All Questions Answered Thread
In lieu of a chat today, we’ll answer some questions over the course of the afternoon. This will allow us to answer more detailed questions, so make sure you give us the relevant information in your comment so we can help you. The RotoGraphs staff is here to help!
Oh, and ottoneu arbitration voting ends at midnight ET on 10/31 so remember that and ask us about those votes if you want.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Mark Trumbo or Gaby Sanchez better 5×5 value? Is Kendrys a big risk to Trumbos pt?
I’d say Trumbo. Younger, more raw talent, and I don’t think they’ll let him sit on the bench.
What is your projection and upside for LoMo?
Assuming he plays close to everyday next year: .260/.350 with 22 homers.
Upside, if everything goes well: .280/.370 with 27 homers.
Then again, we have to wait and see how the new Marlins ballpark will play.
Jason Kipnis and/or Mike Moustakas worth it in a 10 team, 15 keepers league? MI and UTIL spots. Corey Hart? Wandy Rodriguez? Julio Teheran? All would be backups.
In that deep of a league, I would not let Kipnis and Moose go yet.
I like Teheran’s potential, but PT is a problem.
Rodriguez could see his value jump if he goes to a good team, hopefully in the NL.
I’d hang on to Kipnis and Moustakas, yeah. Wandy Rodriguez, too.
ten teams not deep though… if you have to choose, I like Kipnis and Wandy for best value next year.
Give me a couple deeeeep catcher sleepers for 2 c leagues that have a bit of upside and wont kill you.
Sal Perez – Royals for one. He is starting to get a little too much interest right now, but could still be cheap.
I still have some faith in Josh Thole, too. If the Mets are willing to give him another chance next year, he’ll be a worthwhile gamble.
May not be a sleeper, but Devin Mesoraco will probably get a lot of PT for the Reds next year and has a lot of upside.
what about whoever starts for the royals? mckenry seemed do to ok late in the season and jaramillo has carried a decent average most seasons.
oops, meant pirates.
Please rank the following closers for 2012 only: Bailey, Perez, Melancon, and Santos.
Santos, Perez, Bailey, Melancon.
Bailey over Perez if he can stay healthy for 60 innings.
Can keep 8 of the following in 13-Team Mixed:
J Ellsbury 34
J Verlander 26
A Beltre 24
J Weaver 22
C Granderson 18
T Hanson 18
M Bourn 17
A McCutchen 17
J Bautista 15
D Ortiz 15
J Hardy 14
A Bailey 12
A Lind 12
M Cuddyer 11
J Putz 11
As Cabrera 7
B League 7
K Farnsworth 6
Ellsbury, Verlander, Beltre, Weaver, Grandy, McCutchen, Bautista and Asdrubal.
Cabrera
Bautista
McCrutchen
Granderson
Beltre
Verlander
Ellsbury
Hardy or Bailey
I would look to move Verlander (his value will not be higher, it may stay the same, but it will probably be worse) and Weaver (regression in his future in several categories).
For seemingly the 79th consecutive year, I’m keeping Beckham with delusions of his becoming the next Utley. Where can I get help? How much does theragpy cost? Is this in the DSM-V? Thank you. All outs and no homers make JT something something.
Borderline anti-winning behavior from the DSM V. Tuttle, if this is Tuttle, you fall in love with your young-uns too much. I don’t believe in Beckham any more. The word coming in was that he’d be close to his ceiling when he came into the league (college player)…
It is Tuttle.
Next, you’ll tell me I’m nuts to still lurve Heyward .
Nah hold on to him. I think next year will be much much better.
I had the same irrational thinking with Travis Snider. Finally decided to cut bait this year. Still thinking maybe I should re-claim him before somebody cashes in on him breaking out.
It kinda like having a girlfriend with a lot of potential. You know the second you drop her she is gonna get in fantastic shape and dress to kill. You feel like you deserve to cash in for the work you put in, right????
