Batted Ball Distance Decliners

Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who have enjoyed the biggest increases in their batted ball distances this season. The list should mainly be used for validation purposes as for the most part, it should confirm a power spike. Today it’s time to look at those hitters who have experienced the largest declines in their distances. Owners must hope these drop-offs are merely small sample size flukes.

Yup, that’s Dexter Fowler bringing up the rear of the batted ball distance leaderboard. He’s essentially tied with big bopper slap hitter Ben Revere. That’s embarrassing. Somehow, he’s still managed to hit three homers and his HR/FB rate is identical to what he posted last year. You didn’t draft him expecting more than 10 homers to begin with, so his appearance here doesn’t matter a whole lot. The good news is that he’s running again, clearly thanks to Joe Maddon.

With Nick Franklin back from the disabled list and Logan Forsythe hitting real well, Asdrubal Cabrera could begin to lose playing time. Nothing in his profile is encouraging.

Matt Adams has posted an average distance mark a mere two feet more than Revere. Sad. Without his power and his typical inflated BABIP to at least make him look like a slightly rich man’s James Loney, he’s become worthless. I’m not sure what’s going on here, but I’m certainly not buying low.

How much of Victor Martinez’s slow start is due to his knee injury and how much of it is simply a 36 year old coming crashing down to Earth? At his age, it was silly to have expected him to come anywhere close to his production last year, even if he had been completely healthy. The strikeout rate is up as well and his Pull% is back down to where it had been in the two years prior to last year’s resurgence. He’ll no doubt improve, but he’s basically Billy Butler.

So much for Matt Kemp’s second half surge last year. The good news is that his strikeout rate has dipped below 20% for the first time. But a deeper look reveals what has driven that improved mark — he’s swinging at a career high clip, but not really making any better contact. So swinging more often has killed his walk rate and also improved his strikeout rate. Troubling is also a career high O-Swing%. At least he’s still stealing bases for as infrequently he’s been on base.

So maybe last year was a 100% total fluke for Steve Pearce? But be aware that this is truly a tiny sample size, based on just 12 fly balls + homers. Aside from the loss of power, a .203 BABIP is killing him.

It would have been hard to repeat a 309 average distance, but this is still a surprising decline for George Springer. And so far it hasn’t even affected his home run output as his HR/FB rate is nearly as high as it was last season. That won’t continue though unless the distance creeps back up.

Heading into 2014, I loved Oswaldo Arcia as a serious power sleeper. I was proven right, even though that’s all he contributed. But this off-season Arcia battled back issues and I therefore wanted no part of him. Yet, he still received considerable hype which I couldn’t understand. Sure enough, his distance has tumbled, though because he has been on the disabled list, it also comes over a tiny sample. Don’t get too excited about the improved strikeout rate — his SwStk% is a disgusting 19.6%, more than double the league average.

Khris Davis is walking more and his BABIP has jumped like I thought it should, but he is striking out at a much higher rate and his distance has plummeted. I’d probably hold as an owner as there are some good signs here, but not enough to tempt me to buy low.

Michael Brantley enjoyed a fantasy dream season last year and has started 2015 just where he left off…or has he? His HR/FB rate is identical, but his distance has declined precipitously. The good news is that he’s pulling the ball even more than the career high mark he notched last year, he sports a crazy 17/7 BB/K ratio (yes, that’s just five strikeouts in 133 plate appearances) and he’s stealing bases at a similar pace to last year. Even if he drops back to a low-to-mid teens homer pace, he’ll remain mighty valuable.

It was prudent to expect a power decline from Jayson Werth as he recovered from shoulder surgery to begin the season and his .079 ISO validates the concerns we had. At just about age 36, those steals could disappear at any moment and his health may no longer cooperate. I’d hate to sell low here as he remains in the middle of a pretty good lineup, but I wouldn’t expect a big bounce back.