• Lance McCullers will start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder.

“There’s just not going to be enough time to build him up for the role in which we anticipate him doing,” manager A.J. Hinch said Wednesday morning. “I told him that this morning so he’d be assured he’s not trying to hit a deadline of Opening Day trying to impress anybody. We want him back healthy as soon as possible, but it’s not going to be Opening Day.”

McCullers has been sidelined since a March 6 throwing session. He reported soreness the following day, and when it didn’t subside quickly, an MRI was done. That MRI was clean, but McCullers still has some soreness and doesn’t know when he’ll resume throwing.

“We’re kind of taking it day by day,” McCullers said. “I’m feeling a lot better. It’s just up to the training staff and the team. They have my best interests in mind. We have the long-term goals in mind. I’m taking it day by day and going off what they say. It’s just getting all the soreness out.”

I am not surprised McCullers has an arm injury with four major injury factors (throws hard, throws a ton of breaking balls, unestablished starters, previous injury). I like his potential, but I may look to be selling once he comes back healthy.

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• It is an extra-long MASH Report today because I spent last week in Costa Rica. Much of the older injury news I will just give a small mention.

• Jhonny Peralta will be out 10-12 weeks with a torn thumb ligament.

It’s uncertain when Peralta will be able to return to normal baseball activities, but it likely won’t be for at least two months or more.

“I haven’t heard an exact date that I feel comfortable passing around, but that’s been kind of the earmark date, 10-12 weeks,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Wednesday, prior to the Cardinals’ 7-2 loss to the Mets at Tradition Field. “There’s been some people who said even less, so we’ll wait and hear what the doctor says, when he thinks he can get back into activity and when he could likely be back to play.”

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• Jarrod Dyson is reportedly out for at least six weeks with a strained oblique

Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson, expected to be the team’s Opening Day right fielder, left Wednesday’s Cactus League opener against the Rangers after two innings because of a strained right oblique.

Strains happen and it will be interesting to see if the Royals pick up a player or promote from within.

The one point of contention I have with injury articles is the estimated time lost. Earlier in the offseason, I created a tool which looks at the average disabled list time for injured players. For hitters with oblique injuries, the average time lost is 36 with a median value of 27 days.

Try to keep this tool in mind when hearing about player injury return times.

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• I am not sure if Anibal Sanchez’s shoulder tendinitis will delay the start of his 2016 season. He is throwing off the mound right now with the possibility of returning in a week.

• Carter Capps chances of closing increased some with A.J. Ramos dealing with a strained calf. I still think Ramos has the inside track to be the closer if he can get back on the mound soon.

• I have been reporting that Tommy John surgery returners should be in the majors in about 14 months. It seems like the Braves are now looking at 16 months.

Instead of aiming to have Simmons back pitching on a rehab stint in about 12 months and back in the big leagues in 13-14 months, as they would have in the past, the Braves are aiming to have him back in the majors in May or June. That would be 15-16 months after his February 2015 surgery.

“I guess technically I’m healthy,” said Simmons, who has thrown a few times off the bullpen mound recently. “But they want to take me a little slower. They’re doing the new protocol that they’re going by, so we’re looking at about 14 months (before beginning a rehab assignment). I guess they just want to test it and see the success rates compared to the past.

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• The MASH report will be going bi-weekly from now until the season’s ends. I will not have any reports the week starting on March 7th as I will be on vacation.

• In last week’s MASH report I reported the first player was placed on the 60-day DL. Some confusion always exists around the 60-day DL, so here are the basics.

1. There is no requirement for a team to put any player on the 60-day DL. A player can be on the 15-day DL all season.
2. The reason for the 60-day DL is to open up a 40 man roster spot. Teams will wait to make this move when they have a need for an extra spot when a non-forty-man-roster rookie is called up to the majors or a free agent is signed. Not before. Five more players were added to the 60-day DL and each move was so the team could pick up an additional player.

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• Joe Mauer stated that since a 2013 concussion his vision has been affected.

Twins first baseman Joe Mauer told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that his vision has been affected by the concussion that ended his 2013 season, especially during day games, as the sun makes it tough for him to pick up the ball. Mauer’s offensive production has declined the past two seasons.

Mauer, who switched to first base in 2014 after sustaining the concussion from a foul tip while catching, is going to try something new this spring, as he’ll wear sunglasses while batting for the first time.
…
The statistics seem to back up Mauer’s assertions, as Mauer hit .248/.316/.354 with three homers and 25 RBIs in 61 day games last year, but batted .276/.352/.396 with seven homers and 41 RBIs in 97 night games. He also struck out in 17.4 percent of his plate appearances during the day, but had a strikeout rate of 16.5 percent during night games.

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• While looking through the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, I came across some information on reporting injuries. First, here is the form to be submitted to MLB to request a DL stint.

Additionally, there is quite a bit of information on reporting the various injuries starting on page 152 (page 165 of the .pdf). The major injury types are divided up into 12 classes: head, neck, shoulder, arm/elbow, wrist/hand/fingers, chest/back/spine, pelvis/hips, upper leg/thigh, lower leg/knee, ankle/foot/toes, internal organs, and ailments.

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• In my December 10th MASH article, I ran Rob Arthur’s projected days missed for hitters. Commentor jfee noted:

the total batter injury days projects out unrealistically low.
Projected days lost to injury – 2700
Days lost last year – 7643
Days lost prev year – 6015
Days lost year 3 – 5391

I can understand why player turnover would lead to the difference in actual injury from last year to yr3. But projecting that these same players will, next year, become so so healthy seems to involve PED’s (or perhaps a baseline injury rate – regression intercept – that hasn’t been included)

I finally found some time to look into the question and he was right. Using just linear regression and the inputs to the equation, I came up with the formula which set a min of 10 days missed per player:

Total DL days = 4.8 + .26 * age + 0.1 * DL Days in Year -1 + 0.03 * DL Days in Year -2 + 0.02 * DL Days in Year -3

Besides the age and constant, the other three numbers were close to Rob’s numbers:

Days missed this year = .18*(days missed last year) + .1*(days missed two years prior) + .02*(days missed three years prior) + .004*Player’s Age

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• After an injury filled 2015 season, Marco Gonzales will try to stay healthy in 2016, but will start the season as the Cardinals’ 6th starter.

With his shoulder strengthened and his mind clear, Gonzales can pitch himself back into the big-league mix this spring. While there’s not an obvious spot for him in the rotation, he will be jockeying for position on the depth chart. The Cardinals will also consider their three young, lefty starters — Gonzales, Cooney and Lyons — for possible bullpen inclusion.

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• Yesterday, I took requests for injury information and decided to go with Sam Berger’s request.

@jeffwzimmerman This maybe a really stupid idea: pitch type profile (ie frequency pitcher throws certain pitches) and odds of DL a/o TJ.

— CarrotJuice (@TheDudeOfNY) January 20, 2016

There were about 1000 routes I could have taken for the answer, but I went with the following:

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