Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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Quote of the day

“People tell me that, and I’m like, ‘Shut up.’ ” –Trea Turner when asked why he hits so many home runs and doesn’t bunt more.

Quick (Long) Look at Matt Andriese

Andriese intrigues me as a potential sleeper. Historically, he has never been a highly rated prospect when he was a third-round pick out of Clemson. Baseball America ranked him at the Padres 20th rated prospect (50 overall grade) in 2013 and in 2014 he was 15th in their system (50 grade again). Then the Rays traded for him where he fell off the prospect map. From his old Baseball America profiles, he was working on several pitches but nothing stood out. When Kiley McDaniel graded him in 2015, he graded him with future 45’s to 55’s but put his overall grade at 40. No one extolled his virtues when he was finally called up to the majors.

I first noticed him when his 3.30 pERA (ERA based on each pitch’s results) was quite a bit lower than his 4.37 ERA. The per pitch grade had him with a plus change (60 grade), average fastball and curve (50 grade), and below average cutter/slider (45 grade). Additionally, he showed plus-plus control with his 1.8 BB/9 which when combined with his pitch grades put him as a 55-grade (above average) pitcher. Examining his 2015 season, his pitches were graded the same except he was throwing a below average two-seamer and didn’t have as much control.

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Time to talk a little Kyle Schwarber

I touched on it yesterday, but Schwarber’s fantasy value is going to fluctuate a ton depending on each league’s settings. In all my keeper leagues, he is getting the Utility tag because he didn’t make the minimum five games played last year (just two games in the outfield). I can’t emphasize enough, know your league settings. Most leagues require five starts until a player is eligible at a position, so I see him getting outfield eligibility the first or second week depending on the schedule and weather.

For him to get the five games at catcher to gain eligibility, let me say I am skeptical of him catching just one game, let alone five. Just to make sure I wasn’t off kilter, at least on this subject, I ask my Twitter followers when they thought he would reach the five games.
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1. Under almost no circumstance, fly through O’Hare. It is not worth it.

2. On Wednesday, in his first spring training game, Jonathan Sanchez’s fastball was off by 2-3 MPH. He may get the speed back. He may not. If a person has a draft before his next start, there is a no need to pick up a below average pitcher with velocity issues. Just go for the below average pitcher with no velocity issues.

More fastball speed updates

3. Ubaldo Jimenez fastball (94 to 96 MPH) is closer to his 2009 and 2010 levels (96 MPH) than 2011 levels (93.5 MPH) .

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This was supposed to be a look at the ADP values in the tiers I created during my Check the Position series, but two pairs of players in the second center field tier caught my eye. These players lie right on fantasy fault lines: they are within a couple picks of each other, yet it seems that their value is disparate. I think you’ll be able to tell who I fancy (as the Brits say).

First up are two borderline second-rounders (though a bit less borderline if your league breaks out the outfield into three positions). Jacoby Ellsbury (20.36 ADP) goes earliest, and many fantasy managers may scoff at the number if they are accustomed to playing with plain “OF” positions, and they could be right. He is projected to retain his game-changing speed and put up a steals number north of 50. To put that in perspective, only three players crossed that threshold last year, and only one other player is projected to do so in most projection systems next year (Michael Bourn). There’s a good chance that Ellsbury finally nets triple-digit runs too, provided he remains atop the order and the Boston offense doesn’t take a step back with their renewed emphasis on defense. So Ellsbury will have some good qualities.

But what about Grady Sizemore (26.52 ADP), who is being picked almost a half-round later? If you were in the right draft spot, you could actually avoid Ellsbury and take Sizemore after the turn in the third round. I did it recently, and felt great about it. It’s not like Sizemore won’t steal any bases – although the amount is in question. He put up a career-low 6.0 speed score last year (5.0 is average) and the projections range from 20 steals to the Fans’ more optimistic 29 steals. He’s still young (27), and here’s a bet that he’ll touch the higher end of the steals projections. The power is no question – he should out-homer Ellsbury by at least a dozen home runs, and as many as 20. For whatever reason, his batting average won’t be as nice, either.