Which pitchers in the minors would you classify as having #1/#2 upside? ( I am asking to see if Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals specifically belongs)
Moore and Miller (and Darvish if you count him). Teheran. Such a crapshoot I wouldn’t include many more. Maybe Jarrod Parker. Maybe Banuelos but the line is getting closer now.
There are six pitchers you consider as having the upside of at least a #2? Not most likely projection, but upside?
Do you think Bryan Lahair has a chance to stick with the Cubs or given a legitimate shot by another major league club? Do you think he is “for real?”
Keep Ryan Dempster or Julio Teheran? 16 team H2H points league which overvalues pitcher K’s.
Where did you finish last year? How close are you to competitiveness? How young is your team?
Won the league last year. My other keepers are Joey Votto, Jose Reyes, Carlos Gonzalez, Roy Halladay, Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Hudson and Matt Moore. Would like to keep another hitter tbh, but there is nobody else worth holding onto on my offense.
And James Shields.
keep Shields then. or if he’s already kept… Teheran. Dempster is replaceable, but I agree with you. Maybe trade Shields for a hitter.
12 team mixed. Any reason to keep B. Lawrie or Asdrubal Cabrera over Lester or Weaver? Danke.
Only based on need, I would say. If you are only keeping 2, stick with the pitchers. If you are keeping 4-5, and the others are SP, you may want to mix it up. But I’d be keeping Lester/Weaver.
E-5 your thoughts for 2012?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-edwin-encarnacion-revival-project/
Check that out from back in August. I like him, but his 2011 was so totally different from his career that it worries me a little. His days at third are over, and as a 1b/DH there are probably safer choices, but in a deeper or AL only league, he could have plenty of value.
What do you think of Mariners greenhorns James Paxton and Casper Wells? And, do you think a trade of Wil Myers for Paxton is a balanced trade?
Love Paxton and I think Wells is alright – may platoon in 2012, will likely always struggle to hit for a decent average. Paxton could see a call mid-season and contribute immediately. I think he’s closer than Myers, but it depends on your needs. Both guys could be solid ML contributors.
Does anyone think Saltalamacchia’s 2011 improvements will stick? How many AB’s should he expect with the Red Sox next year?
Lavarnaway is coming and Salty’s BA might drop. I’d be worried about drafting him next year unless it was really late.
For what positions will Yonder Alonso be eligible in 2012 and how much PT should we expect for him?
Really I am wondering if he will get any more starts at 3B (only 1 in 2011).
No 3B for him I don’t think. Positions you can find based on your own league but I bet only 1b and of.
Keeping Trout in my league. Does he get PT to start the season? If not, can I float by with crappy waiver guys a couple weeks, or should I spend a few bucks on a starting caliber guy to hold me over for a while?
The Angels certainly have an incentive to keep Trout in the minors — see Posey, Buster — but if they have designs on competing next year, they’ll need him before too long. At this stage, plan on being without him for at least a month.
If it were me, I’d plan to grab someone for a couple bucks in the draft. That said, outfield is a relatively easy spot to cover, so if you end up spending the money on someone else, you won’t be completely done for.
Anybody want to haphazard a guess at Chisenhall’s proj. stat line? W/ at-bats
Taken with a grain of salt, since I am an Indians fan and want to see the Chiz Kid succeed…
.270/.340/.440, 17 HR, 550 PA. Figure he isn’t guaranteed the opening day 3B job, but can’t see him NOT being the guy.
The danger is the downside – if he struggles, he may find himself back in AAA, as Jason Donald played decently down the stretch and the Indians like him as well.
Yeah, the downside relegates him to flier only material, but with the dearth of quality at 3B he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Pick three of four OF for next year (need two of those three active and contributing) and beyond in a deep keeper: Brown, Sands, Sizemore, Thames. Thanks.
Brown and Sizemore (for contributing)
I think Thames and Sands may have more potential, but PT may not come.
Sands next.
