In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.
Brandon Morrow has always been an enigma to me. He has great stuff, but just can seem to put it all together for one good season. I am going to try to look at similar pitchers from the recent past to see if there is any hope of him breaking out.
Since the right-handed pitcher broke into the league with Seattle in 2007, here is where he ranks among the 156 starting pitchers with 400 or more innings.
K/9: 1st (10.0 K/9)
BB/9: 149th (4.5 BB/9)
% of PA that end in a BB or K: 1st (37.3%)
Brandon is a true outcome pitcher with most at bats ending up as either a walk or a strikeout. Besides being a true outcome pitcher, his career ERA has been significantly worse than his ERA predictors:
ERA: 4.37
FIP: 3.85
xFIP: 3.94
SIERA: 3.71
As stat geeks, we are quick to tell less nerdy baseball fans that spring training stats mean nothing. Whether it’s the tiny sample size, the varying level of competition, the experimenting with new pitches/mechanics/stances etc, there is a ton of noise clouding the data. Even with the obvious explanations, there have still been studies performed to determine whether spring stats have any significance. Sure enough, historical studies have confirmed that spring training stats have limited value.
Yesterday, I made some bold predictions for the league leaders in the five fantasy hitting categories. Today, I check in on the pitching side of the ledger with some equally crazy forecasts.
We — collectively — are going to steal Mike Podhorzer’s idea and make some crazy predictions for the coming season. Every year, something happens to surprise baseball viewership. Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman come to mind over the past few years.
So let’s try to open our minds and let crazy in for some fun. Then we’ll look back at the end of the season and see which RotoGraphs staff member can access the other side most effectively — then we’ll scoot down the bench a little away from him.
1) No player will hit 40 home runs this year. Obviously Mike Stanton and Jose Bautista loom large, but there were only three guys that managed the feat last year, and the point is that power is down. Handy graph time!
First off, thanks to everyone who gave me their suggestions on who to select first overall and provided strategy advice when I asked you all to help me win the inaugural LABR mixed league. We held the draft on Sat. night and it was great to already get back into the swing of the fantasy season. I have never drafted this early, so having a fantasy team before March begins is exciting! Though as expected there were several times where my player was taken literally right before my pick, I am very pleased with how my team turned out.
Ryan Braun will not have to serve a 50 day suspension for performance enhancing drugs. While many ramifications may come from this ruling, I will get to the meat of the matter. How does the ruling affect his and his teammates fantasy value?
Ryan now jumps up from a late 2nd to 5th round pick with the suspension, to being one of the first players taken. Before the news was released, many people considered him the top pick in the draft. This high ranking should not change, but it may just a bit.
Some people love following prospects from the time the players are in high school and college to when they make it to the majors. I am not one of those people. It is important to have some idea of which prospects may have a impact in an upcoming fantasy baseball season. To keep the process simple every year, I create a combined ranking of different prospect rankings and merge them into one composite ranking. This year ranking ended using 7 different lists (I waited until Baseball America released their list to make it complete). Seven minds are better than one, especially if the one mind is mine.
We get weird. Beers, baseball, sandwiches, fantasy baseball, keepers, music, hair, mustaches — this is the chat where it’s all in play. I’ll be here at noon-thirty to moderate the madness.
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our fifth (and final) over/under game, let’s take a look at Chris Young the outfielder.
The over/under for today’s game is 21. As in, will Chris Young hit more than 21 home runs in 2012?
If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jeff Zimmerman’s excellent piece about playing through injuries and the effect that has on projections. And you could learn more about Young’s batted ball distance after he injured his thumb half-way through last year.
But since you don’t have Zimmerman’s research at your fingertips — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of home runs that Chris Young the outfielder will hit in the coming season. Use any methods at your disposal.
Have at it!