So how do you compare two different players like this? How much are Ellsbury’s extra singles and stolen bases worth? How much should you pay for Sizemore’s extra power? An excellent site, BaseballMonster.com, attempts to answer this question by measuring a player’s impact in each of the 5×5 categories in terms of standard deviations above the mean in said category. Using Sizemore’s projections for 2009 (2010 is not up yet, and the .276, 32 HR, 38 SBs only need to be scaled back a little in the speed category to make sense), his across-the-board positive contributions gave him a ranking as the ninth-best hitter. How did Ellsbury finish last year? 14th. (I report, you decide.)

Next up is Curtis Granderson (53.64 ADP), who already seems like an ADP value at his draft position. In fact, in that mock where I scored Sizemore in the third, I took Granderson after the turn in the fifth and called it a double-victory. Granderson is going from a park that had a .974 park factor for home runs last year to one that sported a 1.261 factor this year. He’s going to have a nice bounce-back season according to his BABIP (.276 last year, .323 career). Yes, his speed factor was lower than his career average, but the speed factor counts stolen bases, and it’s hard to steal bases when you aren’t on base (and it’s hard to get on base when you’re getting unlucky with the bouncing ball). All systems go for Granderson, despite his unfavorable splits against lefties, which may not be as bad as they first appear.

And yet, Josh Hamilton (52.85 ADP), who has further to bounce back, is getting picked before Granderson. This is really a head-scratcher, in the end. Perhaps fantasy managers are being swayed by that gaudy 130 RBI total a couple of years back, because his career-high in home runs (32) is only two more than Granderson’s, and he doesn’t really steal bases (at all). Again, we are left to ponder the value of Hamilton’s batting average, because the RBI are so team-specific, and Granderson may out-produce Hamilton in that category depending on his position in the batting lineup in the Bronx. I think the home run totals will be close, and Granderson will get the final laugh.

Let’s take a trip around the web and see what some other sites are saying two-and-a-half weeks into the offseason…

Paul Singman of The Hardball Times believes 36-year-old first baseman Todd Helton is worth trusting in drafts for the 2010 season. As Singman points out, he has remained a consistent hitter well into his 30s and still delivers the kind of power rates that will lead to useful home run and RBI totals. Helton also holds a .328 career batting average and has shown no discernible signs of slowing down. As long as he can avoid the back problems that hampered him in 2008, the former Tennessee quarterback is primed for another stellar season.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball gives us an early preview of the 2010 Red Sox, and lists some Boston players that might hold strong fantasy implications. Clay Buchholz could be a hidden gem on a strong staff if he can make a few slight improvements. His K/9 was just 6.65 in 2009, a career-low on any level. It was 8.53 in the majors in 2008 and 12.80 at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2007. Buchholz has the potential to develop into a strikeout machine and he may reach full development sooner than later. The post also has a look at Jeremy Hermida’s disappointing strikeout rates as a Marlin and how he might improve now that he’s with the Red Sox.

Fantasy Baseball Junkie thinks speedy outfielders will continue to go undervalued in drafts next season. Players like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and especially Bobby Abreu, can often be had at a discount despite quality numbers all over the fantasy map. As FBJ notes, “There are only two players that have been top 50 fantasy hitters for the past eleven seasons. One of them is Alex Rodriguez; the other is Bobby Abreu.” He was ranked only the 20th best fantasy outfielder for 2010 by CBS and the 54th best hitter by ESPN. Of course, things could change by the time leagues begin drafting.

The fellas over at Razzball give a 2010 fantasy outlook for the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Allen. He should get an opportunity during Spring Training to win Arizona’s starting first base job and has shown enough power in the minor leagues to warrant selection late in drafts next season. That said, he needs to work on his strikeout rate, which stood at an ugly 38.5% in 116 plate appearances last season. The D’Backs already have enough whiffers.

