Archive for Meta Analysis

I am humbled by the interest in my expected isolated power (xISO) equation since its inception. A fairly simple but helpful tool, I take solace in hoping it maybe has helped one fantasy owner identify a smart buy-low candidate — or reluctantly cut bait on Carlos Gonzalez. I also appreciate the feedback and recommendations for improvement and expansion. I will take care to consider their implementation when I have more available time.

It’s important to remember that Steamer and ZiPS also provide updated and rest-of-season (RoS) projections for most players. Hitter ISOs aren’t listed on the page listing all projections — only slugging (SLG) and batting average (BA) are included, forcing the user to perform some light arithmetic — but ISOs are listed on each hitter’s personal page. And they are not fundamentally different from the expected ISOs I have calculated for you today (spoiler alert). For reference, I crunched the correlation coefficients of every qualified hitter’s current xISO versus his current Steamer and ZiPS ISO projections:

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Fantasy owners are heavily influenced by the forces of recency bias. A hitter is in the midst of a hot streak, having hit .400 over the last week with a pair of long balls? Pick him up! Unfortunately, we know that such streaks have limited, if any, predictive value, resulting in this strategy usually being a losing one. But that’s not always the case, as a hot streak could lead to increased playing time and we’re always chasing at-bats (and innings pitched). So let’s take a gander at which players have been added the most in CBS leagues over the last week and determine whether picking them up is a good move. Obviously, context plays a huge role in decisions like these, but since we have no such information, we’ll do our best.

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Strikes are good. Your favorite starting pitcher throwing a higher rate of them is a wonderful sign. In fact, I like to identify high strikeout starters with control issues as breakout candidates. Control is much easier to improve upon then strikeout rate and it tends to get better with maturity. So let’s take a look at eight American League starting pitchers throwing a higher rate of overall strikes than last season. For context, the league average Str% is 64.2%

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The older we get, the more awed we are by catchers and the more literally unthinkable we find what they do. Our imaginary lives are as richly textured as the next stat geek’s, and now and then, in the kingdoms of our own minds, you might find us pretending that we’re thirty or forty years younger, and far better baseball players than we ever were. But though we might imagine ourselves hitting Stargellesque home runs, throwing Koufaxian pitches, or making Robinsonable plays in the field, we just can’t conceive of getting into and out of a crouch as often as catchers must and do. Our geriatric knees just won’t let us get our geriatric minds around the possibility.

But being able to crouch that much and that often is of course merely one part of a catcher’s job. As you know, he’s also got to call pitches, block the bad ones, frame the good ones, throw out base stealers, pounce on bunts, and, so it’s said, serve as the on-field team’s prefrontal cortex. So it’s unreasonable to expect catchers to hit very much, and in fact, many of them don’t. Read the rest of this entry »

The batted ball distribution metrics, for both pitchers and hitters, are some of the most stable statistics around. A pitcher’s ground ball rate stabilizes after just 70 batters faced, which is basically just three starts. So what this means is that when we see a significant change in a player’s batted ball mix, we have to take it seriously. Let’s take a look at the starting pitcher’s who have enjoyed the largest surges in their ground ball rates and see if we could uncover an explanation.

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It can’t be easy to be the manager of a major league baseball team. True, the pay and the perks aren’t bad, and a lot of guys don’t mind the travel. But for one thing, there’s the uniform. It really serves no practical purpose, and even if you’re relatively young and relatively trim, like Kevin Cash or Joe Girardi, you’d still look better in a nice crisp Zegna. If you’re not and you’re not, you might as well be wearing a clown suit.

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Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who have enjoyed the biggest increases in their batted ball distances this season. The list should mainly be used for validation purposes as for the most part, it should confirm a power spike. Today it’s time to look at those hitters who have experienced the largest declines in their distances. Owners must hope these drop-offs are merely small sample size flukes.

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Last week, I discussed the hitters whose average batted ball distances suggest significant HR/FB rate upside. This time, I’ll share a list that is to be used for validation purposes. Is that batter currently enjoying a power spike hitting the ball much further than last year? Let’s find out.

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Last week, I introduced xISO, a metric that calculates a player’s expected isolated power based on his batted ball profile (per FanGraphs’ recently added batted ball data courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions). Having looked at a handful of underachieving National League outfielders for its induction, I’ll expand the analysis of xISO here today.

I’ll reiterate some key points. I used all 12 years’ worth of batted ball data for all player-seasons in which a hitter qualified for the batting title. The OLS regression specified pull rate (Pull%), hard-hit rate (Hard%) and fly ball rate (FB%) as explanatory variables and produced the following equation, which I deliberately omitted last week:

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So here’s this starting pitcher who arrived in the Major Leagues in 2013 at age 23, made 10 starts, 7 of them Quality Starts, and posted the best ERA of any rookie starter in the American League. Yet he got not a single Rookie of the Year vote, and was paid no pre-season attention by the Fantasy experts in 2014—he wasn’t even taken in the 15-team, 29-round Tout Wars mixed draft. And the experts were right: he started the 2014 season 0-6 before being sent to the minors. Of course, he got no support from his hitters (12 runs in 7 starts).

But he did in fact pitch pretty badly: he’s fortunate his record wasn’t minus 1-6. But then the guy gets it together in Triple-A, comes back up for good in July, and makes 15 starts, 10 of them QS. Nonetheless, he was again almost universally ignored in drafts this year. Maybe that’s because he had a terrible spring training, though that may have been due to the injury that has kept him on the disabled list for the first month-plus of the season. But he’s finally healthy, and has made two minor-league rehab starts. Unfortunately, the first one was dismal. Fortunately, the second one was superb. Read the rest of this entry »