When looking for breakout years for players for 2012, what theories do you subscribe too? Age-27 or 28? Third year starting pitchers? Second-half all stars? I know there are flaws and have seen some studies debunking them but I like the third year starting pitchers – Justin Masterson was great for me this year!
Just my two cents, but I like to target players who had injury shortened seasons, but aren’t necessarily injury prone and also have a decent track record of success as the injury tends to drop their draft value significantly. Guys like 1B Ike Davis and OF Corey Hart might fit this mold. And those post-hype guys (like Alex Gordon this year) are always nice.
Injuries is one. One good method is to find players that had a bad season from injuries and eventually performed fine. Their projections will be based on all years without knowledge of the injury. Zobrist fall into this category
I look for actually changes in core talent. I have spotted that Kendrick hit the ball further in 2011. He should see the same HR numbers in 2011.
For pitchers, most will never increase their K%, but can improve their BB%. When given the chose between 2 pitchers, always take the higher K guy and hope he gets control of the Ks
I do like third year SPs and I definitely look at 26-27 year olds, but for breakout hitters, I like to look for upticks in power and BABIP in Aug/Sept from the previous year (you know, solid improvements in relation to the rest of the season) that come as a result of extra work with hitting coaches and changes in swing/stance. Bautista made changes and had a late power surge in 2009, Granderson in 2010. Wieters looks like an intriguing candidate for next year with an adjusted batting stance.
How do you guys feel about a couple of Mets like Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis and Lucas Duda? I feel like they are undervalued, and especially with the Mets moving the walls in on Citi Field, have a real good chance at breaking out next year.
The trick is identifying those changes and weeding out the insignificant ones.
You have to choose one for fantasy. Neither are counted against your active roster until you want them to be.
Profar or Pineda?
Pineda. Young pitcher, huge upside, has already shown what he can do in the bigs. Profar is a big-time prospect, but he also hasn’t seen anything above A-ball.
A bit vague, but how do you go about preparing for a fantasy draft… which stats do you look at from previous years (the actual stats for your fantasy league, like HR, R, SB or do you look at advanced metrics like ISO, BB%, BABIP to help you, or a combination of the two).
My preference is to use projections, rather than previous season’s stats. When I look at the previous year’s stats, I start with the stats my league is using, but keep an eye on things like BB% and K%, BABIP, and HR/FB. When I see odd looking numbers in any of those areas, I alter my expectations of the other stats accordingly.
I look at only rates, AVG, K%, BB%, HR%, SB% per PA. I get these by using a wisdom of the crowds approach. I take 3 projection systems and then average them to get a combined number. Still just concentrate on rates. Then I spend the rest of time looking for clues to PT and batting order position. As much as I had Jeff Fracoeur, he had a full time position batting 4th, and then created quite a few decent stats. I believe the biggest advantage to be gained is in playing time of “bad” players.
For pitchers, I only look at K% and BB% with the teams offensive (wins) and defensive (WHIP, ERA, Wins) capabilities as tie breakers. I will be going over the reason behind this philosophy next week.
In ottoneu league, if the need is there would you give up Dan Hudson(14) and Profar (3) for Rickie Weeks(22)?
Also would you rather have Dom Brown or Profar
Depends what the Phils do in the off-season. If they commit to Brown, I would rather have him. But if my choice is Profar in AA or Brown in AAA, I’ll take Profar,
Depends how easily you think you can get a MI in the auction. I am a big Hudson fan, and wouldn’t want to give him up along with a potential stud like Profar. The other thing to think about is that if you find yourself a MI short of contention next year, Profar can be part of a prospect package to buy a stud MI at that time.
Keep 7, 12 team, round drafted doesnt matter, which 2 are odd men out?
Napoli
Mauer
Kinsler
Reyes
R Zimmerman
J Upton
McCutchen
D Jennings
D Price
Mauer and and Price.
Someone may want Mauer. I may look to trade him in a upgrade like Mauer and Reyes for Tulo. Lopsided, but will improve your team.
I see a pitching need. Offer Mauer and Price for a Phillie pitcher.