One of the writers over at SB Nation’s Fake Teams had the sixth overall pick in a recent mock draft and selected the Brewers’ Ryan Braun. Here’s his justification: “I chose Braun as I feel there is some position scarcity in the outfield in 2010, and Braun provides you 5 categories in 5×5 leagues, and has increased his RBI totals in each of the last 2 seasons, and hit the 20 marks in SBs in 2009.”

Have a link, question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

We’re only about a week into the offseason and spots all over the web are already preparing for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. We’ll have excellent content all winter long here on RotoGraphs, but let’s check out what some other folks are up to as well…

Fantasy Alpha has a 2010 mock draft with some pretty interesting picks, including Troy Tulowitzki in the second round and Ben Zobrist in the fourth. RotoGraphs’ own Eno Sarris broke down Tulo’s fantastic 2009 campaign a few weeks ago. With a .344/.421/.622 second-half batting line, the shortstop might be poised for another fine season, but taking him in the top 20 does seem risky.

Paul Singman of The Hardball Times takes an even deeper look into Tulowitzki’s 2009 season. “The last time he was coming off a good season he did disappoint in the next one,” writes Singman. “However, no logical reasoning points to why that would happen again.”

The fellas over at Razzball aren’t expecting big things from Stephen Strasburg in his rookie season: “Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up. Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.” Strasburg may go a bit over-valued in drafts this spring because of the hype.

Razball also has a look at Alcides Escobar’s draft value now that J.J. Hardy is out of the picture in Milwaukee. Escobar swiped 42 bases in 109 games at the Triple-A level in 2009. He probably won’t hit for a great average in his first full season, but it sounds like the Brewers are committed to giving him a great deal of playing time. He’s a sleeper in the stolen bases category, without a doubt.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365 is concerned about the drop in Brian Fuentes‘ rate stats from 2008 to 2009. “In 2008 Fuentes posted a career best 3.78 K/BB rate including 11.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched,” writes Saponara. “His K/BB rate dropped to 1.92 this past season with a decline in K/9 to 7.5.” But does that mean he should be overlooked in drafts for the 2010 season? Definitely not. “As long as he’s the Angels closer,” Saponara concludes, “his save total will be inflated.”

Have a link you think others should see? Send me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

We’re hitting the final stretch of the 2009 season and most fantasy baseball leagues are entering, or have entered, playoff mode. There are 10 games on tap for this evening. Let’s dive into some links before the action begins…

Fantasy Baseball Junkie has a look at the most balanced statistical producers in this year’s fantasy baseball class — hitters and pitchers who covered a range of categories and still posted high all-around numbers. Torii Hunter, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence, and Albert Pujols top the list of batters, while Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Johan Santana covered a wide range of statistics as fantasy pitchers.

Jeremy Kempter of SB Nation’s FakeTeams profiles the Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson for keeper league purposes. The 22-year-old right-hander posted a 9-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .178 BAA, and collected 132 strikeouts in 114 innings this season at Triple-A Durham. “And this isn’t a one-year fluke,” writes Kempter. “In five minor league seasons, he’s got a 37-13 mark, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 507 K’s and 100 BB’s in 461 innings.”

Derek Ambrosino of The Hardball Times reviews Yahoo’s 2009 preseason Top 100. His conclusion? “The pre-ranks are not particularly accurate. Overall, only 51 of its projected top 100 actually finished in the top 100. ” It’s often better to go with your gut, trust your research, and work the waiver wire with ferocity than it is to trust the rankings of these huge fantasy services.

Baseball Prospectus’ Geoff Young analyzes Raul Ibanez’s career first- and second-half offensive splits, and then compares them to this season. “He played over his head for 50 games and then regressed to the [old] Ibanez,” Young concludes. “It happens. Just because he was one of the best hitters in baseball for a third of the season doesn’t mean he’s one of the best hitters in baseball, period.”

