Keone Kela had surgery to remove a bone spur and will miss around three months. The closer and set-up roles remain intact for now, but the next in line is a little foggy. Jake Diekman seems like a solid option to fill that role based on his numbers so far. I put Anthony Barnette in that role for now since he was given the 7th inning today with a 2-1 lead, and had a clean inning. Not saying that he is better than Diekman, but simply based on potential usage, it looks like Barnette will at least be given a shot to be next in line. As I write about Barnette, Sam Dyson lets up a home run to Todd Frazier that ties up the game. Then gives up the go-ahead run through a series of walks, HBPs, and hits. Dyson is still strong enough to keep the set-up role and is still in line for saves if Shawn Tolleson falters. Speaking of blowing the lead, David Robertson blew his first save of the year. After allowing a lead-off walk to Desmond, Desmond advanced to third on an error during his stolen base. He would then score on a sacrifice fly. Robertson also allowed a single, but also had two strikeouts.

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• Kevin Jepsen entered the ninth inning in a tied game this afternoon but a Yadiel Rivera double (who advanced to third on an error) and a Scooter Gennett RBI single gave the Brewers the lead and the eventual loss for Jepsen, his third of the year.  It’s only been a few games but Jepsen has been about as effective as he was last year (3.81 xFIP in 2016 and 4.04 in 2015) but his 4.05 ERA doesn’t look as shiny as the 2.33 ERA he had last year. This wasn’t a particularly bad outing for Jepsen so no change is coming but if he continues to have a few more outings like today – Trevor May is someone to keep an eye on.

• Jeremy Jeffress needed only seven pitches for another scoreless inning today keeping his ERA at 0.00 and saving his fifth game on the year. Jeffress kills worms quite well with a career 57.6% ground ball percentage and although his K/9 sits at a less than stellar 6.75, his swinging strike rate is 14.3%, up from last year (11.4%). It’s certainly a small sample but if Jeffress can generate more whiffs while keeping the ball on the ground he could have a sneaky solid season. I wouldn’t expect a league leading save total on the Brewers but he’s hitting on a lot of the bullet points you would want to see.

• Jumbo Diaz was demoted today with Robert Stephenson getting the call up to the big leagues. J.J. Hoover hasn’t been effective at all this year and gave up another two earned this evening, but the competition behind him hasn’t been stiff enough to replace him, yet. I’ve upgraded the grid below to include Caleb Cotham who came over from New York in the Aroldis Chapman trade and hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances this year, including a perfect inning today. I’ve also upgraded Tony Cingrani, who started the ninth inning tonight getting the first out before handing it over to Hoover, as the next-in-line. This pecking order, including J.J. Hoover, remains red hot especially with Bryan Price saying that he will sleep on the decision about J.J. Hoover as closer. I would go for Cingrani then Cotham if you’re looking to grab a quick save as I think Hoover will be removed from his role, but it’s really close to a toss-up.

• Quick Hits: Cody Allen gave up one run but earned his fourth save of the year. After a day off due to a blister issue, Roberto Osuna was back in form for a four-out save. Wade Davis walked and struck out a batter for his sixth save. Alex Colome closed his second door of the season, throwing a perfect 10th with two strikeouts. Ryan Madson was called on in the 11th to secure the lead for the A’s and it certainly looks like he’s becoming the full on closer. Sean Doolittle threw a scoreless eighth in a tie game and I’ve upgraded the A’s to yellow on the grid. John Barbato allowed the first run of his season in his two innings of work but he still looks like a keeper in the Yankees pen. He won’t be able to leap frog Dellin Betances or Andrew Miller who both threw scoreless innings tonight (continuing their perfect seasons ERA-wise) but he’s another ratio and strikeout helper to rely on. The Yankees might have the best bullpen in the league even if Aroldis Chapman never throws a pitch.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Quick Notes from Sunday: Ryan Madson received and finished another save opportunity last night against the Royals earning his fourth save on the year. No announcement on a change has been made but Madson has received more save chances than Doolittle thus far. I’m going to put Madson ahead on the red hot grid for now but we might be looking at a quasi-committee of sorts. Alex Colome earned his first save for the Rays and should be an option for saves until Brad Boxberger returns. Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of the year. Jason Grilli also blew the save but Arodys Vizcaino wasn’t available and this only helps Vizcaino’s standing in the Braves pen.

