Bullpen Report: April 17, 2017
Well, that was a pretty eventful weekend for closers, let’s get to it with some news from today as well…
• Zach Britton has dreaded soreness in his forearm and was placed on the 10-Day DL. I say dreaded because of a common connection with the elbow but Britton is saying he won’t need a MRI. I’m assuming that’s a good thing and not the Orioles trying to save a buck. Either way, Brad Brach should see save chances in Britton’s place with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens behind him. From 2009 to 2015 O’Day had a 2.07 ERA in 400.1 innings but last year it jumped to 3.77 and he’s been rusty to the start of this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Givens leapfrog O’Day here.
• The Sam Dyson saga continues! After throwing one scoreless inning in his last appearance, Dyson was back in the ninth on Sunday and proceeded to allow five baserunners, two runs and his third loss and blown save. Classic Dyson this year. He has since gone to the 10-Day DL with a hand contusion. In his place the Rangers called up Keone Kela and since he’s a live human who throws baseballs in relief he could possibly see some high leverage innings. It looks like Matt Bush will get the first crack at saves. His shoulder was acting up earlier so it’s unlikely he will be tasked to pitch many back-to-backs at least to start, so Jeremy Jeffress, Keone Kela, Jose Leclerc and others could also see a save chance or two. If Bush’s arm holds up, he figures to give you strikeouts and saves without walking many guys either which is also known as a fine closer.
• Joaquin Benoit blew his first save of the year on Sunday and while he has Hector Neris breathing down his neck, the job is still his at the moment. Benoit has been a very good reliever for quite a while now, I don’t think his first bad outing will take him out of the closer’s chair. However, his walk rate might be worth looking at. Benoit hasn’t even throw enough innings to get a quality start this year but his walk rate is at a career high and it has basically been trending up for a several years now. If Benoit keeps walking guys at a career high rate, it will likely be Neris’ job soon. If not, he’ll probably be pitching on another team this summer and the job will go to Neris.
• While relievers like Benoit haven’t qualified for a quality start yet, Chris Devenski is basically just pitching like a (damn good) starter right now. Devenski threw two perfect frames today striking out four and now has a 21/1 K/BB ratio in 11 innings out of relief this season. He now supports a 0.82/0.57/0.26 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line just to show how dominant he’s been. If he keeps this up more teams will try to mimic his usage or it’s possible the Astros will save the cost of acquiring an ace at the deadline and start throwing him in the first inning. Luke Gregerson threw a perfect eighth for the hold and Ken Giles closed his third door throwing a perfect inning of his own with two strikeouts. Gregerson and Giles both have ERAs starting with a 7 but as tonight shows, their jobs are safe.
• Things might be getting interesting-ish in San Diego. Ryan Buchter blew a one-run lead in the eighth inning tonight after Freddie Freeman hit his second longball of the day. In the bottom of the ninth, Maurer gave up three hits and the game-winning single to Dansby Swanson (maybe he is the next Captain Clutch). Maurer is pitching better than his 5.79 ERA would indicate this year but Buchter and Brad Hand might be the best relievers on the team. That is until Carter Capps comes back at least. Capps was ineffective in a rehab appearance in AAA on Sunday but he’s likely en route to San Diego soon. He’s not guaranteed anything upon his return but Maurer owners can’t feel too great about his long term save potential if he’s the fourth best reliever on the team.
Jim Johnson vultured his second win of the year and lowered his ERA to 1.29. The Braves have young and sexy names behind JJ but consider me bullish on him as the Braves attempt to be respectable in their new stadium. That may not end up possible come July but for a guy who’s seemingly been red or yellow for a few years now on the grid, it’s nice to see some solid green for the time being.
• Craig Kimbrel picked up his sixth save of the year for Boston, finishing their early Marathon Day game. If I’m being honest, I didn’t rank him among the elite closers this year so it’s likely that he heard those whispers and decided to go bonkers again. In seven innings this year Kimbrel has allowed one run and 12 strikeouts, basically what he’s done for the previous seven years. With all of that said, it was the third game in a row for Kimbrel so if there is a save chance tomorrow expect Matt Barnes to get a look.
• Seung Hwan Oh has been very rocky to the start of the season. He picked up hist first save on the year but not before allowing two hits and a run in the process. It’s (very) early but his 9.53/8.40/7.48 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line doesn’t look to fabulous. His fastball is more or less on par with last year but he’s not generating the same swings and misses early this year. Trevor Rosenthal pitched a perfect eighth and looks to be next in line in St. Louis. Again, it’s (very) early but Rosie’s control eluded him last year and it’s nice to see him throw 100 mph fastballs in even just 2.1 innings without walking a batter this year.
