Every season brings with it a new crop of breakouts; some are real, while some are mirages. Oftentimes, a “breakout season” ends up being that player’s career year, and I think we saw that with several players this year. What I’m going to do today is just briefly touch on three players that I think played themselves into unreasonable expectations for 2015.

Danny Santana

I really like Santana. In fact, I really like everyone I’m writing about in this column, I just see significant gaps between their actual skill level and perceived 2015 fantasy value. Santana is pretty much the posterboy for this mindset, as I was thoroughly impressed by the 23-year-old this year. I think he has a future as a very valuable utility knife, he’s just not a top-five — or likely even top-ten — fantasy shortstop.

Santana was indeed a top-five fantasy shortstop from the moment he took over as the Twins’ leadoff hitter at the beginning of June — he was ranked No. 10 overall for the season, but was easily top-five from June on. His lowest on-base plus slugging in any given month this year was actually in June, when he put up a .773 OPS. Aside from that month, he was well into the .800s all year.

The problem is, Santana probably won’t be a top-ten fantasy shortstop next year, because he was pretty clearly playing well over his head this year. Through 692 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, Santana hit two home runs. This year in the majors, he hit seven in 430 PA.

I believe in the speed, and think he can be a 20-25 steal guy annually, although I’ll be curious to see if he can replicate the success rate of his 20-for-24 mark from this season. From 2011-2013, Santana stole 71 bases, but was also caught stealing a somewhat startling 39 times.

I’m clearly not buying the power, and he’ll likely never pile up the runs like he did this year, either. While his .319 batting average this year was very impressive, this is a career .273 minor-league hitter in 2,352 PA. His batting average on balls in play in the majors was .405. Furthermore, his ugly plate discipline (4.4% BB-rate, 22.8% K-rate) is uninspiring, to put it mildly.

I think most of you came into this column knowing that Santana isn’t quite the player he looked like this year, but keep in mind when planning for 2015 that he played above his actual talent level in nearly every category this season. Santana is a classic regression candidate in just about every way possible.

Josh Harrison

The 27-year-old Harrison is much the same story as Santana, in that he likely played above his head in many ways this season. It’s not that he’d never shown power before, it’s that he had never shown much over-the-fence power. Harrison has always produced his fair share of doubles and triples, keeping his isolated power well above .100 for most of his minor- and major-league career.

However, coming into 2014, Harrison had never hit more than seven homers in any given year of his professional career. Whether Harrison’s 2014 approach is sustainable or not is one question, but it’s certainly fair to look at his 13 homers — nearly twice his previous career high in the majors or minors — as a bit of a fluke.

Furthermore, if/when his .353 BABIP from 2014 regresses, he doesn’t have the plate discipline to compensate. Harrison’s 4.0% walk rate this year was actually a massive improvement from his career 2.6% walk rate coming into the season, and it was still awfully low. This all, of course, means fewer opportunities to steal bases and score runs.

Like Santana, I think Harrison has a long, productive major-league career ahead of him as a super-utility type, but I fear we’ve seen his best season.

Johnny Cueto

I’m not going to get too long-winded about Cueto, as Mike Petriello wrote a great column on him just a couple weeks ago. I’m just going to throw my own two cents in. Seeing as Cueto has maintained a sub-3.00 ERA for four years now, I’m obviously not referring to his season as a “breakout” — Cueto’s breakout came in 2011, and it was legit. It’s hard to doubt that he’s a truly elite fantasy commodity, but it doesn’t take a genius to know that we’re probably not going to see his career-high 8.94 K/9 strikeout rate again.

Cueto didn’t really do anything all that different to explain why a guy with a career 7.30 K/9 in nearly a thousand innings coming into 2014 suddenly started striking out a batter per inning. Which is why I just can’t trust it at all. As Mike pointed out in the above-linked column, Cueto generated a ton of whiffs with his change this year, but his overall 9.8% swinging strike rate wasn’t far off his career mark of 9.1%.

Batters swung at 35.6% of Cueto’s pitches outside the zone, a career high, and he threw more first-pitch strikes (62.9%) than ever before. However, just like the change-up whiff rate, both of those marks were very minor improvements on the numbers he’s been putting up for the last few years. I guess I can explain why Cueto suddenly spiked his strikeout rate; he was just a little bit better than he usually is in a few different ways, and the sum of those parts was a career-high strikeout rate.

This year was pretty much the idealized version of an already-great pitcher. I just can’t quite see him ever again having as much fantasy value as he did in 2014.