Keep Beachy in a 15 team mixed league for $13? 10 pitcher spots.
What other pitchers are you looking to keep and at what prices?
Shields ($9), Axford ($10), Kimbrel ($16) and Kuroda ($1) are the ones I’m most certain about. I’m also debating Norris at $4 and Gio at $17. I’ll probably try to trade Gio though.
For what it’s worth I tend to go heavy on offense and closers. Finished 2nd this year and have strong keepers on offense.
Oh and I have Yu Darvish on my development squad.
I’d definitely keep Beachy at $13 over Gio at $17 or Norris at almost any price.
I love Beachy heading into 2012. He was extremely productive given his limited starts. Amount of IP will be the big question for next year.
What kind of stats do you expect from Beckett in ’12? Also do you see B. Phillips regressing next year… his OBP was somewhat out of line with his career OBP?
Beckett’s luck has been all over the place, but his skills have not. My guess would be a mid-3’s ERA, about 8 k/9 and around 170 IP. ZiPS projections for the Red Sox are out, and that shows him at 3.80 with 133 K in 154 IP, but I think that is a bit pessimistic. Beckett will start to fall sometime soon (he is 32) but I’ll peg him at 3.59, 175 IP, 154 K.
Phillips – um, yeah. His BB% didn’t go up, just his BABIP did. Still a valuable 2B, but I’d expect ’09/’10, not ’11 numbers.
Your prediction for Kenley Jansen next year? Would you rather have him at $4 or JJ Putz for $13? 5×5 15 team mixed league. Thanks!
if you have holds as a category, I’d take Jansen.
pick 5 ($260 budget, players can be kept for a total of 3 years at current salary):
beltre 1 year @ $3
kennedy 2 years @ $8
j zimmermann 2 years @ $7
napoli 2 years @ $7
jennings 2 years $3
lawrie 2 years @ $1
ackley 2 years @ $1
wainwright 2 years @ $1
holland 2 years @ $1
thanks!
Depends a little on how close you are to competing. In general, I’d say
Waino
Jennings
Napoli
Lawrie
Zimmermann
finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd the past 3 years. we keep 5 going forward with the 3 year limit. i guess everyone is close to competing every year.
my concern with napoli is that he’ll be good next year but who knows where he ends up after that. ackley’s a low-risk option at a scarce position. ditto for beltre
thanks!
Lawrie
Beltre
Jennings
Ackley
Wainwright
I could be talked into others but don’t like Kennedy, and Holland compared to the others.
I need some pitching, badly. Mike Minor and Jacob Turner and Edwin Jackson are the best I got (20-Team keeper league).
Position Player Keepers so far:
Alex Avila
Freddie Freeman
Neil Walker
Chase Headley (Maybe)
Alexei Ramirez
CarGo
Chris Young (OF)
Devin Mesoraco (Maybe)
Thinking I may have to trade CarGo, as he gets all the heat, obviously. What kind of pitchers can I get back for him?
Hamels, Shields level. Use this value spread sheet to get an idea:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqjYD7bBmghFdHVkbnpmd2dmcnpacF9lZ1dreHJzRlE&hl=en_US#gid=0
Which late rd of will have the best fantasy value: tabata, pagan, span, or revere
toughie. Probably Pagan. But depends on where he is playing next year, should the Mets move him.
Playtime will be key here. I always like span, but it is totally baseless.
Would this be a fair trade for a deep keeper league: Kung Fu Panda for Stanton?
Thanks,
Al
Depending on need, it should be allowed.
That being said,I would not trade Stanton right now.
Agreed
Keep 3. Standard 5×5 head-to-head, cost doesn’t matter, would like to keep at least 1 pitcher.
David Wright
Buster Posey
Adam Jones
Mike Moustakas
Dustin Ackley
Josh Beckett
Cole Hamels
James Shields
leaning Wright, Posey, Hamels myself.