• With a few runners on and a three-run lead the Yankees brought in Aroldis Chapman who secured his fourth save on the year. In 5.1 innings Chapman has issued just one walk across his eight strikeouts. Chapman lowered his BB% to a career best 8.1% last season and it’s even better than that early on in 2017. Chapman isn’t suffering any velocity decline and he obviously can’t throw 100 forever but if he offsets any loss with increased control he should remain on top of his game for quite a while. If he’s able keep the same swing and miss stuff with a walk rate in line with the best relievers, well then he’s just that more incredible.
• Neftali Feliz started the inning allowing a hit and a walk but eluded it unscathed for his fifth save of the year after he got a double play and struck out Kyle Schwarber for the final out. If you follow fantasy baseball you’re likely already aware he’s throwing 97 with success. What’s not as common knowledge is Corey Knebel who threw another scoreless inning today, keeping his ERA at 0.00. He also has 10 strikeouts against three walks and will likely join Neftali Feliz on the trade block come July. Last note on the Brewers bullpen is Jacob Barnes who struck out the side in the seventh, keeping his ERA at 0.00 as well. I’ve added him to the grid and if he keeps this up, consider him a deep deep sleeper if/when trade rumors heat up in the summer.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Cody Allen racked up his third save tonight despite a tense at-bat against Miguel Sano with the the tying run on second and then having to face certified Indians killer Joe Mauer with the bases loaded. Granted, that’s classic Allen, who sometimes seems like he’s channeling Bob Wickman every time he takes the mound, so it’s hard to draw any conclusions there.
“ocody allen, king of the wild frontier.”
This does seem to be his MO for a non-meh closer especially.
The Indians in the regular season at least are settling with Miller not receiving many 9th inning looks, all though that could be a coincidence/circumstantial. I expect Allen to still see the vast majority of looks.
Francona has said more than once that Allen is “the guy”, and that he trusts him to lock down the ninth. Frankly, I do as well. He’s remarkably consistent despite his apparent inconsistency.
ARCHIE
Nothing regarding Treinen?
I’ve scoured Twitter for any info from Dusty or best writers and there’s nothing to be found. I have to think they REALLY don’t want Kelly in the role.
It was a long recap, forgot about Washington. This situation could be “red” now but there’s been no word of any change.
Do you see, or feel, that Archie Bradley is inching his way up? He has been used similar to Devenski, but seems to be moving closer to a traditional high leverage RP than anything else. Thoughts?
This is an interesting one. I think I will update the chart tonight having Bradley in the 2nd chair, which is somewhat of a hedge. The next few appearances will be very telling, if he remains a one-inning guy or if they throw him earlier for longer.
Is there anyone else on here that scours for SP eligible guys of value at RP, like Devenki, Bradley, Nicasio, etc? Especially, since I am in a Saves+Holds league.
I mean, I don’t know about scour, but I definitely keep an eye out and try to keep a running list in my head. Guys I’m especially keeping an eye on separated by purported role (note: these pertain to the only websites where I own teams, which are Yahoo and Fleaflicker. I can’t speak to ESPN or any other fantasy baseball site’s designation of players):
CLOSERS
Raisel Iglesias is a super obvious one as the head of a bit of a closer committee, but worth mentioning every SP/RP who’s worth something in terms of saves or holds.
SETUP MEN
David Phelps has had SP/RP eligibility for multiple years now, so I assume he’s already on people’s radars. He sets up sometimes for the Marlins, although they don’t use the same setup guy every time. Ziegler and Barraclough have set up at times so far as well. I think that’s just how Mattingly rolls.
Jorge da la Rosa has two holds on the season, most recently on 4/16. He’s been used in multiple high leverage/late inning situations so far. CloserMonkey lists him as the setup guy for the Dbacks, although I’m not sure he’s completely taken over that role yet.
7TH INNING GUYS
Archie Bradley has been mentioned a couple times in Bullpen Reports and a bunch of times in the comments of these Reports, but, again, I’m trying to make a comprehensive list. He sometimes gets 7ths for the Dbacks
Shane Greene has gotten some high-leverage innings, which is why he’s on the chart for the Tigers. He also doesn’t always get the 7th.
6TH INNING/MISCELLANEOUS
One you mentioned, Juan Nicasio, gets some higher leverage innings. He seems more like a 6th inning guy to me, though, which obviously carries lesser value even in holds leagues.
Bud Norris has pitched in the 7th three times (including tonight, 4/18) when the Angels held leads of 3 runs or less. I haven’t seen him mentioned anywhere in terms of being a top setup/7th inning/holds guy, but the Angels’ bullpen seems like a mess behind Bedrosian right now, so the opportunity is certainly there for him to step up a bit.
Tyler Duffey pitched the 7th and the 8th of a close game, then in the 6th of another close one, but his last hold was on 4/7, so I don’t think he’s especially noteworthy.
Chris Devenski, as mentioned in Bullpen Reports and by you, has been awesome for the Astros so far and will probably get the occasional hold here or there, but I don’t think he’ll be part of their late inning plans consistently. He’s more of a valuable longman out of the pen.