Some interesting injuries to go over this week….some new things, but also a few updates on older injuries. Many of you are either just starting your league playoffs or it’s coming soon, so the most recent news is going to be of value. That being said, let’s get into what I have seen for the MASH report. If you’ve read this for the past couple of weeks, you know that I try to be responsive to the “Comments” section. If there’s someone specific you feel I missed, please jump in. I never want to over-promise/under-deliver, but I will make every effort to get to your question.

Andrew Benintendi, the Red Sox’ rookie phenom, definitely dodged a bullet with “only” a knee sprain, according to manager John Farrell. It is interesting to note that he says there’s no “structural damage” but it is a ligament sprain. But if they are saying he could still return, then that tells me it’s a minor (grade 1) sprain…remember that time you “rolled” your ankle trying to cross that dude over on the court? You hurt real bad for a while but then you were better? Yeah, something like that.

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The following is an experiment. I wanted to see if hitter exit velocity (EV) drops and by how much when a batter players through an injury. I am not sure before starting it where it would head and after a small stab at the data, I seemed to end up with more questions than answers.

The following may sound like a scientific study and in many ways, it is one. I am trying to take a theory and find a solution. Let me start with the theory.

First, injured players perform worse while playing through injury. I have tackled this idea as I looked back at the players’ stats the season before, of, and after the injury.

Talking to several hitters, they say they know when something is bugging them. They just can’t get hit the ball as hard as when they are healthy. Instead of trying to figure out if a player’s slump is from bad luck or injury, we have StatCast’s exit velocity to help us see if they are hitting the ball as hard.

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Let’s get to the injury updates/analysis….

Jung Ho Kang is on the 15-day DL with a left shoulder injury. No official word as to what he hurt, but the way he landed on it gives me some pause. Hopefully it is minor, and he did run off the field afterwards. These impact injuries could be anything in such a complex joint as the shoulder, from a collarbone fracture to a ligament sprain to a labral tear. Yes, non-pitchers can tear their labrum too. Tough timing because he was starting to hit the ball well.

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In last week’s MASH Report, I ran an up-to-date ranking of the of my pitcher injury finding metric, PAIN. The metric is supposed to find pitchers who are displaying traits of possible injuries. Reader, lostatlimbo, wondered:

“I’m also a little disappointed to see no mention of the % of actual injuries from high PAIN scores vs low to validate the data. Plenty of the pitchers with even negative scores have still been injured this season and naturally anything can happen at any time, but is there a significant statistical difference between the upper tiers and lower?“

Besides some initial testing on that season’s pitchers, I haven’t extensively run a recent test on the data. While information has always passed the eye test, it is time to dig a little more.

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Symbolic of the Cardinals’ chances of winning the NL Central division this year, we see a significant change in their DL status. We will start with them:

Matt Holliday now has a fractured thumb. This involves his right hand, and depending on what they discover today/release in the news later, could be season-ending. Don’t dump him yet until you get verification on this, but even if it takes 3 weeks to allow the bone to heal, he will still have to get grip strength and then batting timing back. Consider him to be a playoff hold.

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A few years back I created a metric to help find pitchers who are showing signs of a possible injury. I named the metric PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex). While I can easily publish the information at all times, I have not been able to dive into the results  as often as I would like. With the new arrangement with BJ Maack and me with the MASH Report, he will be looking at more of the daily and rehab updates and I can then dive into some deeper topics. Today, I will give an update on possible pitcher injuries.

There are just two inputs into the PAIN metric, fastball velocity, and Zone%. I have found drops in both to be indicators of possible pitcher injuries, so I decided to include the pair in the metric. Initially, I had to do a little back fitting to get the system to work. I have made a few minor tweaks over the years, but it has remained relatively constant.

One of the more recent tweaks I have made is to lower the bar for the players at risk. Initially, I made 100 the threshold for risk, but looking back, values of 90 are injured quite often. At some point in the future, I may adjust the formula so 100 is the threshold again.

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Happy Monday to you all!

Before we get to the injury updates, just a quick moment of introduction. I am an AT (athletic trainer — the sports medicine professionals you see tending to injuries at games/practices) and have been doing this in various roles since 1991 (yes, I’m old). Job stints include the St. Louis Cardinals organization, covering high school sports, working in orthopedic physician offices, rehabilitation, speed/strength/performance training, business owner & currently working for a medical device & bracing company.

It’s my intent to offer up not only the latest news about the players, but also to lend my insight & experience to what the injury actually is & what you might expect. To be asked to replace the great work of Jeff Zimmerman is a daunting task, and I wish to offer up appreciation and recognition to him for his work here. Best to you sir in your future endeavors. Now, let’s get to it.

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• Today marks the end of the MASH in its current format.  New writer, B.J. Maack will be taking over all the current injury news. I will not be going away though.

Starting Monday, I will be publishing one in-depth injury article on Thursday on subjects like my PAIN and HURT reports. Also, I will be writing three additional articles for RotoGraphs each week name “Mixing Fantasy and Reality” in which each article will be a short dive into three or four topics like a promoted prospect or a Quick Look at a pitcher. I am not 100% sure what the final format will eventually be, but my goal is to provide in-depth content not available anywhere else. It was not easy taking a step back from the MASH Report, but I am relieved to be moving on to covering a wider range of subjects. I am glad for the nice (kept me going) and harsh (kept me improving) comments over the years. Thanks. -Jeff

• Trevor Story will miss the rest of the regular season with a torn ligament in his thumb.

Story was hoping to be playing now, with his team surging in the National League Wild Card standings, but the injury he suffered Sunday in New York nixed that. Recovery from Thursday’s operation, which will be performed by hand and upper-extremity orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jennifer Kummer, is ex-pected to cost him the rest of the regular season.

But with an eight-week recovery time, Story could return if the Rockies make the playoffs.

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• Wade Davis is back on the DL and this time, it is a strained flexor muscle.

The Royals appeared to receive some good news regarding closer Wade Davis: An MRI perfohttp://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article/192680486/royals-closer-wade-davis-put-on-rmed in Kansas City on Sunday revealed Davis has a low-grade (Grade 1) strain of his right flexor muscle.

“The MRI showed his elbow was clean,” manager Ned Yost said before Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Rangers in the series finale at Globe Life Park.

While I don’t like to see pitchers get hurt, I do love how this story broke.

This is how you break a story. Good job Casey pic.twitter.com/YPkzZCcH5C

— Jimm (@jimcclintock) July 31, 2016

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• Brett Lawrie has a minor hamstring strain. The White Sox will be playing some interleague games, so to have a bigger bench, he was placed on the DL.

Lawrie hasn’t played since leaving a game on Thursday against the Tigers. Infielder Carlos Sanchez, who was removed from Triple-A Charlotte’s game Tuesday night, was called up to replace Lawrie.

“It just seemed like he was going backwards today,” manager Robin Ventura said of Lawrie on Tuesday. “There’s no way you can go over there [to Wrigley] and play the National League rules with nobody on the bench.”

• Trevor Rosenthal will be out with an inflamed shoulder.

Following an appearance in the Cardinals’ 9-6 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, Rosenthal asked to have his shoulder looked at, and the right-hander was checked out on Monday.

“It was news to us at the time,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said. “We let him get it looked at, and he’s going to continue to get some more tests [done].”

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