That’s exactly what I’d do. Hard to let Shields and Ackley go, but you gotta kill your darlings sometimes…
Posey – for sure
Pick 2 of
Shields or Hamels or Wright
What can we expect out of Roy Oswalt next season?
very much depends on where he lands, but I actually am a bit of a believer in RoyO. But he’s probably more of a #4 starter on a decent fantasy team, so I wouldn’t pay a premium for the name. You can get a mid-3 ERA and 140 strikeouts in a lot of places.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/roy-oswalt-ages-adapts-achieves/
Is it crazy to turn down Teixeira and Stubbs for Mike Stanton?
I would keep Stanton, especially if you can keep him for a long time. I am not a fan of Stubbs right (ended up platooning last season).
All the Jered Weaver-regression talk has me considering what to do with him. If I trade him for needed outfield help that will leave me Gallardo & Romero as my keeper pitchers. Do you see him performing at around the same level as those two or will he, even with regression, be a notch above? Thanks!
He will probably be between the two. Worse than Gallardo (but close) and much better than Romero.
Allen Craig a keeper in a 20 team mixed league?
No, playtime is an issue. Keepers almost need to be guaranteed starters.
Several keeper questions. Any response at any level of detail much appreciated. If you only want to answer one, I’m most interested in your thoughts on Napoli. Thanks!
Background: 14 team mixed keeper league with 26 man rosters and $260 auction budget. Standard 5×5 except we use OBP/SLG instead of AVG/HR. My team is very deep in underpaid talent and set up to contend for years. Option to keep any player for up to 3 years at +5/+8/+9 off base year salary.
1. Mike Napoli: What’s the long-term prognosis? Is he worth a 3 year $11/$14/$15 contract? The $11 for the first year is a no brainer, but my gut says go year-to-year with him.
2. Which Zobrist are we getting this year? Keepable at $14?
3. Brandon Belt: Worth keeping at all? It would be one year at $6 – no way am I going to risk multiple years with him.
4. Paul Goldschmidt: Keep for one year at $6 or three years at $6/$9/$10? Or not at all?
I have no other 1B locked in but Pujols and Miggy will be available at auction. Most other star 1B are under contract. Better to keep one or both of the above guys or pay $40-$50 at auction for a sure thing?
1. Agree on Napoli – Catchers are fragile and his situation may change
2. The good one (I am betting on). I have gotten some more information that the back was hurt for all of 2010. Ignore it with projections. I expect something similar to 2011.
3. Playing time is key with him. a bunch of unknowns
4. Not a fan, but may be worth a shot.
If you must have PT at 1B, go with Gold. If you want to roll the dice on a possible better player, get Belt.
Any specific reason you’re not high on Goldy? Will he K too much to stick? Is this problem mitigated in an OBP league?
Too many K’s for the number of K’s and FB numbers. Here is a good article on the subject:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/predicting-the-power-tool-using-metrics/#more-61592
He is an very lite Adam Dunn. I see a Jack Cust type player.
Keep 4 forever. Need to cut 3:
Carlos Santana
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Justin Upton
Mauer
Victorino
Lawrie
Thanks!
Gonzo, Fielder, Upton, Lawrie — Santana next. That’s a lot of bats, even if they aren’t at the premium positions.
what kind of line will chris sale put up in the rotation next year?
I think he could strike out about one per inning, keep the ball on the ground and keep his ERA under 3.75… he’ll be good, not as good as he was the last two years, but really good.
What do you see as fair value for Youkilis? I’m set at 3B and want to move him. I think he’s getting old fast but he’s a 3Bman so he’s gotta be worth something, lol. I was thinking along the lines of targeting another injured or underperforming player, like Posey or Carl Crawford.
Sounds like a good idea. By Zach’s spreadsheet, Youk still managed $8 of value and probably has $15 upside. Craw was worth $4 and probably has $17+ upside (Bourn was $19). Posey has slightly lower upside but in a tougher position.
I have a different sort of question.
In the future can you PLEASE used mixed rankings for all the positional series?
– A vast majority of fantasy players play in mixed leagues.