The fellas over at Razball have a few Monday observations, including praise for Padres starter Kevin Correia, who threw seven shutout innings on Sunday afternoon. The 29-year-old right-hander isn’t big on strikeouts, but has a 4.08 ERA and a win-loss record above .500 on a bad San Diego team.

Have a link, question or comment you’re dying to get off your chest? Send it over to me in an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Eight teams are participating in daytime baseball this afternoon and the rest of the clubs will get underway later tonight. With a whole lot of action in store for 9/9/09, let’s hit some links…

Eric Mack of CBS Sports provides a handful of starters who are destined for success down the stretch. “If you still are playing Fantasy Baseball,” Mack writes, “you are either fighting out the last few weeks for wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and saves or you are desperately trying to line up a winning staff in your Head-to-Head playoffs.” Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Barry Zito headline his list.

Florida’s Chris Coghlan tops Knox Bardeen’s latest edition of “Fantasy Fill-Ins” over at AOL Fanhouse. The rookie outfielder is batting .424/.457/.485 in the month of September and .307/.380/.444 overall. Bardeen also likes Luis Castillo, Placido Polanco and Adam LaRoche for the regular season’s final few weeks.

Derek Ambrosino of The Hardball Times discusses some of the more disappointing top 2009 fantasy picks, and looks ahead to their value for 2010. Corey Hart, Cole Hamels and Alexei Ramirez top the list. Can we expect them to rebound next season, and are these guys worth hanging onto in keeper leagues?

Mike Silver, also writing for The Hardball Times, calls the Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez “the pitching equivalent of the three-true-outcomes hitter” because he “matches eyepopping strikeout rates with equally huge walk rates.” What does that mean for his long-term fantasy value? Well, if he can tone down the walks while maintaining an effective wildness, things are looking up. As Silver notes, “the hurler has amassed a career 75.3 percent contact rate over 388.1 innings through parts of four seasons.” That’s one of the best ongoing rates in all of baseball.

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority hosts this week’s “fantasy roundtable,” asking four other fantasy baseball experts this question: “Have you ever quit on a fantasy team of yours? If so, what were the circumstances? If not, how were you able to maintain your motivation even after you had no chance?”

Have a link, comment or question you’d like to send my way? I’m always looking for new content and fantasy strategies. Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Three day games have already gotten underway and there are seven more contests on deck. Let’s get to some fantasy links as the season marches on…

Dustin Hockensmith of Imaginary Diamond lists 10 young players who could prove to be fantasy sleepers in 2010. As Hockensmith notes, “Some of these guys — Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz and Rick Porcello — are making an impact right now.”

The boys over at Fake Teams work through a discussion-inducing question: “Who would you rather have, Justin Upton or Matt Kemp?” Both have shot up in fantasy value this season and will be taken among the top tier of outfielders in drafts next season.

Not ready to begin thinking about 2010? Fantasy Baseball Junkie has you covered with a look at “vulture win opportunities” for the month of September. The blog post suggests adding guys like Jamie Moyer and Alfredo Aceves, who leach off starters like Pedro Martinez and Joba Chamberlain, respectively, for wins. The strategy may come off as odd, but it does make some sense.

With Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera and Huston Street hitting the bench recently with injuries, there are an awful lot of saves up for grabs. Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse runs us around some of those situations.

Troy Patterson of Roto Savants previews Buster Posey’s September fantasy value. For those who didn’t catch the news, the elite prospect was called up to the majors on Wednesday to aid the Giants in their push toward the playoffs. Bengie Molina is hurting and reportedly disgruntled, so there may be some playing time available.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup spins us around the league with a group of recommended waiver adds. Brian Joura handles that duty wonderfully for RotoGraphs, but it’s always nice to have multiple perspectives.

Have a link, comment, question or fantasy blog you think I should be reading? Send me an e-mail and tell me about it. Or find me on Twitter.