The curtain has not yet come down on the 2014 regular season, but if you’re like me, flushed out of the playoffs with not a whole lot to do except look ahead to next year, you’re probably already mulling over your keepers. For me, no one quite draws my eye like Travis d’Arnaud, who I took in the last round of my 12-team, mixed H2H single-catcher league as a stasher and rode through what’s been a roller coaster-like season for him.

A keeper backstop is an uncommon and risky venture. Catchers, after all, get hurt. They don’t steal bases. They don’t hit for a high average. It’s a rare bird who notches more than 20 home runs, and rarer still the ones who knock in more than 80 RBIs. It’s a position that typically offers a terrible return on investment, which makes keepers a premium commodity — especially when they come at a post-hype price tag.
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If you use large samples and go looking for pitchers with many different plus pitches by whiff type that aren’t yet fully appreciated by the masses, you’ll get guys that we’ve been talking about all year here: Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards, Homer Bailey, Jake Arrieta, and Marcus Stroman, to name a few.

But if you relax the samples a bit — in this case down to thirty pitches thrown per category — you get some names that might be interesting to dynasty leaguers looking to the future, or deep leaguers looking for a sneaky late-season play. Or even mixed leaguers looking for names to stash for next year.

So here are a few interesting pitchers that have at three non-fastball pitches that qualify as ‘good’ by the benchmarks set by Jeff Zimmerman and I.

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With the trade deadline passed in ottoneu, the only way to improve your roster – for now or the future – through free agent auctions and waiver claims, which means cutting players, rather than trading them. In some cases, this is easy. That $37 Allen Craig you picked up at auction last spring, expecting a bounce back (one which I, myself, expected) is probably not hard to cut loose right now.

But what about the overpriced stars you plan to cut in the off-season but who are still productive? The problem here is that while a $60 Giancarlo Stanton might not be worth a keeping at $62 next year, if you cut him, another owner can start an auction and someone could end up paying him as little as $32 next year.

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There are a few exciting names up today. You’ve got your Maikel Franco in Philly, your Joc Pederson in Los Angeles and your Daniel Norris in Toronto. They’ve been called up to the bigs! But, due to innings limits on young arms, and roster crunches on teams now as much as 50% larger, it’s fair to ask. Will any of these youngsters play regularly?

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With trade deadlines coming up at the end end of the month, we are are going to publish some 2015 hitter projections to help owners make more informed decisions.  (Pitchers maybe later in the weak – I hate dealing with Saves and Wins so it may just be ERA, K, and WHIP). These are projections, just projections … an estimate of how a hitter will perform in 2015. The list should give owners a decent starting point when setting keepers or last minute trades for the next year.

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Another one bit the dust yesterday. Troy Tulowitzki is out for the remainder of the season and will have hip surgery tomorrow. He’s just the latest in a deep pool of injured keepers. If you’re looking to stock up on Grade A goodies for 2015 before your fantasy trade deadline, then you may want to target these disabled stars. Especially if your team is out of the running.

It should be pretty easy to understand why trading for injured keepers can be advantageous. A fair trade, by definition, is balanced. Usually, if you’re trying to trade non-keepers for keepers, you have to offer a lot more win-now talent than you get back in win-later value. Depending on the precedents in your league, the cost of a keeper can be very high indeed. This can be doubly true late in trade season when all the best keepers have already been acquired.

When trading for an injured player, you’re replacing your league’s fantasy replacement level, i.e. whoever your rival picked up off the wire. There is a lesser burden on you to provide over the top statistics. If you want to acquire that $20 Paul Goldschmidt from a contender, your non-keeper $60 Miguel Cabrera should more than do the trick. If Goldschmidt were healthy, your offer of Cabrera would probably be declined along these lines, “Cabrera might be five percent better than Goldschmidt over the rest of the season, but that’s not nearly enough to give up on his keeper value.”

Since Goldy is injured, your rival has the choice of selling or trying to compete with a Kennys Vargas type. We’ve all been in that position, it’s uncomfortable.

Now that we’ve discussed the premise, let’s quickly cover eight injured, potential keepers.

Troy Tulowitzki – COL: The Rockies shortstop was considered a surprise trade candidate at the deadline, but he’s not going anywhere now that he’s injured. Someday, he might have a fully healthy season, but I don’t think you’ll have a hard time convincing anyone to sell him at a discount. He probably costs a first round pick or big bucks to keep. Those in snake draft leagues can try to increase his value by layering first rounders. If you’re able to keep Tulo, Goldschmidt, and Andrew McCutchen with your round 1-3 picks, you realize some value even though you’re also paying the highest price possible.

