This week we move onto tier four of the American League starting pitcher keeper rankings. This appears to be the last of the tiers comprised of pitchers who could still truly remain targets in mixed leagues. We also welcome our first rookie into the mix, which is always exciting. As a refresher, here is how the first three tiers went…

Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields

Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow

Without further ado…

Tier 4:

Matt Moore

Many years ago, rookie pitchers were banned from my fantasy teams. Given the existence of TINSTAAPP and the unreliability of the young and inexperienced, it was relatively easy to avoid these pitchers in mixed leagues. However, I have seen the light and I now evaluate rookies on an individual basis and no different than any other pitcher. Moore is currently the top pitching prospect in baseball and looks to have a rotation spot with the Rays heading into 2012. Amazingly, the 23-year old lefty has never posted a K/9 below 11.5 at any minor league stop, or during his super short stint with Tampa Bay this season. His control has also been good, and it looks like he will be around league average in inducing ground balls.

He is not going to average nearly 96.0 miles per hour with his fastball as a starter all year, but I would guess he settles in between 93 and 94, which is still fantastic, and even more so for a lefty. Yes, it was only over 9.1 innings, but man that 14.2% SwStk% is ridiculous. That might have a little to do with the quality of his stuff in this early PITCHf/x look that finds that his fastball has a lot more movement than average, while his curve ball could be a lethal strikeout pitch. Obviously, don’t go crazy with your expectations, but any pitcher with this type of strikeout potential and history of punch out rates deserves all the hype he gets.

Ricky Romero

I am a fan of Romero and took an in-depth look at him last month. Pitchers who combine a good strikeout rate, decent enough control and induce tons of ground balls are the type I want on my fantasy team. Though I do think he has a bit of strikeout rate upside, a low-7.0 rate is essentially what pushed him into this fourth tier, rather than the third. His ERA is going to jump back into the mid-3.00’s next season as his luck runs out, but he should generate good fantasy value once again.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Jimenez was one of the toughest pitchers for me to rank. Of course, that is no surprise after I called him the head-scratcher of the year. I am not all too concerned about his inflated ERA. Most of that was just poor fortune. What does scare me is the huge drop in velocity. Falling from 96.1 miles per hour to 93.5 is a dramatic decline and not to be taken lightly. It killed his SwStk%, which fell below 8.9 for the first time ever and actually came well below the league average. In addition, the Indians infield defense is not supposed to be very good, though Jimenez’s GB% was at its lowest mark since 2007. There are lots of question marks here, but we know what he is capable of and so I could not possibly justify ranking him any lower. And since his missing velocity is a mystery, he certainly wasn’t going to be ranked any higher.

Gio Gonzalez

For the second year in a row, Gonzalez outperformed his SIERA and xFIP rather significantly. The ballpark probably has a bit to do with it, but I am still betting his true talent level is closer to these metrics than his actual ERA the past two seasons. His poor control means he will never help your WHIP and playing in front of a mediocre offense is going to limit his wins, even if he has won 31 games the last two seasons. That suggests a downside of just a two-category contributor, which is why he is not ranked higher. Of course, he is still plenty valuable with that strong strikeout rate and above average ground ball percentage.

Derek Holland

Holland likely saw his perceived value increase with his overall postseason performance, when he posted a 3.38 ERA. His skills this year were solid all around, yet unspectacular. However, the most exciting observation is that of his fastball velocity. It jumped 2.1 miles per hour, which is huge. Surprisingly though, the increased velocity did not lead to a spike in his SwStk% or K%. Fastball velocity has a pretty strong correlation to strikeout rate, for obvious reasons, so if he could sustain the jump, I would expect his strikeout rate to rise, potentially returning to the 8.0 range. His control may regress a bit next season given his mediocre F-Strike%, but a better strikeout rate will offset that, and his slight ground ball tilt could lead to an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range.

Let’s finish up the fourth tier since we managed to get past the two most polarizing players (Shane Victorino and Matt Holliday) without starting a land war in Asia. These are the last National League outfielders that you can keep and feel comfortable about it — and they have their own discomforting details. You might describe both parts of this fourth tier as the group you’d like to trade if you can get strong (younger) value back in your keeper leagues.

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I know a lot of you have been asking about Hanley Ramirez’s whereabouts in these tiers. I’ve purposely excluded him simply because I honestly don’t know where to include him. I’ll have a whole discussion on his rank come Friday. You can hurl your insults at me then. For now, on to Tier Four.

Alexei Ramirez $9

There may not be a more consistently mediocre hitter than Ramirez. Over the last three seasons his wOBA’s are .319, .322 and .319. He’s hit 15, 18 and 15 home runs. He’s driven in 68, 70 and 70 runs. His stolen base total was cut in half this past season, but from 2008-2010 it was 13, 14 and 13. It’s safe to say he likes duplicates. His plate discipline and batted ball numbers have been steady as well. He’s not a star and really doesn’t have the potential to be one. What is he? He’s an average shortstop who benefits from playing in a hitter friendly park. There will be no surprises one way or another in keeping Ramirez.