– It is much easier for AL/NL only players to filter out guys form the other league, than it is for mixed players to look at 2 different write ups simultaneously and make any sense of it
– the argument that mixed ranks would require “too much work for one person” doesnt hold water, because its pretty simple to split up the articles in a way that is feasible. split up each tier into a separate article, or have a couple different authors working on the series. the fangraphs staff is full of very bright minds – there has to be a better way than the current split, which unfortunately is mostly useless for mixed leaguers.
these are just ideas and not personal criticisms of the author, and i dont mean to single anyone out. I realize its very likely not your call, but i think the readers would be much better served if some of these suggestions were taken seriously.
The problem is not the articles or the amount of players to think about, it’s the actual rankings that we release once a month and the fact that we are a blog. One writer cannot link all the starting pitchers in the league .. you saw how long the AL SP and NL OF rankings got… we have to link each and every one of those players in our articles. The amount of work then becomes at least twice as much as the work I’m asking other writers to do. It’s just not fair.
But! Since I’m now the manager, I’ll be collating the mixed-league SP and OF ranks myself. I’ll have them in the spring (like we did last year) and then I’ll update them as much as I can. The post might be a little different — it might just be a google document or something — but I hear this complaint loud and clear and I’m working on it.
Thanks Eno, appreciate the response. Valid reason, and the work required for linking every single player is something I had not thought of.
looking forward to your collated ranks!
Neftali Feliz – what can we expect next year? Rotation? If so, will he have an innings cap and will he actually be good?
I would wait to see what the Rangers say after the series.
Now for a more conventional question:
12 team league allows max of 8 keepers, each costing a draft pick in round they were drafted. Draft cost escalates each yr, and only 1 player allowed per round.
Start 10 hitters – 4 OF, 1 UT, no MI or CI
These are my definites:
Keeper (round)
M Cabrera (1)
Bautista (5)
J Upton (6)
Ellsbury (9)
Granderson (12)
Strasburg (20)
==============
need to pick 2 of the following, all will be 23rd/24th rounders:
Beachy
Pineda
Lawrie
Hosmer
My gut says Hosmer/Lawrie but would you be comfortable going into the draft with only one pitcher, and a risky one who will not pitch over 170 innings at that?
You have a first baseman and he’s pretty good. I would take Pineda and Lawrie.
I would disagree with Eno as well….Lawrie and Hosmer are the choices for me. Starting pitching is deep and these two are future stars.
I will disagree with Eno and would go with Hosmer instead of Pineda.
Also, depending on when you pick, I would drop Cab and look to pick him up in the draft. If you have the first pick, you will get him anyways. Also if the 1st rounders people would have to drop ahead of you are comparable players, you end up with a 1st rounder and get one of the 23/24th rounders
I have last pick in the 1st round and first pick in 2nd rd. (snake draft, and we go in reverse order of final 2011 regular season standings.)
Arod and Hanley were picked in the 1st round last year, and both will be cut this year, so if I drop MCab he will be surely be picked up before my turn. None of the players available in the draft are comparable to MCab and I dont think I’d feel comfortable expecting Hosmer to replace his production this year (or ever).
So is Lawrie the clear keeper and Beachy the clear guy to cut?
I like Beachy, but the others are better. You will not be able to replace his production in the 23/24 round pick, I was just trying to see if you could keep another player.
ce3-I would keep Miggy….he;s a first round pick and for me the #1 first baseman in 2012.
4×4 AL only – I have A-Rod signed for the next 2 years at $34. Next year is a rebuilding year for me. Do I try to cut my loses and trade for Dice-K signed for 1 year at $15 and eat the contract to rid myself of a $34 A-Rod in 2013?
If that is the best you can do. I think you could at least break even if someone is desperate. Also, maybe you could find a better contract/player to take on.
One more detail, I expect 2012 auction values to be inflated by 10% based on the players under contract.
you have to get someone better than Dice K for ARod even with Arod’s power in a down trend.