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI: He’s expected to miss the remainder of the season with a broken hand. His owners have probably been shopping him for about a week. Since he was relatively untouted when he broke out a couple years ago, he might be cheap in your league. In which case, pony up and acquire him. He’ll be a pricey option in most leagues, so the same thoughts apply as with Tulo. It was a freak injury, so don’t worry too much.

Andrew McCutchen – PIT: He’s expected to be back in short order, but remind your possible trade partner that oblique injuries can be tricky. An explosive player like McCutchen relies heavily on his core, so nobody should be surprised if he re-injures himself. With the fantasy trade deadline on the way, your job is to convince a rival that they’re better served with a “sure thing” like Justin Upton.

Masahiro Tanaka – NYY: Here’s a scary one. He threw fastballs from flat ground yesterday, and there’s chatter about a late 2014 return. I worry we’ll see the same thing we witnessed with Cliff Lee. If Tanaka ends up needing Tommy John surgery, he’ll miss all of 2015. Make sure that risk is priced into your acquisition cost.

George Springer – HOU: He’s taking very slow steps back from his injured quad. While he’s an example of a dirt cheap keeper in most leagues, you might want to remind his owner of the downside to prospect breakouts. Springer’s blend of skills is relatively unique, but plenty of guys burst onto the scene, rake for a bit, and promptly disappear. It could still happen with Springer given his crazy strikeout rate.

Jose Fernandez – MIA: Odds are, if his owner wanted to sell Fernandez, they probably would have by now. Still, I know I’ve been failing to deal Fernandez in one keeper league, so opportunities must still exist. He’s probably pretty cheap, but we’re also penciling in a May return and lesser performance for the 2015 season. His real value probably crops up in 2016, and I don’t often advocate planning that far ahead. Still, he’s a potentially very elite pitcher who might be available in return for a good non-keeper. I’ve been targeting guys like Darvish and Hamels with no luck (I’m also offering an extra tidbit in the form of Odrisamer Despaigne or Jeff Locke – it’s a very deep pitching league).

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR: EE has shown some signs and symptoms of being injury prone. He’s begun his rehab assignment for Toronto, so he could contribute again soon. Like with McCutchen, your hope to acquire him is to convince his owner that the risk of a relapse merits bringing on somebody who’s healthy.

Jason Kipnis – CLE: Unlike the others on this list, Kipnis is on the active roster and playing every day. He’s also banged up with an oblique injury that he claims has sapped his power. Kipnis owners might be happy to convert him into a different second baseman depending on their needs. Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler are two that jump to mid. He’s a five category talent when healthy, which always makes for a good building block.

Parting Thoughts

There are other injured players who could make good keepers. Michael Wacha is out there. He’s just a small adjustment away from elite performance in my opinion. For owners in ottoneu, guys on the 60 day disabled list like Avisail Garcia make for good $1 targets. Ultimately, it’s up to you to evaluate which guys are keepers under your league’s framework. Targeting injured players is just one way to make it a little easier to bulk up on keeper talent.

Alternate Title: Publicly Reviewing My Boss’ Work

A couple days ago, Eno wrote about his decision to shop his $49 Mike Trout in an ottoneu experts league. Said Eno:

I bought Mike Trout for $10 in 2012. He brought me two top-three finishes in the ottoneu experts league. But I was not up to the challenge, and now he’s $49 and my team is 8th. I see no other option but to sell Mike Trout.

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I bought Mike Trout for $10 in 2012. He brought me two top-three finishes in the ottoneu experts league. But I was not up to the challenge, and now he’s $49 and my team is 8th. I see no other option but to sell Mike Trout.

It’s utterly depressing.

It’s also utterly exhilarating.

The packages I’m seeing! They are delightful. I thought I’d break down the two best packages before I hit the accept button. Even if you aren’t in ottoneu, you may find my process interesting. Or abhorrent.

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I have been a fairly regular advocate of targeting injured players in keeper and dynasty leagues. To a team competing, they are no better than a prospect, but to a team building for the future, they are far more likely to pan out.

A few weeks ago, Prince Fielder was cut in the original ottoneu league and re-signed for $24. He is a free agent in the FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League. And I am in the midst of trade talks around him in a non-ottoneu dynasty league. And I am really not sure what to make of the Ranger 1B.
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