I put thousands on the line just to join a league so I’d hope I know what i’m doing haha
The only ranking I take issue with after a quick scan is Ubaldo. Why so low? K rate and Sierra were both in line with his 2010. His BABIP was up tremendously. Bill James has him projected right around his 2009 stats for 2012. If anything, I think Ubaldo is a fantastic value play given his ADP.
I really REALLY hope you’re right as an Indians fan, but face facts – last year was a disaster. Here’s what I typed below – Ubaldo’s real problem was the drop in his velocity from 96.1 MPH to 93.5 MPH – which is significant. His velocity was around 94-96 in his first outing of the spring, so that’s a good sign. However, going to the AL from the NL, starters ERA go up and K/9 goes down so don’t expect the Ubaldo you saw in 2010.. here’s what I have – http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-profiles-and-projections/ubaldo-jimenez/
Here’s a something that is well-known amongst my colleagues about Bill James – his projections are VERY optimistic. I don’t want to take anything away from him.. he’s an innovator, he revolutionized the way we look at stats, etc… but I never look at his projections unless I wanna see if I’m being overly optimistic. Ubaldo COULD have a great year, but my list incorporates risk as well… he did not at any point last season look like a dominant pitcher… now if his velocity returns and his control is good, then we can talk.. but the risk of him blowing up your team ERA/WHIP keeps him down there. He’s a similar risk to Scherzer and Morrow… all have high upside though as well, just make sure you draft him to the right kind of team, one that doesn’t have a lot of built-in risk
I also love RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle for as late as you can get them… they won’t give you strikeouts but they’ll help a lot in ERA and be decent in WHIP and Wins
I don’t even look at guys with K rates like theirs.
We don’t have Ks so its exactly those guys I’m looking for. Rated low on all the expert lists because expert lists focus on 5×5 leagues, not 4×4.
well Steve, if you don’t need strikeouts then you definitely want to look at guys like Dickey, Buehrle, Alvarez, Stauffer, and maybe even Leake depending on how big the league is
I pretty much agree with most of what you’ve said here (and some of the commentors), and the proof is in the pudding of my recent 12-team, 5×5 draft: I got Morrow at #138 (though I have his totals higher than yours regarding ERA/WHIP (4.25/1.29)), Minor at #199, and Nicasio at #247.
Yeah, I like that! 🙂
Haren/Sabathia get no respect. There’s a lot of value in logging huge numbers of innings.
18. Dan Haren
19. CC Sabathia
20. Cory Luebke
21. Brandon Beachy
To be fair, my #14-19 starters there are all very comparable (Bumgarner to Sabathia) and are all in the same tier… there isn’t a whole lot of difference between them, bur Haren and Sabathia are both 31 years-old and don’t have as good of strikeout rates (and Cain has elite ERA/WHIP numbers). They are the last 2 in that tier and Luebke starts the next tier, so I would say there’s a bigger difference between #19 and #20 than there is between #14 and #19… if you go down to the bottom of the rankings you can see the tiers
I know it was spring training, but Lilly got knocked around pretty bad yesterday.
Actually, it appears you don’t know it’s spring training
philosofool… unless you’re in a 10-team league that is just absurd. I’d rather be chasing wins and K’s at the end of the season than look at my ERA and WHIP being way too high and having no way to lower it in time… rate stats are more important than counting stats because they cannot simply be chased like counting stats (like if I need HRs, I bench a SB guy for a power hitter) – once your ERA and WHIP are out of control there’s very little you can do about it.
The whole rate stats are harder to fix thing isn’t really true unless you don’t have an innings cap and are a roto league. You should always use every inning you have in roto so in effect all of the stats are basically rate stats for pitching.
This. Plus Ks are both more predictable and tend to be more predictive of the other stats than vice versa. Sounds like Dave may be talking H2H, in which case I’d agree with his argument, but in mixed roto with an innings cap I’ll almost never draft anyone I expect to have a K/9 below 7.0.
No I am absolutely talking 5×5 roto… that’s all I play
5×5 roto is the only thing fantasy articles should be based on unless otherwise specified.
H2H leagues are a joke, and are not won by the best overall team most years.
As someone who plays in only H2H leagues, they are not a joke. If you have good players and manage your lineup correctly, you will win. Just because it’s different does not make it worse.
Whent he 4th or 6th place has a chance to still “win the league” after 5 months, yes… it’s a joke.