If Prince leaves Milwaukee, does Mat Gamel get the 1b job? Will he platoon? What kind of numbers do you think he can put up?
From all that I have read, it looks like Gamel on 1B if Fielder leaves.
20 HRs, 260 AVG, RBIs and Runs will be determined on batting ordering position. If he can work his way to the top of the order, the numbers will be great.
Who will be the Marlins closer in 2012?
No idea, I hate guessing closers.
Is Marcum in the 8th round of an NL-only league a good keeper?
I think Marcum was somewhat exposed in the 2nd half of 2011.
Im not sure if it was because he threw a career high in innings or what, but (if this is H2H) hes not someone I would want to rely upon come playoff time as my #1 or even my #2.
The stats back up the fact that hes a much worse pitcher from August on, than for the first few months of the season:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=6204&position=P&season=0
That said, I suppose given that its NL only he would be drafted before the 8th round next year. so you should be getting decent value if you keep him
14 team mixed roto 4×4 $260, 11keepers auction draft.
Posey 3
Andrus 10
Sandoval 16
Heyward 8
Hosmer 3
Ackley 3
Moustakas 3
Jennings 3
J. Zimmerman 1
Trumbo 9
Werth 9
Sizemore 11
Sands 3
Tabata 5
F. Francisco 7
– 12-team A.L.-only auction ($260) league w/23-man rosters and 17-man reserve.
– 15 keepers permitted
– salaries rise for two (+$5) and three-year (+$10) contracts if kept beyond a third year.
– keepers can include up to 5 rookie-eligible who can be placed on reserve and whose salaries don’t count towards the cap.
Definite keepers:
Hosmer $15 (3-year contract raises salary from $5)
Moreland $4 (outfield eligible in our league)
M. Adams $1
Colby Lewis $4
F. Paulino $2
J. Walden $1
Jose Valverde $31 (established closer go for $30 to $45 in our auctions)
Keeper if signs with A.L. team
Yu Darvish (rookie eligible)
Possible keepers/ Established players
D. Pedroia $35
I. Kinsler $31
M. Young $32
T. Hunter $22
AJ Pierzynski $10
J. Lester $31
C. Sabbathia $40
Possible Keepers/possible starters
Kyle Seager $3
T. Plouffe $2
H. Noesi $5
Possible keepers/rookie eligible
Brandon Guyer
D. Hultzen
Taijuan Walker
Alex Liddi
Nick Franklin
Mike Montgomery
Jurickson Profar
Depending whether Darvish is posted and signs with an A.L. squad, I’ll have 7 or 8 keeper spots left, and who gets them depends partly upon who wins starting jobs in March. That said, I think the most likely top 8 are:
(1) Kinsler $31
(2) Pedroia $35
(3) Guyer (rookie eligible and I control for two more years without extending contract)
(4) Hultzen (rookie eligible and I control for two more years without extending contract)
(5) Franklin (rookie eligible and I control for two more years without extending contract)
(6) Plouffe (ss-eligible)
(7) Walker (rookie eligible and I control for two more years without extending contract)
(8) Profar is the best prospect of the bunch but I’d have to carry him in 2012 and 2013 in the hope he starts in 2014 as a 21-year-old.
I’d also try to trade Young whose age and BABIP suggest he will regress in 2012. Other trade bait would be Lester, Sabathia and Valverde.
Your thoughts?
Posey, Hosmer, Ackley, Jennings, Heyward, Werth, Zimmermann, Sandoval, Moose, Trumbo, Andrus
WRONG REPLY THREAD?
I was answering Red23’s question, which you replied to.
Jose Bautista performed significantly worse in the 2nd half…should I be worried?
even though it was worse than his first half, he still posted a .900 OPS and a wOBA above .400, not to mention an ISO over .270
His BB% was also pretty consistent, hovering around 20% for the entire season.
those numbers are the elite of the elite, regardless of his super human performance prior.
