A couple of postponed games and blowouts but here’s a few notes on the bullpens last night…

• The Rays used five pitchers for a two hit shutout against the Orioles tonight, which was capped off by Alex Colome’s fifth save. Colome took very kindly to the bullpen full time last year posting career bests in his strikeout rate and walk rates but the strikeouts have eluded him early on this year. It’s only been 10 innings but Colome has a meager five strikeouts and a swinging strike percentage of 8.2%, well below last season’s 15.1%. This isn’t to say that Colome could fall drastically in the same way I spoke about Brandon Kintzler last night, but his .179 BABIP might be making his owners overrate his standing among the elite relievers. Colome’s a good closer and I wouldn’t be mining for his backups but his shiny ERA is a bit misleading thus far. I expect him to continue to have a solid year but I would love to see his whiff percentage/strikeouts increase over his next few outings.

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• Brad Brach had his 10th scoreless appearance tonight getting his fourth save on the year. Brach most likely will give up a run this year and he won’t run a .063 much longer but his FIP/xFIP is currently at 1.50/2.96, proving he’s pretty damn good and not just benefiting from some batted ball luck. Brach will continue to close while Britton is on the DL with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens setting up. O’Day has been more effective in his last couple of appearances but has been shakier than normal this year. He’s been a staple in the O’s pen for so long that I think Showalter will give him a pretty long leash but if he keeps struggling, Givens could leapfrog him on the totem pole. In between blaming Dustin Pedroia for not controlling his teammates, Britton can be found playing catch and should be back in Baltimore soon. Brach is certainly worth owning even if he’s not seeing the ninth inning, and so long as Britton is on the shelf he’s a near top tier option for saves.

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• Washington, woof. Both the political arena and the bullpen are a mess right now. Blake Treinen entered the game in the ninth as he normally does and proceeded to allow four baserunners while only recording one out. With the bases loaded, Shawn Kelley came on and got a foul out and a strikeout to end the game for his first save of the year. The silver lining here is that Blake Treinen got his first hold of the year which tells you how useful of a stat that is. Shawn Kelley has been a good reliever for Washington but he never really was given a fair chance to close and I’m not sure if this necessarily changes the calculus.

Either way I’m putting the Nationals situation on red alert. Koda Glover was the early candidate to close games before Treinen was named and it’s possible he could receive a save opportunity soon as well. According to Dusty, the Nationals will likely be making a change at closer and I would go Glover then Kelley but it could be a coin flip. Sidenote: would anyone be surprised if Dusty literally flipped a coin? Whoever ends up receiving the next save opportunities, the Nationals would still need some help in the bullpen so my guess is that the team saves leader may not even be on the team currently. They acquired Mark Melancon last year and they will be linked to any and all trade rumors for saves. You should still go run and pick up Glover and Kelley though.

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Well, that was a pretty eventful weekend for closers, let’s get to it with some news from today as well…

• Zach Britton has dreaded soreness in his forearm and was placed on the 10-Day DL. I say dreaded because of a common connection with the elbow but Britton is saying he won’t need a MRI. I’m assuming that’s a good thing and not the Orioles trying to save a buck. Either way, Brad Brach should see save chances in Britton’s place with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens behind him. From 2009 to 2015 O’Day had a 2.07 ERA in 400.1 innings but last year it jumped to 3.77 and he’s been rusty to the start of this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Givens leapfrog O’Day here.

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• Oakland was up four runs heading into the eighth inning today and they called on Santiago Casilla with Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols due up. If it was a smaller lead we likely would have seen higher leverage extraordinaire Ryan Madson in that spot (heart of the lineup) but with four runs it was Casilla. Casilla retired the side 1-2-3 and in the ninth handed the ball off to Sean Doolittle who allowed a base hit but struck out three in the process. As we have mentioned in these parts this week, Madson is the “closer” but on days where the eighth inning is a higher priority we will likely see Casilla and Doolittle in the ninth, and likely in that order.

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• Addressing the committees (again). Cam Bedrosian should be the closer for the Angels but Scioscia is calling it a committee for now. While one should be inclined to believe what the coach says, the other alternatives for saves are currently the oft-injured Andrew Bailey and the currently injured Huston Street. Even when Street returns, the chances of him pitching particularly well don’t seem particularly high. I would suspect this is an early season hedge by Scioscia and consider Bedrosian fairly safe for now, in spite of the dreaded committee tag.

Similarly in Oakland, the A’s might be running a committee approach after Santiago Casilla received the first save chance. Ryan Madson was originally our designated closer but he came on in the eighth to get Mike Trout, leaving Casilla to the ninth which is the kind of mix-and-matchup one would expect in a committee. While the Angels seem to be playing pretend, I’m calling the A’s an actual committee. Expect Madson to see the higher leverage situations not necessarily in the ninth inning (especially against righties) with Sean Doolittle and Casilla also in the mix.

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This is not a “sleeper” list. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Friday everyone! There have been quite a few updates since our last check-in so let’s get started…

• As expected, Aroldis Chapman signed with the New York Yankees. Along with some concerns about his off the field conduct, Chapman certianly will boost the Yankees bullpen. We saw this last year with the three-headed monster that also included Andrew Miller. Brian Cashman is still looking for a lefty in the pen and although he won’t find an Andrew Miller, the Chapman, Betances, Tyler Clippard and co. grouping should still be elite. The Yankees will give Luis Severino a fair shot to make it in the rotation but consider myself aligned with the skeptics. He has struggled to find a third pitch, he can’t consistently put hitters away, and navigating a lineup multiple times has been an issue. But damn does he look compelling in the pen! He’s currently far closer to starting games than finishing them but I like Severino in the bullpen for multiple innings, strikeouts and ratio help, if/when he ends up there.

Yankees Updated Grid: Aroldis Chapman // Dellin Betances // Tyler Clippard // Luis Severino (Sleeper)

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It’s too early in the offseason to put together an updated grid as there are too many open spaces due to both Free Agency and unassigned roles. However, we won’t let the Bullpen Report be forgotten this winter and once a week we will check in with updates around the league that will affect your yearly chase for saves and holds.

• With relief aces Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and in some respects, Mark Melancon still on the market, the Cardinals went straight for Brett Cecil locking him up for four years and $30.5M. Dave Cameron listed Cecil has a potential 2017 bargain and Cecil signed a more team-friendly deal than Cameron even projected. Seung Hwan Oh is entrenched in the closer’s chair in St. Louis but with Trevor Rosenthal working to become a starter, Cecil should find his way to some high leverage innings along with fellow lefty Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have a lot of starting pitching depth, so Rosenthal isn’t assured a rotation spot by any means but it does mean his days of pitching high leverage spots in St. Louis might be coming to an end. Relief roles are changing rapidly, especially during the playoffs and while it’s impossible to carry over Andrew Miller’s October usage to April, it is possible that more teams will have relievers for multiple innings and that’s what I would guess the Cardinals are doing here.

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Joe Camp won his league, probably because he reads us and listens to our podcasts here, I dunno, but that’s my guess, totally not because he’s an Associate Professor of electrical engineering. Anyway, he won his league, and his leaguemates started chirping about a couple trades he made that year that may have appeared lopsided at the time — my personal opinion is that vetoes suck, and are a dampener on league activity, and we should all be active and talking to each other as much as possible, so if you were on it, you would have made that lopsided trade first — and so Mr. Camp set out to prove he would have won the league anyway.

The way he did it? He took the worst team in the league and replaced everyone on the team with the best free agent pickups of the year. He then compared that team with everyone’s originally drafted teams. The free agents easily won — 96 points to 87 for the best drafted team.

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