You mean…like in actual real baseball, how the 4th-best-record Cardinals “won the World Series” last year?
Unless you’re in an innings-capped league, in which Ks essentially are a rate stat. There’s only so much chasing you can do late in the season when you’re pushing up against your innings limit. 200 innings of Buehrle’s K/9 can really put you in a hole.
I play 15-team leagues… in those kinds of leagues, the guys you’re going to have to start will not all be great with 7+ K/9.. but even in 12-team leagues Buehrle and Dickey will have plenty of value – just make sure you get enough K’s from your other starters to make up for it
*200 innings of Buehrle’s K/9 can really put you in a hole. *
This isn’t handling the stat pool properly. It wouldn’t be a detriment to your team if the rest of them had to employ a 200ip pitcher with a worse K/9 now would it?
You can chase any stat you want. Rate stats are counting stats and counting stats are rate stats as long as you have in IP limit.
How is ERA a counting stat? Well, a players xER equals (fantasy league average ERA – pitcehr’s ERA)*IP*9. xER tells you how many more runs a pitcher earns for your team (or doesn’t) than a fantasy league average pitcher.
You can do the same with batting average, by the way.
Same goes for IP.
In an IP league, your IP limit is basically a bank of pitcher performance and you want to maximize all counting stats on a per inning basis.
I disagree… you will most likely not catch people in ERA/WHIP at the end of the season.. it is not easy to pick out who will help you in those categories like it is finding some extra steals or homers. I always prefer to be stronger in WHIP/ERA/AVG
I saw a team move almost a full run in September last year in a 1600inning league, so it can and does happen.
sure… anything CAN happen, but it’s an absolute fact that it’s harder to make up bad ERA/WHIP/AVG than R/RBI/K/HR/SB/W
If you wait until september you aren’t fixing anything in a roto league, I don’t care what category it is.
You need to start fixing your rates in june/july if you want a shot at winning.
All of these guys but Morrow keep ending up on my teams so I like the list!
I have Morrow as my 35th SP and he is always gone before it gets that deep so I’m guessing that ADP doesn’t play in better leagues.
I haven’t seen much on Ubaldo. The skills didn’t drop off lmuch ast year. He just had the trifecta of bad luck–low BABIP and strand rate, high HR/FB. Yahoo has him as the #39 SP.
I like Sale best among the RP-to-SP converts.
Erik Bedard in the NL? yes, please.
Ubaldo is such a crapshoot. A rebound in velocity is extremely important to see. But the CLE infield defense is expected to suck, and so being a ground baller, he could very well have a higher than league average BABIP and be “unlucky” again. His ERA will almost certainly drop from last year, but by how much is the big question. Could be a nice risk though depending on his cost.
1. I should have specified I’m only referring to Roto with no innings cap limits
2. Ubaldo’s real problem was the drop in his velocity from 96.1 MPH to 93.5 MPH – which is significant. His velocity was around 94-96 in his first outing of the spring, so that’s a good sign. However, going to the AL from the NL, starters ERA go up and K/9 goes down so don’t expect the Ubaldo you saw in 2010.. here’s what I have – http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-profiles-and-projections/ubaldo-jimenez/
3. jsp, I agree completely with you about Sale – check it out http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012/02/27/chris-sale-neftali-feliz-and-daniel-bard-converting-relievers-into-starters/
4. I too like Bedard, the only question with him is health. He’s never reached 200 innings in his career, and he’s only pitched more than 142 innings twice. Count on him for about 100 very good innings.
http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-profiles-and-projections/erik-bedard/
jon niese and henderson alvarez for me.
I’m high on Alvarez but I think Y! has him a little higher than I’m comfortable taking him. Therefore I don’t really think he’s a good value
I like both these guys too, but not sure they will have much mixed league value. In Only leagues, great targets, will likely outearn cost.
I should probably mention that my value is based on leagues w/ BB/9.
I’m with you on both of them too SF – http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012/03/06/2012-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-starting-pitcher-deep-sleepers/
Ender, regarding ADP… it plays, but not Yahoo or MDC ADP… like for high-stakes players who play NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) we get the ADP data for all the satellite leagues before the main events draft which is on my site here – http://www.therotosaurus.com/drafts/average-draft-position/
Now, as you get to like rounds 15 and up, ADP becomes less and less relevant and people are going to just take who they want more than strictly following ADP. Morrow goes around pick #153 in NFBC satellite drafts