The only thing that was even mildly concerning at all is that his that K rate spiked over his last couple months.
and fwiw, June was his worst month all season, if arbitrary endpoints interest you.
Thoughts/projections for Tim Lincecum in 2012? His BB/9 continues to increase while his K/9 drops….worried at all?
The trends are concerning. If they continue, he would be near 8.5 K/9, 3.75 BB/9 for 2012. Draft/bid accordingly. If he improves on those numbers, enjoy the extra stats.
will be playing in keeper auction league for first time in
2012, any suggestions on whether offense should be priority over pitching or vice verse? we can keep up to
3 with keeper tax increase each yr.10 team league roto
Practice with auctions before the draft. There are tons of hints. Shandler’s book has tons of hints, so it is worth the $20.
Have fun.
The traditional recommendation is to spend 70% of your budget on hitters or about $182 of a $260 budget. The reason for this is that as a whole pitchers are less consistent from year-to-year and more prone to injury. In your auction, nominate better starting pitchers, especially those who stats suggest a drop-off in the coming year, and let your opponents waste their money.
Many thanks for taking these questions. Who’s the better fantasy prospect (keeper league, 4×4) — Profar or Gose. In real baseball, you’d have to pick Profar. In fantasy, Gose has much more SB potential, maybe a tad more power, and he’s probably a year closer to the majors than Profar. With maybe 30 more SBs annualy than Profar, Gose looks like he has the higher fantasy ceiling. Profar, on the other hand, has a higher floor (i.e., Gose might not develop his hit tool enough), plays the scarcer position (SS, or possibly 2B if Andrus mans SS), and will likely hit for a higher average. Overall, Gose is a bigger risk, but even considering that, is he the better fantasy prospect? And what 4×4 stats should we expect from these two intriguing prospects?
Profar. Mike Newman just looked at him and projected his floor near the a top 6 SS in the league
Gose can’t steal 1B. He looks to have a 30% K% by the time he is in the majors. Most of his power is based on 2B and 3B.
Who are your top 3 Rookie of the Year guys from each league?
is matt moore expected to be in majors for 2012 or minors to start?
So far, in the minors. The Rays are conservative in their promotion of talent. Players such as Longoria and Jennings were kept down in part to delay when their service time starts clicking. Even more telling, both Hellickson and Davis pitched a similar number of innings as did Moore their first year in AAA (50 to 60 innings) and both not only started the following year in AAA, they pitched substantial innings there — 117 and 158, respectively. Both were also 24 when promoted. Moore will be 22 next April.
In my 12-team, H2H mixed league (which I won this season) we keep 10.
Definite keepers are Carlos Santana, Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, David Price, and Zack Greinke.
For the final spot, my options are: Chase Utley, David Ortiz, JJ Hardy, or perhaps (though I’m not fond of the idea) a closer. From my group of Storen, Bell, Kimbrell, and Putz, Kimbrel would be the guy.
My gut says Utley. Any advice?
I’d go Utley there. The only other guy I would consider is Kimbrel.
In deep 20 team mixed league, who would you say is better long-term keeper, Craig Allen or Domonic Brown?
Err… Allen Craig that is…
Craig, though it is a debatable question. Craig is already providing quality power and average and his minor league record suggests he will continue to do so. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get. He’s not likely to improve much more as he’ll turn 27 next season.
The argument for Brown is his age and room for growth. He is certainly the more likely of the two to improve. He has the higher ceiling as someone with potential for power and speed but also a lower floor.
If your time horizon is five years or less, I’d go with Craig.
Why do you call the offseason positional rankings “keeper rankings” when they don’t even attempt to incorporate value? Why not just call them “offseason positional rankings” like I did above?
Based on average draft position from the previous year, would Brett Lawrie be a better 3B option than David Wright? Lawrie would be drafted to my team in the 20th round whereas Wright would be in the 3rd round. I can keep either player for as long as I want. It’s a 12 team 3 OF league using OBP instead of AVG.
Thanks everyone! Sorry if we didn’t get to your questions but we’ll do this again.