And on to today’s games:

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For the sake of this week’s middle reliever column, we’ll be digging through a series of arbitrary endpoints in search of hurlers that can lend you a hand in your holds or saves + holds leagues. Sure, the arms noted are more likely to be considered in formats that reward holds, but for the most part, I am one of those players that favor rostering middles to maintain the ratios while logging strikeouts on a regular basis. All depends on the context of your league, obviously.
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• After a four game slide Terry Collins didn’t play around today calling on Jeurys Familia for a five-out save. Familia answered the call pitching around a couple of hits for his second save of the year. Hansel Robles got the last two outs of the seventh (both via strikeout) and Jerry Blevins got the call to start the eighth inning with the left-handed Ichiro and Christian Yelich due up. Addison Reed still figures to be the main eighth inning set up man with Blevins playing the matchups. Although he doesn’t have the “closer experience” like Reed, Robles has some real strikeout potential and could end the year in a more prominent role behind Familia.

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Mike talked earlier this week about being patient, essentially arguing that the best moves you can make this early in the season are no moves.  In other words, the season is so young and the sample size so small that you shouldn’t overreact.  While that is probably true, it doesn’t hurt to prepare yourself to pounce on a potential free agent waiver pick up if you see a skill or talent that looks convincing.  Sometimes you need to jump early to find the best bargain of the season, so here are four players that I’m watching closely over the next week or two.

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• Although he nailed down the last two save opportunities for the Phillies, Jeanmar Gomez has not yet been named closer with Pete Mackanin saying “I don’t want to jump to conclusions here […] Let’s keep playing it out until we see what happens.” Mackanin won’t say it, but I will – Gomez is the closer in Philadelphia. He may not have a long leash if he were to start struggling but David Hernandez and company likely won’t be seeing the next opportunity.

• Craig Kimbrel had a forgettable night for the Red Sox. Entering the ninth inning in a tie game Kimbrel allowed three runs with Chris Davis taking him deep for a 449 foot, three run homer. Kimbrel’s velocity (97.6 mph) was right in line with what you would expect from him and he still ranks among the elite closers in the game. Keep walking, nothing left to see here except future saves and loads of strikeouts.

• Fernando Rodney was able to shoot his first arrow of the year, closing the door on the Phillies today. Rodney is unlikely to be a safe haven for saves all year, whether it’s due to poor performance and a role change or a strong performance and a mid-season trade but owners should be happy with the clean save nonetheless. Rodney is certainly secure for now but Brandon Maurer is the guy to own as a handcuff.

• Jumbo Diaz received the ball in the eighth inning tonight and blew the lead for the Reds. It’s early on but Diaz’ 3.86/6.64/4.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line is certainly less than impressive. J.J. Hoover isn’t a stud by any means but with Diaz and Tony Cingrani (who gave up two runs of his own for the loss) struggling his job remains secure.

•Quick Hits: David Robertson threw a scoreless ninth for his third save of the year. Robertson’s ERA was a little inflated last year at 3.41 but his underlying numbers were strong as normal and he remains a great option. After Chris Davis gave the O’s the lead, Britton pitched around a Mookie Betts solo shot for his third save as well. Jonathan Papelbon (4), Mark Melancon (3) and Hector Rondon (2) also recorded clean saves tonight.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Since we share Oscar Wilde’s view that moderation is a fatal thing, and believe that Moore (Ray Moore, 1957, 11 Wins, 3.90 ERA, 1.355 WHIP) is Moore (Matt Moore, 2012, 11 Wins, 3.81 ERA, 1.348 WHIP), more or less, we filled out our already-crammed dance card on Sunday with an on-line auction in the Bluefish Blitz League. The BBL features among its owners some well-known Fantasy figures, and provides motive, means, and opportunity to be predatory if that’s your weltanschauung. It also has rules sufficiently different from anyone else’s to make preparation-from-scratch essential, even if you’ve already done so many drafts, auctions, and blogs that you can’t remember which leagues you’re in, much less which players you’ve got in each of them.

The rules: 20 teams, each with $250 in play money to spend on 9 hitters (i.e. a full lineup, including a UT guy), 11 pitchers, and a 5-man bench that can include pitchers if you’re so inclined. 5×5 with a couple of wrinkles on the hitting side: OBP, SLG, and NSB instead of BA, HR, and SB. Draconian innings-pitched limits at both ends (1000 IP minimum, 1458 [i.e. 162×9] maximum), and no more than 162 games played per each hitting position. Daily transactions of every conceivable variety are not only permitted but encouraged and applauded. The concept, obviously, is to approximate “real” major league rosters and team management.