Yunel Escobar $5

Speaking of average shortstops, Escobar fits that bill nicely. Where Alexei Ramirez is lacking in average and on-base-percentage, those are areas Escobar does well. I’m overlooking his 2010 season for a number of reasons. Excluding that year he’s never hit below .288 nor had an on-base-percentage under .366. His career 54.9 percent ground ball rate takes away any power potential he may possess. He was greatly helped by the Rogers Centre in 2011, hitting .321/.416/.480 there; a .226 point difference in OPS from his road games. Escobar was a pleasant surprise in 2011, flying under the radar and going later than he probably should have in most drafts due to his rocky 2010. He’s the last of the shortstops you should consider keeping.

Alcides Escobar $4

The only asset Escobar possesses on the offensive side of things is his speed. He stole 26 bases last season and has stolen as many as 42 at the Triple-A level. He had some hot streaks last season, posting a .357 wOBA in June and a .372 in September. In the other four months he failed to muster anything higher than a .278. If you’ve drafted properly Escobar shouldn’t be starting over any other shortstop you have in a standard league. Unless you’re desperate for steals, he’s more of a bench player and profiles to a fringe starter in deeper leagues.

Ian Desmond $4

Being a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar isn’t a compliment. They each cannot hit for average or take a walk, but Desmond hits for more power, granted he’s not exactly Tulowitzki-like in that category. Unlike Escobar he failed to have any exceedingly good months, peaking with a wOBA of .348, otherwise riding along in the sea of obscurity. He has a minor league track record of hitting success, but in his two full MLB seasons that has yet to translate. There’s double digit home run potential and he’ll steal you ~20 bases, but he’s below par in runs, runs batted in, average and on-base-percentage.

Using Zach Sanders’ super-fantastic-shiny-new Fantasy Value Above Replacement auction value tool, we’ve covered just about every last third baseman worth his salt. This will be the last installment of the third base keepers as we’re pretty well out of keepers to discuss.

To recap, Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria made up the very thin first tier.

The second tier looked like this:

Brett Lawrie
Pablo Sandoval
Ryan Zimmerman
Adrian Beltre
David Wright
Aramis Ramirez
Kevin Youkilis

Third Tier:

Alex Rodriguez
Mark Reynolds
Michael Young
Chipper Jones
Edwin Encarnacion
Ryan Roberts
David Freese
Mike Moustakas
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Allow me to state up front that this was easily the most difficult tier to get a handle on. Within this volatile batch lies a smorgasbord of youngsters on the rise and vets on the decline, as well as versatile across-the-board accruers and single category studs.

Before we unveil this tier, I must first extend my appreciation to Dayton Moore for swooping in to my rescue — just in time, no less — so I wouldn’t have to rank my arch nemesis, Melky Cabrera, who for the record would have slotted in at the end of this crop. I think.

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The guys in this fourth tier are the last ones that are both a) going to be younger than 35 next season and b) established talents in the league. The rest of the crew — we’ll have a “best of the rest” tier — will be old or unproven. Sure, lots of these tier four guys are coming off of bad seasons, but they all have track records that suggest that 2012 will be better. And they all look like players that could be useful in 2013, too. Probably.

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Now we have to move out of the realm of pitchers who contribute in nearly every category. Now we have to start looking at arms with notable drawbacks, whether it’s a strikeout rate in the 5-6 range, a WHIP and ERA built on unsustainable peripherals, or a lack of a track record. There aren’t many arms left that offer sure success. Jaime Garcia might have more in common with the tier above than with the rest of this crowd, but the difference is minimal.

Recapping the day’s top story:

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Most fantasy leagues are either already in or are headed to hibernation, but ottoneu, as those of you who played this year have already learned, is a little different. With arbitration voting behind us, we are onto the ottoneu hot stove season, and there are a few things you should know as you prepare for a 4 month period that will be surprisingly important to determining your 2012 league champion.

Some of what happens in the off-season is going to be similar to your other leagues – reviewing projections, putting together rankings, valuing players, preparing for the auction – but some of it will be quite different, and that is what I want to focus on here.
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If the Cardinals have any hope for Adam Wainwright to return next year to the form that made him a top-of-the-line pitcher, they need only to look at another pitcher already in their rotation. Jaime Garcia missed most of the 2009 season after undergoing the procedure following the 2008 season. In his first full season back, Garcia not only pitched quite well, he did so in the majors, having broken camp with the Cards in something of a surprise move.

In a weaker field, he might have been able to earn Rookie of the Year honors, but 2010’s class was stocked — Buster Posey was the winner over Jason Heyward, Garcia, Gaby Sanchez, and Starlin Castro — so stealing the prize was somewhat out of the realm of possibility.

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We are getting into pitchers that may or may not be National League eligible next year, particularly Hiroki Kuroda and Javier Vazquez. Until we know for sure what’s happening with retirees, I’m going to leave them out, though it’s worth mentioning that I don’t think I’d keep anyone who has talked about retiring or generally leaving MLB, unless someone has declared their intent to retire and I missed it. Unlikely.

A lot of these pitchers are guys I’d like to have on my staff, but it’s a value question. Anibal Sanchez could be a really nice strikeout option, but there’s no way I want him at or near the cost of Zack Greinke. If you can keep Vance Worley at one round earlier than you drafted him last year — likely the last round, since he wasn’t often drafted — I’d do it. If you have to use a 5-6th round pick to keep him, I’m much less interested. Read the rest of this entry »