It was, in some ways, gratifying to discover that these guys (or we guys, if you care to flatter us) don’t know anything more than you (or we, if you care not to flatter us) do if you’ve been paying attention. At about noon on Sunday, Ken Giles went for $19 in this league, while Luke Gregerson went for $6. At about 9 on Monday morning, Houston manager A.J. Hinch announced that Gregerson would be his closer. Even granting that Giles probably takes over as soon as Gregerson blows a save, we imagine that those prices would have been nearly transposed if the draft had been held a day later or Hinch had less of a flair for drama.

We didn’t set out to be contrarian in this league, but as it developed, we were. We decided that (1) the league rules made platooning and DFS-style day-to-day matchups a possibility for hitters, and (2) our unwholesome in-season obsessive attention to detail would enable us to optimize our hitting while not running afoul of the 162-game limit. We accordingly decided to pay extra for our bench players, and not to put any pitchers on our bench. We also decided to go with 6 starting pitchers. We thought that many teams would pursue this strategy, but only one did, at least in its pure form (the strategy, we mean, not the team).

Here’s our roster, listed in the order in which we acquired it. For a bit of context, Trout went for $59, Harper for $56, Kershaw for $52, and Goldschmidt for $50…

Drew Smyly, $15
Stephen Vogt, $10
Xavier Cedeno, $3
Chris Davis, $34
Corey Kluber $31
Cody Allen $24
Kole Calhoun $10
Ben Revere $13
Mark Melancon $21
Jose Quintana $11
Elvis Andrus $10
Randal Grichuk $8
Danny Valencia $2
Joe Ross $7
Trevor Plouffe $5
Pedro Alvarez $11
Brock Holt $3
Stephen Piscotty $5
Welington Castillo $2
Jonathan Schoop $7
Chris Owings $5
Zach McAllister $3
Matt Moore $7
Nate Jones $1

…which, now that we type it out in the merciless daylight after a night spent with this squad, doesn’t look as good to us as it looked in the smoky fluorescence of the tavern at 2 Monday morning while the bartender emptied the till and set the chairs upside-down on the tables. So we’ll see.

But one thing we did in this league may be of use to you and us down the road. A month ago, we identified some starting pitchers who qualified for the Holy Trinity and the Holy Quadrinity—two different approaches to granular stats designed to identify guys who pitched better than it might have looked like they did last season. With relief pitchers at something of a premium in the BBL, we took the same approaches to relievers who threw more than 30 innings in relief last year. Eight guys qualifed for both the Trinity and the Quadrinity. Two—uh, three–are closers (Zach Britton, Hector Rondon, and Gregerson). Two others are injured, and not in ways that bode especially well for their return (Carson Smith, Aaron Loup). The other three are Will Harris (well-known as a capable seventh-inning guy, and orphaned, a bit surprisingly, in the BBL, though we might have taken him at the end if Jones hadn’t been available); Xavier Cedeno (whom we got, contentedly, for $3, and who is a candidate to close some games for Tampa Bay); and Sean Gilmartin.

Gilmartin’s the really interesting one. He’s a former first-rounder who kicked around for a while as a starter until the Mets took him as a Rule 5 pick in December 2014. He was superb in long relief last season, and, though he’s left-handed, actually did better against right-handed hitters. The Mets optioned him to AAA a few days ago, evidently with the idea of making him a starter again. And indeed, it’s not clear why a left-hander who can get righties out and has a tepid fastball but a four-pitch repertoire wouldn’t fit in as a starter. Of course, that’s what the Braves and Twins thought when they had him. We nonetheless predict that the reconversion will work, and that he will prove to be a better pitcher than (former Rule Fiver) Logan Verrett, who’s his competition for the sixth-starter role. If, for whatever reason, Gilmartin gets summoned to start a game or games this season, we’re going to grab him, unless one of the bluefish grabs him first.

• As expected, the Astros looked towards Luke Gregerson with their first save chance of the year and he rewarded the team with a clean save, throwing a perfect inning along with a strikeout against the Yankees. Ken Giles threw in the eighth allowing a solo shot to Didi Gregorious but otherwise looked effective, striking out two. Giles’ velocity (96.4 mph) was in line with last season and I would expect him and Gregerson to comprise a darn effective end of game tandem moving forward.

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• It seemed like a safe guess that Ken Giles would be closing games in Houston after the Astros gave up some real talent (Mark Appel, Vincent Velasquez and others) for him this offseason but A.J. Hinch announced that Luke Gregerson will be the closer to start the year. Baseball wise this might be a solid decision, especially if Giles can be used more freely in the seventh or eighth innings in higher leverage situations.  Gregerson is no slouch though, having saved 31 games in 36 tries last year with a 3.10/2.86/2.71 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. For what it’s worth, Hinch said that Gregerson will be the “primary closer”, which doesn’t suggest a committee but Giles could see save opportunities as well.

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